for a long, long time.

很久很久。

But finally, the concerns are crystallizing.

但是，人們的擔憂終於有了具體表現。

This past quarter, Starbucks sales fell off of a cliff.

上一季度，星巴克的銷售額出現了斷崖式下跌。

This is "Heard on the Street,"

這是 "街談巷議"

and today we're talking about Starbucks.

今天我們就來談談星巴克。

(bouncy piano music)

(跳躍的鋼琴曲）

The suspicion is people are finally hitting a pain point

疑點是人們終於找到了痛點

with the expensive beverages at Starbucks.

星巴克的昂貴飲料。

This is the change in US foot traffic.

這就是美國人流量的變化。

You can see that Dunkin' grew quite a bit faster,

可以看出，鄧肯公司的發展速度要快得多、

and Dutch Bros, which is a fast expanding chain,

以及快速擴張的連鎖店 Dutch Bros、

grew far more quickly.

增長速度要快得多。

The overall growth in Starbucks

星巴克的整體增長

in the United States has slowed dramatically,

美國的經濟增長大幅放緩、

because they've reached a saturation point.

因為他們已經達到了飽和點。

It's growing, but it's not growing like it used to grow.

它在成長，但成長的方式已今非昔比。

They need China to succeed.

他們需要中國取得成功。

So Starbucks' long-term strategy in China

是以，星巴克在中國的長期戰略是

is to grow very quickly,

就是迅速成長、

because they know that the country's becoming more wealthy,

因為他們知道，國家正變得越來越富裕、

and that people like coffee culture.

人們喜歡咖啡文化。

Starbucks said in 2022, it wanted over the next three years

星巴克在 2022 年表示，希望在未來三年內

to open a cafe in China every nine hours,

每九個小時在中國開一家咖啡館、

which sounds bonkers, and it is,

這聽起來很瘋狂，確實如此、

except if you consider the fact that in China last year,

除非你考慮到去年在中國、

a brand new coffee shop opened,

一家全新的咖啡店開張了、

on average, every 20 to 30 minutes.

平均每 20 到 30 分鐘一次。

The problem is, Starbucks has a lot of competitors in China,

問題是，星巴克在中國有很多競爭對手、

all of a sudden, led by Luckin Coffee,

突然之間，在 Luckin Coffee 的帶領下、

which is the local champion.

是當地的冠軍。

How quickly is Luckin growing?

Luckin 的發展速度如何？

Well, here's a chart where you see Luckin in blue,

這裡有一張圖表，你可以看到藍色的 Luckin、

and Starbucks in green,

和綠色的星巴克、

and you can see they were pretty neck and neck,

可以看出，他們的實力不相上下、

which is problem enough for Starbucks.

這對星巴克來說已經夠麻煩了。

And then in 2023, Luckin went into total turbo overdrive

然後在 2023 年，Luckin 完全進入了渦輪超速狀態

in terms of new store expansion.

在新店擴張方面。

China is not over for Starbucks,

對星巴克而言，中國市場尚未結束、

but the growth story might be significantly diminished.

但增長前景可能會大打折扣。

For a stock like this,

對於這樣的股票

growth is really the most important thing.

增長才是最重要的。

In order for investors to pay growth stock prices for it,

為了讓投資者為其支付增長股價、

they need to expect it to continue growing quickly.

他們需要期待它繼續快速增長。

May was a wake up call for them where they saw

五月份給他們敲響了警鐘，他們看到

that the two primary growth engines,

這兩個主要增長引擎、

the willingness of Americans to pay more

美國人願意支付更多費用

and more for coffee, and the willingness of Chinese people

中國人願意喝咖啡，而且喝得越來越多。

to keep sampling this beverage,

繼續品嚐這種飲料、

and for them to dominate this new market,

並讓它們主導這個新市場、

have both disappointed.

都令人失望。

And if they don't fix one, and preferably both,

如果不能解決其中一個問題，最好兩個都解決、

it won't be the growth stock that it once was.

它將不再是曾經的成長股。

Just treading water, muddling along

躑躅不前，得過且過

is not going to be enough for investors in the stock.

這對股票投資者來說是不夠的。

(bouncy piano music)

(跳躍的鋼琴曲）