The economy works like a simple machine, but many people don't understand it, or they don't agree on how it works, and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering.

經濟運行就像一臺簡單的機器，但很多人並不瞭解它，或者說他們並不認同它的運行方式，這就導致了很多不必要的經濟痛苦。

I feel a deep sense of responsibility to share my simple but practical economic template.

我深感有責任分享我簡單而實用的經濟模板。

Though it's unconventional, it has helped me to anticipate and to sidestep the global financial crisis, and it has worked well for me for over 30 years.

雖然這是個非常規的方法，但它幫助我預測並躲過了全球金融危機，而且 30 多年來一直行之有效。

Let's begin.

讓我們開始吧。

Though the economy might seem complex, it works in a simple, mechanical way.

雖然經濟看似複雜，但其運作方式簡單而機械。

It's made up of a few simple parts and a lot of simple transactions that are repeated over and over again a zillion times.

它由幾個簡單的部分和許多簡單的交易組成，這些部分和交易重複了無數次。

These transactions are, above all else, driven by human nature, and they create three main forces that drive the economy.

這些交易首先是由人性驅動的，它們形成了推動經濟發展的三大力量。

Number one, productivity growth.

第一，生產力增長。

Number two, the short-term debt cycle.

第二，短期債務週期。

And number three, the long-term debt cycle.

第三，長期債務週期。

We'll look at these three forces and how laying them on top of each other creates a good template for tracking economic movements and figuring out what's happening now.

我們將研究這三種力量，以及如何將它們疊加在一起，為追蹤經濟動向和弄清當前發生的事情提供一個良好的模板。

Let's start with the simplest part of the economy, transactions.

讓我們從經濟中最簡單的部分--交易開始。

An economy is simply the sum of the transactions that make it up, and a transaction is a very simple thing.

經濟只是交易的總和，而交易是一個非常簡單的東西。

You make transactions all the time.

你一直在做交易。

Every time you buy something, you create a transaction.

每次購買東西，都會產生一筆交易。

Each transaction consists of a buyer exchanging money or credit with a seller for goods, services, or financial assets.

每筆交易都包括買方與賣方用貨幣或信貸交換商品、服務或金融資產。

Credit spends just like money, so adding together the money spent and the amount of credit spent, you can know the total spending.

信貸消費與貨幣消費一樣，是以將貨幣消費和信貸消費加在一起，就可以知道消費總額。

The total amount of spending drives the economy.

消費總量推動經濟發展。

If you divide the amount spent by the quantity sold, you get the price.

如果用花費的金額除以銷售的數量，就得出了價格。

And that's it. That's a transaction.

就是這樣。這就是交易。

It's the building block of the economic machine.

它是經濟機器的基石。

All cycles and all forces in an economy are driven by transactions, so if we can understand transactions, we can understand the whole economy.

經濟中的所有周期和所有力量都是由交易驅動的，是以，如果我們能夠理解交易，就能理解整個經濟。

A market consists of all the buyers and all the sellers making transactions for the same thing.

市場由所有買方和所有賣方組成，他們為同一物品進行交易。

For example, there is a wheat market, a car market, a stock market, and markets for millions of things.

例如，有小麥市場、汽車市場、股票市場，還有數以百萬計的商品市場。

An economy consists of all of the transactions in all of its markets.

一個經濟體由其所有市場的所有交易組成。

If you add up the total spending and the total quantity sold in all of the markets, you have everything you need to know to understand the economy.

如果把所有市場的總支出和總銷售量加起來，你就掌握了了解經濟所需的一切資訊。

It's just that simple.

就是這麼簡單。

People, businesses, banks, and governments all engage in transactions the way I just described, exchanging money and credit for goods, services, and financial assets.

人們、企業、銀行和政府都以我剛才描述的方式進行交易，用貨幣和信貸交換商品、服務和金融資產。

The biggest buyer and seller is the government, which consists of two important parts, a central government that collects taxes and spends money, and a central bank, which is different from other buyers and sellers because it controls the amount of money and credit in the economy.

最大的買家和賣家是政府，它由兩個重要部分組成，一個是負責收稅和花錢的中央政府，另一個是中央銀行，中央銀行與其他買家和賣家不同，因為它控制著經濟中的貨幣和信貸數量。

It does this by influencing interest rates and printing new money.

它通過影響利率和印製新鈔來實現這一目標。

For these reasons, as we'll see, the central bank is an important player in the flow of credit.

由於這些原因，我們將看到，中央銀行是信貸流動的重要參與者。

I want you to pay attention to credit.

我希望你們關注信貸。

Credit is the most important part of the economy and probably the least understood.

信貸是經濟中最重要的部分，也可能是最不為人所知的部分。

It's the most important part because it's the biggest and most volatile part.

這是最重要的部分，因為它是最大、最不穩定的部分。

Just like buyers and sellers go to the market to make transactions, so do lenders and borrowers.

就像買賣雙方到市場上進行交易一樣，貸款人和借款人也是如此。

Lenders usually want to make their money into more money, and borrowers usually want to buy something they can't afford, like a house or a car, or they want to invest in something like starting a business.

放貸人通常想把他們的錢變成更多的錢，而借款人通常想買一些他們買不起的東西，比如房子或汽車，或者他們想投資一些東西，比如創業。

Credit can help both lenders and borrowers get what they want.

信貸可以幫助貸款人和借款人如願以償。

Borrowers promise to repay the amount they borrow, called principal, plus an additional amount, called interest.

借款人承諾償還借款金額（稱為本金），外加額外金額（稱為利息）。

When interest rates are high, there is less borrowing because it's expensive.

當利率高時，借貸就會減少，因為借貸成本高。

When interest rates are low, borrowing increases because it's cheaper.

利率低時，借貸會增加，因為更便宜。

When borrowers promise to repay, and lenders believe them, credit is created.

當借款人承諾還款而貸款人相信他們時，信用就產生了。

Any two people can agree to create credit out of thin air.

任何兩個人都可以同意憑空創造信用。

That seems simple enough, but credit is tricky because it has different names.

這似乎很簡單，但信貸卻很棘手，因為它有不同的名稱。

As soon as credit is created, it immediately turns into debt.

信貸一旦產生，就會立即變成債務。

Debt is both an asset to the lender and a liability to the borrower.

債務既是貸款人的資產，也是借款人的負債。

In the future, when the borrower repays the loan plus interest, the asset and the liability disappear and the transaction is settled.

將來，當借款人償還貸款和利息時，資產和負債消失，交易結算。

So why is credit so important?

那麼，為什麼信用如此重要？

Because when a borrower receives credit, he is able to increase his spending.

因為當借款人獲得信貸時，他就能夠增加支出。

And remember, spending drives the economy.

請記住，消費拉動經濟。

This is because one person's spending is another person's income.

這是因為一個人的支出就是另一個人的收入。

Think about it.

想想看

Every dollar you spend, someone else earns, and every dollar you earn, someone else has spent.

你花的每一美元都是別人賺的，你賺的每一美元都是別人花的。

So when you spend more, someone else earns more.

是以，你花得多，別人就賺得多。

When someone's income rises, it makes lenders more willing to lend him money because now he's more worthy of credit.

當一個人的收入增加時，貸款人更願意借錢給他，因為現在他更值得信貸。

A credit-worthy borrower has two things, the ability to repay and collateral.

信用良好的借款人有兩點，一是還款能力，二是抵押物。

Having a lot of income in relation to his debt gives him the ability to repay.

相對於他的債務而言，擁有大量收入使他有能力償還債務。

In the event that he can't repay, he has valuable assets to use as collateral that can be sold.

如果他無法償還，他還有有價值的資產作為抵押，可以出售。

This makes lenders feel comfortable lending him money.

這讓貸款人放心地把錢借給他。

So increased income allows increased borrowing, which allows increased spending.

是以，收入增加就能增加借貸，借貸增加就能增加支出。

And since one person's spending is another person's income, this leads to more increased borrowing, and so on.

由於一個人的支出就是另一個人的收入，這會導致更多的借貸增加，如此循環。

This self-reinforcing pattern leads to economic growth and is why we have cycles.

這種自我強化的模式導致經濟增長，也是我們有周期的原因。