Name: 為什麼現在擁有汽車變得如此昂貴？！ (Why Car Ownership Is Getting So Expensive | CNBC Marathon)
Uploaded: 2024-07-11T05:05:07.000Z
Duration: 44 min 14 s

A car is one of the biggest purchases a person will make in their lifetime.

汽車是一個人一生中最大的消費之一。

But unlike a house, a car starts losing value right away.

但與房子不同的是，汽車會立即開始貶值。

More than 100 million Americans have an auto loan.

有 1 億多美國人擁有汽車貸款。

And auto loan debt in the U.S. is currently at $1.5 trillion, a record high.

目前，美國的汽車貸款債務高達 1.5 萬億美元，創歷史新高。

If cars are to be affordable, they must also be affordable to maintain and they must be affordable to repair.

要想買得起汽車，還必須養得起車，修得起車。

But unlike a house, a car starts losing value right away, literally as you drive it off the lot.

但與房子不同的是，汽車的價值會立即開始縮水，就像你把它開出停車場一樣。

You could keep it spotless inside and out, give it regular maintenance and protect it against every ding, dent and scratch.

您可以讓它裡裡外外一塵不染，對它進行定期保養，防止出現任何凹痕、凹陷和劃痕。

Depreciation, the rate at which that happens, is one of those numbers everyone in the automotive world thinks about.

折舊，即折舊率，是汽車界每個人都會想到的數字之一。

Consumers, automakers and the massive used car market, which makes up somewhere around 40 million sales each year, more than double the sales of new cars.

消費者、汽車製造商和龐大的二手車市場每年的銷量約為 4000 萬輛，是新車銷量的兩倍多。

But in 2020, something strange started happening, turning the car market upside down.

但到了 2020 年，奇怪的事情開始發生，汽車市場發生了翻天覆地的變化。

Used vehicles were actually increasing for about two years, which we've never seen anything like that for the market.

實際上，二手車在大約兩年的時間裡一直在增長，這是我們從未見過的。

A lot of those trends have abated since, but those odd times led to lasting changes.

雖然這些趨勢後來有所減弱，但那些奇特的時代帶來了持久的變化。

In the post-pandemic world, there are fewer cars to go around and prices for both new and used vehicles are still high.

在 "大流行病 "後的世界，汽車數量減少，新車和二手車的價格仍然居高不下。

這種情況在一段時間內不可能改變。

Car buyers want their cars to hold value because it will help them get their money back if they decide to sell it at some point, whether they're trading it for a new one or not.

購車者希望他們的汽車保值，因為如果他們決定在某個時候出售汽車，無論是否要換新車，這都能幫助他們把錢賺回來。

In addition, a lot of car purchases are financed, which means if the resale value of the car dips too low, a buyer could end up paying more for the car than it is worth.

此外，很多汽車都是貸款購買的，這意味著如果汽車的轉售價值跌得太低，買家最終支付的車款可能會超過汽車的價值。

That is what it means to be underwater on a loan.

Similarly, automakers want their cars to hold as much value as possible, in part because they know customers care about that.

同樣，汽車製造商也希望自己的汽車儘可能保值，部分原因是他們知道客戶在乎這一點。

Depreciation also affects how automakers charge for leases, which are an effective way of drawing in new customers but are expensive to run for automakers.

折舊也會影響汽車製造商對租賃的收費方式，租賃是吸引新客戶的一種有效方式，但對汽車製造商來說營運成本高昂。

Sedans lose value faster than SUVs and cars from brands with strong reputations for quality and reliability depreciate more slowly.

轎車比越野車貶值更快，而品質和可靠性聲譽卓著的品牌汽車貶值更慢。

But on average, cars lose about 10 percent of their value as soon as you drive them off the lot.

但平均而言，汽車一駛出停車場就會貶值 10%。

We just like being in a brand new car and it's not brand new once you take it off the lot.

我們只是喜歡開著一輛全新的汽車，而一旦你把它從停車場開走，它就不是全新的了。

The 10 percent loss in value corresponds almost exactly with another specific number.

10% 的價值損失與另一個具體數字幾乎完全吻合。

And that number, say some insiders, is the primary reason a vehicle's value drops that much in the first day of ownership.

一些業內人士說，這個數字是車輛在擁有的第一天就貶值這麼多的主要原因。

Most new cars are sold with incentives at one point or another when first purchased by a consumer.

大多數新車在消費者首次購買時，或多或少都會有優惠措施。

An incentive is a discount on a vehicle provided by a manufacturer or dealer to induce people to buy it.

獎勵是製造商或經銷商為吸引人們購買汽車而提供的折扣。

The average incentive on a vehicle was about 10 percent.

That means on average, new vehicles were sold for about 90 percent of their MSRP or manufacturer suggested retail price.

這意味著，新車的平均售價約為其 MSRP 或製造商建議零售價的 90%。

And so that car you bought seems to drop by 10 percent in value the moment you drive it off the lot.

是以，你買的那輛車似乎在你開出停車場的那一刻就貶值了 10%。

What is actually happening is that the market is pricing in the probability you received a 10 percent discount or incentive on that vehicle, even if you didn't.

實際情況是，即使你沒有獲得10%的折扣或獎勵，市場也會對你獲得10%折扣或獎勵的可能性進行定價。

It's kind of a messy part of how we do things because we can't go back and see what the average transaction price is.

這是我們工作中比較混亂的一部分，因為我們無法回過頭來看平均交易價格是多少。

But we know historically what MSRP is on a year make model combination.

但我們知道，從歷史上看，一個年份的車型組合的 MSRP 是多少。

And so we can go see the value of that car against its original MSRP.

這樣，我們就可以根據汽車的原廠建議零售價來估算汽車的價值了。

When you sell your car, chances are you are often selling or trading it back in at a dealership.

當您出售汽車時，很有可能是在經銷商處出售或換回汽車。

The dealer is going to offer you the wholesale price on the vehicle, what the vehicle would fetch at a wholesale market like a dealer auction.

經銷商會向您提供車輛的批發價，即車輛在批發市場（如經銷商拍賣會）上的價格。

Those prices are always lower than the retail price, what the dealer would sell it to another consumer for, as there are additional costs and margin that need to be absorbed.

這些價格總是低於零售價，即經銷商賣給其他消費者的價格，因為需要吸收額外的成本和利潤。

That lower wholesale value also makes up part of the depreciation consumers see and feel.

較低的批發價值也是消費者看到和感受到的貶值的一部分原因。

Higher priced cars have higher markups or variance.

價格越高的汽車，加價或差異越大。

So there is an even bigger gap between their retail price and wholesale value.

是以，它們的零售價和批發價之間的差距就更大了。

But there is a third reason why cars lose value so quickly.

但是，汽車貶值如此之快還有第三個原因。

An economist named George Akerlof won a Nobel Prize for coming up with this idea.

一位名叫喬治-阿克洛夫（George Akerlof）的經濟學家因為提出了這個想法而獲得了諾貝爾獎。

Akerlof's famous paper is called The Market for Lemons.

阿克洛夫的著名論文名為《檸檬市場》。

In any market, there are information asymmetries.

This means sellers know more about the product they are selling than potential buyers do.

這意味著賣家比潛在買家更瞭解他們所銷售的產品。

If you have a car and it's like three days old or three months old and you sell it, why would you do that?

如果你有一輛車，車齡只有三天或三個月，你就把它賣掉，你為什麼要這麼做？

If the car was a good car, you're probably doing it because the car is a lemon.

如果這輛車是輛好車，你這麼做很可能是因為這輛車是輛 "檸檬車"。

From that first day drop, a car's value slides further about another 10 percent throughout the first year.

從第一天開始，汽車的價值會在第一年再下降 10%。

In the second and third year, it drops again and again.

到了第二年和第三年，它又一降再降。

Estimates of how much can vary depending on who you talk to and what they are measuring.

至於估計多少，則要看你和誰交談以及他們在測量什麼。

Again, a car will fetch less money on a wholesale market than it will on a retail market and maybe during a transaction between a private buyer and seller.

同樣，一輛汽車在批發市場上的價格比在零售市場上的價格要低，在私人買賣雙方的交易中也是如此。

In normal times, a steady supply of new vehicles year after year is enough to drive the value of any given car down.

在正常情況下，年復一年的新車穩定供應足以使任何一輛汽車的價值下降。

Add to that the normal wear and tear that comes with ownership.

此外，還有所有權帶來的正常磨損。

You may get dings in your door over time.

隨著時間的推移，您的車門可能會出現凹痕。

You know, maybe there's a crack in your windshield.

你知道，也許你的擋風玻璃有裂縫。

Maybe your kid spills juice in the backseat and the, you know, the upholstery is messed up.

也許你的孩子在後座灑了果汁，你知道，內飾就會被弄得一團糟。

And all that's just wear and tear on a car, which means that it's not worth what it originally was or to put it back in that state, someone would have to invest money to recondition the car back.

而所有這些都只是汽車的磨損，這意味著汽車已經不值錢了，或者說，要想讓汽車恢復到原來的狀態，就必須有人投入資金重新修整汽車。

After about three years, vehicles on average historically held about 50 percent of their value.

大約三年後，車輛的平均價值歷來保持在 50% 左右。

Three years is a kind of benchmark for the used car market because that is the typical term for a lease and leased vehicles are a large source of vehicles for the used market.

三年是二手車市場的一種基準，因為這是典型的租賃期限，而租賃車輛是二手車市場的一大車輛來源。

There are exceptions to this, of course, exotic cars, collector cars, limited editions, any car that is highly valuable won't depreciate normally and can even appreciate.

當然，也有例外情況，比如異國情調的汽車、收藏車、限量版汽車，任何價值很高的汽車都不會正常貶值，甚至還會升值。

It is rare for a car to appreciate or increase in value, but those are some that do.

汽車升值或增值的情況很少見，但也有一些汽車升值或增值了。

You know, if you if you lucky enough to buy it a new, you might actually sell it for profit.

要知道，如果你有幸買到了一輛新車，你可能真的會把它賣掉獲利。

一些原始設備製造商正試圖與之抗衡。

I think Tesla just had a in their agreement and they just pull it back again.

我想，特斯拉剛剛在協議中提到了這一點，他們又把它拉了回來。

So you cannot resell their Cybertruck for a year.

是以，您在一年內不能轉售他們的 Cybertruck。

At one point, Tesla even threatened to sue resellers for $50,000.

特斯拉甚至一度威脅要起訴轉售商，索賠 5 萬美元。

It reportedly removed the clause from its user agreement in mid-November 2023, just days before the truck's release, and then reinstated it when Cybertrucks started popping up for sale on the Internet.

據報道，該公司於 2023 年 11 月中旬，也就是卡車發佈的前幾天，刪除了用戶協議中的這一條款，但當 Cybertrucks 開始在互聯網上出售時，又恢復了這一條款。

This was also true of exotics like the Ford GT.

Ford sued wrestler and actor John Cena for reselling his Ford GT less than a year after purchasing.

福特起訴摔跤手兼演員約翰-塞納在購買福特 GT 不到一年後將其轉售。

During the COVID-19 pandemic, as people stayed away from public transportation and flying, used car values skyrocketed by somewhere around 30 percent.

在 COVID-19 大流行期間，由於人們遠離公共交通和飛機，二手車價值飆升了約 30%。

就拿你那輛價值 1 萬美元的二手車來說吧。

And by the end of that year, it was $13,000.

到那年年底，已經有 13000 美元了。

So people were buying cars, driving them for a year and then selling them for profit.

是以，人們買車，開一年，然後賣掉獲利。

It's still it's still your economy one on one, strong demand, short supply, prices went up.

這仍然是你的經濟，一對一，需求旺盛，供應短缺，價格上漲。

It was just to the extreme that we've never seen before.

這簡直是我們從未見過的極端情況。

On top of it all, production shutdowns and supply chain and chip shortages limited the number of cars in the marketplace.

除此之外，生產停工、供應鏈和芯片短缺也限制了市場上的汽車數量。

Automakers weren't leasing or selling cars into fleets such as rental agencies.

汽車製造商沒有向租賃公司等車隊租賃或銷售汽車。

The few cars they were selling were higher priced vehicles that helped maximize profits.

他們銷售的幾款汽車都是價格較高的車型，有助於實現利潤最大化。

New vehicle supply didn't meet demand, though, which drove customers into the used market.

然而，新車供不應求，導致消費者轉向二手車市場。

Even rental companies, which had sold off a lot of their fleets at the beginning of the pandemic, were buying used cars at auction to satisfy their own customers.

即使是租賃公司，在大流行之初也賣掉了很多車隊，在拍賣會上購買二手車來滿足自己的客戶。

We had two very distinct periods of vehicle appreciation, which is unheard of.

我們經歷了兩個截然不同的汽車升值期，這是前所未聞的。

You know, we we had prices that moved up into the spring, early, early summer in 2021.

要知道，在 2021 年的春季、初夏和初夏，我們的房價曾一度上漲。

And then they kind of went sideways and then we got to August, September and they had prices and values that were much, much higher than what anyone was used to.

然後，價格一路下滑，到了 8、9 月份，價格和價值都比人們習慣的價格和價值高出很多很多。

Fewer new cars in 2020 means fewer used cars in 2023 and 2024.

2020 年新車的減少意味著 2023 年和 2024 年二手車的減少。

That pandemic price bump has evened out a bit, but cars are holding on to about 60 percent of their value after three years, a 10 percent increase from pre-pandemic times.

大流行帶來的價格上漲已略有收斂，但三年後汽車的保值率約為 60%，比大流行前提高了 10%。

We expect some normal, normal seasonality, more normal depreciation, but the baseline for prices is going to be elevated.

我們預計會有一些正常的、正常的季節性變化，更正常的貶值，但價格的基線會被抬高。

是以，我們已經將價格重置在一個較高的水準上。

A lot of the goods and materials that go into producing a car are still sitting at high levels.

生產汽車的許多商品和材料仍處於高位。

Even though inflation is coming down, we're not in a period of deflation.

儘管通脹正在下降，但我們並沒有進入通貨緊縮時期。