My fascination with investing began when I was in my twenties.

我對投資的痴迷始於二十多歲時。

My brother, Andrew, and I had sold an apartment that we owned in London and I had to figure out what to do with this relatively modest windfall.

我和弟弟安德魯賣掉了我們在倫敦擁有的一套公寓，我必須想好如何處理這筆相對不多的意外之財。

I started studying the stock market and I quickly became obsessed.

我開始研究股票市場，並很快沉迷其中。

I wanted to become financially independent, but I didn't much fancy the idea of spending my life in an office, taking orders from an annoying boss.

我想在經濟上獨立，但我不喜歡一輩子待在辦公室裡，聽命於一個討厭的老闆。

And when I discovered the stock market, I thought, this is spectacular, I can get rich without getting my hands dirty.

當我發現股票市場時，我想，這太了不起了，我不用弄髒自己的手就能發財。

There was something almost magical about the idea that you could make money just by using your mind.

只要動動腦子就能賺錢，這種想法近乎神奇。

There was only one problem.

只有一個問題。

I had no idea what I was doing.

我不知道自己在做什麼。

I knew nothing about business or economics.

我對商業和經濟一無所知。

I have no mathematical skills at all.

我一點數學能力都沒有。

If I'm lucky, I can count to about eight with a calculator.

如果幸運的話，我可以用計算器數到八。

But I had one tremendous advantage, which is that I was a journalist, writing for magazines like Forbes and Fortune, which meant that I could actually interview all of these legendary investors who did know what they were doing.

但我有一個巨大的優勢，那就是我是一名記者，為《福布斯》和《財富》等雜誌撰稿，這意味著我可以採訪所有這些傳奇投資者，他們確實知道自己在做什麼。

Over the last 25 years, I've spent hundreds of hours interviewing more than 50 of the world's greatest investors, including many billionaires.

在過去的 25 年裡，我花了數百個小時採訪了 50 多位世界上最偉大的投資者，其中包括許多億萬富翁。

I got to do things like travel to the Bahamas to spend a day with Sir John Templeton, an 86-year-old billionaire who was probably the greatest international stock picker of the 20th century.

我可以做一些事情，比如去巴哈馬與約翰-鄧普頓爵士共度一天，這位 86 歲的億萬富翁可能是 20 世紀最偉大的國際選股家。

In the days after 9-11, when the world seemed to be falling apart,

在 "9-11 "事件後的日子裡，世界似乎正在分崩離析、

I got to spend several days with Bill Miller, who was the most famous mutual fund manager of his generation.

我和比爾-米勒（Bill Miller）共處了幾天，他是他那一代最著名的共同基金經理。

The stock market was crashing, but Miller was relaxed and cheerful.

股市暴跌，米勒卻輕鬆愉快。

I stood beside him, watching while he bet hundreds of millions of dollars on beaten down stocks that everybody else was desperate to sell.

我站在他身邊，看著他把數億美元押在別人都急於拋售的跌停股票上。

I remember saying to him, you've got to be so ballsy to do what you do.

我記得我對他說過，你一定要有膽量才能做你的工作。

And Miller said, yeah, but I've also got to be right.

米勒說，是的，但我也必須是對的。

So I became captivated by this tiny elite of great investors who defied gravity by beating the market over many years.

是以，我被這些偉大投資者中的極少數精英所吸引，他們多年來戰勝了市場，打破了地心引力。

I wanted to understand what insights, principles, character traits and habits enabled them to win, and could I become more like them?

我想了解是什麼見解、原則、性格特徵和習慣讓他們獲勝，我能否變得更像他們？

The greatest investors have taught me not only to invest better, but to think better, and possibly even to live better.

最偉大的投資者不僅教會我如何更好地投資，還教會我如何更好地思考，甚至可能教會我如何更好地生活。

They taught me that it's all about simplicity, subtraction, and not being a fool.

他們告訴我，一切都要從簡、做減法和不做傻瓜開始。

Let me tell you what I mean.

讓我告訴你我的意思。

One of the most famous investors I've interviewed is called Joel Greenblatt.

我採訪過的最有名的投資者之一叫喬爾-格林布拉特（Joel Greenblatt）。

His investment returns are the stuff of legend.

他的投資回報堪稱傳奇。

His hedge fund returned about 40% a year over 20 years.

20 年來，他的對沖基金每年的回報率約為 40%。

At that rate, $1 million turns into $836 million.

按此計算，100 萬美元將變成 8.36 億美元。

I think you'll agree it's a pretty nifty trick.

我想你會同意這是個非常巧妙的技巧。

A few years ago, I'm sitting on Greenblatt's patio in the shade in the Hamptons, and we're sipping iced tea, and I'm gazing out at his magnificent view of the Atlantic Ocean.

幾年前，我坐在漢普頓陰涼處格林布拉特的露臺上，我們喝著冰茶，我凝視著他遠處大西洋的壯麗景色。

Greenblatt is looking suntanned and relaxed.

格林布拉特看上去皮膚黝黑，神情輕鬆。

He's wearing jeans and loafers with no socks.

他穿著牛仔褲和休閒鞋，沒穿襪子。

And I say to him, what's the secret of investing?

我問他，投資的祕訣是什麼？

He says, William, it's incredibly simple, and it all comes down to this.

他說，威廉，事情非常簡單，歸根結底就是這樣。

He says, figure out what a business is worth, and then buy it for much less.

他說，搞清楚企業的價值，然後用更低的價格買下它。

That's it.

就是這樣。

I'm looking at him, and I'm thinking, this is so cool.

我看著他，心想：這太酷了。

Here's this guy who's cracked the code of how to beat the market.

這個人破解了如何戰勝市場的密碼。

He's distilled all of the complexity of investing into one simple principle.

他將投資的複雜性提煉為一個簡單的原則。

I don't need to waste my time trying to figure out whether the stock market is going to rise or fall.

我不需要浪費時間去猜測股市是漲是跌。

I just need to value a business, and then buy its stock for much less than it's worth.

我只需要對一家企業進行估值，然後以遠遠低於其價值的價格購買其股票。

But then I started to worry.

但後來我開始擔心。

The fact that this is simple doesn't mean that it's easy.

簡單並不意味著容易。

And when I started to think about this honestly,

當我開始誠實地思考這個問題時、

I had a really unsettling realization.

我有一個非常令人不安的認識。

I thought, well, I don't actually know how to value a business.

我想，我其實不知道如何給企業估值。

I'm not even that interested in valuing businesses.

我甚至對企業估值都不感興趣。

So I shouldn't be buying individual company stocks, because this is not a game that I'm equipped to win.

是以，我不應該購買個別公司的股票，因為這不是一場我有能力獲勝的遊戲。

And if there's one thing I've learned from the greatest investors, it's that you don't want to play games that you're not equipped to win.

如果說我從最偉大的投資者身上學到了什麼，那就是你不要玩你沒有能力贏的遊戲。

The more I started thinking about simplicity, the more I realized that it's a huge advantage to have a few simple, robust, deeply held beliefs, a simple set of guiding principles.

我越是思考 "簡單"，就越是意識到，擁有一些簡單、堅定、深刻的信念，一套簡單的指導原則，是一個巨大的優勢。

Why? Because we live in an extremely confusing world, and these simple principles can help us, they can guide us through the fog so we don't get too confused.

為什麼？因為我們生活在一個極其混亂的世界裡，而這些簡單的原則可以幫助我們，它們可以引導我們穿過迷霧，讓我們不至於太困惑。

I began to realize that the ability to keep things simple is actually a superpower.

我開始意識到，保持簡單的能力其實是一種超能力。

It's one of the secrets of success, both in investing and life.

無論是在投資還是生活中，這都是成功的祕訣之一。

Then I started to get excited, because I realized everywhere I looked, I found more examples of simplicity, in fact, thousands of years.

然後我開始興奮起來，因為我發現無論我看哪裡，都能找到更多簡約的例子，事實上，有數千年之久。

For example, I remember studying the Old Testament and learning that it contains 613 commandments.

例如，我記得在學習《舊約全書》時，瞭解到其中包含 613 條戒律。

And I thought, who can remember so many rules, let alone obey them all?

我想，誰能記住這麼多規則，更不用說全部遵守它們了？

That's when I realized, well, this is why we needed a top ten list, the ten commandments.

這時我才意識到，這就是為什麼我們需要一個十佳名單，即十誡。

But if you actually try to list the ten commandments, how many of them would you get right?

但是，如果你真的想列出十條戒律，你能答對幾條呢？

Thou shalt not kill, thou shalt not steal, thou shalt not covet thy neighbor's wife.

不可殺人，不可偷盜，不可貪戀鄰居的妻子。

The last time I tried this, I got three out of ten right, but I graded myself dishonestly and gave myself six out of ten.

上一次我試著這樣做時，10 分中我答對了 3 分，但我給自己打了不誠實的分數，給自己打了 6 分。

And I was wondering, does that actually violate one of the ten commandments?

我想知道，這是否違反了十誡中的一條？

And then I thought, I don't know, I can't remember.

然後我想，我不知道，我不記得了。

But then I realized, I remembered that there was a great sage 2,000 years ago who taught the most simple and timeless thing of all.

但後來我意識到，我記得兩千年前有一位偉大的聖人教導了最簡單、最永恆的道理。

The sage's name was Hillel, and he said he was asked to teach the entire Old Testament in the time that he was standing on one leg.

這位聖人名叫希勒爾，他說有人要求他在單腿站立的時間內講完整部《舊約全書》。

And he replied, do not do to your neighbor what is hateful to you.

他回答說，不要對你的鄰居做你所憎恨的事。

All the rest is commentary.

其餘的都是評論。

And you know what?

你知道嗎？

The Old Testament actually sums this idea up in just three Hebrew words, which translates as, and you shall love your neighbor as yourself.

實際上，《舊約全書》只用三個希伯來詞就概括了這一思想，翻譯過來就是 "你要愛人如己"。

Simple, right?

很簡單吧？

You bet.

那還用說。

Over the years, I saw that many of the greatest investors have this ability to simplify the game of investing.

多年來，我看到許多最偉大的投資者都有這種簡化投資遊戲的能力。

But what I also discovered is that they lead surprisingly simple lives.

但我也發現，他們的生活出奇地簡單。

I remember spending a couple of days with a famous investor named Tom Gaynor at his office in Virginia.

我記得曾與一位名叫湯姆-蓋納的著名投資人在他位於弗吉尼亞州的辦公室共度了幾天時光。

And it felt really like being in an extremely peaceful library.

這種感覺就像是在一個極其寧靜的圖書館裡。

At one point, Gaynor said to me, how many times have you heard my phone ring?

有一次，蓋諾對我說，你聽過我的電話響過多少次？

And I thought, actually, I haven't heard the phone ring more than once in the entire day.

我想，實際上，我一整天都沒聽到電話響過一次。

How come?

怎麼會這樣？

Well, Gaynor had actually consciously removed all of these distractions that could break his focus.

其實，蓋諾已經有意識地排除了所有這些可能分散他注意力的干擾因素。

Another time, I was with an investor named Laura Gerrits, and she's one of America's leading investors in foreign markets.

還有一次，我和一位名叫勞拉-格瑞茨的投資者在一起，她是美國在國外市場的主要投資者之一。

And I said to her, how do you structure your time?

我問她，你是如何安排時間的？

We're sitting there eating sushi in a restaurant in New York, and she says, well, every Friday is a creative day, and I don't schedule anything at all on Fridays.

我們坐在紐約的一家餐廳裡吃壽司，她說，每週五都是創意日，我在週五根本不安排任何事情。

And basically, she just goes to sit by a stream near her home in Utah, and she reads a book, she writes in her journal as a way of synthesizing her thoughts.

基本上，她只是坐在猶他州家附近的小溪邊，讀一本書，寫日記，以此來歸納自己的想法。

And Gerrits has traveled to about 75 countries, but she told me one of her favorite places on earth is a tiny, tiny island just off the coast of Australia, where there are only eight houses.

格利茨去過大約 75 個國家，但她告訴我，她最喜歡的地方之一是澳洲海岸附近的一個小島，那裡只有八座房子。

And she often retreats there with a stack of books, and she said, you actually have to get your groceries taken over there with you on a boat at the start of this trip.

她經常帶著一摞書在那裡閉關，她說，實際上，你必須在這次旅行開始時用船把你的日用品帶過去。

And she said to me, there's no internet access.

她對我說，這裡不能上網。

Her telephone, her cell phone, rarely works when she's there.

她在的時候，她的電話、手機很少能用。

But she said, that's just fine, because her disconnection from the noise and the hubbub and the mayhem and the frenetic pace of modern life is actually part of her competitive advantage.

但她說，這很好，因為她與嘈雜、喧囂、混亂和狂熱的現代生活節奏脫節，實際上是她競爭優勢的一部分。

It frees her up so that she can think, so that she can concentrate on the simple essence of her work, which is to analyze companies and to think about countries and stocks and what the future holds.

這讓她能夠解放思想，專注於她工作的簡單本質，即分析公司，思考國家和股票，以及未來會發生什麼。

What I started to realize is that all of the greatest investors have this obsession with reducing mental clutter so that they can focus on what's most important to them and what they're best at.

我開始意識到，所有最偉大的投資者都痴迷於減少頭腦中的雜念，這樣他們就能專注於對自己最重要和最擅長的事情。

And one way that you could describe this is actually the art of subtraction.

你可以用 "減法藝術 "來形容這一點。

And this idea of the art of subtraction has had a profound impact on my own life.

這種 "減法藝術 "的理念對我的生活產生了深遠的影響。

Like all of us, I'm constantly bombarded by emails and phone calls and Twitter notifications and Zoom meetings and all these other guilt-inducing reminders that I should constantly be doing more.

像我們所有人一樣，我經常被電子郵件、電話、Twitter 通知、Zoom 會議和所有其他令人內疚的提醒所轟炸，提醒我應該不斷做得更多。

And whenever I'm feeling scattered or stressed or overwhelmed,

每當我感到心煩意亂、壓力過大或不知所措時、

I remind myself of what I've learned from Gaynor and Gerrits, which is, I don't need to do more.

我提醒自己從蓋聶和格里茨身上學到的東西，那就是，我不需要做得更多。

I actually need to do less.

實際上，我需要做得更少。

I try to unclutter my schedule.

我試著整理我的日程安排。

I think about the few simple priorities that really will make a difference in my life.

我思考著真正能改變我生活的幾個簡單的優先事項。

Writing, reading, meditation, spending time with my family, exercise.

寫作、閱讀、冥想、陪伴家人、鍛鍊。

That's it.

就是這樣。

Pretty much everything else is peripheral.

其他幾乎都是周邊設備。

I'm always thinking, I'm always asking, how can I reduce complexity?

我一直在想，一直在問，怎樣才能降低複雜性？

How can I simplify my life?

如何簡化我的生活？

What can I subtract?

我能減去什麼？

There's one other very simple idea that's changed the way I think and live, and it comes from Charlie Munger, who has been Warren Buffett's partner for over 40 years.

還有一個非常簡單的想法改變了我的思維和生活方式，這個想法來自查理-芒格，他是巴菲特 40 多年來的合作伙伴。

Munger is one half of the most successful investment team that ever lived, and I was so excited to meet him that I actually traveled 3,000 miles to Los Angeles for a 10-minute interview.

芒格是有史以來最成功的投資團隊中的一員，我非常想見到他，是以不遠 3000 英里來到洛杉磯，接受了他 10 分鐘的採訪。

Munger was 93 years old, and he looked frail in this dark, baggy suit, but his mind was as beautiful as ever.

芒格已經 93 歲高齡，穿著這套深色寬鬆的西裝，顯得很虛弱，但他的心靈卻一如既往地美麗。

I'm sitting there almost knee-to-knee with this legendary icon, and he's peering at me through these spectacles, and he explains in this deep, croaky voice that what you really want to do in life is focus on one thing, focus relentlessly on this one thing, don't be a fool.

我和這位傳奇偶像坐在一起，幾乎是膝蓋挨著膝蓋，他透過眼鏡注視著我，用低沉、嘶啞的聲音解釋說，你一生真正要做的是專注於一件事，堅持不懈地專注於這一件事，不要做一個傻瓜。

Munger is one of the smartest people on earth, but he told me that he spent an inordinate amount of time focusing on actually reducing what he calls standard stupidities and idiotic behavior.

芒格是世界上最聰明的人之一，但他告訴我，他花了過多的時間關注如何真正減少他所謂的標準愚蠢行為和白痴行為。

What he explained to me is that it's very difficult to be smart, but it's actually surprisingly easy to be non-idiotic, and it gives you a tremendous advantage if you work systematically and consistently to reduce your own stupidity over the course of your lifetime.

他給我的解釋是，要變得聰明非常困難，但要變得不愚蠢其實出奇地容易，如果你在一生中系統地、持續地努力減少自己的愚蠢，就會給你帶來巨大的優勢。

But how?

但怎麼做呢？

Munger tends to collect many examples of disasters, and then he asks himself, what idiotic actions caused this terrible outcome?

芒格傾向於收集許多災難的例子，然後他問自己，是什麼愚蠢的行為導致了這一可怕的結果？

Once he's identified these idiotic actions, these foolish actions, he says, well, let me not do that.

一旦他發現了這些愚蠢的行為，這些愚蠢的行動，他就會說，好吧，讓我不要那樣做。

This habit of thinking first about what not to do turns out to be an incredibly helpful strategy when it comes to investing.

在投資時，這種先思考 "不應該做什麼 "的習慣是一種非常有用的策略。

If you want to be a successful investor, the first thing you want to do is say, well, how could I be a terrible investor?

如果你想成為一個成功的投資者，你要做的第一件事就是說，好吧，我怎麼會是一個糟糕的投資者呢？

Thanks to Munger, this is a method that I've used really consistently over several years.

多虧了芒格，這是我幾年來一直堅持使用的方法。

For example, we recently had a family dinner, and my daughter Madeline says,

例如，我們最近一起吃了頓家宴，我的女兒瑪德琳說："我不知道該怎麼做、

Dad, shouldn't you be buying Bitcoin?

爸爸，你不是應該買比特幣嗎？

And there's a part of me that's thinking, yeah, everyone's getting rich overnight, and cryptocurrencies are surging, and I want a piece of the action.

我的內心在想，是啊，每個人都在一夜暴富，加密貨幣也在飆升，我也想分一杯羹。

But then I remind myself, well, one thing that terrible investors do all of the time is they buy overheated assets that they don't actually understand just because they can't bear to miss out on the action.

但我又提醒自己，糟糕的投資者經常做的一件事就是，他們買入過熱的資產，而實際上他們並不瞭解這些資產，只是因為他們不忍心錯失良機。

Will Bitcoin continue to surge?

比特幣會繼續飆升嗎？

Is it a fad?

這是一種時尚嗎？

I don't know.

我不知道。

I have no idea.

我也不知道。

But I do know that betting, gambling, wildly and without any knowledge on whatever's hottest today, tends to be a standard stupidity.

但我知道，在對當今最熱門的事物一無所知的情況下，瘋狂地下注、賭博，往往是一種標準的愚蠢行為。

It's a fantastic way of getting yourself in trouble.

這是給自己找麻煩的絕妙方法。

And knowing that, I have a simple rule.

明白了這一點，我就有了一個簡單的原則。

I'm not going to do it.

我不會這麼做的。

As Munger told me, once you actually focus on systematically reducing standard stupidities in this way, it's an incredibly helpful way of just keeping yourself out of trouble.

正如芒格告訴我的那樣，一旦你真正專注於以這種方式系統地減少標準的愚蠢行為，它就是一種讓自己遠離麻煩的非常有用的方法。

But it turns out that this is a wonderful strategy, not only investing, but actually in life.

但事實證明，這不僅是投資的絕妙策略，也是生活中的絕妙策略。

Munger told me that if you want to have a happy life, you should start by looking at all of the idiotic behavior that is likely to guarantee that you'll have a miserable life, and then don't do that.

芒格告訴我，如果你想過上幸福的生活，你應該先看看那些可能會保證你過上悲慘生活的白痴行為，然後就不要去做了。

To give you an example,

舉個例子

Munger has this list of standard stupidities, of idiotic behavior that gets in trouble, where he says, okay, so don't become addicted to drugs and alcohol.

芒格有一份標準愚蠢行為清單，列出了會惹上麻煩的愚蠢行為，他說，好吧，那就不要沉迷於毒品和酒精。

You should be more reliable.

你應該更加可靠。

If you want to have a terrible life, be unreliable.

如果你想過糟糕的生活，那就做個不可靠的人。

Harbor grudges, harbor resentment, seek revenge.

心懷怨恨，懷恨在心，尋求報復。

And then he said, also indulge in envy, which he describes as the dumbest of the seven deadly sins, because it's not even fun.

然後他又說，也要沉溺於嫉妒，他把嫉妒描述為七宗罪中最愚蠢的一種，因為它一點都不好玩。

And I started to realize that, actually, this is an incredibly helpful strategy in my own life, and I really wanted to adopt it.

我開始意識到，實際上，這是對我自己的生活非常有幫助的策略，我真的很想採用它。

So recently, I was having dinner in New York City with a great investor named Matthew McLennan, and we drank two bottles of superb wine.

最近，我在紐約與一位名叫馬修-麥克倫南的優秀投資者共進晚餐，我們喝了兩瓶極品葡萄酒。

And I live about 45 minutes outside New York City, so I take the train home, and my car is sitting there waiting for me at the train station.

我住在離紐約市大約 45 分鐘車程的地方，所以我坐火車回家，我的車就停在火車站等我。

And it's about a seven-minute drive back to my house, and it's almost midnight.

開車七分鐘就到我家了，已經快到午夜了。

I'm tired, and I want to go to bed.

我累了，想睡覺。

But I'm thinking, am I drunk?

但我在想，我是不是喝醉了？

And I'm thinking, well, I don't think I'm drunk.

我在想，好吧，我不認為我醉了。

I don't feel drunk.

我不覺得醉。

But what's the downside if I'm wrong?

但如果我錯了，又有什麼壞處呢？

What happens if I'm stopped and I lose my driver's license?

如果我被攔下並丟失了駕照，該怎麼辦？

What happens if I hurt someone?

如果我傷害了別人會怎樣？

Then I ask myself, what would Munger do?

然後我問自己，芒格會怎麼做？

And the answer is pretty obvious.

答案是顯而易見的。

This is an idiotic bet.

這是一個愚蠢的賭注。

The downside is just catastrophic.

壞處就是災難性的。

So it's something I just shouldn't do.

所以這是我不該做的事。

I shouldn't drive.

我不該開車

So I call my son Henry, and he comes to pick me up.

於是我打電話給兒子亨利，他來接我。

And I leave my car at the train station.

我把車停在火車站。

What I've learned from The Greatest Investors is that nothing is more important than simply avoiding catastrophe.

我從《最偉大的投資者》中學到的是，沒有什麼比避免災難更重要。

Because if you want to succeed, both in markets and in life, the first rule is that you have to survive.

因為無論是在市場上還是在生活中，如果你想取得成功，第一條規則就是你必鬚生存下來。

You have to stay in the game.

你必須堅持到底。

Over the last 25 years,

在過去的 25 年裡

I've spent an inordinate amount of time interviewing The Greatest Investors.

我花了大量時間採訪 "最偉大的投資者"。

And when I started out, I thought, well, I had this fantasy that I was going to become fabulously rich.

當我開始創業時，我想，好吧，我有一個幻想，我將變得非常富有。

But interviewing all of these super-rich investors, the truth is that I gradually realized, well, the money is not that important after all.

但在採訪了這些超級富豪投資者之後，我逐漸意識到，錢畢竟不是那麼重要。

These are people who've hit the jackpot financially.