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  • In 2012, Zongchang Yu

  • left his job as an engineer at a company called ASML...

  • the only company in the world that can make this machine.

  • This machine makes the most advanced semiconductor chips

  • or microchips in the world.

  • After he left ASML

  • he started two new companies

  • one in the US and one in China.

  • US and ASML lawyers would later allege that

  • Yu recruited other ASML engineers to his US company...

  • that they brought with them

  • stolen information about AMSL's machine...

  • and that it was all backed by the Chinese government.

  • This story is just one small piece of China's

  • monumental effort to transform one of the world's most global

  • and significant industries: semiconductors.

  • But China's effort has increasingly locked it

  • in a struggle with the United States.

  • This isn't about market share.

  • This isn't about tariffs.

  • This is about security.

  • So how exactly did China and the US

  • enter into a Cold War over computer chips?

  • [pensive, driving electronic music]

  • [music fades]

  • This is the first semiconductor chip

  • invented in the 1950s by engineers in the US.

  • It's a piece of silicon with four transistors on it.

  • The more transistors, the more powerful the chip.

  • By 1960

  • engineers had already made one with four times the transistors...

  • and each year they figured out ways to add more.

  • So since the early 1960s, semiconductors

  • have improved at an exponential rate.

  • This is Chris Miller, author of Chip War.

  • The founder of Intel, Gordon Moore

  • predicted in 1965 that the computing power

  • produced by a single chip would double every year or so

  • and that rate has held true roughly up to the present.

  • The first companies dedicated to making chips were in the US

  • where they really just had one main customer:

  • the US government.

  • The first use cases were actually in guidance computers

  • that were in NASA's spacecraft

  • as well as in the missile system.

  • "The complex guidance equipment..."

  • "The system's electronic brain..."

  • Since chip companies were making better and better chips each year

  • the US government believed a deep partnership with them

  • would ensure that it always had access to the most advanced ones.

  • The US government has believed that computing has been a core

  • determinant of nations' power on the world stage.

  • You think about the ways that computing

  • has been used to crack codes in World War II

  • or to track Soviet submarines during the Cold War.

  • I think that judgment is correct.

  • At first, these chip companies handled the entire supply chain.

  • They designed the chips, manufactured them, and assembled them

  • into a package for installation into a product.

  • All within the US.

  • But by the late 1960s, they realized

  • they could make a lot more money

  • designing chips for civilian products

  • like corporate computers.

  • They just had to make a lot more of them

  • and a lot less expensively.

  • So many chip companies moved their manufacturing and assembly

  • to factories in Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong

  • where labor was cheaper.

  • And the US government encouraged them.

  • All these countries were US allies or partners

  • and this was a way to support their economies and deepen ties.

  • At the same time, it banned these chip companies

  • from sharing technology with its rivals:

  • the Soviet Union and China.

  • It was a way to keep them years behind the US as chips advanced.

  • Because of Moore's Law, advanced chips are

  • substantially better than previous generations.

  • If you're 5 years behind or 10 years behind

  • you're actually quite far behind the cutting edge.

  • But it wasn't long before these allied governments

  • began investing in their own chip companies.

  • In the 1970s and 80s

  • Toshiba in Japan and Samsung in South Korea

  • began designing and manufacturing chips

  • that rivaled the Americans'.

  • In the 1990s, a Taiwanese company, TSMC

  • got so good at manufacturing chips

  • that many companies in the US stopped doing it.

  • It meant that U.S. companies were not the only ones

  • who could make the most advanced chips anymore.

  • And every country's chip industry

  • was increasingly reliant on other countries for the materials,

  • software, and equipment needed to make more complex chips.

  • But while the US and its allies were pushing the limits

  • of chip technology...

  • China was lagging behind.

  • In addition to the US blocking it from accessing chips

  • during the Cold War

  • many of China's brightest scientists and engineers

  • had been driven out of the country

  • by the dictator Mao Zedong during the 60s and 70s.

  • But over the next few decades, new Chinese leaders

  • pushed to catch up.

  • By the 1990s, the Cold War was over.

  • The US had become friendlier with China

  • and it had lifted most of its export controls.

  • And so China enticed many chip companies

  • to move their assembly operations to China.

  • And by the 2000s, China dominated this end of the supply chain.

  • But China was importing more and more chips

  • to feed its assembly industry

  • and it put them in a tricky position.

  • The Chinese government had studied the tech supply chain

  • and they realized the entire Chinese tech ecosystem

  • relied on a foundation of imported silicon

  • from China's geopolitical adversaries

  • and the United States, from Japan, from Taiwan.

  • And China's leaders concluded

  • quite understandably, that this was a risk

  • they were unwilling to continue to take.

  • So the Chinese government poured money

  • into its own chip design and manufacturing companies...

  • which increasingly partnered with non-Chinese firms.

  • All on the hopes of creating a chip supply chain

  • that existed entirely within China.

  • Soon, China could design, manufacture and assemble

  • some older generations of chips, mostly on its own.

  • But it was still years away from making the most cutting edge chips.

  • This is one of those chips.

  • It's got around 114 billion transistors on it.

  • Remember in 1960, chips had 4.

  • Computing capabilities in the future

  • just like the capabilities of the past

  • will be deployed to military uses.

  • The problem is, only a few companies in the world

  • are involved in making them and none are in China.

  • To start, only 3 American companies

  • make the software needed to design advanced chips.

  • Then turning those designs into real chips

  • requires a machine that's only made by one company: ASML.

  • But this machine requires equipment that's only made in the US.

  • Finally, only companies in Taiwan and South Korea

  • can put it all together and manufacture the most advanced processor chips.

  • These companies are chokepoints in the supply chain...

  • and China was totally reliant on them for advanced chips.

  • In 2019, police in the US went to arrest Zongchang Yu

  • but couldn't find him.

  • Until he appeared later in China as the CEO of his company

  • that successfully made software like ASML's.

  • Thanks to help from the Chinese government

  • his company was flourishing.

  • And his story was just one of several instances

  • of IP theft in the chip industry.

  • The Chinese government has been

  • at the very least, passively supportive

  • but in some cases, actively supportive of IP theft

  • because the Chinese government realizes

  • is that its companies are in a position of relative weakness.

  • In order to eventually decrease its reliance on this foreign supply chain

  • China was identifying choke points like ASML and copying them.

  • But the plan backfired.

  • And this has really angered

  • the US government, other governments,

  • and caused them to take China's

  • subsidies as a more security focused issue

  • rather than just an economic issue.

  • This was happening at the same time

  • that the relationship between the US and China

  • was becoming less cordial and more competitive.

  • "China's market distortions

  • and the way they deal cannot be tolerated..."

  • "...a tremendous intellectual property theft situation..."

  • "...game on here..."

  • "...a trade war between the United States and China..."

  • "Trump says he plans to impose

  • a 10% tariff increase on China..."

  • "...if they don't want to trade with us any more

  • that would be fine with me."

  • In 2018, the Trump administration banned US companies

  • from selling components to ZTE, a Chinese tech company.

  • Then in 2019

  • it banned US companies from doing business with China's

  • biggest tech company: Huawei and its affiliates.

  • These bans nearly bankrupted ZTE

  • and dealt a significant blow to Huawei.

  • In 2022, the next president, Joe Biden, targeted

  • China's chip industry more broadly.

  • First, it banned all US companies from selling advanced chips to China

  • but it also blocked Chinese design companies

  • from using US made design software

  • and US made manufacturing equipment.

  • Plus, it banned global companies who use US semiconductor technology

  • from selling advanced chips to China as well.

  • The U.S was exploiting these choke points

  • to stop China's chip industry in its tracks.

  • These export controls represented

  • a really clear shift away from the view

  • that ultimately trade and tax exchanges with China

  • were fundamentally positive sum to a much more

  • zero sum view of the technological competition.

  • Next, the US passed a law that would invest billions of dollars

  • into its own chip manufacturing companies...

  • and finalized a deal with Taiwan's biggest manufacturer

  • TSMC, to build manufacturing plants in the US.

  • All to enable the U.S. to keep racing ahead.

  • China and the US have a pretty similar view of the political stakes

  • when it comes to semiconductors.

  • That's why the US government

  • has made it a priority to defend the US lead.

  • [pensive electronic music]

  • But this has also put extraordinary pressure on another conflict

  • between the two countries.

  • Since 1949, China has viewed Taiwan as a breakaway province

  • and has vowed to reunite with it, even threatening invasion.

  • The US has vowed to protect Taiwan.

  • But Taiwan also happens to own the most important choke point

  • in the chip supply chain.

  • Taiwanese companies manufacture 63% of all chips...

  • and about 92% of all advanced chips.

  • With companies that are indispensable

  • to both the US and Chinese chip industries

  • Taiwan has built itself some protection.

  • But the US export controls forced Taiwan's companies

  • to make a choice:

  • defy the US and keep selling to China...

  • or comply and cut off China from some of its chips.

  • So far, they've signaled they'll cut off China.

  • But as China and the US feud over chips

  • more and more choices like these are going to be imposed

  • on countries and companies around the world.

  • Asking them to pick sides in what looks a lot like

  • a new Cold War.

In 2012, Zongchang Yu

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芯片勝負來龍去脈(Why China is losing the microchip war)

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    BBC TSO 發佈於 2023 年 02 月 17 日
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