Name: 印度作為全球經濟大國的崛起 | 彭博原創馬拉松 (The Rise of India as a Global Economic Power | Bloomberg Originals Marathon)
Uploaded: 2024-06-11T04:58:11.000Z
Duration: 1 h 13 min 14 s

The Indian economy is booming. This year, the country's GDP is expected to grow between 6 and 7 percent.

印度經濟正在蓬勃發展。今年，印度的國內生產總值預計將增長 6% 到 7%。

India is the world's fastest-growing major economy. We see India growing from about $3.5 trillion in 2023 to about $7 trillion by the end of the decade.

印度是世界上增長最快的主要經濟體。我們認為印度將從 2023 年的約 3.5 萬億美元增長到本十年末的約 7 萬億美元。

Although the U.S. and China still dwarf the nation in terms of total gross domestic product, powered by a population of 1.4 billion, India could become the leader in global economic growth.

儘管美國和中國在國內生產總值總量上仍使印度相形見絀，但憑藉 14 億人口的優勢，印度有可能成為全球經濟增長的領頭羊。

Many of the world's investment banks have keyed in on India as a real prime investment destination right now.

世界上許多投資銀行都把印度作為當前真正的投資首選地。

With so much investment coming in, companies around the world may soon need to have an India strategy.

隨著越來越多的投資湧入，世界各地的公司可能很快就需要制定印度戰略。

But what will it take for the country to get ahead?

但是，國家要如何才能取得進步呢？

For now, China still holds the crown as the main driver for global economic growth.

目前，中國仍是全球經濟增長的主要驅動力。

Its economic opening in the late 70s only accelerated after 2001, when it joined the World Trade Organization.

70 年代末期的經濟開放只是在 2001 年加入世界貿易組織後才加速。

It was the country that attracted foreign investment. It was the driver of financial markets and global capital markets.

它是吸引外國投資的國家。它是金融市場和全球資本市場的驅動力。

Every company around the world needed a strategy to deal with China.

全球每家公司都需要制定應對中國的戰略。

India didn't start to liberalize its economy till the 90s, and it's been a slow climb since.

印度直到上世紀 90 年代才開始實行經濟自由化，此後一直在緩慢攀升。

But with current levels at about 7 percent, growing just a bit faster is all it needs to surpass China.

但目前的增長水準約為 7%，只要再快一點，就能超過中國。

India's per capita income has grown sevenfold from the early 90s to now.

從上世紀 90 年代初到現在，印度的個人所得增長了七倍。

There has been significant progress also in the financial markets.

These boxes represent economic growth in 2023.

這些方框代表 2023 年的經濟增長。

China, on the left, contributed close to a third, while India took second place.

左側的中國貢獻了近三分之一，印度位居第二。

But look at how this changes if India grew about one percent faster a year.

但是，如果印度的增長速度每年提高一個百分點，情況又會發生怎樣的變化呢？

到 2028 年，新的情況將是這樣的。

Geopolitics and China's own internal struggles are tipping this trend in India's favor.

地緣政治和中國自身的內部鬥爭正在使這一趨勢朝著有利於印度的方向發展。

What you're seeing recently is investors around the world, as they sort of shift out of China, are actually putting a lot of new funds into India.

你最近看到的情況是，世界各地的投資者在撤出中國市場的同時，將大量新資金投入印度。

Nowhere is this more evident than at the Samsung Noida factory on the outskirts of New Delhi.

這一點在新德里郊區的三星諾伊達工廠體現得最為明顯。

Now it's the world's largest mobile phone factory, producing 120 million handsets a year.

現在，它是世界上最大的手機工廠，每年生產 1.2 億部手機。

Samsung opened the plant in 2018, when business in China was becoming increasingly difficult.

三星於 2018 年開設了這家工廠，當時在中國的業務正變得越來越困難。

As the Chinese economy stumbles, businesses from Apple to Boeing are looking elsewhere, and at India in particular.

隨著中國經濟步履蹣跚，從蘋果公司到波音公司等企業都將目光投向了別處，尤其是印度。

India was growing fast enough to take the lead as recently as 2021, and the government says it can do it again.

印度的發展速度之快足以在 2021 年取得領先地位，印度政府表示，印度可以再次取得領先地位。

But first, it must overcome some major hurdles in these key areas, manufacturing, urbanization, workforce and infrastructure.

但首先，它必須克服製造業、城市化、勞動力和基礎設施這些關鍵領域的一些重大障礙。

For decades, China has been the world's dominant force in manufacturing.

幾十年來，中國一直是世界製造業的主導力量。

Manufacturing makes up 26 percent of China's economy, while in India it's only 16 percent.

製造業佔中國經濟的 26%，而印度僅為 16%。

The government aims that the share of manufacturing should grow up to 25 percent by 2025.

政府的目標是，到 2025 年，製造業的比重應增長到 25%。

To boost manufacturing, some 150 million Indians still working as farmers would need to move and take jobs at factories.

為促進製造業發展，約 1.5 億仍在務農的印度人需要搬遷到工廠工作。

Decades ago, both China and India had huge rural economies and were largely dependent on farming.

幾十年前，中國和印度都擁有龐大的農村經濟，主要依賴農業。

In the 1990s, China very rapidly urbanized its economy, moving away from a traditional rural agricultural economy and to a much more modern urban industrial economy.

20 世紀 90 年代，中國經濟迅速城市化，從傳統的農村農業經濟轉向更加現代化的城市工業經濟。

64 percent of China's population lives in urban areas.

中國 64% 的人口居住在城市地區。

There is a lot of progress already happening in terms of interconnectivity for the cities.

在城市互聯互通方面已經取得了很多進展。

More railway network, better infrastructure for airports and so forth.

更多的鐵路網、更好的機場基礎設施等等。

But there are crucial problems like water, like traffic, like urban housing that needs to be solved.

但還有水、交通、城市住房等關鍵問題需要解決。

An urban population supports a robust workforce.

城市人口支撐著強大的勞動力隊伍。

And in 2023, India overtook China as the world's most populous nation.

2023 年，印度將超過中國，成為世界上人口最多的國家。

And while China's population is aging, more than half of Indians are under 30, prime working age.

在中國人口老齡化的同時，一半以上的印度人還不到 30 歲，處於黃金工作年齡。

It is going to be harboring the youngest workforce in the world.

它將擁有世界上最年輕的勞動力。

Now, this is very important because history has shown that whenever demographic dividend is on the side of a country, that country grows really rapidly.

現在，這一點非常重要，因為歷史表明，只要人口紅利站在一個國家一邊，這個國家的發展就會非常迅速。

There's no point to having a large, young, growing population if you don't have enough jobs for them all.

如果沒有足夠的工作崗位，那麼擁有大量年輕且不斷增長的人口就毫無意義。

Unemployment in the country remains stubbornly high at around 7 percent.

該國的失業率仍然頑固地保持在 7% 左右。

And in part because of poor quality of education, about half of all college graduates remain unemployable.

部分原因是教育品質低下，大約一半的大學畢業生仍然無法就業。

On top of this, not enough women in India work.

除此之外，印度沒有足夠的婦女參加工作。

China has a female workforce of about 45 percent.

中國的女性勞動力比例約為 45%。

Closing the gender work gap could expand India's GDP by nearly a third by 2050.

縮小男女工作差距可使印度的國內生產總值到 2050 年增長近三分之一。

A lot of economists believe that if India can find enough jobs for all of these people, then really the sky's the limit in terms of what growth can be.

很多經濟學家認為，如果印度能為這些人找到足夠的工作，那麼經濟增長的空間將是無限的。

An increase in manufacturing will in turn create demand for more service jobs and incentivize people to join an urban workforce.

製造業的增長反過來又會創造對更多服務崗位的需求，並激勵人們加入城市勞動力大軍。

But to achieve this transformation, India needs infrastructure and lots of it.

但要實現這一轉變，印度需要基礎設施，而且需要大量的基礎設施。

For a long time, India has been plagued by inadequate roads, insufficient or poorly maintained railroads, not enough airports, not enough seaports.

長期以來，印度一直飽受道路不足、鐵路不足或維護不善、機場不足、海港不足的困擾。

So infrastructure is really one way in which China overtook India early.

是以，基礎設施確實是中國早早超越印度的一個途徑。

In the 90s, India's railway network was 15 percent bigger than China's.

上世紀 90 年代，印度的鐵路網比中國大 15%。

But as China's economy started growing, it quickly took the lead.

但隨著中國經濟開始增長，它很快就佔據了領先地位。

And its rail network is now 60 percent bigger.

The country's national highway network has expanded more than 50 percent since 2014.

自 2014 年以來，該國的國家高速公路網已擴大了 50%以上。

If India can address these challenges, then foreign direct investment will likely increase.

如果印度能夠應對這些挑戰，那麼外國直接投資就有可能增加。

That inflow of money is an essential driver of growth.

資金流入是經濟增長的基本動力。

But accomplishing all of this is no easy feat.

India also needs to increase its ease of doing business.

印度還需要進一步簡化經商手續。

The bureaucracy is such that it is not very easy to start a business in India and operate.

官僚作風嚴重，在印度創業和經營並非易事。

Even though the Modi government is behind on some of its goals, many in India remain optimistic that it can overtake China as the world's biggest driver of growth.

儘管莫迪政府的某些目標已經落後，但許多印度人仍然樂觀地認為，印度可以超越中國，成為世界上最大的經濟增長動力。

So one thing really working in India's favor more and more recently is simply that it's not China.

是以，最近對印度越來越有利的一點是，它不是中國。

The administration of Narendra Modi recognizes that the U.S. and other countries in the West are looking for a partner in the region that's not China to sort of partner at a time when China is growing more assertive in the region and more closed off to foreign companies and foreign investors.

納倫德拉-莫迪（Narendra Modi）政府認識到，美國和其他西方國家正在該地區尋找一個不是中國的合作伙伴，以在中國在該地區日益強硬、對外國公司和外國投資者日益封閉的時候建立合作伙伴關係。

India's prime minister makes the impossible possible.

He is very conscious of his image in history.

他非常注重自己在歷史上的形象。

He has completely seduced the Hindi-Hindu belt.

他徹底征服了印地語-印度語地帶。

Some view him as the most effective prime minister in the history of India.

有人認為他是印度歷史上最有作為的總理。

He is passionately worshipped by millions and hailed as one of the world's most popular leaders with approval ratings surpassing 70 percent.

他受到數百萬人的熱情崇拜，被譽為世界上最受歡迎的領導人之一，支持率超過 70%。

Democracy delivers and democracy empowers.

On the other hand, critics see him as an autocratic Hindu nationalist who marginalizes minorities and undermines democratic norms.

另一方面，批評者認為他是一個專制的印度教民族主義者，排擠少數民族，破壞民主準則。

The idea that India is a democracy, this is a lie.

印度是一個民主國家，這是一個謊言。

He is a champion to the poor and friend of billionaires.

他是窮人的擁護者，億萬富翁的朋友。

He has lifted millions out of extreme poverty even as the country's inequality continues to widen.

他使數百萬人擺脫了極端貧困，儘管該國的不平等現象仍在繼續擴大。

Former colleagues, bureaucrats and historians give us an inside view of the man who runs one of the world's most dynamic economies to understand how exactly he got here and why he is so polarized.

前同事、官僚和歷史學家為我們講述了這位世界上最具活力的經濟體之一的管理者的內幕，讓我們瞭解他究竟是如何走到這一步的，以及他為何如此兩極分化。

Narendra Damodar Das Modi was born on September 17, 1950 in the town of Varnagar, situated in the western Indian state of Gujarat.

納倫德拉-達莫達爾-達斯-莫迪於 1950 年 9 月 17 日出生於印度西部古吉拉特邦的瓦爾納加爾鎮。

Narendra Modi used to sell tea. I used to sell tea with Narendra Modi.

納倫德拉-莫迪曾經賣過茶。我曾經和納倫德拉-莫迪一起賣茶。

Friends, when I was a child, I used to sell tea in the train ticket box.

朋友們，我小時候曾在火車售票處賣過茶葉。

And today, I am standing in front of you.

Narendra Modi was born on September 17, 1950 in the town of Varnagar, situated in the western Indian state of Gujarat.

納倫德拉-莫迪於 1950 年 9 月 17 日出生於印度西部古吉拉特邦的瓦爾納加爾鎮。

An astrologer came here. I used to study in school.

一位占星家來過這裡。我以前在學校讀書。

So I gave one rupee to the astrologer in Bihar.

於是，我給了比哈爾邦的占星家一盧比。

He used to think he will become a great sage, a great leader.

他曾經以為自己會成為一個偉大的聖人，一個偉大的領袖。

Modi experienced a typical upbringing in a small rural town marked by relative poverty and an arranged marriage during his teenage years.

莫迪在一個相對貧窮的農村小鎮長大，青少年時期經歷了一場包辦婚姻。