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  • Without further ado, Alexander.

  • Thank you, Tina. Okay. So, hello, everybody.

  • You know it's funny actually to stand here

  • because when I started out with this topic,

  • I got a phone call from somebody who wanted to work with

  • me who is in Geneva and I live just around the corner.

  • We were talking and he said, oh, I would like to fly you over.

  • I asked, fly me over from where? Oh, from California.

  • So why from California I live just beside you.

  • That guy thought that ideas like business

  • models can't come from Switzerland.

  • Ideas and entrepreneurship,

  • they can't come from Switzerland, but you know what?

  • Actually, there are some ideas that come from Switzerland

  • that now with the business model topic that we're going

  • to talk about it went across the world.

  • So, I'm going to talk a little bit about this

  • idea of cracking the code of entrepreneurship,

  • some tools that we can use to talk about business models,

  • design business models and ultimately to test business models, okay?

  • So, I think that until now the tools

  • that we were using were pretty basic.

  • So, you have lots of smart entrepreneurs, I'm pretty sure.

  • Who is an entrepreneur in the room or wants to become one, okay?

  • Who've done a lot of great stuff.

  • But with tools that might not be 100% appropriate, okay?

  • So, one tool that you've definitely heard

  • of is the business plan, right?

  • You may have heard of this sentence here,

  • the famous quote from Steve Blank,

  • "no business plans survives the first contact with customers".

  • So, the first thing you want to do is

  • want to burn your business plan, okay? Because it's a waste of time.

  • Now, planning as such is not wrong,

  • but you got to plan the right thing.

  • So, plans are worthless, but the planning part is important.

  • Now, the question is why do we plan in entrepreneurship?

  • Do we plan how the business is going to look? No.

  • What we actually plan is the search for the

  • business model and once we found one,

  • that's when we start executing on it, okay?

  • That's a pretty big shift from what we've been doing until now.

  • We usually think the idea is the most important at the beginning

  • but it's what you give the shape you give to the idea,

  • how you evolve the idea until you figure out,

  • hey, this could really work and then you execute, okay?

  • That's when you start spending the money.

  • Now, I am pretty excited about tools,

  • conceptual tools but I think we can push it even further,

  • have software-supported tools that can help us in

  • our thinking when it comes to business models.

  • So, I don't think we'll ever replace the creativity,

  • the art in entrepreneurship,

  • but I do think we can enhance this thinking, okay?

  • So, I'll go into that a little bit.

  • Now, I want to talk about three things.

  • First, the concept of business models,

  • so some of you might know the Business Model Canvas.

  • Who has ever heard of the Business Model Canvas? Okay, quite a few.

  • Who has never heard of this?

  • Okay, half-half. So, I'll show a little video of what this is about

  • and then I'll show you what I mean with tools.

  • Tools of entrepreneurship and at the end,

  • I'll go a little bit into the process, okay?

  • Three things, does that sound good? Okay good.

  • Seeing a reaction I should actually leave the room, okay?

  • So, first, we are going to talk about the concept

  • and I'm going to talk about business models,

  • but the question is, hey, what is a business model?

  • What is a business model?

  • I ask this question everywhere in the world,

  • Brazil, Singapore, wherever I go and guess what the answer is?

  • Well, probably as many answers as people in the room,

  • it's like having a set of very many different languages,

  • it's a word we all use quite a lot.

  • Who's never ever used the word business model in this room?

  • Okay, you'd probably be the fourth person

  • in an audience that I talked to. So nobody, right?

  • You all use the word business model,

  • so you should know what it means.

  • But actually it turns out that everybody has a quite

  • a different mental model that we use the same word,

  • but some talk about strategy, some talk about channels,

  • some talk about profit, product, technology,

  • process, and what would be more interesting is if we would have

  • a better discussion about what the business model is, okay?

  • So, if you watch a team talk about business models,

  • say we need to find a business model for our product or you know,

  • an existing company might say we need to reinvent our business model.

  • This is how the discussion is going to look.

  • So, it is going to talk, blah, blah, blah. What? Blah, blah, blah.

  • What?

  • So, smart people in the same room using a lot of words but not understanding

  • each other and this phenomena is called blah blah blah, okay?

  • It's a great book that came out by Dan Roam,

  • you might have heard of Dan Roam who wrote, The Back of the Napkin,

  • his last book in September, it came out, it's called

  • Blah, Blah, Blah: What to Do When Words Don't Work.

  • So, I think when it comes to business models, words are not enough.

  • We need to be able to a, have a shared language,

  • but a visual language that allows us to sketch out

  • business models because when we sketch them out,

  • when we map them out, that's when our discussion becomes clear, okay?

  • That's really important. So, when I started out with this topic

  • that was what I wanted to figure out.

  • How would a language look like a shared visual

  • language to talk about business models?

  • And I started a PhD on the topic and I got a PhD for this title here

  • "The Business Model Ontology" - a proposition into design

  • science approach. I know here some people laughing, right?

  • Because you know that to get a PhD,

  • you need to use words like ontology, right? Then you get a PhD,

  • it's as simple as that, okay?

  • Now, the funny thing is I put this online and people started

  • reading it. They downloaded it. They used it in companies,

  • which means okay, there is something there that

  • people really think is interesting.

  • Now, nobody told me when I started my research and enroll

  • in my PhD that the dissertation would be read, okay.

  • I would have maybe done a better job, okay.

  • So, PhDs are usually made to write and then

  • you have three people who read it but here,

  • this went around the world.

  • Now, I thought, hey, these ideas are interesting for people.

  • So you know what? I want to write in a bit naive way I thought.

  • I want to write a management bestseller.

  • Now, if you know the publishing industry,

  • you know that there is 1 million English books

  • coming out every year. Of those 1 million,

  • 11,000 are business books. So nobody is waiting for 11,001, nobody.

  • So, what we did is we tried to publish

  • the book with an innovative business model and we

  • actually did turn it into a bestseller.

  • So, it's about a quarter million books now circulating around the world,

  • 23 languages and even more important, people are using this stuff, okay?

  • So, this is how the book looked. Who has a book,

  • who has the Business Model Generation book?

  • Okay. For those who don't have one,

  • there are couple in the back after the

  • lecture and you can take them with you, okay?

  • First come first serve.

  • So, the heart the book - for those of you who know it,

  • for those of you don't know it - is this visual language that I was talking about.

  • The Business Model Canvas that allows you to sketch out existing

  • business models or business models that you want to create, okay?

  • Now, what is this language about? It's about nine

  • building blocks. Nine building blocks that allow you to

  • describe or design every business model you can imagine,

  • ultimate possibilities, thousands of alternatives.

  • So, let's watch a little movie,

  • two minutes that will explain what

  • the Business Model Canvas is. If I explain it,

  • it will probably take 15 minutes. So that's why we made a movie

  • so you can get a quick overview of the Business Model Canvas.

  • So nine building blocks, pretty straight forward,

  • the individual building blocks are not new.

  • Probably most of you know every piece of it, right?

  • If you looked that business a little bit you have an idea of what this is.

  • But the important thing here is that we have all nine on one

  • slide or on one poster if we print it out and that we understand how

  • they all fit together. So we get the big picture understanding,

  • not just the product, it's for the engineers in the room products,

  • great products are becoming a commodity. It's the combination

  • between great products and a great business model is going to

  • keep you ahead in competition in the coming decade. So what you

  • really want to understand is how all these pieces fit together

  • and what the best business model could be for your idea.

  • That means you need to search for the right business model, okay.

  • So let's look at an example,

  • we're going to sketch out the business

  • model and when I say sketch out,

  • I literally mean sketching it out with post-it note.

  • So now you know why you have post-it notes.

  • So we're going to work on a little case together, okay.

  • So if we can start distributing the canvas that will be great.

  • So the idea is that we map out all the different pieces and I'll give

  • you some basics here. You never write on a canvas that's a crime, okay.

  • Because God invented post-it note, okay.

  • I don't have any stocks in 3M,

  • but what you really want to do is you want to - for every

  • building block you want to use a post-it notes,

  • so these are a little big so I made them a little bit smaller

  • and why - one for each idea that you have for each customer

  • segment for each channel because then it's mobile,

  • you can put it up, you can discuss,

  • you can take it down or if you have,

  • if you mapped out a business model,

  • let's say you have a product idea you mapped out all the pieces,

  • you want to ask yourself, oh I have two segments here,

  • but what if I took this one away. What's the impact

  • on the rest of the business model? Can I take a

  • channel away; can I take resources away,

  • follow me on this? So it's like a balloon,

  • somebody told me hey the Business Model Canvas is like a balloon,

  • you push in on one side,

  • it will have an impact on the other side. So you

  • can see the relationships between the pieces, okay.

  • So, let's work on a little case and it's end of the day

  • so I thought the best thing we could do is talk about coffee, okay.

  • And we'll talk about coffee because it's a commodities business

  • and there is some interesting stuff going on in this business, okay.

  • And you can learn from any type of business model that has

  • nothing to do with the domain you're in because that's the interesting

  • thing. Not like with products where one product may be not - will

  • not relate to another from one industry to another,

  • but you can learn from the amazing business models that

  • are out there. So we'll look at one and I'll start with

  • a little question from Switzerland where I come from because

  • I have the data there. Question to you is,

  • how much less or more do you think Swiss households pay for coffee

  • consumed at home? So if you look at the last couple of years,

  • do you think we paid 20% less,

  • 20% more for coffee consumed at home what would your guess be,

  • what do you think, some guesses? Plus 50%. Plus 50%,

  • okay courageous guess. Others? Minus 20%. Minus 20%,

  • it's a commodities business, right,

  • pretty straight forward. Other guesses? Plus 200%.

  • Plus 200%, right. I mean, it's Stanford,

  • Silicon Valley we need to be a bit courageous here, right.

  • Yeah, go ahead. I need post-its. You need post-its, okay.

  • How could you be in here without post-its? That's correct, yeah.

  • Turns out that in this commodities business there

  • is one company that could get us in Switzerland and

  • now all around the world it get us to pay 600% to 800%

  • more in a commodities business. That's amazing,

  • particularly if you know that we Swiss

  • we don't throw money out of the window,

  • okay, that's why we have these big secured banks. So the reason

  • is not George Clooney either so George Clooney stands for one brand

  • except in the U.S. George Clooney stands for Nespresso. The anecdote

  • is that the U.S. is the only country where George Clooney does

  • not advertise for Nespresso because if as a TV actor,

  • as an actor in general,

  • you advertise it means you're on the way down, okay.

  • So he doesn't want to do this in the U.S. Now what did Nespresso do?

  • So who's ever had a Nespresso coffee? Okay. Wow! Okay so they're already

  • acquiring entire U.S. that's pretty cool. At the heart of it is a technology.

  • They were the first to invent single portion coffee,

  • where you have the machine, you have aluminum pods,

  • you take the pod, you put it in the machine,

  • you press the button and out comes a

  • very good espresso with crema on top,

  • it's like Milano. It's not like in Finland or other places in

  • the world where the espresso is a bit doubtful. So the results

  • that they had are pretty amazing. So after two decades,

  • it's still one of the fastest growing businesses in the Nestle Empire.

  • Nestle is the biggest food company in the world. It has about 30%

  • growth rates still after two decades for the last 11 years, okay.

  • I know if you're creating a start-up and you want

  • to be Google or Facebook whatever you'll say 30%, ooh, okay.

  • But if you are a company that exist for a while,

  • 30% is pretty good, if you continue that all the time.

  • And it represents now a business of about US$3.2 billion.

  • Question to you is, now this is one product line, okay.

  • The machines, pods is the main business. Question to you is,

  • I want you to work a little bit on the business model.

  • What do you think are the core components of their business model

  • that made them so successful? So you know the technology,

  • machine, pods, but what is it in the business model that

  • turned them in such - into such a successful company?

  • I'll give you about six minutes to work on this idea,

  • in groups of two. So work with your seat neighbor,

  • use the post-it notes, sketch out what you think was relevant,

  • crucial in their business model, let's go, okay.

  • Okay, let's do this together, let's do this together, okay.

  • You didn't expect you'll to have

  • to work at this time of the day, right?

  • But you're dealing with a Swiss here, okay.

  • Now what did you come up with,

  • some ideas, what's crucial in their business

  • model that made them so successful, what do you think, anybody?

  • Yeah, go ahead. So my guess is that they would likely sell the coffee maker

  • itself at cost without making a loss. And I'd guess they would make

  • that back by selling the coffee itself to the customer.

  • Okay, so get the machine into the market and then

  • earn from the pods right? Repetitive sales, right?

  • Great, what else. For a value proposition,

  • you can get a premium coffee without having to leave

  • your house. Right, and you have different flavors,

  • with a different colors of the pods,

  • okay what else? Everything you order online,

  • so you get the machine at your home very easily,

  • it's very low cost. Okay, so interesting.

  • Let's just stick with this for a moment.

  • Where can you buy the machines, the Nespresso machines,

  • what do you think? Where can you buy them? Amazon.

  • Amazon, okay. Everywhere, right, everywhere.

  • Where can you buy the pods? Only through them.

  • Only through them. Why do they make a difference between

  • the machine and the pods? Because once when you own a machine

  • then you'll have to have the pods. Right,

  • you're screwed. Once you have the machine you

  • don't have a choice. So they will use - oh,

  • sorry it's filmed, okay. Now just go beep. In Switzerland they

  • would leave it. So you get the machine into the market and they

  • want as much reach as possible so they're really going to try

  • to push you to buy that. But once you have it you don't have

  • a choice. It's the only pod you can put in there,

  • so they don't need the reach anymore

  • because you will go get the pods, okay? If you want to switch,

  • you need to buy a totally new machine.

  • So, that's the idea behind that. So, let's look at this visually,

  • all the components of their business model.

  • So, let's sketch it out.

  • So, I didn't write any fancy value proposition here. I sketched

  • it out with the strategy of machines and pods.

  • So if you look at what they do within Nespresso machines,

  • they sell them through retail,

  • mainly to households about 85% of their market,

  • little bit to businesses,

  • they would have another sales force here. They sell

  • the machine once and they don't even make it,

  • they work with machine manufacturers because what they're interested

  • in as you correctly pointed out are the pods.

  • So, for the pods, they've a different strategy,

  • they sell them directly through their own channels,

  • started out with mail order and with call centers,

  • then nespresso.com and now you find

  • Nespresso stores all over the world,

  • Champs-Elysees, Fifth Avenue, why do you think they set up stores,

  • it's pretty expensive, you can sell everything through the Internet,

  • why would they do that? Branding. Branding will

  • develop a little bit. Prestige. Prestige,

  • it's a very high-end brand, they ask you for a lot of money,

  • six to eight times more for espresso and you can't

  • establish that only through the Internet,

  • so the similar strategy to Apple,

  • right, building their own stores to create

  • a high-end brand. George Clooney is good,

  • but not enough, okay, you need the stores.

  • So, then you start buying the pods and then have recurring

  • revenues with insanely high margins and all the money

  • goes into their pockets. That's what makes them such

  • a successful company. Now let's look at this side,

  • what did you put up in key resources,

  • what are some of the most important things in their key resources,

  • what did you come up with? Patents. Patents, right?

  • Patents is a key component of their business model.

  • So, the entire business model is built on patents because

  • otherwise anybody else could make pods and push

  • the margins down. The interesting thing is,

  • this year some of the patents are running out.

  • So, it'll be interesting to see how Nespresso is going to evolve

  • the business model because they need to change it,

  • a business model is never finished, okay?

  • What else do we have in the key resources,

  • what else would be important here? Coffee! Yes. Straight forward,

  • but they just want high-end coffee. What else? Give me another one.

  • What else would you put in key resources? Basically if you know,

  • what you do here on the right hand side,

  • you should be able to figure out what you need on

  • the left hand side. Give me another key resource,

  • anybody? What is missing? We have,

  • patents, coffee... Access to an international company.

  • Access to an international company,

  • Nestle is pretty international, yeah, correct.

  • What else? Transportation. Transportation,

  • logistics - that would be more than key activities,

  • absolutely. Capital. Capital,

  • access to capital, maybe it's not so important here. Style.

  • Okay, style, you might want to call it brand. If you're

  • in a consumer business you have no brand,

  • you're dead, okay? And that's expensive to create.

  • So if you want to go in that type of business,

  • you better have this brand, okay? Then key activities,

  • business to consumer distribution marketing production,

  • interesting thing here this was the first time that Nestle

  • sold to households. They were used to sending pallets

  • to retailers. It's the first time they needed to build

  • logistics that sends small boxes to households, okay?

  • And if you know this here on the left hand side,

  • very quickly you can figure out the cost structure.

  • So, on the right hand side,

  • we have a little bit the front stage related to the customer,

  • on the left hand side,

  • we have the back stage that enables the front stage. Okay?

  • See that duality? It's little bit like a mirror.

  • So, why did I choose Nespresso talking at Stanford in the engineering

  • school because there's something you can learn that's really,

  • really important for you. When Nespresso started out,

  • they were so close to going bankrupt.

  • Why? It's exactly the same product,

  • same technology because their business model didn't work,

  • same product, same technology, their business model didn't work.

  • This is how it looked - I'll keep it simple,

  • joint venture with machine manufacturers,

  • so this is the similar piece to before,

  • but they would sell it to offices,

  • to companies through the sales force of the joint venture,

  • through the sales force of the machine

  • manufacturers. Two things didn't work,

  • offices were not interested, and the sales force,

  • they didn't want to sell these small machines. Okay?

  • So, that business model didn't work. Actually they invested a lot of

  • money in this before they moved or pivoted it for use the Silicon Valley

  • term to a new business model. Okay? The only reason why they

  • did it is the board said we produced all these machines; our warehouses

  • are full. We might as well try something else.

  • So, they shifted to a new business model.

  • They actually moved the inventor of this,

  • who was the CEO, back to research where he came from and brought in

  • a new CEO who came up with the business model that we saw. Okay?

  • So, they experimented with that. But they could have

  • done it in a less costly way; they would have experimented

  • before building this business.

  • Now, second part, I want to talk couple of minutes about tools.

  • So, what you want to do when you think about your business model,

  • so you want to sketch it up, you want to have all those nine building

  • blocks and you want to have a good story, okay?

  • But if we look what we've done until now or you've done before,

  • what we're doing here, what's missing? What's missing?

  • What didn't we do yet? Numbers. Numbers, right.

  • Like this, it's still intellectual masturbation.

  • Okay? What we really want now,

  • so we want to go a little bit further and do

  • something that paper tools can do easily,

  • which is throwing some ballpark figures, some numbers.

  • So, I thought about a year ago, two years ago now, hey,

  • if we could create an iPad app that would allow us to

  • sketch out a business model and throw in some numbers,

  • we could make a business model prototype in 5 minutes

  • or 10 minutes or 15 minutes without ever opening Excel

  • because if you want to put numbers in Excel,

  • fine, but you're going to waste a lot of time,

  • and you can't play in Excel. So, let me show you this,

  • want a little demo? Sure, yeah! Okay.

  • Right, I'm shamelessly selling the iPad app here,

  • but this is not our business, so - let's look at this,

  • here our business model toolbox,

  • and we're going to create a canvas for this app, okay?

  • So, we're going to make a business model for this app.

  • So, let's say, business model tool,

  • business model app, who could we target,

  • let's say, entrepreneurs and consultants,

  • what are the channels that we used if we're selling app?

  • iTunes. The App Store and the iTunes, right?

  • Okay. And let's say, we are selling the app.

  • So, I can do the same thing as I can do on paper,

  • I could sketch the whole thing up. what then becomes interesting is

  • it by turn on the little estimator up there in the left hand corner,

  • now start throwing in some figures.

  • So, how many entrepreneurs could be interested,

  • let's say, total possible market, 30,000, how many consultants,

  • let's use the same number to play with it a little bit.

  • And now let's draw in a revenue stream.

  • So, we said we're going to sell,

  • so we have a list of revenues streams here,

  • we're going to sell the app,

  • okay, to entrepreneurs,

  • but if I sell through the App Store, there is a little detail there,

  • what do I have to do? Pay Apple. I have to pay Apple 30%, right?

  • So, the revenue stream is basically

  • a revenue stream minus the transaction cut, sales minus a cut of 30%,

  • so a new formula comes up. How many could I reach - how

  • many customers could I reach in the first year,

  • let's say, 15%. How many times are they going to buy the app? Once,

  • except that they lose their iPad like me all the time. How much

  • are they going to pay? $29. How much do I pay to Apple? 30%.

  • So, immediately I can see just playing around, this is not worthwhile,

  • it doesn't even cover the development cost.

  • If I had mapped out the whole thing here,

  • I'd see that this is more expensive than what I could earn.

  • So here is where it gets interesting. Now I'm going to play,

  • let me take another idea,

  • let's say, I'm going to create a web app and I'll only

  • sell this to consultants and the channel is the web, okay.

  • Now they have a different job to be done.

  • Entrepreneurs want to find one business model that works.

  • Consultants, it's a bit different, right?

  • They're helping others again and again and again,

  • every week, every month. So, what kind of revenue stream would I make?

  • Recurring one. Recurring one, right?

  • Otherwise, I'd be silly to throw money out of the window.

  • So, I will say, I'm going to make here a subscription.

  • I'll use different revenue stream subscription,

  • web app to consultants, let's say, the same numbers,

  • 15%, you're going to pay $9 really cheap per month

  • and I can see boom. It's much more interesting.

  • So, of course, we know that recurring revenues subscriptions

  • are more interesting than app sales. But imagine if

  • you could do this for the entire business model,

  • you can play, you can do two,

  • three, four - four different alternatives in half an hour or an hour.

  • Because let me remind you again. It's the product,

  • value proposition plus the business model, the right business model,

  • that's important.

  • So, you want to play with this to find the right business model, okay?

  • So, you can find this on the App Store,

  • it's called Business Model Toolbox. And it really plays into

  • this idea of design thinking that prototyping is actually

  • the conversation that you have with your ideas.

  • So, when you start trying it out,

  • that you get new ideas. You will try something else.

  • You will develop different alternatives, okay?

  • Now, let's look at the last part here, process.

  • So, using an app like that you

  • can come up with great alternatives, amazing alternatives.

  • So, this is going to work. But you know what? Even the best

  • business model on paper is only a set of hypotheses,

  • a set of guesses, right?

  • So, this is what Steve Blank called well,

  • get out of the building because ... What do you know about Steve Blank for?

  • I don't know anything. Why are you interrupting me,

  • I'm talking - who are you to interrupt this?

  • Steve Blank could interrupt me, but ... Well, I'm Steve Blank.

  • Wow, let's welcome Steve Blank. That's a surprise.

  • Thanks, Alexander. Oh, yeah.

  • So, we have a chat about ... Let's have a chat about this, Alexander?

  • Shall we sit down? Let's sit down. I just happened

  • to be wandering through and heard my name used in vain,

  • what do you know about getting out of the building? How do

  • you take the Business Model Canvas and actually make it actionable?

  • You know I think when I came across your work,

  • it was a pretty much an eye opener because in the book,

  • we talk about design thinking,

  • right, about trying out prototypes and seeing what could work

  • and what couldn't work. But what I didn't realize was that,

  • hey, you can really test the business model and here the real

  • idea is you can actually test them before you build them.

  • So, that was something that we didn't write about and I think

  • it fit pretty well and I think you have the same idea,

  • is that right? Sure. It was so because when I came across your work,

  • I was - in fact, Ann Miura-Ko,

  • who teaches here at Stanford with me. Ann and I were already

  • trying to design our own Business Model Canvas and one day,

  • I found this great PhD thesis online and

  • tried to show it to Ann. In the meantime,

  • she had been trying to show me a book that she had found online and

  • we discovered it was the same person. It was you. And for us,

  • the whole idea about entrepreneurship is actually to be able to

  • break it down to a series of untested hypothesis. And the best way

  • we found to do that was your Business Model Canvas. And the part

  • I thought I had added was the ability to go in a time axis,

  • which is a customer development process which was a

  • rigorous test of hypothesis. And that brought us to

  • kind of expand an idea of the canvas. And you know,

  • what I found interesting in this time axis is how you

  • go through these different business models and I mean

  • I - probably many of you know that Steve put up a course, right?

  • What was it your E245? Right. The Lean LaunchPad and

  • I found it interesting that to see how the canvas evolves, right?

  • You take pieces, you test the hypothesis to see that,

  • that doesn't work, you changed the canvas. So that

  • tied in pretty well with what we were doing,

  • but in the building. Right. And so here is the thing

  • that I would add to that is that you can understand

  • the canvas in several ways. And two weeks ago,

  • I was in London in a conference called the Leancamp,

  • it's called and somebody told me who was actually interested

  • in this whole customer development and being start-up

  • he said when I came across the canvas,

  • I thought it's pretty interesting because it's

  • like a checklist. If you spent four years,

  • five years working this out and somebody tells you,

  • you came up with a checklist, you're pretty disappointed, right.

  • So, I thought that can't be it. So, what I realized is, well,

  • it's actually true. But that's the first level,

  • let me draw something here. That's the first

  • level of understanding when you use,

  • oops, something like the Business Model Canvas,

  • wonders of technology. I think the - I'm not moving away because

  • I don't like you. I'm going to follow you. Okay.

  • So what I realized is that there is different levels of using

  • the Business Model Canvas. And what would the first level be,

  • Alexander? It's the checklist, okay?

  • So... And that's a hypothesis checklist.

  • Let's say you are an engineer, right?

  • You have an idea or a vision of a product here. And you said,

  • well, you know there are a couple of

  • more things to create a business.

  • Oh, I need a customer, right? Right.

  • Oh, I need to reach the customer.

  • Oh, I need actually activities and resources to do this and at

  • the end of the equation revenues are bigger than costs.

  • So, you just fill out the boxes. But I think you can

  • go a step further is the second level is when,

  • yes, you fill out the boxes,

  • but you understand that there are connections between the

  • different pieces. And that was the Nespresso example you use.

  • It's exactly what I just shown there that they have a real story.

  • They have a strategy between the machine and the pods

  • to create recurring revenues at a very high margin,

  • all the money goes into their pockets, right?

  • And I think when you came for our class,

  • you saw our students already starting with level one,

  • which is, gee, the biggest step for most entrepreneurs is just trying

  • to figure out what were the hypothesis is a level one example.

  • And when you kind of get that and get out of the building,

  • then you realize this is another game to be played.

  • And the thing to remember for those of you doing start-ups

  • or want to compete even in an existing company,

  • if your competitor is playing a level one strategy,

  • that is just simply customer product market fit,

  • but you figured out a Nespresso strategy where you're

  • using other pieces of the Business Model Canvas,

  • you could kill them every time even though technically they might

  • have a better product. My favorite example is Microsoft. Anybody

  • ever believe DOS was the world's best engineering solution to an

  • operating system? Microsoft played a channel game on a way that

  • was chess when everybody else was playing checkers as a strategy.

  • And Bill Gates' biggest contribution to business was not technology.

  • It was the ability to use the channel and distribution and pricing

  • in a way that was actually if you drew it out,

  • the other pieces of the Business Model Canvas that no one else

  • saw because they were playing on a technology level of,

  • gee, I got this value proposition. Look at my features. Right.

  • And the best play that I found to get people to develop this idea of

  • a story... Yeah. ...and connections between the pieces was,

  • in a workshop I was always puzzled that people were just throwing

  • these post-it notes on the board at the beginning. Yeah.

  • So, I force them to do something in a different way. They said,

  • hey, the worst thing you can do when you explain your business

  • model is put everything on the slide and show that, why?

  • Because that's cognitive murder, okay?

  • It's information overload. Nobody can follow your

  • story and you'll have a hard time explaining it.

  • So, I get them to start from a blank canvas and you can even do this

  • by yourself just to figure out what's the story here. And I get

  • them to put up one post-it note or one building block at a time

  • to walk the audience through the business model.

  • So, that would be something like this,

  • hey, I'm addressing this customer segment and this is the

  • job that they want to get done. Today in the market,

  • nobody actually gets that job done.

  • So, this is what I'm offering them, so they can get the job done,

  • and you know what? They are willing to pay this much

  • to get it done. But if I want to do that I need these

  • key resources at these costs and so on.

  • So, if you're at that level, you're at level two,

  • you really can walk me through a strategy. That's a big difference

  • to level one. And is there more levels or is this kind of

  • like a Zen-like thing where I... It's not enough,

  • you want another level, okay.

  • So... Every consultant needs multiple levels,

  • so it could keep coming back. Don't insult me, I'm not a consultant,

  • I'm an entrepreneur.

  • No, not you, I mean, people who make a living off of your work.

  • Right, which is fun that people likes to use it.

  • So, there is a level three and a level three is when you don't just

  • understand your own story but you start understanding those business

  • model dynamics that exist in different business models.

  • So, you can understand, hey,

  • Google, that's actually something that with complicated terms,

  • you'd call it a double-sided market. We have several

  • pieces that fit together and you'll find the same dynamics

  • in several business models. And what I realize is the

  • best way to start understanding what we call,

  • patterns, business models with similar dynamics

  • to study different business models.

  • So, you can almost capture the wisdom of what others have been

  • doing by just mapping out the business model of Skype,

  • mapping out the business model of Google,

  • mapping out the business model of Nespresso

  • and starting to understand,

  • hey, what did they do that was so powerful

  • and once you understand those patterns,

  • you can use them, patterns comes from architecture,

  • it was used in software engineering,

  • you can take them right from the library and ask yourself,

  • could I create a double-sided market,

  • could I create a freemium model and if you know the patterns,

  • you know the dynamics. Have do you go out

  • and test those? Test them. Yes. Yeah.

  • So, here's the problem, right. Right. You can get very excited

  • about doing this on paper again and again and again

  • or you can hire consultants to do it for you,

  • but what you really want to do is -- and that's where

  • there is a great fit between your book,

  • which new version is coming out, right?

  • Or well is that a secret? Since you asked,

  • no one here will tell anybody,

  • don't worry, it's called the Startup Owner's Manual,

  • which is the 10 years in the making,

  • replacement for The Four Steps to the Epiphany,

  • now available for pre-order, but -- since you asked,

  • but truly this notion of the canvas used

  • to be thought as a static 2D document, right?

  • Yeah. And now there is some more insight,

  • I think from you as well about what the canvas means over time. I would

  • actually almost call that level four... Okay. Where you could say,

  • you know what, this is not a static document as you said,

  • it's something that evolves.

  • So, if we draw it out, you actually test several business models,

  • not just the design, but you create hypotheses,

  • you create a test for that hypothesis and then you try

  • to figure out what actually works and what doesn't, right?

  • So, let me just observe as Alexander is drawing that.

  • Those snapshots of the canvas over time,

  • which when I teach, I call,

  • scorecards has an amazing characteristic. Over a period of - let's say,

  • you take a snapshot of week, here is what I thought before,

  • here is what changed since I've gone out of the building,

  • you actually for the first time are documenting the process

  • of entrepreneurship over time. And when you play back,

  • that is, here is week one,

  • week two, weekend, you actually have a filmstrip of how

  • much you've learned as an entrepreneur over time and

  • the hair will stand up in the back of your neck because

  • there is never a way to capture that learning of,

  • gee, what did I learn and how did I learn it because every entrepreneur

  • has a great characteristic among many. They always claim that what

  • they're doing now is what they always thought from day one,

  • right? Of course, I knew that these weren't the customers.

  • I was just practicing over here. This way you can't

  • reinvent the past. Here is what I thought, here is why I moved,

  • from here to here to here and it captures that learning in a way

  • that's really impressive because it's just using our process over

  • time. Let me - maybe show how you could conceptually understand,

  • let's zoom in one at one moment, right?

  • We could say it's like laying the canvas here flat,

  • saying this is the business model that

  • we came up with. Yeah. Okay.

  • So, that's your design, that's your best guess. Okay. Your best hypotheses.

  • But then what you want to do is you want to ask yourself,

  • hey, another layer, second layer,

  • what are the underlying hypotheses of every one of these box and

  • then maybe select which one are the most important ones to make

  • this work. Okay. And so how would you figure out over time,

  • what would you have to do next on top of the hypotheses?

  • So, on the next level, next layer is you would start designing tests

  • because the hypothesis is bringing it out into the open,

  • making it explicit.

  • So, hypotheses are used here at Stanford because these

  • students are paying enormous sums to attend class,

  • but this is podcast to other parts of the world and the

  • word hypothesis there means what? It's a guess.

  • Guess, all right. So, we allow you to use hypotheses inside of Stanford

  • because you're paying a lot of money and this is actually a joke,

  • so some of you are allowed to laugh, but we call them elsewhere,

  • guesses because really what you're doing unless

  • you're a domain expert in a startup,

  • you have constructed your business model out of the series

  • of untested guesses and so this is a process to actually

  • articulate them and now start designing experiments in this

  • test layer to actually test them. And you know,

  • some go further than guess and there is some strategy professors,

  • they call this, WAG. Yeah. Wild Ass Gamble, okay?

  • If you know testing hypotheses and why am I

  • saying this because let's just look at the difference

  • between a startup. Yeah. And a large company, right.

  • Okay. Because there is a thing like corporate entrepreneurship.

  • And that's one of the areas I face a lot and we actually want

  • to make a difference between the hypotheses and testing and

  • the execution of existing business models.

  • So, in large companies you probably have more of a continuum

  • where you have the existing business model and you

  • could use the canvas to simply improve this, right?

  • That's more of an incremental innovation.

  • But then large companies are facing huge challenges,

  • entire industries like the movie industry,

  • for example. Right. They need to come

  • up with new business models.

  • So, they actually need to do something over here,

  • which is create new business models,

  • play around with them and see if they could work. And so

  • on the left is my existing business with an existing profit

  • and loss division and a staff and a functional organization

  • et cetera. Who's doing this stuff on the right?

  • So, here's the difference, right. You have - as you said,

  • here you have a work chart,

  • you know how to do this. Right. So here we're

  • in the space of execution. Yeah. All right,

  • existing business model. Here you have plans,

  • oops, plans well you got it, plans and budgets. Okay. Over here,

  • good question. Who's doing that? Yeah. The problem is that often,

  • we take the best people from here and we bring them

  • over here. So what's wrong with that? Well,

  • what they're going to try to do is plans and budgets, okay.

  • And sometimes well, they're really evaluated on that.

  • Now, if you want to work in a big company,

  • you're hired to do this and you're going to

  • have to face specific plans and budgets, run as fast as you can,

  • okay, because that's a career suicide.

  • Because the logic here is different,

  • it's actually what you describe in the four steps.

  • You don't want to plan and budget, yet you want to experiment, right.

  • You want to go through the four steps.

  • You want to iterate through,

  • so this doesn't work. So basically what you want to do is,

  • you want to experiment. You want to fail or succeed,

  • learn and then use those insights and experiment again and you want to

  • go through this loop. And this loop is actually something like this,

  • right? Okay. And so this is an interesting

  • insight. If we think about it, on the left hand side in execution,

  • large company executives or company executives who are

  • executing an existing business model are hired to do

  • repeatable things that are known. And if they fail,

  • it's a failure of competence. That is there is a job spec,

  • they were hired for that spec,

  • the business model was already known; failure in an existing corporation

  • is because you personally did not do your job.

  • But, when you're searching for the business model,

  • the rules have changed. You're no longer

  • hired for known execution.

  • And, in fact failure isn't punished; failure

  • is in fact just hypothesis testing.

  • And, if - what we've never done is actually articulate the fact

  • that when you're searching from a business model,

  • it's more likely that you're going from experiment to experiment,

  • as they fail, not as they succeed.

  • And, different people with different make-ups do better

  • in one section than others. Absolutely.

  • And, we should save some time for questions,

  • by the way. Right. Should we do one - there's some new thinking here....

  • Do you want to - you were telling me something about problem/solution

  • or product/market fit or you had a better phrase for it. What was

  • that called? I thought that was incredibly insightful.

  • Yeah, I was troubled by the fact that,

  • in Silicon Valley, but in engineering technology,

  • innovation in general,

  • we focus a lot on problem/solution or market/product fit,

  • right? Yeah. And, I thought that's a pretty basic concept,

  • two words. Could we create a canvas to sketch that out,

  • to work on it the same way we do for the business model? I thought

  • we already have a canvas with value prop and customer. Should we

  • draw - just zoom in on those two boxes or...? That's a good point so

  • it's like - if you tick here.... Yeah. ...the value proposition,

  • you take the customer segment.... Yeah.

  • ...and you look at the fit here, right? That's it.

  • And, you take this.... Yeah. ...you blow it

  • up like a magnifying glass. Okay. And,

  • you start explaining why do you think this product or value proposition

  • has a reason to be. Why does that fit with the customer service,

  • okay? Okay, why? So,

  • let's draw this up here. Let's do a little test. Can you

  • see - can you guess what this is? Can you guess what this is?

  • A gift. It's a Tiffany Box. That's the best you can do?

  • It's a value proposition. Can't you see that?

  • Hey, look, come on, here, right?

  • It's a value proposition. Let's try again.

  • Okay, what is this? Customer segment. Customer! Exactly! Great!

  • Okay, you won some chocolate; I have chocolate with me.

  • So, what you basically want is a fit between the two, right?

  • So, we already had that. Okay.

  • But, where it gets interesting is,

  • if I have a visual map to start sketching

  • this out and understanding it better.

  • So, let's look at the customer segment first. First thing we want to

  • do is we want to ask ourselves what jobs is this customer trying

  • to get done. What do you mean by jobs? It means if there's a - if

  • you're a web retailer and you want to sell salads to mothers,

  • what is it you're trying to get done?

  • Well, probably if it's a working mother,

  • she wants to buy groceries in the most efficient way with losing the

  • least time.... Absolutely. ...and all those kind of things.

  • So, she's not buying salads; she's actually trying to solve her problem.

  • She's trying to sell her problem and you're going to sketch out

  • all those jobs that she's trying to get done. Got it. Then you

  • want to dig deeper and you want to ask yourself,

  • well, what are the pains and the gains that she has here.

  • So, you want to start sketching out here the pains.

  • What are her pains when it comes to buying salads, right?

  • Oh, there's a long line in the store,

  • when she's finished from work,

  • and so on. What are all the pains?

  • And, then you want to sketch out what are the gains. She wants

  • to have healthy food; that would be a gain; all those things

  • that you learn in the market by talking to her,

  • customer development, right? So, on this side,

  • we observe everything around the customer segment,

  • okay? So, we can start maybe with a hypothesis but

  • we can even start with talking to customers.

  • So, then we've figured out everything around the customer. Okay.

  • Now, we want to look at what are we offering as a response?

  • So, we're going to look at the left hand side,

  • and let me use a different color here.

  • So, again, we're talking about the value proposition here,

  • okay? And, a value prop, is that my product? We try to avoid

  • any type of buzzword in the canvas,

  • right? Right. Probably the last one that survived

  • is the value proposition. Right. So, the value proposition could say,

  • it's the offer, and the offer is composed of products,

  • services, and if you're doing a software or web product,

  • well, you could say even its features.

  • Okay. We use the word features,

  • alright. Wow! Now, you haven't yet described how your products

  • and services.... Yeah. ...fit or relate to the jobs and the pains

  • and the gains. Couldn't we just call those benefits or something

  • or...? We could call these benefits over here. Yeah.

  • Now, you want to describe how exactly you're creating value,

  • how exactly you're creating benefits for the customer.

  • So, the first thing you want to do is you want to describe how

  • your products and services are. Can you figure out what this is?

  • Let's try it again. What is this? It's not coffee,

  • come on. It's a painkiller. You can see that,

  • right? It's right beside here, pains, painkiller.

  • So, you want to sketch out what are the painkillers,

  • buying online in efficient ways so you

  • don't have to stand in line.

  • So, the last one is over here you start sketching

  • out the gain creators. Now, this is just another canvas to zoom in,

  • into one part of the business model; most importantly is you need

  • to get both right. It's not just this; it's both together.

  • Wow, absolutely awesome! And, this isn't even in your current book, is it?

  • This is, could be a new book.

  • Yeah, it could be a new book.

  • So, Alexander, this was absolutely amazing.

  • And, thank you very much and I think...

Without further ado, Alexander.

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商業模式工具如何幫助你創業 - Alexander Osterwalder: Tools for Business Model Generation [Entire Talk]

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