Name: 日本的大規模貨幣實驗已經結束。現在怎麼辦？ (Japan’s Massive Money Experiment Is Over. Now What?)
Uploaded: 2024-05-23T03:31:06.000Z
Duration: 8 min 46 s

Imagine a place where  everything money-related

想象一下，在這個地方，所有與錢有關的東西

基礎被動語態

程度副詞

the price of your unagi bowl doesn't change

and the interest rate on your home mortgage is closer to zero.

而您的住房抵押貸款利率則接近零。

Well, that was the reality here in Japan.

for some of the biggest  experiments in economics.

為經濟學中一些最重要的實驗服務。

像養老金領取者富子這樣的日本老人

and Suetaka, who runs a real estate agency,

和經營一家房地產中介公司的 Suetaka、

have experienced a rollercoaster of changes

the Bank of Japan, or the BOJ, raised rates.

So how did Japan decide to manage its economy

那麼，日本是如何決定管理其經濟的

so differently from the rest of the world?

And how is this massive shift going to disrupt

Japanese growth hasn't always been this stagnant.

日本的經濟增長並非總是停滯不前。

At one point, the economy was growing so fast

that it looked like it was about to overtake the US

Taro Kimura covers the Japanese economy for Bloomberg Economics.

木村太郎為彭博經濟報道日本經濟。

So here he is with a mini history lesson.

是以，他在這裡上了一堂小型歷史課。

economic miracle from the 1960s to early 1970s.

20 世紀 60 年代至 70 年代初的經濟奇蹟。

That growth was led by a huge domestic demand

這一增長主要得益於巨大的國內需求

because the middle class households were expanding.

And in the late 1980s, Japan's economy  actually accounted for

而在 20 世紀 80 年代末，日本經濟實際上佔全球經濟的

At the time, many were flush with cash  and reckless spending was the norm.

當時，許多人手頭寬裕，不計後果的消費成為常態。

By the end of the 1980s, the stock market  was on the up and up,

20 世紀 80 年代末，股市一路高歌猛進、

What was crazier was the real estate price.

For example, the land price of Tokyo's Imperial Palace

the BOJ sharply raised interest rates in 1989,

日本央行在 1989 年大幅提高利率、

trying to curb speculation and rein in inflation.

試圖遏制投機和抑制通貨膨脹。

The government also introduced measures  to cool the property sector.

政府還推出了為房地產行業降溫的措施。

Nikkei stock price index fell to half of its peak value,

日經股票價格指數跌至最高值的一半、

Authorities had tried to pump the brakes,

but instead they sent  the economy to a screeching halt.

wage growth and inflation for about three decades.

約三十年來的工資增長和通貨膨脹。

That means one generation full of people.

learned the concept of inflation  from a macroeconomic textbook.

從宏觀經濟教科書中學到了通貨膨脹的概念。

makes people attached to  a certain product with a certain price.

讓人們對某種價格的產品情有獨鍾。

A small amount of inflation  can help drive economic growth

Most economies target relatively mild inflation of about 2%.

大多數經濟體的目標通脹率在 2% 左右，相對溫和。

Japan's inflation stayed below that for a long time.

日本的通脹率長期低於這一水準。

the Bank of Japan followed  the typical playbook for central banks:

日本央行遵循了中央銀行的典型做法：

but it didn't help lift the country out of deflation.

但這並沒有幫助國家擺脫通貨緊縮。

In 2013, the BOJ decided  to do something drastic again.

2013 年，日本央行決定再次採取激烈行動。

It introduced the  Quantitative and Qualitative Easing policy,

它引入了定量和定性寬鬆政策、

and pump it into the market by aggressively  buying Japanese government bonds.

並通過積極購買日本國債向市場注入資金。

but Japan faced deflation again a couple years later,

但幾年後，日本再次面臨通貨緊縮、

so the BOJ went back to its box of tricks.

於是，日本央行又開始使出渾身解數。

The main goal was to deter saving and also

In response, the BOJ invented something  called yield curve control.

為此，日本央行發明了一種叫做收益率曲線控制的東西。

Yield curve control is an attempt that the BOJ

controls not only short-term, but also the long-term rates

不僅控制短期利率，還控制長期利率

don't have to worry about too much fluctuation in interest rates.

by threatening to buy bonds, without always having to actually buy them.

通過威脅購買債券，而不必總是實際購買債券。