- In the world of investments,

- 在投資的世界裡。

would any reputable financial advisor suggest

任何有信譽的金融顧問都會建議

that you predict one scenario 10 years in the future

你預測未來10年的一種情況

and then build an investment portfolio

然後建立一個投資組合

based on that scenario?

基於這種情況？

Certainly not.

當然不是。

Any reasonable advisor would realize that the future

任何合理的顧問都會意識到，未來

is far too uncertain to predict.

是非常不確定的，無法預測。

Instead, the advisor would have multiple future scenarios

相反，顧問會有多種未來方案

in mind and continuously update them as new data emerged.

並隨著新數據的出現持續更新。

The advisor would then fluidly add and remove investments

然後，顧問將流暢地添加和刪除投資。

as the future developed.

隨著未來的發展。

That kind of approach also makes sense

這種方法也很有意義

when it comes to executing strategic workforce plans.

當涉及到執行戰略勞動力計劃時。

In this video, I'll show you how to use scenario planning

在這個視頻中，我將告訴你如何使用情景規劃

to think differently about strategic workforce planning.

以不同的方式思考員工隊伍的戰略規劃。

And I'll show you how to identify the kinds of questions

我將向你展示如何確定哪些類型的問題

you should ask when evaluating the usefulness

你在評估是否有用時應該問

of the SWP system that you have developed.

你所開發的SWP系統的。

Remember, the business environment isn't static,

請記住，商業環境並不是一成不變的。

it's volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous.

它是不穩定的、不確定的、複雜的和含糊的。

That's why it's important continuously to look two, three,

這就是為什麼要不斷尋找二、三的原因。

even five years into the future to ask questions like,

甚至是五年後的未來，提出這樣的問題。

"What will our organization look like

"我們的組織會是什麼樣子

in terms of the scale of its operations?"

在其業務規模方面？"

"What are the products or services we offer

"我們提供的產品或服務有哪些

and the markets we operate in?"

和我們所經營的市場？"

"What are the implications for talent?"

"對人才有什麼影響？"

"What are the number and kinds of skills we will need?"

"我們將需要的技能的數量和種類是什麼？"

"What are the jobs where our talent has to be better

"哪些工作是我們的人才必須做得更好的？

than competitors?"

比競爭對手？"

And, "Should we make or buy that talent?"

還有，"我們應該製造還是購買這種人才？"

As conditions change,

隨著條件的變化。

so also should your strategic workforce plans.

你的戰略勞動力計劃也應該如此。

The objective is to ensure that your organization

其目的是確保你的組織

is properly hedged against multiple possible

適當地對沖了多種可能的

future scenarios and risks.

未來的情景和風險。

In terms of evaluating SWP,

在評價SWP方面。

both qualitative and quantitative objectives

定性和定量的目標

can play useful roles.

可以發揮有益的作用。

In newly instituted SWP systems, for example,

例如，在新建立的SWP系統中。

consider asking questions such as

考慮問一些問題，如

"Are those responsible for SWP tuned into workforce issues

"負責社會福利計劃的人是否瞭解勞動力問題？

and opportunities?"

和機會？"

"Are their priorities sound?"

"他們的優先事項是否合理？"

"How strong are their working relationships

"他們的工作關係有多強

with line managers who supply data and use SWP results?"

與提供數據和使用SWP結果的部門經理？"

"How closely do they work with these managers

"他們與這些管理者的合作有多密切

on a day-to-day basis?"

在日常的基礎上？"

"Do decision-makers, from line managers who hire employees

"決策者，從僱用員工的直線經理，是否會

to top managers who develop business strategy,

到制定商業戰略的高層管理人員。

actually use workforce forecasts, action plans,

實際使用勞動力預測、行動計劃。

and recommendations?"

和建議？"

In more established SWP systems,

在更成熟的SWP系統中。

key comparisons might include actual staffing levels

關鍵的比較可能包括實際的人員配置水準

against forecast staffing requirements,

對照預測的人員配置要求。

actual levels of workforce performance

勞動力績效的實際水平

against anticipated levels of performance,

對照預期的業績水準。

action programs implemented against those that were planned.

落實的行動方案與計劃中的行動方案相比。

Were there more or fewer and why?

是多還是少，為什麼？

Action program costs against budgets

對照預算的行動方案費用

and the relative return on investment or ROI

和相對的投資回報率或ROI

of various action programs.

的各種行動方案。

Answers to these kinds of issues

對這類問題的回答

provide useful feedback to decision makers

向決策者提供有用的反饋

so they can improve the design and implementation

以便他們能夠改進設計和實施

of SWP going forward.

談到未來的社會福利計劃時，他說："我們的目標是要把社會福利計劃推向前進。

Remember, we do not have an infinite supply of any resource,

記住，我們沒有任何資源的無限供應。

people, capital, information or materials.

人員、資本、資訊或材料。

So we plan in order to reduce the uncertainty of the future.

是以，我們制定計劃，以減少未來的不確定性。

And it's important not only that we anticipate the future,

而且重要的是，我們不僅要預見到未來。

but also that we actively try to influence it.

但是，我們也積極嘗試影響它。

As management guru Peter Drucker once said,

正如管理大師彼得-德魯克曾經說過的。

"The best way to predict the future is to create it."

"預測未來的最好方法是創造它"。

Managing talent according to plan can be difficult,

按計劃管理人才可能是困難的。

but it's a lot easier than trying to manage talent

但這比試圖管理人才要容易得多。

with no plan at all.

完全沒有計劃。

(gentle upbeat music)

(輕柔歡快的音樂)