Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

由 AI 自動生成
  • Good afternoon, everybody. I'm Andrew Ross Sorkin. It is a privilege to have with me

    大家下午好我是安德魯-羅斯-索金。很榮幸與我一起

  • Peter Thiel this afternoon, one of the great legendary investors in Silicon Valley. He has been involved in just about everything that you touch and feel, including being the co-founder of PayPal, the co-founder of Palantir. He made his first outside investment, made the first outside investment, I should say, in Facebook. His firm Founders Fund is a big backer of Stripe and SpaceX. His firm backed numerous other startups through the Founders

    彼得-蒂爾(Peter Thiel)是硅谷最偉大的傳奇投資人之一。他幾乎參與了你所接觸和感受到的一切,包括貝寶(PayPal)的聯合創始人、Palantir 的聯合創始人。他的第一筆外部投資,應該說是對 Facebook 的第一筆外部投資。他的公司 Founders Fund 是 Stripe 和 SpaceX 的大股東。他的公司還通過創始人基金支持了許多其他創業公司。

  • Fund and Thiel Capital. He also started the Thiel Fellowship, a two-year program that's an alternative to a college degree, which I want to get to at one point. And more importantly than all of it, he has touched some of the people and found the people who you read about in the headlines every day, from Mark Zuckerberg to Elon Musk to Sam Altman and so many others.

    基金和泰爾資本。他還創辦了 "泰爾獎學金"(Thiel Fellowship),這是一個為期兩年的項目,是大學學位的替代選擇,我想在某個時候談一下這個項目。更重要的是,他接觸到了一些人,找到了你每天在頭條新聞上看到的那些人,從馬克-扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)到埃隆-馬斯克(Elon Musk),再到薩姆-奧特曼(Sam Altman),還有很多其他人。

  • And it is great to have you here.

    你能來這裡真是太好了。

  • Thanks for having me.

    謝謝你邀請我。

  • We're also going to talk a little politics as well, along with maybe some of the issues and culture conversations that are happening in Silicon Valley. But here's where I want to start the conversation, because I want to start the conversation talking about people, because I think there's something actually extraordinary when you think about your track record over the years of involving yourself in investing, not just in companies, but ultimately in people. You wrote a book, which is coming on a 10-year anniversary. And by the way,

    我們還將談談政治,以及硅谷正在發生的一些問題和文化對話。但我想從這裡開始對話,因為我想從 "人 "開始對話,因為我認為,當你回想一下你多年來參與投資的記錄,不僅是投資公司,而且最終是投資人時,就會發現一些非同尋常的東西。你寫了一本書,這本書即將出版 10 週年。順便說一句

  • I reread it, and it stands up in a very big way. It is called Zero to One. And you wrote the following about founders, the idea of founders. You wrote that the lesson for business is that we need founders. If anything, we should be more tolerant of founders who seem strange or extreme. We need unusual individuals to lead companies beyond mere incrementalism.

    我重讀了這本書,它在很大程度上站得住腳。這本書叫做《從0到1》。你在書中提到了創始人,創始人的概念。你寫道,對企業的啟示是,我們需要創始人。如果有的話,我們應該對那些看似奇怪或極端的創始人更加寬容。我們需要不尋常的人來上司公司,超越單純的漸進主義。

  • And I mention that because I also just mentioned a number of individuals which we read about all the time. And some of those people would be described as unusual, perhaps, or even strange. And I'm curious about how you think over the years you have found these individuals, what it is that has made these individuals as successful as they have become.

    我之所以提到這一點,是因為我剛才還提到了我們經常讀到的一些人。其中有些人也許會被形容為不尋常,甚至奇怪。我很好奇,多年來你是如何發現這些人的,是什麼讓這些人取得了如此大的成功?

  • Yes, it's obviously, if there was some simple magic formula, this is what a founder looks like, and you invest in this category of people who's a founder, it probably gets faked. It's like, I don't know, it's a 20-year-old with a T-shirt and jeans, or something like this, or you end up with all kinds of really fake ideas. But yeah, I think a lot of the great companies that have been built over the last two decades were, somehow, they were founded by people where it was somehow deeply connected to their identity, their life's life project.

    是的,很明顯,如果有什麼簡單的魔法公式,創始人就是這個樣子,你投資的這類人就是創始人,那很可能會被偽造。這就像,我不知道,這是一個20歲的T恤衫和牛仔褲,或類似的東西,或者你最終與各種真正虛假的想法。是的,我認為在過去二十年裡,很多偉大的公司都是由這樣一些人創立的,他們的公司與他們的身份、他們一生的事業有著千絲萬縷的聯繫。

  • They had some kind of idiosyncratic, somewhat different vision of what they were doing.

    他們對自己所做的事情有著某種特立獨行、與眾不同的看法。

  • They did something new, and then they built something extraordinarily big over the years.

    他們做了一些新的事情,然後經過多年的努力,建立起了一個非同尋常的大家庭。

  • And of course, they have these sort of extreme personalities, often have a lot of blind spots, and there sort of are all these ways in which it's a feature, and there are ways in which it can be a little bit buggy. But it's sort of a package deal, and I net out to it being massively advantageous versus, let's say, a professional CEO being brought in.

    當然,他們也有極端的個性,往往會有很多盲點,而且他們的工作方式有很多特點,也會有一些缺陷。但這是一個一攬子交易,我認為它比引入一個專業的首席執行官更有優勢。

  • The prehistory of this, I would say, would be in the 1990s. The Silicon Valley formula was you had various people found the company, and then you'd replace them as quickly as possible with professional CEOs, professional management. And there are variations of this that happened with Netscape, and Yahoo, and even Google, all these companies.

    我想說的是,這種情況的前史應該是在 20 世紀 90 年代。硅谷的模式是,先讓不同的人創建公司,然後儘快用專業的首席執行官、專業的管理層來取代他們。網景、雅虎、甚至谷歌,所有這些公司都是如此。

  • The Gen X people founded them. The baby boomers came along and took over the companies and stole them from the Gen X founders in the 90s. In the 2000s, when the millennials founded the companies, they were given more of an opportunity, and it made a big difference.

    X 代人創立了這些公司。90 年代,嬰兒潮一代出現,接管了公司,從 X 代創始人手中搶走了公司。到了 2000 年代,當千禧一代創辦公司時,他們獲得了更多的機會,從而產生了巨大的變化。

  • The Facebook story I always tell is, it was 2006, two years in, Zuckerberg was like 22 years old, and we got a $1 billion offer to sell the company to Yahoo. And we had a board meeting. There were three of us, and we thought we should at least talk about it.

    我常說的 Facebook 故事是,2006 年,Facebook 成立兩年,扎克伯格 22 歲,我們收到了一份 10 億美元的報價,要把公司賣給雅虎。我們召開了董事會當時我們有三個人 我們覺得至少應該討論一下這個問題

  • It was a lot of money. Zuckerberg would make $250 million, and it was sort of an eight-hour-long discussion, and he didn't know what he'd do with the money. And he'd just start another social networking company. He kind of liked the one he had, and he didn't know what else he would do, and so he really didn't want to sell. And if you had a professional CEO, it would have just been, man, I can't believe they're offering us $1 billion, and I'm going to try not to be too eager, and we better take the money and run. And getting that one thing right makes a big difference.

    那是一大筆錢扎克伯格會賺到2. 5億美元 這是個長達8小時的討論 他不知道該怎麼處理這筆錢他想再開一家社交網絡公司他有點喜歡他現在的公司 他不知道自己還能做什麼 所以他真的不想賣掉公司如果你有一個專業的首席執行官,你就會說:"夥計,真不敢相信他們出價 10 億美元,我儘量不要太心急,我們最好拿了錢就跑。而做對了這一件事,情況就大不一樣了。

  • Let me ask you a different question. All of these individuals had a huge impact on society and have an enormous individual power. And I think one of the things that you've argued in this book and that you've argued over the years is that we need to give them that power.

    讓我問你一個不同的問題。所有這些人都對社會產生了巨大影響,擁有巨大的個人力量。我認為,你在這本書中以及多年來一直主張的一點是,我們需要賦予他們這種力量。

  • We need to offer them a latitude that in many ways we don't offer others.

    我們需要為他們提供一種寬鬆的環境,而在很多方面,我們並沒有為其他人提供這種環境。

  • Well, I think one of the frames I always have is that there are many ways in which the United

    我認為,我始終認為,美國有許多方式可以

  • States, the developed countries, have been relatively stagnant for the last 50 years.

    發達國家在過去 50 年中相對停滯不前。

  • Progress has slowed. We've had progress in computers, Internet software, and many other domains. Things have kind of stalled out, and it sort of manifests in low economic growth in the sense that the younger generation is going to have a tough time doing as well as their parents. And there is sort of this way that there has been this broad stagnation for 40, 50 years, and we need to find ways to do new things. I don't think tech startup companies are the only ways to do them. That is a vehicle for doing it. And yeah, if you don't allow these companies to have a certain latitude and flexibility to try to do new things, we shut it down right away. The stagnation will be worse than ever.

    進步已經放緩。我們在計算機、互聯網軟件和許多其他領域都取得了進步。但現在一切都停滯不前了,表現為經濟增長乏力,年輕一代很難像他們的父輩那樣取得好成績。40、50 年來,我們一直處於停滯不前的狀態,是以我們需要尋找新的方法。我不認為科技創業公司是唯一的途徑。這只是一種手段。是的,如果你不允許這些公司有一定的自由度和靈活性去嘗試做新的事情,我們就會立即關閉它。停滯不前的情況將比以往更加嚴重。

  • Okay, but here's a separate almost philosophical question. I'm going to read back something you said to The New Yorker. There was a piece about Sam Altman. This is right around actually when OpenAI began, 2016. And I think it actually might even be representative of how you might think about Mark Zuckerberg or Elon Musk or some of these other kinds of major players.

    好吧,但這裡有一個單獨的哲學問題我念一段你對《紐約客》說的話有一篇關於薩姆-奧特曼(Sam Altman)的文章。這篇文章實際上是在2016年OpenAI開始的時候寫的。我認為這篇文章甚至可以代表你對馬克-扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)、埃隆-馬斯克(Elon Musk)或其他一些大公司的看法。

  • This is what you said. You said, Sam's program for the world is anchored by ideas, not people.

    你是這麼說的你說,山姆的世界計劃是以理念為基礎,而不是以人為基礎。

  • And that's what makes it powerful, because it doesn't immediately get derailed by questions of popularity. And I thought that that was actually very indicative of most of the people that you have invested in. It's really been about ideas, and in some ways, you could even argue is disconnected from people.

    這就是它的強大之處,因為它不會馬上因為人氣問題而出軌。我認為,這實際上非常適合你投資的大多數人。它實際上是關於理念的,在某些方面,你甚至可以說是與人脫節的。

  • I think it is really about a whole wide... People, they're able to think about a wide spectrum of things. They're able to think about... Good founders have theories of how to hire people, how to manage them, how to build teams. They have theories about where the culture of the society's work going. They have technical things about the product, the design. They have ideas about how they should market their company. So they're sort of polymaths who are able to think about a lot of these things. But yeah, I'm biased towards a lot of the ones where it's more intellectual. But I think that quote has held up pretty well with Sam Altman. Maybe he needed to pay a little bit more attention to the board and things like that. There was probably a people dimension that he had ignored a little bit too much in November 2016.

    我認為,這實際上是關於整個廣泛的...人們能夠思考各種各樣的事情他們能夠思考...優秀的創始人都有一套如何僱人、如何管理、如何組建團隊的理論。他們有關於社會工作文化走向的理論。他們有關於產品和設計的技術知識。他們有關於如何營銷公司的想法。是以,他們是多面手,能夠思考很多事情。不過,是的,我偏愛那些更注重知識的人。但我覺得這句話在薩姆-奧特曼身上得到了很好的詮釋。也許他需要更多關注董事會之類的事情。在 2016 年 11 月,他可能忽略了一些人的層面。

  • Since we're on the Sam Altman of it all, and since Sam was here yesterday, I'm so curious.

    既然我們說到了山姆-奧特曼,而且山姆昨天也在這裡,我很好奇。

  • You were a mentor of his. What do you think of open AI? What do you think of AI more broadly right now? I mean, are we in a bubble? Is this the future? What is this?

    你是他的導師。你如何看待開放式人工智能?你怎麼看現在更廣泛的人工智能?我的意思是,我們是否處於保麗龍之中?這是未來嗎?這是什麼?

  • That's a broad question. I think I'm always hesitant to talk about it because I feel there's so many things I would have said about AI where I would have been very wrong two, three years ago. So maybe I'll start by just saying a little bit about the history of what people thought was going to happen, and then the surprising thing that open AI achieved that did happen. If you had this debate in the 2010s, there was sort of one maybe frame in terms of two paradigms, two books. There was the Bostrom book, Superintelligence 2014, which is that AI was going to build this godlike superhuman intelligence. It was heading towards this godlike oracle. That was what AI was going to be. And then there was the Kai-Fu

    這個問題很寬泛。我覺得我總是猶豫要不要談這個問題,因為我覺得有很多關於人工智能的事情,我在兩三年前就已經說錯了。所以,也許我可以先說說人們認為會發生的事情的歷史,然後說說開放式人工智能所取得的令人驚訝的成就。如果你在2010年代有這樣一場辯論,那麼可能有兩種範式、兩本書。博斯特羅姆的《超級智能》(Superintelligence 2014)一書認為,人工智能將構建出神一般的超人智能。它正朝著神諭的方向發展。這就是人工智能的未來。還有《開福

  • Lee rebuttal 2018, AI superpowers, which was sort of where the CCP rebuttal to Silicon

    李開復反駁2018,人工智能超能力,這算是中共反駁硅

  • Valley that no, AI is not about godlike intelligence. That's a science fiction fantasy Silicon

    谷,不,人工智能不是神一樣的智能。那是科幻小說中的幻想 硅谷

  • Valley has. AI is going to be about machine learning, data collection. It's not conscious.

    谷有。人工智能的核心是機器學習和數據收集。它不是有意識的。

  • It's not any of these weird things. It's surveillance tech. And China is going to beat the US in the race for AI because we have no qualms about sort of this totalitarian, not the word he used, collection of data in our society. And that was sort of the way the AI debate got framed. And then the thing I always said was, man, it's just such a weird word. It means all these different things. It's annoyingly undefined. But then the sort of surprising and strangely unexpected thing that happened is that, in some sense, what open AI with chat GPT 3.54 achieved in late 22, early 23 was you passed the Turing test, which was not superintelligence. It's not godlike. It's not low tech surveillance. But that had been the Holy Grail of AI for 60 or 70 years. And it's a fuzzy line. The Turing test is you have a computer that can convince you that it's a human being. And it's a somewhat fuzzy line. But it pretty clearly hadn't been passed before. It pretty clearly is passed now. And that's a really extraordinary achievement. It raises all sorts of interesting, big picture questions. What does it mean to be a human being in 2024? The placeholder answer I would have been tempted to give a couple of years ago would be something like the Noam Chomsky idea that something very important about language, this is what sets humans apart from all the other animals. We talk to each other. And we have these rich semantic syntax things.

    這不是什麼奇怪的東西。而是監控技術中國將在人工智能領域擊敗美國,因為我們對這種極權主義毫無保留,他用的不是這個詞,而是在我們的社會中收集數據。這就是人工智能辯論的框架。然後我總是說,夥計,這真是個奇怪的詞。它意味著所有這些不同的東西。令人討厭的定義不明但令人驚訝和意外的是,在某種意義上,在22年底23年初,用GPT3.54實現的開放人工智能,通過了圖靈測試,這不是超級智能。它不是神一樣的存在。也不是低技術監控。但六七十年來這一直是人工智能的聖盃這是一條模糊的界線圖靈測試是指電腦能讓你相信它是人類這是一條模

  • And so if a computer can replicate that, what does that mean for all of us in this room?

    那麼,如果計算機可以複製這一切,這對在座的各位意味著什麼呢?

  • And so it's an extraordinary development. And it was also somehow, even though it had been the Holy Grail, some of the last decade before, it was not expected at all. And so there's something very significant about it and very underrated. And then, of course, you get all these questions about, is it going to, the econ one question, is it a compliment?

    是以,這是一個非同尋常的發展。儘管在過去的十年裡,它一直是人們心目中的 "聖盃",但在某種程度上,它卻完全不被人們所期待。是以,它有一些非常重要的意義,卻被低估了。然後,當然,你會得到所有這些問題,它是要,經濟一的問題,它是一個恭維?

  • Is it going to make people more productive? Or is it a substitute good where it's going to replace?

    它能提高人們的工作效率嗎?或者說,它是一種可以替代的物品嗎?

  • What do you think of all of this and how bullish as an investor are you on this? And what do you think our society is? When you hear Sam Altman talk about this, you say he's right.

    您對這一切怎麼看?作為投資者,您對此有多看好?你認為我們的社會會怎樣?當你聽到薩姆-奧特曼談論這些時,你會說他是對的。

  • That's what it's going to be. Do you think it's going to be something else? You lived through 1999. There's some people who say this is a hype cycle. Other people say this is the future.

    就這麼定了。你覺得會是別的嗎?你經歷過1999年有人說這是一個炒作週期也有人說這就是未來

  • Well, I'm very anchored on the 99 history. And I somehow always like to say that 99 was both. It was, you know, the peak of the bubble was also, in a sense, the peak of clarity.

    我對 99 的歷史非常熟悉。我總是想說,99年是兩者兼具的。你知道,保麗龍的頂峰在某種意義上也是清晰度的頂峰。

  • People had realized the new economy was going to replace the old economy. The Internet was going to be the most important thing in the 21st century. And people were right about that. And then the specific investments were incredibly hard to make. And even the no-brainer market leader. So, you know, if you said 1999, the no-brainer investment would have been

    人們已經意識到,新經濟將取代舊經濟。互聯網將成為 21 世紀最重要的東西。人們的認識是正確的。但具體的投資卻難上加難。即使是市場領導者也不例外。所以,你知道,如果你說 1999 年,最簡單的投資應該是

  • Amazon stock. It's a leading e-commerce company. And they're going to scale and they'll get bigger.

    亞馬遜股票。這是一家領先的電子商務公司。他們將不斷擴大規模,做大做強。

  • And it peaked in December 99 at $113 a share. It was $5.5 in October 2001, 22 months later.

    它在 99 年 12 月達到頂峰,每股 113 美元。22 個月後,即 2001 年 10 月,它的價格為 5.5 美元。

  • You then had to wait until the end of 2009 to get back to the 99 highs. And then if you'd waited until today, you would have made 25 times your money from 99. You would have first lostyou would have gone down 95% and then made 500X. So even the no-brainer investment from 99 was wickedly tricky to pull off in retrospect.

    然後,你必須等到 2009 年底才能回到 99 年的高點。如果你等到今天,你的收益將是 99 年的 25 倍。是以,即使是 99 年的無腦投資,回過頭來看也是非常棘手的。

  • And I sort of think that AI, the LLM form of AI

    我認為,人工智能、人工智能的法學碩士形式--

  • These are the large language models.

    這些是大型語言模型。

  • Large language models.

    大型語言模型。

  • Open AIs of the world.

    開放的人工智能世界

  • Again, that's – passing the Turing test, I think it's roughly on the scale of the

    再說一遍,這--通過圖靈測試,我認為大致相當於

  • Internet. And so it's an incredibly important thing. It's going to be very important socially, politically, philosophically, about all these questions about meaning. And then the financial investment question I find unbelievably hard and confusing. And yeah, it's probably quite tricky.

    互聯網。是以,這是一件非常重要的事情。在社會、政治和哲學上,在所有這些關於意義的問題上,它都將非常重要。而金融投資的問題,我覺得難得讓人困惑。是的,這可能很棘手。

  • If I had toif you had to sort of concretize it, one thing that's very strange about theif you sort of just follow the money, at this point 80% to 85% of the money in AI is being made by one company. It's NVIDIA. And so it's all on this sort of very weird hardware layer, which Silicon Valley doesn't even know very much about anymore. We don't really do hardwarewe don't do silicon chips in Silicon Valley anymore. I get pitched on these companies once every three or four years and it's always, I have no clue how to do this. It sounds like a pretty good idea, but man, I have no clue and we never invest.

    如果非要我說--如果你非要把它具體化--有一件事非常奇怪--如果你跟著錢走,目前人工智能領域 80% 到 85% 的錢都被一家公司賺走了。那就是英偉達。是以,這一切都發生在這種非常奇怪的硬件層上,而硅谷甚至都不太瞭解這一點了。在硅谷,我們不再做硬件,不再做硅芯片。我每隔三四年就會被推薦給這些公司,但每次都是 "我不知道該怎麼做"。這聽起來是個不錯的主意,但我毫無頭緒,我們也從不投資。

  • And soand then there's sort of this theory that the hardware piece makes the money initially, then gets more commodified over time and it'll shift to software. And the – I don't know, the multi-trillion dollar question, is that going to be true again this time or will NVIDIA sort of have this incredible monopoly position?

    是以,有一種理論認為,硬件最初能賺錢,但隨著時間的推移,硬件會越來越商品化,然後轉向軟件。我不知道,這個價值數萬億美元的問題,這次會不會再次出現,或者英偉達公司會不會擁有令人難以置信的壟斷地位?

  • And what's your bet at the moment?

    你目前的賭注是多少?

  • I suspect NVIDIA will – I think it will maintain its position for a while. I think the game theory on it is something like all the big tech companies are going to start to try to design their own AI chips so they don't have to do the 10x markup to NVIDIA.

    我認為英偉達會--我認為它會在一段時間內保持自己的地位。我認為它的博弈論是,所有大型科技公司都會開始嘗試設計自己的人工智能芯片,這樣他們就不必向英偉達支付 10 倍的加價。

  • And then how hard is it for them to do it? How long will it take? If they all do it, then the chips become a commodity and nobody makes money in chips. And so then do you go into hardware and you should do it if nobody else is doing it. If everybody does it, you shouldn't do it. And then maybe – I'm not sure how that nets out, but probably people stay stuck for a while and NVIDIA goes from strength to strength for a while.

    然後,他們做起來有多難?需要多長時間?如果他們都這麼做,那麼芯片就成了商品,沒人能靠芯片賺錢了。那麼,你是否要進入硬件領域,如果沒有人做,你就應該做。如果大家都做,你就不應該做。然後,也許--我不確定結果如何,但也許人們會堅持一段時間,英偉達也會在一段時間內不斷壯大。

  • I have a related but maybe personal question for you. You happen to have this very interesting relationship with Sam Altman and then also a very interesting relationship with Elon Musk.

    我有一個相關但可能是私人的問題要問你。你恰好與薩姆-奧特曼(Sam Altman)有一段非常有趣的關係,同時與埃隆-馬斯克(Elon Musk)也有一段非常有趣的關係。

  • You both worked at PayPal. You famously were part of a coup effectively to push Elon Musk out of the company. You're now friends with him all over again and have a stake in SpaceX.

    你們都曾在貝寶工作過。你曾參與了一場政變,將埃隆-馬斯克趕出了公司。現在你們又成了朋友,並持有 SpaceX 的股份。

  • You can maybe walk us through that friendship. We had some rough moments in 2000-2001.

    你也許能帶我們回顧一下這段友誼。2000-2001 年,我們經歷了一些艱難的時刻。

  • We can get into that if you want, but where I was going to go with this actually is one of the things that's been fascinating and fascinating to the Valley and I think to the rest of the country has been the commentary we've heard from Elon Musk who helped build

    如果你願意,我們可以討論這個問題,但我想說的是,對美國硅谷和全國其他地方來說,埃隆-馬斯克(Elon Musk)的評論是非常吸引人的。

  • OpenAI with Sam and the break actually between the two of them as creating this not-for-profit and what's happened to it. In fact, Elon Musk originally sued Sam earlier this year and then dropped the suit recently. But how do you think about this idea of a company that was started as a not-for-profit and all of the safety concerns and things that you hear from Elon on one side and Sam on the other?

    OpenAI與薩姆的關係,以及他們兩人在創建這個非營利組織時的分歧和後來的發展。事實上,埃隆-馬斯克(Elon Musk)原本在今年早些時候起訴了薩姆,但最近又撤訴了。但你是如何看待這家以非營利形式創立的公司,以及你從埃隆和薩姆那裡聽到的所有安全問題和事情的?

  • Man, it's whichever person I talked to last I find the most convincing probably. So, you know, I talked to Elon about it and he made this argument. It's just completely illegal for a non-profit to become a for-profit company because otherwise everyone would set up companies as non-profits and take advantage of the tax laws and then you turn them into a for-profit and this is the most obvious arb and they just can't be allowed to do this. It's obviously just totally illegal what Sam's trying to do at OpenAI. And then like half an hour after the conversation was over, at the moment, it's like, oh, that's a really strong argument.

    我覺得最後跟誰談的人最有說服力。所以,我和埃隆談過這個問題,他提出了這樣一個論點。非營利性公司變成營利性公司是完全不合法的,否則每個人都會成立非營利性公司,利用稅法的優勢,然後你再把它們變成營利性公司,這是最明顯的arb,不能允許他們這麼做。很明顯,山姆在OpenAI的所作所為是完全違法的。談話結束半小時後,此刻我的感覺是,哦,這真是個有力的論據。

  • And then half an hour later, it's like, but, you know, the whole history of OpenAI is that the biggest handicap they had was a non-profit and it led to all these crazy conflicting things culminating in this non-profit board that thought it was better to shut down the company or the whole venture, whatever you want to call it, rather than keep going. And nobody is ever going to take the lesson from OpenAI to start a non-profit and turn it into a for-profit later given what a total disaster that was. But yeah, whoever I listened to last I find the most compelling.

    半小時後,人們就會說,但是,你知道,OpenAI的整個歷史就是,他們最大的障礙就是是一個非營利組織,這導致了所有這些瘋狂的衝突,最終導致這個非營利組織的董事會認為,與其繼續下去,還不如關閉公司或整個企業,不管你怎麼稱呼它。鑑於 OpenAI 的徹底失敗,沒有人會從 OpenAI 中吸取教訓,將其從非營利性公司轉型為營利性公司。不過,無論我最後聽誰的演講,我都覺得他最有說服力。

  • Let me ask you a different question. You left Silicon Valley. You have now moved to Los

    讓我問你一個不同的問題。你離開了硅谷。你現在搬到了洛杉磯

  • Angeles. That's your home.

    安吉拉那是你的家

  • We left San Francisco specifically. Yeah.

    我們特別離開了舊金山是啊

  • San Francisco specifically.

    特別是舊金山。

  • It was, it just felt it was time to get out.

    它只是覺得是時候離開了。

  • So tell us why it was time to get out because I think a lot of the issues that actually we read about whether around OpenAI and some of the culture issues at a lot of these companies are the reason you decided you didn't want to live there anymore.

    所以,請告訴我們為什麼是時候離開了,因為我認為,我們讀到的很多關於 OpenAI 的問題,以及很多公司的文化問題,都是你決定不想再在那裡生活下去的原因。

  • It was, man, it's hard to, it's a bunch of things that came together, but it was, there was a sense that it was sort of the ground zero of the most unhinged place in the country.

    這是,男人,這是很難的, 這是一堆事情走到了一起, 但它是,有一種感覺, 這是排序的地面零 在全國最不正常的地方。

  • It was, you had this catastrophic homeless problem, which maybe is not the most important problem, but sort of, and it was never getting better. You had, it was by 2018 when we moved to LA, it felt like it had become extraordinarily self-hating where everybody who was not in tech hated the tech industry. This would be, this is very odd. It would be like the people in Houston hating oil or people in Detroit hating cars, you know, people in New York hating finance. And so it had this unhinged, self-hating character in the city itself.

    你有一個災難性的無家可歸者問題,這也許不是最重要的問題,但也算是吧,而且一直沒有好轉。到了2018年,我們搬到洛杉磯後,感覺這裡變得格外自我憎恨,所有非科技行業的人都憎恨科技行業。這很奇怪。就像休斯頓的人討厭石油 底特律的人討厭汽車 紐約的人討厭金融業一樣就像休斯頓的人憎恨石油 底特律的人憎恨汽車 紐約的人憎恨金融業

  • And there were all these things that seemed extraordinarily unhealthy. And if you asked me in 2021, you know, I would have said, man, they are finally, you know, yes, they're sitting on the biggest, you know, they created all this wealth and yet they are going to succeed in committing suicide. Three years later, you know, I think the jury is a little bit more out because maybe the AI revolution is big enough that it will save even the most, you know, I don't know, the most ridiculously mismanaged city in the country.

    所有這些都顯得格外不健康。如果你在2021年問我,你知道,我會說,夥計,他們終於,你知道,是的,他們坐在最大的,你知道,他們創造了所有這些財富,但他們將成功地自殺。三年後,你知道,我認為陪審團的意見會更多一些,因為也許人工智能革命已經足夠大,它甚至可以拯救這個國家最,你知道,我不知道,最可笑的管理不善的城市。

  • It seemed to me, I thought that part of the issue that you had with San Francisco was the politics of it. And not just the politics of it, but how politics had seeped into the culture of so many of the companies and feeling, I think that you thought that it had moved in a very progressive way.

    在我看來,我認為你對舊金山的部分看法是它的政治性。不僅僅是政治,而是政治是如何滲入到許多公司的文化和感覺中的,我想你認為它是以一種非常進步的方式發展的。

  • Yeah, that's always a very clear dimension of it. But, and that's sort of the tip of the iceberg. That's the part that's above the surface that people always focus on. And then the part that's below the surface is just the deep corruption, the mismanagement of the schools, the buses, all the public services, the way things don't work, the way the zoning is the most absurd in the country. You know, there was, I don't know, there was a house I was looking to buy where you couldn't build access into the garage. And Gavin Newsom, who was the Lieutenant Governor of California at the time, said he'd help me get a garage access permit. Again, it's not clear that's what the Lieutenant Governor of the fifth largest economy in the world should be doing. But he said he knew how to do this in San

    是的,這始終是一個非常清晰的維度。但是,這只是冰山一角。人們總是關注表面上的那部分。而在表面之下的部分,則是深層次的腐敗,學校、公共汽車、所有公共服務的管理不善,事情無法運轉的方式,以及全國最荒謬的分區方式。你知道嗎,我不知道,我想買的一棟房子,你不能在車庫裡建通道。當時的加州副州長加文-紐森(Gavin Newsom)說,他會幫我申請車庫出入許可證。同樣,這並不是世界第五大經濟體的副州長應該做的事情。但他說,他知道如何在聖

  • Francisco, and it was circa 2013. And then, you know, you needed to get it, you needed to get the neighbors to sign off, which was maybe doable. And then you needed to go to the Board of Supervisors because you had to build a staircase, and it was a public walkway, and the whole public had to comment. Nobody knew what happened then. But then even harder, a tree had grown where the driveway was supposed to be, and you needed a tree removal permit. And this was the sort of thing that you would never get. And so you can describe all this as like crazy left-wing ideology, but I think it's more, you know, it's more like, you know, really, really deep corruption. And then this is, you know, this is in a way the San Francisco problem, it's the California problem. The analogy I have, if you want to think about the economy of California, in some ways it's analogous to Saudi Arabia.

    弗朗西斯科,大約是在 2013 年。然後,你知道,你需要得到它,你需要得到鄰居的簽字同意,這也許是可行的。然後你需要去監事會,因為你必須建造一個樓梯,而且是公共通道,整個公眾必須發表意見。沒人知道當時發生了什麼。但更麻煩的是,原本應該是車道的地方長出了一棵樹,你需要獲得移樹許可。而這種事情你是絕對不可能得到的。所以你可以把這一切描述成瘋狂的左翼意識形態 但我認為這更像是 你知道的 非常非常嚴重的腐敗從某種程度上說,這是舊金山的問題,也是加州的問題。我的比喻是,如果你想考慮加州的經濟,在某些方面,它類似於沙

  • You have these, you know, you have a very mismanaged state government. There's a lot of insane ideology that goes with it. But you have these incredible gushers called the big tech companies. And then there's a way the super insane governance is linked to the gold rush of the place. And so, yeah, there's sort of a, there's some point where it'll be too crazy even for California, but California can get away with a lot of stuff you wouldn't get away with elsewhere. San Francisco, my judgment, had gone a little bit too far. Maybe the AI thing is, you know, they found one more giant gusher, and, you know, and maybe you don't have any Saudi money in your fund, I hope.

    你有這些,你知道, 你有一個非常管理不善的州政府。隨之而來的是很多瘋狂的意識形態但你有這些不可思議的大科技公司這種超級瘋狂的管理方式 和這個地方的淘金熱有關所以,是的,在某種程度上,即使對加利福尼亞來說,這也太瘋狂了, 但加利福尼亞可以逃脫很多在其他地方無法逃脫的事情。根據我的判斷,舊金山做得有點過火了。也許人工智能的事情是,你知道, 他們發現了一個更巨大的湧流, 而且,你知道,也許你沒有 任何沙特的錢在你的基金,我希望。

  • Virtually none, no.

    幾乎沒有,沒有。

  • Just in case. Here's a different question, though, because it gets to the politics of this, which is, there's been, it seems like a shift inside Silicon Valley, and a shift in terms of even the way the companies are managed around, in a political dimension. And you were very outspoken, obviously, you supported President Trump in the last go around. But speak to what do you think, and I want to get to that part too, but I want you to speak first to the shift in the Valley, at least what seems like a shift, perception wise, from being a very progressive place to maybe less so. Maybe not, maybe it's just the, you know,

    以防萬一。不過,這裡有一個不同的問題,因為它涉及到政治問題,那就是,硅谷內部似乎發生了轉變,就連公司的管理方式也發生了轉變,這涉及到政治層面。顯然,你在上一輪競選中直言不諱地支持了特朗普總統。我也想談談你的看法,但我想讓你先談談硅谷的轉變,至少從觀念上看,硅谷似乎發生了轉變,從一個非常前衛的地方變成了一個不那麼前衛的地方。也許不是,也許只是,你知道的、

  • Larry Summers and I spoke this afternoon, and he said there's, you know, 10 people he thinks are very loud on Twitter. And that's why the world thinks, you know, that between

    今天下午,拉里-薩默斯和我聊了聊,他說,他認為有10個人在推特上非常活躍。這就是為什麼全世界都認為,你知道,在

  • David Sachs and, you know, a bunch of other people, and Elon Musk, that's not representative, and I think you may have a different view.

    大衛-薩克斯(David Sachs)和其他一些人,還有埃隆-馬斯克(Elon Musk),這並不具有代表性,我想你可能有不同的看法。

  • Well, you know, I don't think, you know, I don't think you'll get a majority of tech people to support Trump over Biden or anything like that. I think you'll get way more than you had four or eight years ago. So, you know, I don't know if you're measuring a relative shift or an absolute number. Those are probably two different measures on that. But I would say that if we ask a very different question about, let's say, you know, extreme wokeness, or I don't even know what you're supposed to call it, there is probably, you know, a broad consensus among the good tech founders, startup CEOs, people across a pretty broad range that it's gone way too far. I talked to a lot of these people, a lot of them are, you know, I'd say more centrist Democrats, but it is just, you know, we need to have a secret plan to fight this. And they are, what they tell me behind closed doors is way, way tougher than what they dare say in public. And so it is like, you know, we need to have a plan to hire fewer people from San Francisco, because that's where the people, the employees are the crazy. So if you want to have a less woke workforce, we need to, you know, we're going to have targets about how we steadily move our company out of San Francisco, specifically.

    嗯,你知道,我不認為,你知道,我不認為你會得到大多數技術人員支持特朗普而不是拜登或類似的東西。我認為你會得到比四年或八年前更多的支持。所以,我不知道你是在衡量相對變化還是絕對數字。這可能是兩個不同的衡量標準。但我想說的是,如果我們問一個非常不同的問題,比方說,你知道的,極端 "好客",或者我甚至不知道你應該怎麼稱呼它,那麼,你知道的,優秀的科技創始人、初創企業首席執行官、相當廣泛範圍內的人們可能會有一個廣泛的共識,那就是,這已經走得太遠了。我和很多這樣的人聊過,他們中的很多人,你知道,我得說是比較中間派的

  • And yeah, these are the sort of conversations that I've...

    是的,這些都是我......

  • And do you agree with this? And by the way, let me just read, you probably know Alex Outswang,

    你同意嗎?順便說一句,讓我讀一下,你可能認識亞歷克斯-奧特斯旺(Alex Outswang)、

  • Scale AI CEO.

    Scale AI 首席執行官。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Who said that he's put together what he calls a merit-based hiring program. He said he's getting rid of DEI. It says hiring on merit will be a permanent policy at scale. It's a big deal whenever we invite someone to join our mission. And those decisions have never been swayed by orthodoxy or virtue signaling or whatever the current thing is. I think of our guiding principle as MEI, merit, excellence, and intelligence. Bill Ackman went on to say that he thinks DEI is actually inherently a racist and illegal movement.

    他說,他已經制定了所謂的擇優錄用計劃。他說他要取消 DEI。他說,擇優錄用將成為一項長期政策。每當我們邀請某人加入我們的任務時,這都是一件大事。而這些決定從未被正統觀念、美德信號或任何時下流行的東西所左右。我認為我們的指導原則是 MEI,即優點、卓越和智慧。比爾-阿克曼接著說,他認為DEI本質上是一個種族主義和非法的運動。

  • Yeah, I, again, my feel for it is there aren't that many people who are willing to say what

    是的,我的感覺是,沒有那麼多人願意說什麼。

  • Alex says, but I think there are an awful lot of people who are pretty close to thinking this, that there were ways they leaned into the DEI thing. It was like an anti-Trump thing.

    亞歷克斯說,但我認為有很多人都很接近這樣的想法,他們有自己的方式傾向於DEI的事情。就像反特朗普一樣

  • Everything was sort of polarized around Trump for the last four years of his presidency.

    在特朗普擔任總統的最後四年裡,一切都圍繞著他兩極分化。

  • And so you have to demonstrate that you're anti-Trump by being even more pro-DEI. That's of course not necessarily a logical thing. But yes, people somehow ended up in this place that was very different. And then, you know, there probably, there always are questions what drove the DEI movement, the wokeness in these companies. And it probably is over-determined.

    是以,你必須通過更加支持民主黨來證明自己是反特朗普的。這當然不一定符合邏輯。但是,是的,人們不知何故最終來到了這個截然不同的地方。然後,你知道,可能總會有人問,是什麼推動了DEI運動,是這些公司的智慧。這可能是過度決定的。

  • You know, there probably is a, there's a bottom-up, you know, woke millennial people who were brainwashed into DEI in their colleges. That's sort of the bottom-up theory. There's sort of a, I don't know, there's sort of a cynical corporate version where this is, you know, the leadership of the company either believed it or used it as sort of a, as a way to manage and control their companies in certain ways. You know, the part that I always feel is a little bit underestimated is there was probably also some top-down level from a government regulatory point of view where, you know, if you, if you don't do DEI, there is some point where you get, you do get in trouble. You know, if you, if, you know, I don't know.

    你知道,可能有一個,有一個自下而上的,你知道,被喚醒的千禧一代的人誰在他們的大學被洗腦到DEI。這是一種自下而上的理論。還有一種,我不知道,有一種憤世嫉俗的企業版本,你知道,公司的領導層要麼相信它,要麼把它作為一種,作為一種以某種方式管理和控制他們公司的方式。你知道,我一直覺得有點被低估的部分是,從政府監管的角度來看,可能也有一些自上而下的層面,你知道,如果你,如果你不做DEI,你會有一些麻煩。你知道,如果你,如果,你知道,我不知道。

  • This is part of the ESG movement now. I mean, look, we talked, we talked about ESG here for a long time.

    這是 ESG 運動的一部分。我的意思是,聽著,我們在這裡談論 ESG 已經很久了。

  • There was an ESG movement and then there were probably all these, these governmental versions.

    有一個 ESG 運動,然後可能還有所有這些,這些政府版本。

  • And so, I don't know, this, this would be probably, if my candidate for the company in Silicon Valley is still probably the most woke, would be, would be something like, like

    所以,我不知道,這可能是,如果我的公司在硅谷的候選人仍然可能是最清醒的,將是,將是類似的東西,像

  • Google. And it's less woke than it was two, three years ago, but in some ways, you know, they have a total monopoly in search. And so, there's sort of some way in which, you know, if wokeness is a luxury good, like you can afford it more if you're a monopoly than if you're not.

    谷歌雖然沒有兩三年前那麼清醒,但在某些方面,你知道,他們完全壟斷了搜索領域。是以,在某種程度上,你知道,如果清醒是一種奢侈品,那麼如果你是壟斷者,你就比非壟斷者更能負擔得起。

  • And then, and then the problem for, for Google as a pretty big monopoly is that it's always going to be, you know, subject to a lot more regulatory pressure from the government. And so, if you have something like the Gemini, the Gemini AI engine and, you know, and it's sort of, it's sort of this comical absurdist thing where it generates these black women

    然後,然後問題來了,谷歌作為一個相當大的壟斷者,它總是會,你知道,受到來自政府的更多監管壓力。所以,如果你有像雙子座這樣的東西,雙子座人工智能引擎,而且,你知道,它是那種,它是那種這種滑稽荒誕的東西,它會產生這些黑人女性。

  • Nazis, you know, and you're supposed to find famous, famous Nazis and then the diversity criterion gets applied across the board. And so, it just generates fake black women who are Nazis, which is, you know, a little bit too progressive, I think.

    納粹,你知道, 你應該找到 著名的,著名的納粹 然後多樣性標準 得到全面應用。這樣一來,就產生了假納粹黑人女性,我覺得這有點太前衛了。

  • But, but, but then, but then if you think of it in terms of this larger political context,

    但是,但是,但是,但是,如果你從更大的政治背景來考慮的話、

  • Google will never get in trouble for that. The FTC will never sue them for misinformation or anything like that. That's not, that, that stuff does not get fact checked. You don't really get in trouble. And you probably even get some protection where, okay, you know, you are, you're going along with the woke directives from the ESG people or the government.

    谷歌絕不會是以惹上麻煩。美國聯邦貿易委員會(FTC)永遠不會起訴他們提供錯誤信息或類似的事情。事實並非如此,那些東西不會被檢查。你不會真的惹上麻煩。你甚至可能會得到一些保護,好吧,你知道,你是,你會沿著醒目的指令從ESG的人或政府。

  • Maybe you overdid it a little bit, but we trust you to be good at other things. So, there may be a very different calculus if you're a sort of a large quasi-regulated monopoly.

    也許你做得有點過了,但我們相信你在其他方面也很出色。是以,如果你是一家大型準管制壟斷企業,可能會有非常不同的考慮。

  • Let me ask you about large quasi-regulated monopolies and also concentration, but I want to read you, this is something you actually wrote in your book 10 years ago about Google and it being a monopoly. You said, since it doesn't have to worry about competing with anyone, it has wider latitude to care about its workers, its products, and its impact on the wider world. Google's motto, don't be evil, is in part a branding ploy, but it's also characteristic of a kind of business that's successful enough to take ethics seriously without jeopardizing its own existence. In business, money is either an important thing or it's everything. Monopolists can't afford to think about things other than making money.

    讓我問你關於大型準監管壟斷企業以及集中度的問題,但我想讀給你聽,這其實是你十年前在書中寫到的關於谷歌和它是壟斷企業的內容。你說,因為它不必擔心與任何人競爭,所以它有更大的自由度來關心它的員工、它的產品以及它對更廣闊世界的影響。谷歌的座右銘 "不作惡 "在某種程度上是一種品牌策略,但它也是一種成功企業的特徵,這種企業足以在不危及自身生存的情況下認真對待道德問題。在商界,錢要麼是重要的東西,要麼就是一切。壟斷者除了賺錢,根本無暇顧及其他事情。

  • Non-monopolists can't. In a perfect competition, a business is so focused on today's margin that it can't possibly plan for a long-term future. Only one thing can allow a business to transcend the daily brute struggle for survival, monopoly profits. Were you writing in favor then of the monopoly idea or against?

    而非壟斷者卻做不到。在完全競爭的環境中,企業只關注今天的利潤,不可能為長遠的未來做打算。只有一種東西能讓企業超越日常的生存鬥爭,那就是壟斷利潤。您當時是支持還是反對壟斷理念?

  • Oh, I will, well, my book was giving you advice for what to do and from the inside, you always want to do something like what Google did. If you're starting a company, competition is for losers or capitalism and competition, people always say they're synonyms. I think they're antonyms because if you have perfect competition, you compete away all the capital.

    哦,我會的,好吧,我的書是給你建議該怎麼做,從內部來說,你總是想做一些像谷歌那樣的事情。如果你正在創辦一家公司,競爭是失敗者的事,或者資本主義和競爭,人們總是說它們是同義詞。我認為它們是反義詞,因為如果你有完美的競爭,你就會競爭掉所有的資本。

  • If you want to have Darwinian competition, red in tooth and claw, you should open a restaurant.

    如果你想在達爾文式的競爭中張牙舞爪,你應該開一家餐館。

  • It's like an awful, awful business. You will never make any money. It's perfectly competitive and completely non-capitalist. So from the inside, you want to always go for something like monopoly.

    這就像一門可怕的生意。你永遠賺不到錢。這是完全競爭的,完全是非資本主義的。所以從內心來說,你總是想做壟斷之類的事情。

  • And then, yes, there are, in other parts of my book, I also qualify it that there are dynamic monopolies that invent something new, that create something new for the world and we reward them with patents or things like that that they get. And then at some point, there's always a risk that these monopolies go bad, that they become like a troll collecting a toll at a bridge, that they're not dynamic and that they sort of become fat and lazy.

    是的,在我書中的其他部分,我也提到了一些有活力的壟斷企業,它們發明了一些新的東西,為世界創造了一些新的東西,我們用專利或類似的東西來獎勵它們。但在某些時候,這些壟斷企業總會有變質的風險,它們會變得像在橋上收費的巨魔一樣,失去活力,變得又肥又懶。

  • Are we there yet? I mean, Lena Kahn, if she was sitting here, would say, we got there a long time ago.

    我們到了嗎?我是說,如果莉娜-卡恩坐在這裡,她會說,我們早就到了。

  • I think, man, there are all these ways I would, if I had to defend Google, and I would still say that it's still better run, even in its silly woke way, even in a slightly troll-like toll collecting way than whatever completely destructive path Lena Kahn would have for the company. And so we're still getting more good from Google as it is.

    我想,夥計,如果讓我為谷歌辯護的話,我還是會說,谷歌的經營方式還是比較好的,即使是以愚蠢的方式,即使是以一種略帶巨魔色彩的收費方式,也比莉娜-卡恩為公司制定的任何完全破壞性的道路要好。是以,我們還是能從谷歌身上得到更多的好處。

  • Do you feel that way about all the big tech companies? I mean, you have lots of investments in smaller companies that need to access the App Store on Apple's phone. Do you say to yourself that that should be opened up? Do you say they created the store, therefore they should control the store? How do you think about that kind of stuff?

    你對所有大型科技公司都有這種感覺嗎?我的意思是,你投資了很多小公司,這些公司需要訪問蘋果手機上的 App Store。你是否會說,這應該開放?你會說他們創建了應用商店,是以他們應該控制應用商店嗎?你是怎麼考慮這些問題的?

  • There sort of are a lot of complicated questions on all these things. It's obviously, yeah, they're much bigger. We're in a very different place from where you were 10 years ago on these things. I still worry that, in many cases, the remedy is worse than the disease.

    所有這些事情都有很多複雜的問題。很明顯,是的,這些問題要複雜得多。在這些問題上,我們所處的位置與 10 年前大不相同。我仍然擔心,在許多情況下,補救措施比疾病更糟糕。

  • A lot of these businesses are, if you have a natural monopoly, the remedy is not to break it up. The remedy is to, it's like a utility company, and then the remedy is to regulate it or tax it or do various things like that. So if you could convince me that we are as static as a utility company, then maybe the remedy is to do something like that. But to the extent, the real monopoly problems in our society, I think, are much more these old economy racket-like companies. I spent three months during COVID in Maui, and there's a single hospital in Maui, and there was sort of this line, if you have a pain, get on a plane. Because it's a local racket, it's completely mismanaged. And that's probably, the really dysfunctional monopolies in our society are these pretty big ones that control these local markets and that are 100% troll collecting. And I think even with all my misgivings about something like Google, it's a vastly morally superior place to your local hospital.

    如果存在自然壟斷,很多企業的補救措施不是將其解體。補救的辦法是,它就像一家公用事業公司,然後補救的辦法是對它進行監管或徵稅,或者做諸如此類的事情。是以,如果你能讓我相信,我們就像公用事業公司一樣一成不變,那麼也許補救措施就是做類似的事情。但就程度而言,我認為,我們社會中真正的壟斷問題,更多的是這些類似於舊經濟敲詐勒索的公司。在 COVID 期間,我在毛伊島待了三個月,毛伊島只有一家醫院。因為這是當地的一個騙局,完全管理不善。我們社會中真正功能失調的壟斷企業,可能就是這些控制著當地市場的大型壟斷企業,它們1

  • How do you feel about it in the context of AI, which is to say that if you believe AI is this transformative product, and that there's only going to be three or four players who are going to control all of these models, whether it be Google or Microsoft with open

    在人工智能的背景下,也就是說,如果你認為人工智能是一種變革性的產品,而且只有三四家公司會控制所有這些模型,無論是谷歌還是微軟,它們都擁有開放的人工智能模型,那麼你對此有何看法?

  • AI, or maybe an Amazon along the way. I don't know where you think Apple is going to land in this conversation. But is that a good thing or a bad thing? And also, I would argue, even as an investor who looks at startups, how do you even look at startups down the line that could effectively get competed away, because I'm going to basically build my app with AI, and I'm just going to copy what you've made?

    人工智能,或許還有亞馬遜。我不知道你認為蘋果會在這場對話中佔據什麼位置。但這是好事還是壞事?另外,我想說的是,即使作為一個關注初創企業的投資者,你又如何看待那些可能會被競爭者淘汰的初創企業呢?

  • Well, I think it's in a very different place from the consumer internet type businesses, which there's been a history, they've been around for decades. If I had to make the anti-Google argument, it would be they won at search in 2002, and there's been no serious competition for 21, 22 years. They beat Microsoft and Yahoo in 2002. And then it's somehow very hard to disrupt that. And then I think the AI piece is extremely fluid. It's extremely hard to know. It's very hard to know where the value is. And as I said, it's like the obvious monopoly right now is NVIDIA. But it doesn't seem that durable. If you thought

    我認為,谷歌現在的處境與消費者互聯網類型的企業截然不同,後者有悠久的歷史,已經存在了幾十年。如果我不得不提出反谷歌的論點,那就是他們在 2002 年贏得了搜索業務,而在過去的 21、22 年裡,一直沒有出現過激烈的競爭。他們在 2002 年擊敗了微軟和雅虎。是以,要想顛覆這種局面很難。然後,我認為人工智能這一塊非常不穩定。我們很難知道。很難知道價值在哪裡。就像我說的,現在明顯的壟斷者是英偉達(NVIDIA)。但它似乎並不那麼持久。如果你認為

  • NVIDIA is as durable as Google, I mean, the stock's really cheap. You should just buy it like crazy. And so what the market pricing is telling you is, yeah, they have a temporary monopoly, but it's not very robust. And then on the level of the software companies, I worry that OpenAI has a lead. All sorts of other people are going to be able to catch up pretty quickly. And if you have three or four doing the same thing, that's a lot more than one. Very, very, very different set of economics.

    英偉達就像谷歌一樣耐用,我是說,它的股票真的很便宜。你應該瘋狂買入。所以市場定價告訴你的是,是的,他們暫時壟斷了市場,但並不穩固。在軟件公司層面,我擔心OpenAI已經領先。其他各種各樣的人都會很快迎頭趕上。如果有三四家在做同樣的事情,那就比一家要多得多。這套經濟學非常、非常、非常不同。

  • I want to pivot the conversation again, because another investment that you've made and been very public about is Bitcoin. And you have remained a very big bull. You have come out publicly and you said that enemy number one to Bitcoin is the sociopathic grandpa from

    我想把話題再轉回來,因為你做的另一項投資是比特幣,而且是非常公開的投資。你一直是個大牛。你曾公開說過,比特幣的頭號敵人是反社會的老爺爺。

  • Omaha that you described as Warren Buffett. Can you tell me what you were thinking when you said that? It got a lot of laughs. So somehow people, it probably had some kind of a nerve. But it was in a 2022 Bitcoin convention talk I gave. And there were three separate enemies. There was Jamie Dimon, Larry Fink.

    你所說的沃倫-巴菲特的奧馬哈。你能告訴我你當時是怎麼想的嗎?這引起了很多笑聲。不知怎麼的,人們可能覺得很好笑。但這是我在 2022 年比特幣大會上說的。有三個不同的敵人傑米-戴蒙,拉里-芬克

  • Larry Fink, who's no longer an enemy, by the way.

    拉里-芬克,順便說一句,他不再是敵人了。

  • He sort of shifted, but maybe I can save the man until Larry Fink thinks too. And then there was Warren Buffett. And the rough context was, my sort of political, sociological analysis was the cryptocurrencies were, it was a revolutionary youth movement, but for them to really take over, you needed, it couldn't just be a student uprising like 1968. You needed to get the rest of the society on board. And as long as the old people were going to sit on their hands, that was the big blocker for cryptocurrencies to go to the next level.

    他有點轉變了,但也許我可以把他留到拉里-芬克也這麼想的時候。然後是沃倫-巴菲特粗略的背景是 我的政治社會學分析是 加密貨幣是一場革命性的青年運動 但要想讓他們真正接手 你需要的 不僅僅是像1968年那樣的學生起義你需要讓社會上的其他人也加入進來只要老人還在袖手旁觀 這就是阻礙加密貨幣更上一層樓的最大因素

  • Are you still convinced?

    你還相信嗎?

  • I think it's gotten partially unlocked with the Bitcoin ETF. But then probably the part where I'm less convinced of is this question of the sort of ideological founding vision of Bitcoin or these cryptocurrencies as sort of a cypherpunk, crypto anarchist, libertarian, anti-centralized government thing.

    我認為比特幣ETF已經部分解開了這個問題。但我不太相信的是,比特幣或這些加密貨幣的意識形態創立願景,是一種賽弗朋克、加密無政府主義、自由主義、反中央集權政府的東西。

  • Isn't that what got you interested in the first place?

    這不正是你最初感興趣的原因嗎?

  • That's what I thought was terrific about it. And then the question is, does it really work that way? Or has that thread somehow gotten lost? And so when people in the FBI tell me that they'd much rather have criminals use Bitcoin than $100 bills, it suggests that maybe it's not quite working the way it was supposed to.

    這就是我認為它了不起的地方。那麼問題來了,真的是這樣嗎?還是說,這條線索已經丟失了?所以,當聯邦調查局的人告訴我 他們更願意讓罪犯使用比特幣 而不是百元大鈔的時候 這就說明,也許比特幣並沒有按照它本來的方式運行

  • Have you sold any of your Bitcoin?

    您出售過比特幣嗎?

  • I still hold some. There are all these ways. I didn't buy as much as I should have. And I'm not sure it's going to go up that dramatically from here.

    我還持有一些。有這麼多辦法。我買的沒有我應該買的多。我也不確定以後會不會漲得那麼厲害。

  • From here?

    從這裡?

  • Yeah, I think we got the ETF edition. And I don't know who else buys it quickly from here.

    是的 我想我們買的是ETF版的我不知道還有誰從這裡很快買到了。

  • That's some interesting investment advice. That actually surprised me because I don't think I've heard you. I thought you were still all in.

    你的投資建議很有意思。這讓我很驚訝,因為我好像沒聽過你說過。我還以為你還是全投了呢

  • I still have a small position. It probably still can go up some, but it's going to be a volatile, bumpy ride. And I had a dual reason. One was this sort of ideological, decentralized future of computing world that I really do believe in, really believe would be better.

    我還持有少量倉位。也許還能漲一些,但會很不穩定,一路顛簸。我有兩個原因。一個原因是,我真的相信這種意識形態的、去中心化的未來計算世界,我真的相信這樣會更好。

  • And it seemed like the perfect vehicle for that for such a long time. And I am just much less convinced of that.

    在很長一段時間裡,這似乎是一個完美的載體。但我現在卻不這麼認為了。

  • Interesting.

    有意思

  • So maybe Larry Fink with the BlackRock ETF surrendered to the forces, the anti-ESG forces, or maybe it's more like Bitcoin's been co-opted by them. And I worry it was more the latter.

    所以,也許是拉里-芬克和貝萊德 ETF 向反 ESG 勢力投降了,或者更像是比特幣被他們收編了。我擔心更多的是後者。

  • Okay, different question. SpaceX, that's another big investment for you. After ousting Elon Musk, you became friends with him again. What does that look like to you in the future? Is that going to be the biggest and best investment you've ever made when this is all said and done?

    好吧,換個問題。SpaceX 對你來說又是一筆大投資 SpaceX, that's another big investment for you.在趕走埃隆-馬斯克之後,你又和他成了朋友。這對你的未來有什麼影響?當這一切都結束後,這將是你做過的最大最好的投資嗎?

  • Man, it's – I'm always sort of hesitant to sort of pitch these companies too much. But I thinkyeah, there were sort of a lot of different things that came together.

    夥計,我總是有點猶豫要不要給這些公司做太多宣傳。但我覺得,是的,有很多不同的事情湊在一起。

  • When Elon was building both Tesla and SpaceX in the 2000s, people thought he was just really, really crazy. And I think even a lot of those of us who had worked with him at PayPal, there was this PayPal book that David Sachs and I thought of writing.

    埃隆在 2000 年代創建特斯拉和 SpaceX 的時候,人們認為他真的非常非常瘋狂。我想,即使是我們中許多曾在貝寶(PayPal)與他共事過的人,戴維-薩克斯(David Sachs)和我也曾想過寫一本貝寶的書。

  • The Elon chapter was, I think, entitled something like The Man Who Knew Nothing About Risk or something like this. And there were all these sort of crazy Elon stories I could tell.

    埃隆那一章的標題好像是 "對風險一無所知的人 "之類的。我還可以講一些埃隆的瘋狂故事。

  • And then if one of the two companies had succeeded, you would say, well, maybe he still got really lucky. But when two out of two companies that people thought were completely harebrained in the 2000s, when they both succeed, man, you have to somehow reassess it and somehow the rest of us somehow are too risk-averse or there's something about risk he knows that we don't or something like this.

    如果兩家公司中有一家成功了,你會說,好吧,也許他真的很幸運。但是,當人們在 2000 年代認為完全是胡思亂想的兩家公司中的兩家都取得成功時,夥計,你就不得不以某種方式重新評估它,以某種方式重新評估我們其他人是否過於規避風險,或者他是否知道一些我們不知道的風險之類的東西。

  • And so, yes, I think there's – and then

    所以,是的,我認為--然後--

  • You didn't invest in Tesla.

    你沒有投資特斯拉。

  • We did not invest in Tesla. We should have invested in that one. It was public at a much earlier date. And then there's always sort of a self-imposed limitation that we tend not to invest in public companies.

    我們沒有投資特斯拉。我們應該投資那家公司。它上市的時間更早。此外,我們還有一個自我限制,就是不投資上市公司。

  • There's 20% of a venture fund you could, but that was sort of theand I think they started Tesla in 2002. It went public in 2010.

    你可以獲得 20% 的風險基金,但那是一種--我想他們是在 2002 年創辦特斯拉的。它在 2010 年上市。

  • I remember test driving the Model S in October 2012, and it was just, wow, this is just a terrific car.

    我還記得 2012 年 10 月試駕 Model S 時的感覺,哇,這真是一輛了不起的車。

  • And you could have – I think the correct thing would have been to wait until they came out with it, and then nobody liked it.

    你本可以--我認為正確的做法應該是等到他們推出它,然後沒人喜歡它。

  • It was such a hated stock, shorted by everybody, and you could have just waited 10 years and just bought the shares in the public market, and you would have made 10 times your money in 18 months and 100 times in the next six, seven years.

    這是隻遭人唾棄的股票,人人都在做空它,而你本可以等上 10 年,在公開市場上買入這隻股票,18 個月內你就能賺到 10 倍的錢,而在接下來的六、七年裡,你就能賺到 100 倍的錢。

  • Seven, eight years.

    七、八年

  • And then there was something also about SpaceX that looked like it was a very crazy, harebrained idea, and yet it was very straightforward.

    太空探索技術公司(SpaceX)也有一些看起來非常瘋狂、胡思亂想的想法,但卻非常直接。

  • It was the rocket launch business.

    這是火箭發射業務。

  • The government will payor the customers pay for the vehicles before you build them, so it's actually cash flow positive from a verythere's some money they needed for expansion, but it was basically a cash flow positive business.

    政府會在你製造車輛之前支付--或者說客戶會在你製造車輛之前支付--是以,從非常--他們需要一些錢進行擴張--的角度來看,這實際上是一項現金流為正的業務。

  • It was a weird investment in 2008.

    2008 年的投資很奇怪。

  • They didn't need any of the money, but there was some – I think some NASA or government rule where they needed outside investors.

    他們不需要任何資金,但有一些--我想是美國國家航空航天局或政府的一些規定,他們需要外部投資者。

  • And so they were forced to take investors, and then we were on good enough terms that we did it, and everyone else thought it was too crazy.

    於是,他們被迫接受了投資者,然後我們的條件足夠好,我們就做了,其他人都覺得這太瘋狂了。

  • If you had been a Tesla shareholder, we've all been reading about it, would have you paid him the big compensation package?

    如果你是特斯拉的股東,我們都看到了相關報道,你會給他支付高額賠償嗎?

  • I would havewell, I think the nuanced answer is I would have voted in favor of the compensation package because you would know that if it failed, the share price would have gone down a lot the next day because people would wonder whether Elon would quit, and that would be bad for the company.

    我會--嗯,我想細微的答案是,我會對補償方案投贊成票,因為你會知道,如果方案失敗,第二天股價就會大跌,因為人們會懷疑埃隆是否會辭職,而這對公司是不利的。

  • So whether you believe in the package or not, the rational thing would be that you should vote for it.

    是以,無論你是否相信該方案,理性的做法是你應該投贊成票。

  • And then if you think it's a bad idea, maybe you sell your shares after you get a pop or something like this.

    然後,如果你覺得這不是個好主意,也許你會在爆倉或類似情況發生後賣掉股票。

  • Soand that's the obvious game theory on why Elon was going to win that vote no matter what.

    所以--這就是埃隆無論如何都會贏得投票的顯而易見的博弈論。

  • And it was really crazy that we listened to people in the media, and I'm not sure yourself, but we're all saying it was this harebrained thing, and the shareholders were all going to vote against it.

    我們聽信了媒體的報道,我不確定你自己,但我們都說這是一件愚蠢的事情,股東們都會投反對票,這真的很瘋狂。

  • And if you just did the basic analysis, it was obvious Elon was going to win the vote regardless of what the shareholders

    如果你只做基本分析,很明顯,不管股東們怎麼想,埃隆都會贏得投票。

  • What did you think of him investing in X? Did youhe thinksby the way, X is what he wantshe wanted PayPal to be.

    你對他投資X怎麼看?順便說一句,X 是他想要的,他希望貝寶是這樣的。

  • Did you give him money for that?

    你給他錢了嗎?

  • I – we didyeah, we didn't do anything on the Twitter one.

    我--我們做了--是的,我們沒有在 Twitter 上做任何事情。

  • We didn't do anything on the current XAI company.

    我們沒有對目前的 XAI 公司採取任何行動。

  • I guess there's sort of a lot of different things that have X in the name with Elon.

    我想,埃隆的名字裡有 "X "的東西有很多。

  • But yeah, it basically – I don't know.

    不過,基本上--我也不知道。

  • I think it was a incredibly – I do think we need like a broader surface area for debate in our society.

    我認為這是令人難以置信的--我確實認為我們的社會需要更廣泛的辯論空間。

  • And so I thinkand obviously there are all these very complicated tradeoffs between how much speech do you suppress, how much good speech are we suppressing, how much bad speech are we allowing, how do you get those tradeoffs right.

    是以,我認為--顯然,在你要壓制多少言論、我們要壓制多少好的言論、我們要允許多少壞的言論之間,存在著所有這些非常複雜的權衡,你該如何正確地權衡這些權衡呢?

  • Very, very hard to do.

    非常非常難做到。

  • My judgment is we should have just a lot more surface area for debate, discussion.

    我的判斷是,我們應該有更多的辯論和討論空間。

  • And I think what Elon did with Twitter was I think extremely important.

    我認為埃隆在推特上所做的一切非常重要。

  • And I support it as an ideological project.

    作為一個意識形態項目,我支持它。

  • I worry about it as a financial thing.

    我擔心的是經濟問題。

  • I don't know if that works.

    我不知道這樣行不行。

  • We've looked over the years.

    這些年來,我們一直在尋找。

  • We've looked over and over again at starting some kind of media company.

    我們曾反覆考慮過創辦一家媒體公司。

  • And there's always sort of this thought you could docan't you do something else in the sort of right-of-center media space?

    人們總是在想,你能不能在中右翼媒體領域做點別的什麼?

  • And does it have to all be as lame as Fox News?

    難道一定要像福克斯新聞那樣蹩腳嗎?

  • Isn't there an opening to do something else?

    難道就沒有別的機會了嗎?

  • And then the question you always have to ask is it the Murdoch family that keeps it lame or is it

    然後你總要問一個問題,是默多克家族讓它遜色,還是--

  • Why do you thinkyou called it lame.

    你為什麼認為--你說它蹩腳?

  • So why do you think it's lame?

    那你為什麼覺得它蹩腳?

  • I think it's lame because they're controlled by the advertisers, and there's a very narrow limit on what they can do.

    我認為這很蹩腳,因為他們受廣告商控制,能做的事情非常有限。

  • And then the Elon question with Twitter was are you really allowed to do this and keep the advertisers?

    埃隆對 Twitter 提出的問題是,你真的可以這樣做並留住廣告商嗎?

  • And so that's where

    這就是

  • Would you make it harder?

    你會增加難度嗎?

  • It's super important what Elon did as a nonprofit.

    伊隆作為非營利組織所做的一切超級重要。

  • But it's – yeah, it may notit's going to be tough as a business.

    但這--是的,這可能不是--作為企業會很艱難。

  • What about Truth Social?

    Truth Social 如何?

  • They have a few other problems they have to solve first.

    他們必須先解決其他一些問題。

  • Not something you'd invest in.

    不是你會投資的東西。

  • You get your head around the $6 billion valuation.

    60 億美元的估值讓人瞠目結舌。

  • If I wanted to secretly funnel money to the Trump campaign and get around the campaign limitations so the stock price goes up and he can sell some stock and fund his campaign, that might be a reason to invest.

    如果我想偷偷向特朗普的競選團隊輸送資金,繞過競選限制,這樣股價就會上漲,他就能賣出一些股票,為自己的競選活動提供資金,這也許是一個投資的理由。

  • Do you think people are doing that?

    你認為人們會這樣做嗎?

  • Probably not.

    可能不會。

  • They probably don't think of it in quite that literal term, but maybe that's what's going on.

    他們可能不會這麼想,但也許就是這麼回事。

  • Do you know people?

    你認識人嗎?

  • Have you talked to people in your realm who have said, hey, this is how we're going to get money?

    在你的領域裡,有沒有人跟你說過:"嘿,這就是我們要弄到錢的方法?

  • Nobody has said that, but, yeah, it's probably – I suspect a lot of the investors are going to vote for Trump.

    沒有人這麼說過,但是,是的,這很可能--我懷疑很多投資者會投票給特朗普。

  • So they're thinking about it at least on some subconscious, not articulated level.

    所以,他們至少是在潛意識裡,而不是在表述的層面上思考這個問題。

  • I want to talk about Trump – a little more about Trump in just one more second, but I want to ask you one last related social media question, which is the surgeon general was here in Aspen.

    我想談談特朗普--關於特朗普的問題稍後再談,但我想問你最後一個與社交媒體相關的問題,即外科醫生在阿斯彭的問題。

  • And I think you've probably seen in the last couple weeks that he came out and genuinely believes that social media and the Facebooks of the world really have done a real disservice to young people in the country.

    我想你可能已經看到了,在過去的幾個星期裡,他站出來真正地認為,社交媒體和世界上的 Facebook 真的對這個國家的年輕人造成了真正的傷害。

  • And I just wonder what you think of that as somebody who invested early in Facebook.

    我只是想知道,作為早期投資 Facebook 的人,你對此有何看法。

  • Man, there's – I think – I can't say that he's 100 percent wrong.

    夥計,我想--我不能說他百分之百錯了。

  • The place where I always push back on is that I feel it's too easy to turn tech or the social media companies into the scapegoat for all of our problems.

    我經常反駁的一點是,我覺得把科技或社交媒體公司變成我們所有問題的替罪羊太容易了。

  • And so, yes, there's probablythere is some kind of an interesting critique one can make of the tech companies.

    是以,是的,人們可能會對科技公司進行某種有趣的責備。

  • And if you ask how many of the executives in those companies, how much screen time do they let their kids use?

    如果你問這些公司的高管,他們會讓孩子使用多少螢幕時間?

  • And there's probably sort of an interesting critique one could make.

    或許還可以做出一些有趣的評論。

  • What do you do?

    你是做什麼的?

  • Not very much, and I think that's very

    不是很多,我認為這是非常重要的。

  • What's not very much?

    什麼不多?

  • An hour and a half a week.

    每週一個半小時

  • Hour and a half a week.

    每週一個半小時

  • Something like that.

    差不多就是這樣。

  • How old are your kids?

    你的孩子多大了?

  • Three and a half, five years.

    三年半還是五年

  • Three and a half and five years old, OK.

    三歲半和五歲,OK。

  • Butand I think that is sort ofif I had to do theif I were to make the anti-tech argument, it's that there are probably a lot of people in tech who do something quite similar for their own families, and thatand there's some questions that that might lead you to ask.

    但是,我認為,如果讓我來做一個反科技的論證,那就是可能有很多從事科技工作的人也在為自己的家庭做著類似的事情,這可能會讓你產生一些疑問。

  • And then on the other hand, I don't think this is the main cause for all the different types of social dysfunction we have, and maybe it's a 15%, 20% cause.

    另一方面,我不認為這是導致我們出現各種社會功能障礙的主要原因,也許這只是15%或20%的原因。

  • There's sort of a lot of other things that have gone super haywire in our society, and by putting all the blame onto tech or onto one company, you are really ignoring a lot of other stuff.

    在我們的社會中,還有很多其他的事情變得超級混亂,如果把所有的責任都歸咎於科技或一家公司,你就真的忽略了很多其他的事情。

  • We could do a whole panel on this, but one related question, because we haven't mentioned it, TikTok.

    我們可以就這個問題做一整個小組的討論,但有一個相關的問題,因為我們還沒有提到,那就是 TikTok。

  • Do you think of TikTok as a national security threat?

    您認為 TikTok 會威脅國家安全嗎?

  • It's – yeah, it's a verythere's something very strange going on, since obviously the TikTok algorithms for the U.S. are very different from the ByteDance algorithms in China.

    這是--是的,這是--非常奇怪的事情,因為美國的 TikTok 算法顯然與中國的 ByteDance 算法大相徑庭。

  • And so

    於是

  • Would you shut it down in this country?

    你會在這個國家關閉它嗎?

  • I think – I probably would lean towards a tougher response.

    我想--我可能會傾向於更強硬的迴應。

  • I think just to shift from the normative to the – I don't think we're going to do anything.

    我認為,僅僅從規範轉向--我認為我們什麼也做不了。

  • I met the TikTok CEO last summer, and I – the Singaporean guy, the TikTok CEO.

    去年夏天,我見到了 TikTok 的首席執行官,我就是那個新加坡人,TikTok 的首席執行官。

  • And I told him he didn't need to worry about it being shut down in the U.S., and maybe I'm wrong, but I think

    我告訴他不必擔心在美國會被關閉,也許我錯了,但我認為--

  • Because you don't –

    因為你不知道

  • Because it willwe are incompetent and slow and bureaucratic, and we will never get our act together in dealing with the problems of China until the day they invade Taiwan, and then it will be shut down within 24 hours.

    因為它會--我們無能、遲鈍、官僚,我們在處理中國問題上永遠不會振作起來,直到他們入侵臺灣的那一天,然後它將在 24 小時內關閉。

  • And since I think there's a 50-50 chance that China will invade Taiwan in the next five years, my advice to the TikTok CEO was you should take all your people and computers and get them out of China, because once Taiwan gets invaded, it'll be too late.

    我認為中國在未來五年內入侵臺灣的可能性是一半一半,所以我給 TikTok CEO 的建議是,你應該帶著你所有的員工和電腦離開中國,因為一旦臺灣被入侵,一切都為時已晚。

  • So that's my advice.

    這就是我的建議。

  • But you don't need to worry about us doing anything before then.

    但在此之前,你不必擔心我們會做什麼。

  • And then his somewhat – I'm not sure good or worrisome answer was that they had studied World War I and World War II very carefully, and there were a bunch of companies who were able to trade with all sides in those wars.

    然後他的回答有點--我不知道是好的還是令人擔憂的--是,他們非常仔細地研究了第一次世界大戰和第二次世界大戰,有一些公司能夠在這些戰爭中與各方進行貿易。

  • By the way, that implies that he also thinks that China is going to invade Taiwan.

    順便說一句,這意味著他也認為中國會入侵臺灣。

  • He did notyou know, again, it wasagain, I didn't frame it deterministically.

    他沒有--你知道,還是那句話--還是那句話,我沒有確定性地把它說出來。

  • I said 50 percent chance, five years.

    我說的是50%的機會,五年。

  • We are over time, but we're going to keep going just for a little bit, because I promised you we were going to talk a little bit about politics, and I want to talk about your own politics, your own personal politics.

    我們已經超時了,但我們還要繼續聊一會兒,因為我答應過你,我們要聊一聊政治,我想談談你自己的政治,你個人的政治。

  • You were very vocal and outspoken about supporting who is now the former president the last time.

    上一次,你曾直言不諱地支持現在的前總統。

  • You have been less outspoken this time.

    這次你沒有那麼直言不諱了。

  • We're all going to watch the debate tonight.

    我們今晚都要看辯論。

  • So before we even get into the lessons and everything that you've learned and all of your prior experience, are you planning to support the president this time?

    那麼,在我們開始討論你的經驗教訓和你之前的所有經歷之前,你這次打算支持總統嗎?

  • You know, I –

    你知道,我

  • The former president, I should say.

    應該說是前總統。

  • You know, you hold a gun to my head.

    你知道,你拿槍指著我的頭。

  • I'll vote for Trump.

    我會投票給特朗普。

  • I'll still – I'd rather have him vote than Biden.

    我還是寧願讓他投票,而不是拜登。

  • I'm not going to give any money to his super PAC.

    我不會給他的超級政治行動委員會一分錢。

  • I'm going to be less involved in all these ways.

    我將在所有這些方面減少參與。

  • And, man, look, it isand then I don't know.

    而且,老兄,你看,這是 - 然後我不知道。

  • I think Trump will win.

    我認為特朗普會贏。

  • I think he will win quite solidly.

    我認為他會穩操勝券。

  • I don't think it's going to even be close.

    我認為這根本不可能。

  • And then my pessimistic look-ahead function is after he wins, there will be a lot of buyer's remorse because the elections are A-B tests.

    我悲觀地認為,在他獲勝之後,會有很多買方後悔,因為選舉是 A-B 測試。

  • You know, if you ask me to make a pro-Trump argument, I wouldn't, but I can probably come up with anti-Biden arguments, and Biden is not going to make a pro-Biden argument.

    你知道,如果你讓我提出支持特朗普的論點,我不會,但我或許可以提出反對拜登的論點,而拜登是不會提出支持拜登的論點的。

  • He's going to make anti-Trump arguments.

    他將提出反特朗普的論點。

  • And it's these two different hate factories that we have targeted at each other, and that's the way the politics work.

    這就是我們互相針對的兩個不同的仇恨工廠,這就是政治的運作方式。

  • And my judgment is Trump will easily win that.

    而我的判斷是,特朗普將輕鬆獲勝。

  • But, yeah, the election is a relative choice.

    但是,是的,選舉是一個相對的選擇。

  • The post-election is absolute.

    選舉後是絕對的。

  • And then it will be like if Biden wins, how did we get this senile old man?

    如果拜登獲勝,人們就會說,我們怎麼會有這個老糊塗?

  • And if Trump wins, it will be, wow, this is

    如果特朗普獲勝,那將是 "哇,這是--"。

  • Can I just ask you this?

    我能問你一個問題嗎?

  • It's still like this clown show or whatever people will say.

    它仍然像這場小丑表演,或者人們會說的任何東西。

  • I'm not going to ask you to make the pro-Trump argument.

    我不會要求你提出支持特朗普的論點。

  • But that's sort of

    但這有點

  • I understand.

    我明白。

  • But let me ask you about what I imagine is your anti-Biden argument.

    但讓我來問問你,我認為你的論點是反對拜登的。

  • I look at the last four years and say to myself, if you were in Silicon Valley and you owned stock in these tech companies over the last four years, they virtually did nothing but go up.

    回顧過去四年,我對自己說,如果你在硅谷,如果你在過去四年裡持有這些科技公司的股票,它們幾乎什麼也沒做,只是在上漲。

  • And I knowand I just – I wonder if you can make the argument because we can talk about Lena Kahn and we can talk about regulations and potential taxes and all sorts of things, but it's hard for me to look at the last four years and say, especially if I was sitting I would imagine in your seat and say, this was a terrible travesty.

    我知道--我只是--我不知道你是否能提出這樣的論點,因為我們可以談論莉娜-卡恩,我們可以談論法規和潛在的稅收以及各種各樣的事情,但我很難回顧過去的四年,然後說,尤其是如果我坐在你的座位上,我想我會說,這是一個可怕的悲劇。

  • But maybe I don't understand.

    但也許我不明白。

  • Well, I mean, I don't know.

    嗯,我是說,我不知道。

  • This may not be believable to you, but I don't think it's – the only thing I care about is whether the country is good for the tech billionaires.

    你可能不相信這一點,但我不這麼認為--我唯一關心的是,這個國家對科技億萬富翁是否有利。

  • And I think there are a lot of people who have not experienced the last three or four years this way.

    我想很多人都沒有這樣經歷過過去的三四年。

  • I think one of the things Carville said in the earlier presentation just before this one that I thought was quite good was there's been a shocking loss of support by the Democrats in the 18- to 35-year voters, and it's because you can't get on the housing ladder.

    我認為卡維爾在這次發言之前的發言中有一句話說得很好,那就是民主黨失去了18至35歲選民的支持,這令人震驚,這是因為你無法進入住房階梯。

  • You canthe college debt's overwhelming.

    你可以的,大學債務壓得你喘不過氣來。

  • You can never get started.

    你永遠無法開始。

  • And so there's sort of a sense that

    是以,有一種感覺--

  • And you think you'd be able to fix that?

    你覺得你能解決這個問題嗎?

  • I don't – there's – I think it's just an up-down referendum on the incumbent at this point.

    我不認為--我認為--在這一點上,這只是對現任者的上下投票。

  • And my guess is that the sense is Biden's definitely not going to fix it and his time will run out, and that's –

    我的猜測是,拜登肯定無法解決這個問題,而他的時間也將耗盡,這就是--

  • And then this is where I'm not overly excited.

    然後,這就是我不太興奮的地方。

  • I don't think Trump will particularly fix it.

    我認為特朗普不會特別解決這個問題。

  • But, look, the place where people at thisin the audience here, I think, are just maximally divergent is, yes, the stock market has been great for people here.

    但是,聽著,我認為在座的聽眾們最大的分歧在於,是的,股市對這裡的人們來說一直很好。

  • You're in this wonderful bubble in Aspen where it's like

    你置身於阿斯彭這個美妙的泡泡中,就像--

  • I don't know if Clinton is still president, and it's 1995.

    我不知道克林頓現在是否還是總統,而且現在是 1995 年。

  • And everything is just getting better every day in every way, and it's like some New Age chant.

    一切都日新月異,就像新時代的歌謠。

  • If you just say that to yourselves, it's true.

    如果你們只是自言自語,那就是真的。

  • And then the part of the Trump statement that I think was the most offensive thing he said, it was very offensive not just to Democrats and to Republicans, and especially to Silicon Valley, was make America great again because that was a pessimistic slogan.

    我認為特朗普發言中最令人反感的部分是 "讓美國再次偉大",這不僅令民主黨人和共和黨人反感,尤其令硅谷反感,因為這是一個悲觀的口號。

  • It was the most pessimistic slogan a major presidential candidate ever had because what it says implicitly is this is no longer a great country.

    這是一位主要總統候選人有史以來最悲觀的口號,因為它隱含的意思是,這個國家不再是一個偉大的國家。

  • And that's what you are never supposed to say, especially if you're a Republican.

    這是你永遠不該說的話,尤其是如果你是共和黨人的話。

  • That's why the Bush people probably hate him more than anybody in this audience.

    這就是為什麼布什的人可能比在座的任何人都更恨他。

  • And then Silicon Valley wasit's somewhat offensive to people in New York City, but the bankers on Wall Street don't really think they're making the country a great place, so it's not personally offensive.

    然後硅谷--這對紐約人來說有些冒犯,但華爾街的銀行家們並不真的認為他們讓這個國家變得偉大,所以這並不冒犯個人。

  • It was personally offensive to Silicon Valley.

    這是對硅谷個人的冒犯。

  • And yet I always think there is this problem of stagnation.

    然而,我始終認為存在停滯不前的問題。

  • There is this problem we're stuck.

    我們被這個問題困住了。

  • There's a sense that we're not progressing in all these ways as a society as much as we have.

    有一種感覺是,作為一個社會,我們在所有這些方面都沒有像以前那樣進步了。

  • I don't think Trump has all the answers, but I think what I said in 2016 is the first step towards solving problems is to at least talk about them.

    我不認為特朗普有所有的答案,但我認為我在2016年說過,解決問題的第一步至少是談論這些問題。

  • What about the polarization part?

    極化部分呢?

  • The polarization part, the uncertainty part, the questions about democracy and the rule of law and the future of a country, and I think there's a lot of people who worry about those things.

    兩極分化的部分、不確定性的部分、關於民主和法治的問題以及一個國家的未來,我認為有很多人擔心這些事情。

  • Sure. Those are all still

    當然。

  • Those are things you probably wouldn't worry about if Biden was the president, right?

    如果拜登是總統,你可能不會擔心這些事情,對嗎?

  • I feel the country is still very polarized.

    我覺得這個國家仍然兩極分化嚴重。

  • It's been getting more polarized for decades.

    幾十年來,兩極分化越來越嚴重。

  • It was polarized against Bork in the 80s, and that was sort of a new crescendo in polarization.

    上世紀80年代,反對博克的聲音兩極分化,那是兩極分化的新高潮。

  • That's the way Fox News was polarized against the Clintons, and we've been – I don't know.

    福克斯新聞就是這樣兩極分化地反對克林頓夫婦的,我們一直--我也不知道。

  • It's always what's cause and effect.

    總是因果關係。

  • Is the polarization causing the stagnation, or does the stagnation lead to the polarization?

    是兩極分化導致了停滯,還是停滯導致了兩極分化?

  • I don't think the polarization just happens in a country where everything is growing.

    我不認為兩極分化只會發生在一個一切都在增長的國家。

  • Let me ask you a tonal question.

    讓我問你一個音調問題。

  • You come across as a very sensible, reasonable person, I think.

    我認為,你是一個非常理智、通情達理的人。

  • There are people here who I'm sure will disagree with you about lots of different issues, but my question about tone, about the president and the tone of the presidentby the way, I should say, and I'm not speaking out of school.

    我相信在座的有些人會在很多不同的問題上與你意見相左,但我的問題是關於語氣,關於總統和總統的語氣--順便說一下,我應該說,我不是在學校裡亂說話。

  • You also, I would say, by the way, you've been a Republican for a long time now, public about that.

    順便說一句,你也是共和黨人,這一點已經公開了很久。

  • You're also proudly gay, openly so, and I wonder if you can tie

    你也是個自豪的同性戀者,公開的同性戀者,我想知道你是否會打領帶。

  • I think there's a lot of people who say to themselves that President Trump, when he talks about some of the issues around LGBT issues in this country and other people, there are people in those communities who say they don't feel safe about it.

    我認為有很多人都會對自己說,特朗普總統在談到這個國家和其他國家圍繞男女同志、雙性戀和變性者的一些問題時,這些群體中的一些人說他們對此沒有安全感。

  • Yeah, well, we go through all these different versions of that.

    是啊,我們經歷了各種不同的版本。

  • I think – I mean there was never any thought of reversing gay marriage or any of those things, by Trump at least.

    我認為--我的意思是,至少特朗普從未想過要推翻同志婚姻或任何這些事情。

  • And I think theand look, I think theyeah, there are all these ways.

    我認為--聽著,我認為--是的,有所有這些方法。

  • They're not the way I would articulate these things.

    這不是我表達這些事情的方式。

  • But the sort of polite tone, there waspeople had attempted to say something's gone very wrong in our country.

    但是,那種禮貌的語氣--人們試圖說,我們的國家出了大問題。

  • The house is on fire. It's burning to the ground.

    房子著火了。燒得面目全非

  • We are a society in decline, stagnation, where – I mean maybe AI will save us, but this is like the way people talk about AI, just to come back to that.

    我們的社會在衰退、停滯,我的意思是,也許人工智能會拯救我們,但這就像人們談論人工智能的方式一樣,只是回到這個話題。

  • It's like if it doesn't lead to this cornucopian growth, I mean we're just completely going to be buried by budget deficits and debt for decades to come.

    這就好比如果它不能帶來這種玉米般的增長,我的意思是,在未來的幾十年裡,我們將完全被預算赤字和債務所埋葬。

  • And it's – like I think AI is a big thing.

    我認為人工智能是一件大事。

  • Is it big enough to solve our budget deficit problem?

    它足以解決我們的預算赤字問題嗎?

  • I don't believe it is.

    我不認為是這樣。

  • And so yeah, we have a lot of these problems.

    是以,是的,我們有很多這樣的問題。

  • And at some point, extra politeness is not quite the thing.

    而在某些時候,額外的禮貌並不那麼重要。

  • It was an inarticulate shriek for help.

    那是一種口齒不清的呼救聲。

  • And look, my sort of fantasy in 2016 in supporting Trump, this was where I was completely delusional, was this would be the way you start to have a conversation.

    聽著,我在2016年支持特朗普時的那種幻想,就是這樣開始對話,這完全是我的妄想。

  • And that's another reason why I'm off-ramping it.

    這也是我要停止使用的另一個原因。

  • I'd much rather have the sort of conversation we had here, because if I lean in all the way to support Trump, it'll be all about that and we can't talk about all these other things, which is the way we are going to substantively solve the problems.

    我更願意進行我們在這裡進行的這種對話,因為如果我一直支持特朗普,那麼對話就會只圍繞這一點,我們就無法談論其他事情,而這正是我們實質性解決問題的方式。

  • Well, I want to thank you for this conversation and for addressing all these issues.

    好吧,我要感謝你的這次談話,感謝你解決了所有這些問題。

  • It really was a phenomenal discussion.

    這真是一場精彩的討論。

  • Thank you so, so much.

    非常非常感謝。

  • All right. Thank you very much.

    好的 非常感謝 All right.非常感謝

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

Good afternoon, everybody. I'm Andrew Ross Sorkin. It is a privilege to have with me

大家下午好我是安德魯-羅斯-索金。很榮幸與我一起

字幕與單字
由 AI 自動生成

單字即點即查 點擊單字可以查詢單字解釋