Well, it finally happened.

好了，終於發生了。

After months and months of non-stop speculation,

經過幾個月不間斷的猜測、

Rishi Sunak has finally announced the date of the next UK general election.

Rishi Sunak 終於宣佈了下屆英國大選的日期。

In a statement outside Downing Street today, against a grey and drizzly backdrop for Thursday the 4th of July.

今天，在唐寧街外，在 7 月 4 日星期四灰濛濛的細雨背景下，我們發表了一份聲明。

Now, for many of you watching this video, you might feel like this came out of the blue.

現在，很多人在觀看這段視頻時，可能會覺得這一切來得太突然了。

And don't worry, it felt like this for everyone.

別擔心，每個人都有這種感覺。

Prior to Wednesday, there was virtually no chatter whatsoever about a snap election.

在本週三之前，幾乎沒有任何關於臨時選舉的討論。

The conventional wisdom remained that the most likely time for an election was towards the end of the year.

傳統觀點仍然認為，最有可能在年底舉行選舉。

However, things really began to speed up just before PMQs.

然而，就在首相問答前，事情才真正開始加速。

And by mid-afternoon, most journalists were convinced a big announcement was imminent.

到了下午時分，大多數記者都確信即將有重大消息宣佈。

Turns out, just this once, they were right.

事實證明，就這一次，他們是對的。

So in this video, we're going to have a look at what happened on Wednesday, why Sunak's thinking on the general election date changed, and what's likely to happen in the coming weeks and months.

是以，在這段視頻中，我們將看看週三發生了什麼、蘇納克對大選日期的想法為何發生了變化，以及未來幾周和幾個月可能發生的情況。

Before we start, if you haven't already, please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos.

在我們開始之前，如果您還沒有訂閱，請考慮訂閱並按鈴，以便在我們發佈新視頻時及時收到通知。

So let's start by explaining how all this actually happened.

是以，讓我們先來解釋一下這一切究竟是如何發生的。

Wednesday started with a rare economic win for Sunak.

週三一開始，蘇納克就取得了罕見的經濟勝利。

The Bank of England announced that inflation had fallen to 2.3%, the lowest figure in almost three years, and just over the bank's 2% target.

英格蘭銀行宣佈，通脹率已降至 2.3%，是近三年來的最低值，略高於該行 2% 的目標。

As expected, the government was keen to try and jump on this and claim it as their victory, with Sunak's own Twitter page posting this graphic.

不出所料，政府熱衷於試圖抓住這一機會，聲稱這是他們的勝利，蘇納克自己的推特頁面也發佈了這幅圖。

Now, this is important to bear in mind, as normally this is the sort of announcement that the government will want to keep in the news cycle for as long as possible.

這一點必須牢記，因為通常情況下，政府都希望儘可能長時間地發佈此類消息。

However, very quickly, journalists began to jump on the news that an unusual cabinet meeting was set to take place at 4.15pm, with ministers being told under no uncertain terms that they had to attend.

然而，很快，記者們開始捕捉到這樣一條消息：下午 4 時 15 分將舉行一次不同尋常的內閣會議，部長們被明確告知必須出席。

This meant that two separate cabinet ministers, Lord Cameron and Grant Shapps, had to either cut foreign trips short or cancel them altogether in order to attend.

這意味著卡梅倫勳爵和格蘭特-沙普斯兩位內閣大臣不得不縮短或完全取消國外旅行，以便出席會議。

This cabinet meeting was set to follow a meeting of Rishi Sunak and his special advisers at 2pm, and reportedly also a meeting with the king.

這次內閣會議將在下午 2 點舉行的 Rishi Sunak 及其特別顧問會議之後舉行，據說還將與國王舉行一次會議。

With all this speculation reaching fever pitch,

所有這些猜測都達到了白熱化的程度、

Sunak had two options.

蘇納克有兩個選擇。

Either kill the rumours entirely, or, in not doing so, fuel even more frenzied speculation that an election announcement was imminent.

要麼完全扼殺謠言，要麼在不這樣做的情況下，助長更加瘋狂的猜測，即宣佈選舉迫在眉睫。

He opted for the latter.

他選擇了後者。

Mr Speaker, speculation is rife, so I think the public deserve a clear answer to a simple question.

議長先生，各種猜測層出不窮，是以我認為公眾應該得到一個簡單問題的明確答案。

Does the Prime Minister intend to call a summer general election, or has he failed?

首相是否打算舉行夏季大選，還是他已經失敗了？

Aye.

是

As I have said repeatedly to him, there is, Mr Speaker, spoiler alert, there is going to be a general election in the second half of this year, and at that moment the British people will in fact see the truth about the hon. Gentleman opposite me, because that will be the choice at the next election, Mr Speaker.

議長先生，正如我多次對他說過的，今年下半年將舉行大選，屆時英國人民將看到我對面這位先生的真實情況，因為議長先生，這將是下一次大選的選擇。

A party that is not able to say to the country what they would do, a party that would put at risk our hard-earned economic stability, or the Conservatives that are delivering a secure future for our United Kingdom.

是一個無法向國家表明自己會怎麼做的政黨，是一個會危及我們來之不易的經濟穩定的政黨，還是一個為我們的英國帶來安全未來的保守黨。

The election speculation continued through the day, with further reports of meetings and appearances being cancelled, until finally, just after 5pm,

選舉猜測持續了一天，不斷有會議和露面被取消的報道，直到下午 5 點過後才最終平息、

Sunak stood in the rain in front of the famous Black Door, and, accompanied by an unwelcomed Labour anthem, finally put an end to all the guesswork.

蘇納克冒雨站在著名的 "黑門 "前，伴隨著不受歡迎的工黨頌歌，終於結束了所有的猜測。

Our economy is now growing faster than anyone predicted, outpacing Germany, France and the United States.

現在，我們的經濟增長速度比任何人預測的都要快，超過了德國、法國和美國。

And this morning it was confirmed that inflation is back to normal.

今天上午，通貨膨脹已恢復正常。

This means that the pressure on prices will ease and mortgage rates will come down.

這意味著房價壓力將有所緩解，抵押貸款利率也將下降。

Not long after this, we saw Keir Starmer, looking a lot drier, responding to Sunak's statement.

不久之後，我們看到基爾-斯塔默（Keir Starmer）看起來乾癟了許多，他對蘇納克的發言做出了迴應。

Tonight the Prime Minister has finally announced the next general election.

今晚，首相終於宣佈了下一次大選的時間。

A moment the country needs and has been waiting for.

這是國家需要的時刻，也是一直在等待的時刻。

And where, by the force of our democracy, power returns to you.

在這裡，通過我們的民主力量，權力重新回到你們手中。

A chance to change for the better.

一個向好的方向轉變的機會。

Your future, your community, your country.

你的未來，你的社區，你的國家。

Now it will feel like a long campaign, I'm sure of that.

現在，我可以肯定，這將是一場漫長的戰役。

But no matter what else is said and done, that opportunity for change is what this election is about.

但無論說了什麼，做了什麼，變革的機會才是這次選舉的意義所在。

Over the course of the last four years, we've changed the Labour Party, returned it once more to the service of working people.

在過去的四年裡，我們改變了工黨，讓它再次回到為勞動人民服務的軌道上來。

All we ask now, humbly, is to do exactly the same for our country and return Britain to the service of working people.

我們現在謙卑地要求的，就是為我們的國家做同樣的事情，讓英國重新為勞動人民服務。

This announcement actually raised more questions than it answered.

實際上，這一公告提出的問題比回答的問題更多。

The two main ones being why call it now and what happens next.

其中最主要的兩個問題是，為什麼要現在打電話，以及接下來會發生什麼。

So let's have a look at these in turn.

讓我們依次來看看這些問題。

Now it's not entirely clear why Sunak decided that today was the day to call the election.

現在還不完全清楚，為什麼蘇納克決定在今天舉行選舉。

However, we can speculate.

不過，我們可以推測一下。

The most obvious reason is that he thinks things are only going to get worse.

最明顯的原因是，他認為情況只會越來越糟。

While inflation has come down, it's still coming down slower than expected and interest rate cuts now look unlikely.

雖然通脹有所回落，但回落速度仍低於預期，目前看來不太可能降息。

Similarly, recurring problems with the Rwanda plan mean that there's no guarantee it'll get off the ground before the end of the year.

同樣，盧旺達計劃一再出現問題，這意味著無法保證該計劃能在年底前啟動。

And generally, small boat crossings are more prevalent in the summer months when the weather is more favourable.

一般來說，夏季天氣較好時，小船橫渡的情況更為普遍。

Another less obvious reason for wanting to call it sooner is that it just doesn't seem as though there'll be enough fiscal headroom for a big tax cut pre-election.

另一個不太明顯的原因是，似乎沒有足夠的財政空間在大選前進行大規模減稅。

Alongside the inflation figures this morning, the ONS demonstrated that public sector borrowing was one and a half billion pounds higher than last year and that borrowing in April had hit 20.5 billion pounds, the fourth highest since records began in 1993.

除了今天上午公佈的通脹數據外，國家統計局還顯示，公共部門的借貸比去年增加了 15 億英鎊，4 月份的借貸達到了 205 億英鎊，是 1993 年有記錄以來的第四高值。

This was significantly higher than the government were hoping for.

這一數字大大高於政府的預期。

The Office for Budget Responsibility, for instance, had assumed that borrowing would come in at 19.3 billion pounds.

例如，預算責任辦公室曾假設借款將達到 193 億英鎊。

What this meant for Sunak was that his main reason for holding out for an election later in the year so that he can cut taxes in the run-up to it had just dissolved.

這對蘇納克來說意味著，他堅持在今年晚些時候舉行選舉以便在選舉前減稅的主要理由已經不復存在。

Anyway, whatever Sunak was thinking, we now know when the election is, and we also know just how much there is for MPs to do in the next few weeks.

總之，不管蘇納克在想什麼，我們現在知道了選舉的時間，也知道了議員們在接下來的幾周裡有多少事情要做。

As things stand, Parliament is expected to be dissolved or prorogued next Friday, with MPs between now and then taking part in something known as the wash-up period.

目前的情況是，議會預計將於下週五解散或中止，從現在到那時，議員們將參加所謂的 "洗牌期"。

This is where the Commons desperately tries to rush through any remaining pieces of legislation still going through Parliament before dissolution or prorogation.

此時，下議院會拼命趕在解散或會期中止前通過議會仍在審議的剩餘立法。

Now, technically, MPs can also pass something known as a carryover motion, which saves the piece of legislation it's specifically been passed for from being lost.

現在，從技術上講，國會議員還可以通過一種被稱為 "結轉動議 "的東西，它可以使專門為之通過的立法免於失效。

However, these motions also need to be voted for prior to dissolution or prorogation, so will need to be sorted by next Friday.

不過，這些動議還需要在解散或會期中止之前進行表決，是以需要在下週五之前解決。

Once this is all done, or potentially even as this is happening, political parties will need to select their candidates.

一旦這一切都完成了，或者甚至有可能就在這一過程中，各政黨將需要挑選自己的候選人。

Due to the short nature of the campaign period, they won't have enough time to properly vet each of their candidates, so it's likely that throughout the five weeks campaigning period, and possibly even during the next Parliament itself, we'll see candidates called up for all sorts of previous behaviour that regular vetting would likely have caught.

由於競選時間較短，他們沒有足夠的時間對每位候選人進行適當的審查，是以很可能在整個五週的競選期間，甚至可能在下屆議會期間，我們會看到候選人因以前的各種行為而被傳喚，而正常的審查很可能會發現這些行為。

Now, this isn't the only by-product of a short campaign, though.

不過，這並不是短暫競選活動的唯一副產品。

We'll also likely see plenty of hastily written manifestos, last-minute debates, and a good deal of political communication gaffes.

我們還可能會看到大量匆忙撰寫的宣言、最後一刻的辯論以及大量政治溝通方面的失誤。

And don't worry, we'll be with you throughout the campaign period and beyond, bringing you explainer videos on everything from debates and party broadcasts to the manifestos and policy announcements.

別擔心，在整個競選期間及之後，我們都會與您在一起，為您帶來從辯論和政黨廣播到宣言和政策公告的解說視頻。

We'll be doing that not just here on the UK channel, but also over on the TLDR podcast channel, where the team will regularly analyse and dissect everything going on in the run-up to this historic election in our brand new podcast series.

我們不僅會在英國頻道這樣做，還會在 TLDR 播客頻道上這樣做，在我們全新的播客系列中，我們的團隊將定期分析和剖析這次歷史性大選前發生的一切。

The first episode will go live over there later today, so make sure you check it out.

第一集將於今天晚些時候在那裡播出，請務必收看。

Now, heading into the election, according to polls, it appears that the Conservatives will lose quite a lot of seats, leading to many MPs closing the chapter on their political career and retraining in another.

現在，大選即將開始，根據民意調查，保守黨似乎將失去相當多的席位，這將導致許多國會議員結束自己的政治生涯，另謀高就。

Luckily, our sponsor Brilliant is here to help.

幸運的是，我們的贊助商 Brilliant 可以提供幫助。

Brilliant is the STEM learning platform which can teach you all the skills you'll need in an increasingly digital workplace.

Brilliant 是一個 STEM 學習平臺，可以教給你在日益數字化的工作環境中所需的所有技能。

They've just introduced a whole collection of new programming and LLM courses, suitable for learners at any level, taking you through everything from learning Python to understanding the importance of training data.

他們剛剛推出了一整套新的編程和法學碩士課程，適合任何水準的學習者，從學習 Python 到了解培訓數據的重要性，應有盡有。

And Brilliant isn't just about memorisation and lectures.

而 Brilliant 不僅僅是背誦和演講。

Brilliant teaches you by doing, using active learning techniques to teach you the principles behind otherwise quite complex topics, and ensuring that you actually understand what's going on, with thousands of interactive lessons in maths, data analysis, programming and AI.

Brilliant 通過數學、數據分析、編程和人工智能方面的數千節互動課程，採用主動學習技術，向你傳授原本相當複雜的課題背後的原理，確保你真正理解其中的含義。

All of Brilliant's courses are split into easy-to-digest chunks, meaning you can quickly and easily gain real knowledge in just a few minutes a day, with fun lessons you can do whenever you have time, replacing mindless scrolling on the bus or waiting for coffee with something stimulating and rewarding.

Brilliant 的所有課程都抽成易於消化的小塊，這意味著您每天只需花幾分鐘就能快速、輕鬆地獲得真正的知識，而且只要您有時間，就可以學習有趣的課程，用刺激性和有意義的東西取代在公車上或等咖啡時無意識的滾動。

To gain access to Brilliant for free for a full 30 days, head to brilliant.org forward slash tldr, or click the link in the description.

要獲得輝煌 30 天的免費訪問權，請訪問 brilliant.org forward slash tldr，或點擊描述中的鏈接。

That way you'll also get 20% off an annual premium subscription and they'll know that you came from us, which really helps us out.

這樣，您還可以獲得年度高級訂閱 8 折的優惠，而且他們會知道您是從我們這裡購買的，這對我們非常有幫助。

Thanks to Brilliant for sponsoring this video, and thank you for your support.

感謝 Brilliant 贊助本視頻，感謝您的支持。