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  • A recent report for the real estate company Redfin shows most Americans can't afford 85% of the homes that are currently for sale here in the US.

    房地產公司 Redfin 最近的一份報告顯示,大多數美國人無法負擔目前 85% 在美國出售的房屋。

  • That is an increase of over 5% from 2022.

    與 2022 年相比,增幅超過 5%。

  • The company defined the average household median around $70,000 each year.

    該公司將平均家庭年收入中位數定義為約 7 萬美元。

  • And joining me now with more on this report is Chen Zhao.

    現在與我分享這份報告的更多內容的是 Chen Zhao。

  • She is the head of the economic research for Redfin.

    她是 Redfin 經濟研究主管。

  • Thanks so much for being with us.


  • Hi. Thanks for having me on.


  • So I want to start with asking what this report shows as factors that are driving this gap in affordability with the current real estate market the way that it is.


  • Yes, absolutely. So what we're finding is that about only about 16% of the homes that were available for sale in 2023 were affordable for the typical household and that's down from 21% in 2022.

    是的,一點沒錯。 我們發現,2023 年待售房屋中,只有約 16% 是普通家庭可以負擔得起的,這一數字低於 2022 年的 21%。

  • But importantly, if you look before 2022, that fraction was around 40% or even higher. - Wow.

    但重要的是,如果你看看 2022 年之前,這個比例約為 40% 甚至更高。 - 哇。

  • And what happened these last two years is that one: mortgage rates increased a lot.


  • So they increased from around 3% to a peak of about 8% in October and this was happening as the Fed was, you know, hiking interest rates to combat inflation.

    因此,它們在 10 月從 3% 左右上升到了 8% 左右的峰值,而這種情況發生的時候,聯準會正在升息以對抗通貨膨脹。

  • And then the second factor is that home prices increased a lot during the pandemic around 40% or so,

    第二個因素就是疫情期間房價漲了很多,大概在 40% 左右,

  • and they actually stayed high even as mortgage rates were increasing a lot, which was unexpected.


  • And the reason for that was because there were so few homes for sale so prices stayed really high.


  • So Chen, we're expecting rates to drop next year, is that going to be a good sign for the market?


  • Oh, yes, absolutely. So we do think that 2023 will probably be the bottom for affordability, and we do see affordability improving in 2024 for two reasons.

    哦,是的,絕對是。 我們認為 2023 年可能是負擔買房能力的谷底,並且我們看到有兩個原因使得 2024 年的負擔能力有所改善。

  • One is that, as you said, mortgage rates are likely to ease a little bit.


  • The FED has made it really clear that they're pivoting from rate heights to rate cuts now.


  • So we do think that mortgage rates will come down a little bit in 2024 not a time, not down to the pandemic era rates, but a little bit and that'll help.

    因此,我們確實認為抵押貸款利率將在 2024 年下降一點,不是一次,也不會下降到疫情時期的利率,但會有所幫助。

  • And we also think that home prices will come down a little bit, maybe 1% in 2024.

    我們也認為房價會略有下降,到 2024 年可能會下降 1%。

  • And that's because we think that, you know, existing homeowners will be increasingly listing their homes for sale.


  • So supply will come up a little bit in 2024, and that should help to bring down home prices just a little bit.

    因此,2024 年供應量將略有增加,這應該有助於稍微降低房價。

  • So if you're expecting home prices to go down, does that mean it's better to sell right away, if that's what you're hoping to do?


  • I think that if you are a seller, this is actually a pretty good time to list your home for a couple of reasons.


  • One, you know, prices might be coming down a little bit nationally, but, you know, I'm talking about a national average and, you know, the real estate market is very much local so, you know, conditions may differ a little bit, depending on where you are.


  • But secondly, there's not a lot of homes on the market right now, so if you are putting your home on the market, this is a good opportunity to be, you know, to not face a lot of competition.


  • Makes a lot of sense. Chen Zhao, thanks so much for your time. We appreciate this.

    很有道理。 Chen Zhao,非常感謝你抽出時間。 我們對此表示感激。

  • Thanks for having me on.


A recent report for the real estate company Redfin shows most Americans can't afford 85% of the homes that are currently for sale here in the US.

房地產公司 Redfin 最近的一份報告顯示,大多數美國人無法負擔目前 85% 在美國出售的房屋。

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