Name: 傑里米-裡夫金談資本主義的沒落和物聯網。 (Jeremy Rifkin on the Fall of Capitalism and the Internet of Things)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:13:24.000Z
Duration: 10 min 29 s

We are just beginning to glimpse the bare outlines of an emerging new economic system, the collaborative commons.

我們才正要開始窺探這個新興經濟體系的樣貌－－協作分享

This is the first new economic paradigm to emerge on the world scene since the advent of capitalism and socialism in the early 19th century.

這是第一個自19世紀初期的資本主義與社會主義以來，出現在世界舞台上的新經濟模式

So it's a remarkable historical event. It has long-term implications for society.

所以這是劃時代的歷史大事。它對於社會而言有深遠的影響。

But what's really interesting is the trigger that's giving birth to this new economic system.

但真正有趣的是促發這個新經濟模式的引爆點

The trigger is something called zero marginal cost.

這個觸發點也就是俗稱的「零邊際成本」

Now, marginal costs are the costs of producing an additional unit of a good and service after your fixed costs are covered.

邊際成本是將固定成本回收以後，每生產一個額外附加單位的商品與服務所花費的成本

Business people are all aware of marginal costs, most of the public isn't.

生意人總是很在意邊際成本，但對多數大眾而言不是

But this idea of zero marginal cost is going to dramatically intimately affect every single person in the world

但這個零邊際成本的概念將會劇烈地、緊密地影響這世上的每一個人

in the coming years in every aspect of their life.

在這個接下來的時間、在每個人的人生的各個層面

There's a paradox deeply embedded in the very heart of the capitalist market system

但有個矛盾深深地存在於資本主義市場的核心之中

This paradox has been responsible for the tremendous success of capitalism over the last two centuries.

這個矛盾是過去這兩個世紀以來資本主義獲得極大成功的根本原因

But here's the irony, the very success of this paradox is now leading to an end game

但諷刺的是，這個成功的矛盾正導向一個終盤

and a new paradigm emerging out of capitalism is collaborative commons. Let me explain.

而從資本主義湧現出的新模式就是「協作分享」，容我做個解釋

In a traditional market, sellers are always constantly probing for new technologies

在傳統的資本市場中，賣家總是不斷地在探索新科技

that can increase their productivity, reduce their marginal costs

讓他們可以增加生產力，減少邊際成本

so they can put out cheaper products and win over consumers and market share

所以他們可以產出更廉價的產品，也可以贏得消費者與市場佔有率

and beat out their competitors and bring some profit back to investors.

也可以擊敗他們的競爭對手，並帶給投資者利潤

So business people are always looking for ways to increase productivity and reduce their marginal cost,

所以生意人總是在尋找方法來增加生產力與減少邊際成本

they simply never expected in their wildest dreams that there would be a technology revolution so powerful in it's productivity

他們從未曾在他們最廣闊的想像中預期到會有一場科技革命是如此有影響力的

that it might reduce those margins of cost to near zero

這樣的生產力也許會減少他們的邊際成本，減少到趨近於零

making goods and services essentially free, priceless and beyond the market exchange economy.

讓商品與服務是免費的、無價的，而且超越市場的交換經濟

That's now beginning to happen in the real world.

這就是現在在真實世界將要發生的事

The first inklings of this zero margin cost phenomenon was with the inception of the World Wide Web from 1990 until 2014.

第一個零邊際成本的現象是在1990年全球資訊網成立時露出端倪，直到2014

We saw this zero marginal cost phenomenon invade the newspaper industry the magazine industry and book publishing.

我們看到零邊際成本的現象衝擊了報紙與雜誌產業，以及圖書出版業

With the coming of the World Wide Web and the Internet

隨著全球資訊網的到來與網際網路的到來，

all of a sudden millions of people, then hundreds of millions of people,

突然間，從僅僅百萬的人、到數億的人

and now 40 percent of the human race with very cheap cell phones and computers

而到現在已有百分之40的人類擁有非常廉價的手機與電腦

they're sending audio, video and texting each other at near zero marginal cost.

他們互相傳送聲音、影片、傳訊息，以接近零邊際成本的方式

So what's happened is millions of consumers became prosumers with the advent of the Internet.

所以數百萬的消費者隨著網際網路的出現變成生產性的消費者。

And so they're producing and sharing their own videos, their own news blogs, their own entertainment,

而他們也生產、分享他們自己的影片、部落格、他們的娛樂、

their own knowledge with each other in these lateral networks at near zero marginal costs

他們的知識給彼此，在這些橫向的網路裡，以趨近於零的邊際成本

and essentially for free bypassing the capitalist market, in many instances altogether.

且基本上是免費的，在許多情況下全然避開了資本市場。

This zero marginal cost phenomena, as it invaded the information industries, wreaked havoc on big, big industries.

這個零邊際成本的現象，它入侵資訊產業，衝擊相當大型的產業

Newspapers went out of business; they couldn't compete with near zero marginal costs.

報紙產業無法經營下去；他們無法與零邊際成本競爭

Magazines went out of business. And my own industry publishing has been just wracked

雜誌受到衝擊。而我自己的出版產業也被

by free e-books and free knowledge and information.

免費的電子書、知識與資訊破壞。

But, you know, the strange thing about it is at first a lot of industry watchers said

但，你知道，奇怪的是它剛開始是很多產業觀察者眼中的

this is a good thing because if we give out more and more information goods free and people

好東西，因為如果我們給出更多免費的資訊，

are producing and sharing it free, these freemiums will stimulate people's appetite to want premiums

人們也免費的生產與分享，這些免費的東西會刺激人們的胃口，進而想要得到更進階的東西

and then upgrade this free goods and information by getting more customized information.

而便會透過取得更多客製化的資訊來升級這些免費的資訊與商品

I'll give you an example. Musicians give away their music free when they started to see this happen

我給你一個例子。當音樂人看到這件事情發生時，也同意讓他們的音樂免費

hoping that they would get a big loyal fan repertoire and then their fans would be enticed

期望他們可以得到一大群忠實粉絲，然後他們的粉絲會被吸引

to go to their concerts and pay premium in order to be there in person.

去參加他們的演唱會，並為了到場親身參與而額外付費。

And then, of course, we saw this with newspapers. The New York Times will give you ten free articles a month

然後，當然，我們在報紙上看到這些。紐約時代雜誌每個月給你十篇額外的免費文章

freemiums, hoping that you'll then upload upgrade to premiums and buy their subscription service.

這叫做免費增值，也就是期望你升級到進階的訂戶，並購買他們的訂閱服務

It didn't happen on any large scale. This was very naïve by industry watchers.

這並沒有達成任何大規模的成果。這對產業觀察者而言是很天真的。

Sure, some people have moved from freemiums to premiums but when more and more information goods

當然，有些人從免費升級到進階付費項目，但當越來越多資訊商品

are out there nearly free shared with each other, music, film, arts, information and knowledge

都已被其他人以近乎免費的方式分享時，包含音樂、電影、藝術、資訊與知識等都是免費的資訊產品

attention span is not there to then want to go to the premiums

就使得他們不太想要去取得更多進階服務

when you have so much available already in the freemiums.

當你在免費的範圍裡已經有這麼多資料可以取得時

So, economists have come back recently and said all right, we understand that information goods

所以，經濟學家最近回鍋並表示：好的，我們了解資訊商品

are moving towards near zero marginal cost devastating the newspaper industry, magazines, book publishing, et cetera,

正在邁向零邊際成本而侵入報紙、雜誌產業、圖書出版業等等，

but there's a firewall here that this new year zero marginal cost phenomenon on the Internet

但是這裡有一道防火牆，也就是這個在網路上的零邊際成本現象，

it won't pass the firewall into the physical world of physical goods and services

它不會越過這道牆進入實體物品與服務的現實世界

the brick and mortar world; the world of energy and physical products.

這個用磚和砂構成的世界；這個由能源和實體物品組成的世界。

That's no longer the case. There's a new technology revolution coming online that's making it possible

但是現在情況不同了。將會有個新的科技革命到來

for millions and soon hundreds of millions and eventually billions of people

會實現於百萬甚至很快地上億的、而最終達到十億的人們

to not only produce and share their own information goods but now energy and physical goods.

他們不僅可以生產、分享他們的資訊產品，也可以提供能源與實體物品

it's called the Internet of Things. This is the expansion of the Internet

這就叫做「物聯網」。這是網路的擴張

and it's all happening in the last 12 months. Now this is a pretty new phenomenon.

而這一切都在最近這12個月內發生。現在，這真的是一個很新的現象。

What's going on here is the traditional Internet that we're all so familiar with is now converging

接下來會發生的是我們非常熟悉的傳統網際網路將會

with a very fledgling energy internet and a nascent logistics and transport internet.

與一個非常新興的能源網路跟一個新生的物流與運輸網相互融合

And as these three Internets come together they're creating a single operating platform,

而當這三個網路互相結合的時候，它們會創造一個單一的運作平台、

a nervous system, a sort of intelligent brain. And they're taking this brain and they're

一個神經系統、某種智能大腦。他們在跟這個大腦說話，而且他們

attaching sensors now across the entire value chain of the economy to feed into this three Internets

連接著感應器，連接著整個經濟的價值鏈，將資訊注入至這三個網路之中。

energy, communication and logistics. So right now we have 13 billion sensors out there

能源網路、通訊網路與物流網路。所以，現在我們有130億個感應器

connecting appliances and things with human beings. We have sensors connecting resource flows in nature.

連接裝置，還有人們所擁有的東西。我們有感應器連接自然世界中的流動資源

We have sensors at warehouse and distribution centers.

我們在倉庫與物流中心也有感應器。

We have sensors on the smart roves monitoring traffic.

我們在智能材料上也有感應器，可以監控車流量。

We have sensors on the factory floor constantly keeping up-to-date information on the flow of production in the factories.

我們在工廠的地板也有感應器，持續的更新工廠裡的生產動向。

We have sensors in the front and back office, sensors in retail stores.

我們在前後的辦公室也有感應器、零售店也有。

We have sensors all across the system feeding big data back.

我們在系統裡面都有感應器，可以把大數據傳送回來

What's interesting is 13 billion sensors now, IBM says in 2020 we'll have 30 billion sensors

有趣的是，現在有130億個感應器，而IBM表示到2020為止會有300億個感應器

connecting everything with every being. And by 2030 the most recent forecast

連接所有人與所有東西。而最近的預測則表示到2030年，

we'll have a hundred trillion sensors connecting all of us in one vast lateral neural network made up of three operating engines.

我們會有一百兆個感應器，將我們全部連結在一個由三大網路所組成的巨型神經系統裡

A communication Internet converging with an energy and a logistics Internet.

由通訊網路與能源、物流網路相融合

And let me say one more thing about these three engines. When you look back at every society

再讓我說有關這三個網路的事。當你回顧每個階段的社會

their economic platforms always contained three elements, a form of communication,

他們的經濟平台總是包含著三個元素：一種通訊形式、

a form of energy to power a society and a form of mobility to move economic activity.

一種可供社會運作的能源和一種促使經濟活動的移動形式。

For example, in the 19th century the first Industrial Revolution their communication was steam power printing

比方說，在19世紀第一次工業革命時，他們的傳播方式是蒸汽動力印刷

and later the telegraph to move economic activity.

而後來則是電報促進了他們的經濟活動。

The form of energy was coal and steam power. The form of mobility was the locomotive and the railroads.

而能源的形式是煤炭與蒸氣。移動的方式則是火車與鐵路

And that platform allowed us to build out a first industrial revolution.

而那個平台讓我們打造出第一次的工業革命

In the 20th century we had these three as well, these components, communication, energy and mobility.

在20世紀，我們也擁有這三個要素，通訊、能量與移動

The communication was centralized electricity and especially the telephone and later radio and television.

通訊方面，我們擁有集中電力的技術，尤其像是電話與後來的廣播與電視

The form of energy was oil, and the mobility was the internal combustion engine.

當時的能源的形式是石油，而移動的形式是透過內燃機

And that platform then allowed us to have a great advance of economic opportunity

這個平台使我們在經濟機會上有相當大的進展

in the 20th century with the second Industrial Revolution. This expanse of Internet,

發生在第二次工業革命的二十世紀裡。而這個網路的擴展，

this Internet of Things brings us to a third Industrial Revolution.

「物聯網」帶給我們第三次的工業革命。

And the form of communication is the Internet. The form of power is renewable energy, distributed renewable energy.

我們溝通的方式是透過網際網路。能量則是透過可再生資源，分派可再生的能量。

And the form of mobility is driverless automated vehicles, logistics and automated drones.

而移動的形式是透過無人駕駛的自動運輸工具、物流與自動駕駛機

So what we're seeing is just the first inklings of this new platform, these three Internets in one.

所以我們看到的只是這個新平台的第一個表象而已，這三個網路合而為一

And what this allows us to do is any consumer can become a prosumer

而這個平台允許任何生產性的消費者

just like we did with information goods on the old Internet,

就像我們在之前的網際網路上對資訊產品所做的那樣，

access this new Internet of Things and have available to us a complete stream of data from every part of the economy.

進入這個新的物聯網，讓我們可以取得經濟結構中每一個層面的完整數據資料。

That means you and I, small cooperatives, small businesses, large companies, if it keeps its network neutrality

意即你和我、小型的合夥關係、小企業、大公司。如果物聯網繼續維持它的中立性

we all have equal access like we did with the Internet.

我們都擁有平等的近用權，就像我們在網際網路上所做的一樣。

So we can go up on this Internet of Things now and we can take that big data flowing

所以我們可以到這個物聯網上，也可以透過大數據

through the system from the devices all the way to these three Internets and any of us

透過系統內的裝置在這三個網路之中相互流動，而任何人