- Writer. - Singer.

- 作家。- 歌手。

Teacher.

老師。

I asked this question to colleagues, but for more than 20 years, that question has also been asked to millions of teenagers worldwide.

我問向同事們問了這個問題，但 20 多年來，全球數百萬個青少年也都被問了這個問題。

What job do you expect to be doing at 30?

你期望自己 30 歲時從事什麼工作？

Lawyer.

律師。

Journalist.

記者。

Managing a production company.

制作公司老闆。

This question is important because over time, it can tell us how a generation of young people thinks about the future.

這個問題很重要，因為隨時間推移，它能顯示出當代年輕人如何看未來的。

So how do actually 15-year-olds answer?

那實際上 15 歲的孩子們是怎麼回答的呢？

Let's find out.

讓我們拭目以待。

This visualization shows all the jobs 15 year olds listed in the year 2000.

螢幕上顯示了 2000 年時，15 歲孩子們列出的所有工作。

The top job was medical doctor, but there's also athlete, decorator, military officer.

最熱門的是醫生，但也有運動員、設計師、軍官。

Way lower on the list, there are jobs like pharmacist and real estate agent.

名單中排名靠後的還有藥劑師和房仲等工作。

There are so many jobs listed that researchers tried to simplify it by clustering the jobs into even broader categories.

清單上的工作之多，研究人員試圖通過將工作分類來簡化，歸納成更廣泛的類別。

Here's the top ten list for girls.

下面是女性期望工作的前十名。

Nearly half of all kids expected to do the same ten jobs.

近一半的孩子期望做同樣十種工作。

That was more than 20 years ago.

那是 20 多年前的事了。

So these kids are now in their mid-30s.

所以這些孩子現在已經 30 多歲了。

Did their expectations come true?

他們的期望有實現嗎？

Not really.

不盡然。

For example, about 11% of girls and about 5% of boys expected to be doctors.

比如說，約 11% 女性與約 5% 男性想成為醫生。

But these days, less than 0.5% of working age people in the countries where they did this survey are actually doctors.

但如今，國內不到 0.5% 做過這項調查的人真的成為醫生。

In 2018, this question was asked again to 15-year-olds, and this time to a much bigger group.

2018 年，他們又問了 15 歲孩子們這個問題，這次基數更大。

Again, the top answers were doctor,

同樣，排名靠前的工作是醫生、

lawyer,

律師、

athlete.

運動員。

And there were a bunch of other interesting jobs, too.

還有一堆其他有趣的工作。

When researchers simplified this list, half of all kids expected to do the same ten jobs again.

研究人員簡化這份清單後，一半孩子的期望工作竟然是同樣十種。

But from 2000 to 2018, one thing did change.

但從 2000 年到 2018 年，有件事的確變了。

In 2000, a portion of kids didn't actually name a job. About 14%.

2000 年，其實有部分孩子說不出想做什麼工作。他們約占 14%。

In 2018, that group jumped to 25%.

到了 2018 年，其佔比躍升至 25%。

Here's why that's a problem.

我來解釋一下為何這是個問題。

There's a great piece of research that tracked thousands of 8th graders starting in 1988.

從 1988 年開始，一研究追蹤數千名八年級學生。

They specifically focused on kids who had science related ambitions but were just average in math.

研究人員特別關注對科學方面有抱負，但數學能力一般的學生。

They compared that group to kids who had no science-related ambitions, but they were high achieving in math.

他們將這組孩子與沒有科學相關抱負，但數學很好的學生相比。

Turns out the kids with science-related ambitions were far more likely to get a science or engineering degree, even though they weren't as good at math.

事實證明，對科學行業有抱負的學生取得科學或工程學位的可能性更高， 儘管他們在數學方面沒有那麼優秀。

What this study showed was that ambition, even at an early age, plays a huge part in people's professional outcomes.

這項研究表明，即使是在小時候，野心對人們的職業成就也有著巨大的影響。

Part of why it's so important is that it helps them plan for the future.

影響之大的部分原因是，野心會推動人為未來打算。

For example, if they expect to have a job that requires a college degree, then they should make plans to go to college.

比如說，如果那份期望工作需要有大學學位才能做，那麼計劃上大學應該是理所當然的。

For that reason, the PISA survey also asks if kids expect to attend college.

因此，PISA 也調查了學生有沒有計劃上大學。

And it found something interesting.

他們發現了件有趣的事。

Among the kids who expect to have a job that requires a college degree, 1 in 5 had no plans to attend college,

在期望工作是需要大學學位的學生中，五分之一的人沒有上大學的計劃，

which means they probably won't be doing the job they expect to do.

這意味著他們應該不會從事他們期望的工作。

When teens expect to have a certain job, but they don't plan on getting the required education or experience,

這種期望從事某種工作，卻不打算攻讀相關學位或獲取相關經驗得現象，

researchers who study career paths call that misalignment.

研究職業走向的研究人員稱之為期望與現實的「錯配」。

One study of Australian teenagers found that kids who are misaligned at 15 were twice as likely to be unemployed or not in school at age 25.

一項針對澳洲青少年的研究發現那些在 15 歲時有這種情況的學生 25 歲時失業或不在學的機率是其他人的兩倍。

Another study tracked American 15-year-olds.

另一項研究則追蹤了美國 15 歲少年少女們。

They found that the students who were aligned or over-aligned, which means they plan to get more than enough education for their expected job,

他們發現，那些「錯配」度低的學生，也就是計劃取得比夢想職位基本要求更高學歷的人，

these kids had higher wages throughout their career compared to misaligned kids.

在整個職業生涯中，會擁有比「錯配」度高的學生更高的薪資。

But researchers who study these career pathways have a pretty good idea of things we can do to help students think more clearly about their future.

但研究職業走向的研究人員給出了能幫助學生們未來規劃更清晰的解法。

For one, young people need to explore various careers, maybe by visiting workplaces.

其一，年輕人需要探索各種職業，實際探訪工作場所是個不錯的選擇。

And it's useful if they've experienced a workplace by working part-time or volunteering.

實際去業界兼職或做志工會是很有用的經歷。

Those experiences should help them think about what job they expect to do and make plans accordingly.

這些經驗有助學生思考自己期望從事什麼工作，並制定相應計劃。

But most students don't get these opportunities.

但大多數學生沒有這些機會。

Only about 40% of students in this survey said they participated in job shadowing or worksite visits.

在此調查中，只有約 40% 學生表示他們參與過實習或工作場所訪問。

And a similar percentage of kids said they participated in job fairs.

差不多比例的學生表示自己參加過招聘會。

In other words, 15-year-olds aren't getting the support they need to answer this question.

換句話說，15 歲的學生們並沒有回答這個問題所需要的資源。

When we don't do the work of helping kids think through their futures, it's disadvantaged kids who suffer the most.

如果我們在這塊不去幫助學生們，受害最深的會是弱勢兒童。

Among the most affluent kids, only about 1 in 10 are misaligned.

家境好的孩子中，只有大約一成的人有「錯配」的情況。

But among the poorest kids, about 1 in 3 are misaligned.

但在貧困的孩子中，卻有約三分之一的人有此情況。

So we entrench the inequality that already exists.

這加強了已存在的不平等情況。

This is every kid who answered the survey in 2018.

這些是 2018 年接受問卷的孩子們。

The researchers also looked at which of these jobs are at risk of automation.

研究人員也研究了這些工作中，哪些面臨人力被自動化取代的風險。

It turns out about 40% of 15-year-olds expect to do a job at risk of automation in their country.

事實證明，約 40% 的 15 歲青少年所期望工作在其國家可能被機器取代。

When you were 15, what did you expect you would grow up to be?

你 15 歲時，期望自己長大後從事什麼職業呢？

It gets at this profound question of who you expect to be and what you expect the world to look like.

這涉及一個更深層的問題：你期望成為誰？你期望的世界又是什麼樣子呢？

Maybe it's not fair to ask 15-year-olds this question,

也許問 15 歲的孩子這個問題並不公平，

but fair or not, these surveys tell us they need more help coming up with their answers.

但無論公平與否，此調查讓我們了解孩子們需要更多幫助去思考出答案。