And this time, it's in Paris.

這一次，是在巴黎。

But the Olympics is a lot more than just this and this and this.

但奧運的意義遠不止這些。

It's an extremely expensive undertaking, in many cases, causing more harm than good to its host city.

這是一項耗資巨大的工程，在許多情況下對主辦城市弊大於利。

And I covered it before.

我以前也說過。

Cities are dropping out because they were spending tens of billions of dollars on the hosting process.

城市退出是因為它們在主辦過程中花費了數百億美元。

This chart shows a host city's initial budget versus what they ended up spending.

該圖顯示了主辦城市的初始預算與最終支出的對比。

They're quite different, like this or this or this.

它們截然不同，比如這個、這個或這個。

The London 2012 Olympics ended up being nearly four times more than what they initially set out to spend.

2012 年倫敦奧運會的花費最終比他們最初設定的花費高出近四倍。

That's detrimental to a host's budget, especially problematic for cities and countries with an already weak economy and extreme inequities,

這對東道主的預算是有害的，尤其是對於經濟已經疲軟、極度不公平的城市和國家來說，問題就更大了，

like the state of Paris, which was the result of a heavy debt load in 2016, or Greece, whose debt crisis became so catastrophic, it was put on fiscal monitoring by the European Commission just a year after hosting the Games.

比如巴黎在 2016 年就因沉重的債務負擔而陷入困境，希臘的債務危機也變得非常嚴重，在舉辦奧運僅一年後就被歐盟委員會置於財政監控之下。

But Paris is looking to be a bit different.

但巴黎看起來有些不同。

The city budgeted $9.7 billion, spending about half on infrastructure and the other half on operating costs.

該市的預算為 97 億美元，其中約一半用於基礎設施建設，另一半用於營運成本。

And so far, it's looking good.

到目前為止，情況還不錯。

We expect the Paris 2024 Summer Games would be the cheapest of the 21st century because the needs were really limited.

我們預計 2024 年巴黎夏季運動會將是 21 世紀最便宜的運動會，因為需求確實有限。

So overruns were not as high as previous games.

超支率沒有以前的奧運那麼高。

So how did France pull it off?

那麼，法國是如何做到的呢？

And can they become the blueprint for future host cities?

它們能否成為未來主辦城市的藍圖？

This is Thomas Bach, the president of the International Olympic Committee.

這位是國際奧林匹克委員會主席托馬斯-巴赫。

It's a clip from 2017 when he announced Paris as the host city of the 2024 Summer Games.

這是 2017 年他宣佈巴黎為 2024 年夏季奧運會主辦城市時的一個片段。

We're all therefore delighted to see that your plans include a record number of existing and temporary venues.

我們都很高興地看到，你們的計劃包括了數量創紀錄的現有場館和臨時場館。

The key here is the record number of existing and temporary venues.

關鍵在於現有場館和臨時場館的創紀錄數量。

Paris's initial budget was set to $6.97 billion.

巴黎的初步預算定為 69.7 億美元。

When it officially won in 2017, it revised its budget to $8.1 billion.

2017 年正式獲勝時，它將預算修訂為 81 億美元。

The city ended up with $9.7 billion, still well below the past five Olympics.

該市最終獲得了 97 億美元，仍遠低於過去的五屆奧運會。

Olympic budgets are split into two parts.

奧運預算分為兩部分。

Operating costs and infrastructure costs.

營運成本和基礎設施成本。

Operating costs are typically the more manageable of the two.

營運成本通常是兩者中較容易控制的。

It's essentially the necessary cost to get the games up and running, like security, transportation, medical services, customs, immigration and more.

這主要是為奧運會的舉辦和運行所需的必要費用，如安保、交通、醫療服務、海關、移民等。

Paris was already strong in many of those areas.

巴黎在這些領域中的許多方面已經非常強大。

The IOC set an operating budget of $4.8 billion as a result.

國際奧委會是以制定了 48 億美元的營運預算。

Infrastructure costs have always been a bit of a thorn in the side of host cities in the past.

過去，基礎設施成本一直是主辦城市的一塊心病。

Prior cities have overspent by billions of dollars on construction of new venues, Olympic villages and building new or expanding existing public infrastructure for the games.

以前的城市在為奧運會建造新場館、奧運村和新建或擴建現有公共基礎設施方面超支數十億美元。

To get all of that construction done before the opening ceremony starts, it becomes an expensive race against time.

要在開幕式開始前完成所有的施工，就必須與時間賽跑，耗資巨大。

In Paris's case, construction costs were manageable at $4.9 billion. 95% of the venues were already in place, only 3% were built.

就巴黎而言，49 億美元的建設成本是可控的。95% 的場館已經建成，只建造了 3%。

There is the Olympics village that is the largest project for the game.

奧運村是奧運會最大的項目。

And you have a new swimming pool in Saint-Denis.

還在聖德尼新建了一個游泳池。

I think it's a bit less than $200 million.

我想應該不到 2 億美元。

And then you have a new sport facility within the city limit of Paris.

此外，巴黎市內還有一個新的體育設施。

The Olympics village will be turned into housing and student accommodation.

奧運村將被改造成住房和學生宿舍。

They expect to have 2,800 units after the games.

他們預計比賽結束後將有 2 800 臺設備。

So that would be a huge boost for the local areas.

這將極大地促進當地的發展。

You may be wondering who pays for all of this.

你可能想知道誰來支付這一切。

It's generally split into private and public funding.

一般分為私人資金和公共資金。

It's when the weight of public funding becomes too heavy that a host fails, like in Rio and Athens cases.

當公共資金變得過於沉重時，東道主就會失敗，比如里約和雅典的案例。

For Paris and France's case, it hasn't been so, at least for now.

巴黎和法國的情況並非如此，至少目前如此。

That's because 96% of the total operating budget is funded by things like ticket sales and TV and marketing deals.

這是因為總營運預算的 96% 來自門票銷售、電視和營銷交易等方面。

Paris won its bid in 2017 amid a time of immense turmoil for the IOC.

2017 年，巴黎在國際奧委會的巨大動盪中贏得了申辦權。

Up until then, every Olympic since the 1960s had run over its budget by an average of 172%.

在此之前，自 1960 年代以來，每屆奧運的預算平均超支 172%。

Rio is perhaps the most eye-popping example, at 352% over budget.

里約也許是最令人瞠目的例子，超出預算 352%。

A problematic subway line that was supposed to connect vans to the Olympic venues cost the city about $3 billion.

一條連接奧運場館的地鐵線路問題重重，耗資約 30 億美元。

It was overbuilt by 25%.

它的建造量超出了 25%。

The renovation project of a neighborhood cost $4.2 billion, and neither were on time.

一個小區的翻新工程耗資 42 億美元，但都沒有按時完工。

Brazil hosted the games as it went into its deepest recession in nearly a century.

巴西舉辦奧運會時，正值巴西陷入近一個世紀以來最嚴重的經濟衰退。

The same reason why it didn't make sense to build them before the Olympics is the reason why after the Olympics they're underutilized or unused.

奧運前建造這些設施不合理的原因與奧運後這些設施利用不足或閒置的原因如出一轍。

What are they doing?

他們在做什麼？

First of all, they cost hundreds of millions of dollars to build.

首先，它們的建造成本高達數億美元。

Secondly, they cost tens of millions of dollars to maintain over time.

其次，它們的長期維護費用高達數千萬美元。

These so-called white elephants are an ongoing problem for host cities.

這些所謂的「大白象」是主辦城市一直面臨的問題。（大白象指華而不實的東西）

As we saw earlier, a big part of the Paris bid was its... - record number of existing and temporary venues.

正如我們之前看到的，巴黎申辦奧運的一大亮點是其現有場館和臨時場館的創紀錄數量。

While Paris hasn't avoided the usual overspending, it's a fraction of what other cities deviated from their original budget.

雖然巴黎並沒有避免通常的超支，但這只是其他城市偏離最初預算的一小部分。

The message of the government has always been this will be cheap games, the cheapest in recent history, and they will not burden our public deficit or our debt and will benefit everyone.

政府發出的資訊一直是，這將是一場廉價的比賽，是近代史上最廉價的比賽，不會給我們的公共赤字或債務造成負擔，並將使每個人受益。

If you compare the size of the budget to French GDP, it's only 0.3 percent.

如果將預算規模與法國國內生產總值相比，僅為 0.3%。

So that's rather limited and it's much lower than, let's say, Athens in 2004 that represented a larger share of Greek GDP.

這個數字相當有限，而且比 2004 年雅典佔希臘國內生產總值更大份額的數字要低得多。

Paris is also uniquely positioned to host a big event, with its 100 million annual visitors accounting for 7 to 8 percent of its GDP.

巴黎在舉辦大型活動方面也具有得天獨厚的優勢，每年 1 億遊客佔巴黎國內生產總值的 7% 至 8%。

Paris has an extensive metro network, but also many train lines.

巴黎擁有龐大的地鐵網絡和多條火車線路。

And I think this was a really positive for the games, meaning that most people, tourists, will use the transportation infra to go to the different venues.

我認為這對運動會來說是非常積極的，這意味著大多數人、遊客都會使用交通基礎設施前往不同的場館。

With mounting criticism, the IOC adjusted its bidding process.

面對越來越多的責備，國際奧委會調整了招標程序。

In December 2014, the IOC released the Olympic Agenda 2020.

2014 年 12 月，國際奧委會發布了《2020 年奧林匹克議程》。

The goal?

目標是什麼？

To make hosting easier on cities.

讓城市更容易託管。

What Agenda 2020 did at the time was to restate a policy or policies that the IOC started in the 1990s.

《2020 年議程》當時所做的是重申國際奧委會在 1990 年代開始實施的一項或多項政策。

And the intention was to promote financial security for the host city and also to promote sustainability.

這樣做的目的是為了促進主辦城市的財政安全，同時也是為了促進可持續發展。

Promoted a little bit of greater flexibility on the part of the IOC in terms of allowing host cities to use existing venues rather than to build new venues.

促進國際奧委會在允許主辦城市使用現有場館而不是建造新場館方面有更大的靈活性。

And that was, at least on the margin, a good thing for the host cities.

至少從表面上看，這對主辦城市來說是件好事。

Under the Olympic Agenda 2020 and its 2016 amendment, the new norm, if a city needs new venues, new construction must have long-term legacy post-Olympics.

根據《2020 年奧林匹克議程》及其 2016 年修正案，即新的規範，如果一個城市需要新的場館，新的建設必須在奧運會後有長期的遺產。

The overall economic and environmental impact was not changed very much.

對經濟和環境的總體影響變化不大。

And as a result of that, they continue to have more and more problems and, in fact, worsening problems with getting potential host cities to actually express an interest in hosting.

其結果是，在爭取潛在主辦城市真正表示有興趣主辦方面，他們繼續遇到越來越多的問題，事實上，問題越來越嚴重。

It finally got to the point in 2017 where five cities dropped out of the competition to host the 2024 Games, the ones that are about to happen.

到 2017 年，終於有五個城市退出了 2024 年奧運會的競爭，也就是即將舉辦的 2024 年奧運會。

Only Paris and Los Angeles remained in the competition.

只有巴黎和洛杉磯仍在競爭中。

In 2017, it was the first time in IOC history that two hosts were chosen for back-to-back Olympics.

2017 年，這是國際奧委會歷史上首次連續兩屆奧運會選擇兩個東道主。

By locking in two cities at once, the IOC wouldn't have to worry about facing another mad dash to land a host after cities dropped their bids.

如果一次鎖定兩個城市，國際奧委會就不必擔心在各城市放棄申辦之後，再次面臨瘋狂的申辦。

When you have a fully developed city like Paris or Los Angeles hosting the Games, and they already have the vast majority of the venues, this is obviously a smaller problem.

如果是巴黎或洛杉磯這樣的發達城市舉辦奧運會，而且他們已經擁有了絕大多數場館，這個問題顯然會小一些。

And that's good news. That's good news.

這是一個好消息。這是好消息。

In 2019, the selection process changed altogether, this time by closing off the bidding process.

2019 年，遴選程序徹底改變，這一次是關閉招標程序。

While Paris is considered to be one of the cheapest modern Olympics, it all hinges on what kind of economic windfall the Games will see.

雖然巴黎被認為是最便宜的現代奧運會之一，但一切都取決於奧運會將帶來什麼樣的經濟效益。

While the IOC estimates that the Games will generate $7.3 to $12.1 billion, other estimates are much more modest.

雖然國際奧委會估計奧運會將產生 73 億至 121 億美元的收入，但其他方面的估計要小得多。

One study estimates GDP growth of 0.5% in the third quarter before falling back to 0.1% for the following three months.

一項研究估計，第三季度國內生產總值增長 0.5%，隨後三個月回落至 0.1%。

S&P Global projects Paris tourism and spending related to Olympic activity will grow tax income by 5%.

標準普爾全球公司預計，巴黎旅遊業和與奧運活動相關的消費將使稅收收入增長 5%。

Paris projects its 2024 revenue to hit over $200 million, about an 85% jump from 2023.

巴黎預計其 2024 年的收入將超過 2 億美元，比 2023 年猛增約 85%。

But being a major tourism hub and holding the world's biggest sporting event may have some adverse side effects,

但是，作為一個重要的旅遊中心，舉辦世界上最大的體育賽事可能會帶來一些不利的副作用，

like increased pressure on Paris' already busy metro lines, tourism not being high as expected, or security costs becoming increasingly more expensive as the Games progress.

比如增加巴黎本已繁忙的地鐵線路的壓力，旅遊人數沒有預期的高，或者隨著奧運會的進行，安保費用變得越來越昂貴。

The main pain point would be the transportation network because many people would go at the same place at the same time for the different competitions.

主要的痛點是交通網絡，因為許多人會在同一時間前往同一地點參加不同的比賽。

And this could add pressure to the network that is already saturated.

這可能會給已經飽和的網絡增加壓力。

The transportation authorities said they would add extra capacity on metro lines and train lines.

交通部門表示，他們將增加地鐵和火車線路的運力。

But maybe this won't be sufficient to absorb a higher ridership so we could see network disruption from time to time.

但這可能不足以吸收更多的乘客，是以我們可能會不時看到網絡中斷。

I think this is expected.

我認為這在意料之中。

Air France estimates a loss of about $200 million from June to August as traffic to and from Paris lags behind other major European cities due to the Olympics.

法航估計，由於奧運期間往返巴黎的客流量落後於歐洲其他主要城市，6 月至 8 月將損失約 2 億美元。

And some tourists are avoiding the city altogether.

而一些遊客則完全避開了這座城市。

But economists like Zimbalist believes the biggest risk to Paris' cheap budget is security.

但像 Zimbalist 這樣的經濟學家認為，巴黎廉價預算面臨的最大風險是安全問題。

They say that the security costs in the budget are approximately $340 million.

他們說，預算中的安保費用約為 3.4 億美元。

I don't think that number is realistic.

我認為這個數字不太現實。

They have already admitted to having more than 50,000 security personnel who will be working the Games.

他們已經承認將有 5 萬多名安保人員為奧運會工作。

But beyond direct personnel costs, we know that there are a lot of other costs.

但是，除了直接的人員成本，我們知道還有很多其他成本。

You're involving and you're engaging heavy military equipment for the Games.

參與其中，為運動會提供重型軍事裝備。

You're buying equipment to contest any drones that are being used by terrorists or other people.

要購買設備，以對抗恐怖分子或其他人使用的無人機。

You're doing all sorts of things that go way beyond the security costs.

法國所做的一切遠遠超出了安全成本。

And previous Olympic Games have been known to spend over a billion, up to $2 billion in security.

據瞭解，歷屆奧運的安保費用都超過 10 億美元，最高達 20 億美元。

So they're giving us a number of $340, $350 million.

他們給我們的數字是 3.4 億至 3.5 億美元。

And it's just not a realistic statement of what the security costs are.

而且，對安全成本的說法也不切實際。

The Olympics have their host cities locked up until 2034.

奧運的主辦城市已鎖定至 2034 年。

So far, each city's plan will get an insight into whether or not the new guidelines are sustainable.

到目前為止，每個城市的計劃都將深入瞭解新準則是否具有可持續性。

Paris and L.A. will follow similar blueprints with little to no building needed.

巴黎和洛杉磯也將遵循類似的藍圖，幾乎不需要任何建設。

Brisbane in 2032 will test how flexible the IOC's new recommendations truly are.

2032 年的布里斯班將檢驗國際奧委會新建議的真正靈活性。

Brisbane will have 11 new venues, with about half being permanent.

布里斯班將新建 11 個場館，其中約一半為永久性場館。

Since the Olympic agenda 2020 and the new norm plans were enacted, the bidding process might be more challenging for potential host cities trying to win the 2036 Games and beyond.

自《2020 年奧林匹克議程》和新的規範計劃頒佈以來，對於試圖贏得 2036 年及以後奧運會的潛在主辦城市來說，申辦過程可能更具挑戰性。

Previous hosts used the Olympics to put their emerging cities on the world stage, showcasing large-scale infrastructure projects in the hopes of attracting tourism and commercial business.

前幾屆東道主利用奧運會將其新興城市推向世界舞臺，展示大型基礎設施項目，希望藉此吸引旅遊業和商業企業。

With decades of overspending from both emerging and established cities, the IOC may avoid picking a city that may need a lot of new infrastructure to host.

幾十年來，無論是新興城市還是老牌城市都在超支，是以國際奧委會可能會避免選擇一個可能需要大量新基礎設施的城市作為主辦城市。

And now that the bidding and selection process is done behind closed doors, bidders won't know who they're up against or even if their bids were seriously considered.

現在，招標和遴選過程是閉門進行的，投標者不知道他們的對手是誰，甚至不知道他們的投標是否被認真考慮過。

Zimbalist believes that the solution for hosting the Olympics may not depend solely on whether or not a host city has the existing infrastructure or the capital to spend on large-scale projects.

Zimbalist 認為，舉辦奧運會的解決方案可能並不完全取決於主辦城市是否擁有現有的基礎設施或用於大型項目的資金。

The real solution, he says, is one central location for the Olympics.

他說，真正的解決辦法是在一箇中心地點舉辦奧運會。

So I think the logical longer-term solution is to have one permanent host for the Winter Games and the Summer Games.

我認為合乎邏輯的長期解決方案是為冬季運動會和夏季運動會設立一個永久性的東道主。

So it doesn't have to, we don't have to rebuild it every time.

我們不必每次都重建它。

And the city would have more and more experience to be able to handle all of the very, very complicated operational and security issues that surround the Olympics.

城市將擁有越來越多的經驗，能夠處理圍繞奧運會的所有非常、非常複雜的營運和安全問題。

Now, that's not an easy thing to do overnight politically, but I think it's important to start discussing that.

現在，要在政治上一蹴而就並非易事，但我認為開始討論這個問題很重要。

Maybe initially you have two or three cities that are in a rotation.

也許一開始你有兩三個城市在輪換。

That's the direction in which I think this whole process should be moving.

這就是我認為整個進程應該前進的方向。