Name: 【看經濟學英文】中國不斷惡化的通貨緊縮如何威脅美國經濟 (How China’s Worsening Deflation Threatens the U.S. Economy | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2024-03-15T21:01:20.000Z
Duration: 5 min 23 s

This is a chart showing the change in consumer prices in China.

這是一張顯示中國居民消費價格變化的圖表。

As you can see, those prices have been falling a lot.

正如你所看到的，這些價格一直在下降很多。

程度副詞

Many economists are concerned that China is slipping into a period of deflation, often an even worse scenario than high inflation.

許多經濟學家擔心中國正在陷入通貨緊縮時期，這往往是比高通膨更糟糕的情況。

At the country's legislative session in March, Premier Li Qiang said Beijing would issue special treasury bonds to help stimulate economic growth.

在三月的全國人大會議上，國務院總理李強表示，北京將發行特別國債以刺激經濟成長。

But some investors are skeptical it will succeed.

但一些投資者對其能否成功持懷疑態度。

Here's why falling prices can be so dangerous, not just for China but also for the global economy.

這就是為什麼價格下跌不僅對中國而且對全球經濟如此危險。

To understand what's happening in China, let's look at Japan's recession in the 1990s or what many call its lost decade.

為了了解中國正在發生的事情，讓我們來看看 1990 年代日本的經濟衰退，或者許多人所說的「失落的十年」。

Japan in a way is the poster child for deflation that this huge sort of bubble in stock market and real estate burst.

從某種意義上說，日本是股市和房地產巨大泡沫破滅的通貨緊縮的典型代表。

Subsequent to that, the economy slowed down.

Prices fell, sending the economy into a deflationary spiral which can be really hard to escape.

物價下跌，使經濟陷入難以擺脫的通貨緊縮螺旋。

That's because when consumer prices fall, people expect them to keep falling.

這是因為當消費者價格下跌時，人們預期價格會繼續下跌。

So they're more likely to wait to make that big purchase until sometime in the future when it's cheaper.

所以他們更有可能等到將來某個時候再進行大額採購。

Lower spending means that companies make less profit that means they need less workers, so unemployment might go up.

消費減少意味著公司利潤減少，這意味著他們需要更少的員工，因此失業率可能會上升。

Spending gets even lower prices fall further.

消費進一步降低，價格進一步下跌。

So you get into this sort of vicious circle where prices are spending to sort of chase each other lower.

因此，你就陷入了這種惡性循環，價格互相追逐壓低。

One example of this was the Great Depression in the US, where deflation led to slow economic growth, then a big rise in unemployment.

美國大蕭條就是一個例子，通貨緊縮導致經濟成長緩慢，然後失業率大幅上升。

Japan, where working-age population growth was turning negative, didn't really struggle with unemployment.

日本的勞動年齡人口成長出現負成長，但並沒有陷入失業的困境。

There's very strong social pressure on companies in Japan not to lay people off in the way that there isn't in the United States and lots of other Western economies.

日本公司面臨非常強大的社會壓力，要求他們不要像美國和許多其他西方經濟體那樣裁員。

Japan's lost decade is also commonly referred to as a balance sheet recession.

日本失落的十年通常也被稱為資產負債表衰退。

A term coined by economist Richard K which means put simply that everyone had kind of run up an awful lot of debt, particularly companies in the preceding decade or so.

這是經濟學家理查德·K 創造的術語，簡單來說，每個人都背負了大量債務，尤其是在過去十年左右的公司。

And every penny they made went to servicing that debt.

他們賺的每一分錢都用來還債。

So companies stopped spending and investing. They stopped hiring.

所以企業停止了支出和投資，他們停止招人。

The Bank of Japan tried repeatedly over the years to stimulate economic growth from cutting interest rates to printing money.

日本央行多年來多次嘗試從降息到印鈔來刺激經濟成長。

But nothing quite got the economy back to where it was.

但沒有什麼能讓經濟恢復到原來的水準。

It took 34 years for its stock market to record a new high and the country's GDP per capita has hovered around $40,000 for a long time.

日本股市花了34年才創下新高，人均GDP長期徘徊在4萬美元左右。

Some economists say it's hard to pin down whether deflation is directly responsible for Japan's slower growth.

一些經濟學家表示，很難確定通貨緊縮是否是日本經濟成長放緩的直接原因。

Deflation is more of a problem, the longer it lasts.

通貨緊縮持續時間越長，問題就越大。

It's a difficult problem to definitely identify until possibly it's too late.

這是一個很難確定的問題，直到可能為時已晚。

That's what economists are afraid is happening right now in China.

這就是經濟學家所擔心的現在正在發生的事情。

中國去年的經濟增長率為 5.2%。

As far as China is concerned, it was not great.

I mean, China typically grows close to 6%, 7%.

我的意思是，中國的經濟增長通常接近 6%、7%。

Like Japan in the '90s, China is also experiencing a real estate bust.

與九十年代的日本一樣，中國也正在經歷房地產泡沫。

The economy got to a point where it really relied on state investment.

經濟已經到了依賴國家投資的地步。

The government decided that it had enough of this because there was too much debt building up.

由於債務積累過多，政府認為自己已經受夠了。

And so they made a big effort to try and squeeze developers, property developers access to credit and that was in 2020.

因此，他們在 2020 年做出了巨大努力，試圖擠壓開發商、房地產開發商獲得信貸的機會。

And since then, the property market has just kind of been in free fall.

從那時起，房地產市場就一直處於自由落體狀態。

Many households are seeing the value of their homes drop which is driving down spending.

許多家庭的住房價值下降，導致支出減少。

But unlike Japan, where real estate prices collapsed very quickly, in China, it's happening much more slowly.

但與日本的房地產價格暴跌速度非常快不同，中國的房價暴跌速度要慢得多。

One strange thing is prices haven't fallen quite as much as they ought to have, mostly because lots of local governments are propping them up.

一個奇怪的現象是，房價並沒有像它們應該降的那樣大幅下跌，這主要是因為許多地方政府在支撐房價。

And some economists certainly say that what needs to happen in China to get a real resolution to the real estate crisis is a much bigger fall in prices so that people start buying these apartments again.

一些經濟學家當然表示，要真正解決中國的房地產危機，中國需要做的是價格大幅下跌，讓人們再次開始購買這些公寓。

Economists are split on whether China's economy is just struggling due to some short-term factors and will soon work itself out.

對於中國經濟是否只是因為一些短期因素而陷入困境，以及很快就會恢復正常，經濟學家存在分歧。

Or if this deflationary trend is spreading.

或者這種通縮趨勢是否正在蔓延。

Falling prices were initially saw them very clearly in producer prices.

價格下跌最初在生產者價格中表現得非常明顯。

So the prices companies charge to take things out of their factories.

因此，公司將產品從工廠運出時收取的價格。

And then you started to see it in some categories of consumer prices, particularly things like pork, which is a big part of the Chinese diet and the important component of overall consumer price inflation.

然後你開始在某些類別的消費價格中看到它，特別是像豬肉這樣的東西，它是中國飲食的重要組成部分，也是整體消費價格通膨的重要組成部分。

Deflation in China isn't just a problem for China.

中國的通貨緊縮不僅是中國的問題。

It's also a problem for the rest of the world.

Weak consumer spending in China means exporters have to ship goods overseas to find buyers.

中國消費支出疲軟意味著出口商必須將貨物運往海外尋找買家。

And that's led to the price of Chinese exports falling too.

While cheaper prices are good for consumers, they're putting pressure on domestic manufacturers around the world because China can produce a lot of goods more cheaply.

雖然更便宜的價格對消費者有利，但它們給世界各地的國內製造商帶來了壓力，因為中國可以更便宜地生產大量商品。

In Europe, for instance, there's a lot of anxiety at the moment over automakers.

例如，在歐洲，目前汽車製造商存在著許多擔憂。

So Chinese companies are making a lot of cars, a lot of electric vehicles in particular and they're making them cheaply and they're selling them all over the world.

中國公司正在生產大量汽車，特別是大量電動車，而且它們的生產成本低廉，並將其銷往世界各地。

In response, countries like the US are imposing trade barriers against Chinese exports.

作為回應，美國等國對中國出口產品設置貿易壁壘。

The type of bonds that China plans to issue a stimulus are typically reserved for economic emergencies.

中國計劃發行的這種刺激性債券通常用於經濟緊急情況。

This is only the fourth time in the past 25 years that China has issued bonds like these.

這是中國在過去 25 年中唯四次發行此類債券。

The fact that the three previous such bond issuances each followed an economic crisis, speaks to the deep sense of urgency that officials are feeling right now.

前三次發行此類債券都是在經濟危機之後，這說明官員們現在深感緊迫。

They're very familiar with what happened in Japan are determined to avoid it, whether they're taking the right lessons from it, I think is uncertain.

他們非常熟悉日本發生的事情並決心避免它，但我認為他們是否從中吸取了正確的教訓還不確定。

Japan when it entered into deflation and stagnation was the second-largest economy in the world.

日本進入通貨緊縮和停滯時是世界第二大經濟體。

China is the world's second-largest economy and to have that slide into deflation and stagnation would mean lower global growth overall.

中國是世界第二大經濟體，如果陷入通貨緊縮和停滯，將意味著全球整體成長放緩。

So it definitely is a problem for the rest of the world.

所以這對世界其他地方來說肯定是個問題。

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【看經濟學英文】中國不斷惡化的通貨緊縮如何威脅美國經濟 (How China’s Worsening Deflation Threatens the U.S. Economy | WSJ)

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