- Thinking strategically is meta thinking.

- 戰略性思考就是元思考。

It's thinking about thinking.

這是對思考的思考。

It is not responding to headlines.

它不是對頭條新聞的迴應。

It's not what CNN wants to talk

這不是CNN想要談論的內容

to me about on any given day, or Fox News.

對我來說，任何一天，或福克斯新聞。

It is instead trying to think about, for me,

對我來說，這反而是努力思考的問題。

where the world is heading.

世界正在走向何方。

That means pattern recognition,

這意味著模式識別。

lots of different macro themes at the country level,

在國家層面上有很多不同的宏觀主題。

at the company level, at the individual level,

在公司層面，在個人層面。

and how they create trade-offs

以及它們是如何產生權衡的

in leaders that are affected frequently by many of them,

在經常受到許多影響的領導人中。

but have very different priorities, needs, and timeframes.

但有非常不同的優先事項、需求和時限。

It's very easy to say, okay, I just saw this headline,

這很容易說，好吧，我只是看到這個標題。

and I have a large amount of personal history

和我有大量的個人歷史

and data, and that will allow me to immediately

和數據，這將使我能夠立即

frame what I think that means,

框住我認為這意味著什麼。

where I should place it in my existing worldview,

我應該把它放在我現有的世界觀中的什麼位置。

and is there any information there that's dissonant?

那裡有任何不和諧的資訊嗎？

That is completely un-strategic thinking?

這是完全沒有戰略意義的想法？

Strategic thinking is, what goes on outside of that?

戰略思考是，在這之外的事情是什麼？

It is how do I create my worldview?

它是我如何創造我的世界觀？

What would change it?

什麼會改變它？

What are the pieces that I prioritize?

哪些是我優先考慮的作品？

What are the ones that aren't so important?

哪些是不太重要的？

Why do I prioritize them that way?

我為什麼要這樣確定它們的優先次序？

Does that make sense today?

這在今天有意義嗎？

What's changed in the last 10 years or 20 years?

在過去的10年或20年裡有什麼變化？

The world changes so quickly,

世界變化如此之快。

and yet people don't revisit their worldview nearly

然而，人們幾乎沒有重新審視自己的世界觀。

as quickly as the world changes.

伴隨著世界的變化而迅速變化。

And yet, of course, you should revisit your worldview

然而，當然，你應該重新審視你的世界觀

on a continual basis, not because you were wrong,

在一個持續的基礎上，而不是因為你錯了。

I mean you may have been wrong,

我是說你可能錯了。

but much more likely is, you had some level of rightness.

但更有可能的是，你有某種程度的正確性。

You weren't analytically wrong.

你在分析上並沒有錯。

The world moved,

世界在動。

and if you are not moving, you're gonna become wrong.

而如果你不動，你就會變得錯誤。

I mean, one thing, any analytic view will become wrong

我是說，有一點，任何分析性的觀點都會變成錯誤的

over time, and strategic thinking, I think,

隨著時間的推移，以及戰略思維，我認為。

at its base is an effort to prevent that from happening.

其根本目的是努力防止這種情況發生。

(contemplative music)

(沉思的音樂)

Great strategic thinkers are curious and open.

偉大的戰略思想家都具有好奇心和開放性。

They are fine with being wrong,

他們對自己的錯誤無所謂。

admitting that they're wrong,

承認他們是錯的。

talking about what that means, and moving on.

談論這意味著什麼，並繼續前進。

They're also people that are very curious

他們也是非常好奇的人

about different worldviews.

關於不同的世界觀。

People that have respect for worldviews

尊重世界觀的人

and opinions, and analysis that are dramatically different

和意見，以及分析，都有很大的不同

from their own, and that engage with them,

從他們自己的，並與他們接觸。

those are people who tend to be good strategic thinkers.

這些人往往是優秀的戰略思考者。

I don't necessarily say opposing worldviews,

我不一定說反對的世界觀。

because worldviews don't need to be opposing.

因為世界觀不需要是對立的。

They just need to be different.

他們只是需要與眾不同。

I happen to be born in the United States,

我碰巧出生在美國。

and that of necessity gives me a worldview of that context.

而這必然會給我一個關於該背景的世界觀。

But if I same human being happen to be born in China,

但如果我這個人碰巧出生在中國。

would that give me an opposing worldview?

那會不會給我一個反對的世界觀？

No, I would be the same person,

不，我將是同一個人。

I'd just have a different worldview.

我只是有一個不同的世界觀。

People that are much more comfortable

更加舒適的人

simply following folks that confirm their priors

僅僅是關注那些證實他們的先見之明的人

may be outstanding tactical thinkers,

可能是傑出的戰術思想家。

but are not good strategic thinkers.

但不是好的戰略思想家。

Of course, this is not easy to do.

當然，這並不容易做到。

I mean, it's kind of like going

我的意思是，這有點像去

to the gym.

到健身房。

The first time is daunting.

第一次是令人生畏的。

Once you do it every morning,

一旦你每天早上都這樣做。

stopping doing it would feel daunting,

停止做這件事會感覺很艱鉅。

but you have to actually build up that training,

但你必須真正建立起這種訓練。

that practice,

這種做法。

and it takes time because your brain doesn't like it

這需要時間，因為你的大腦不喜歡它。

when you start engaging

當你開始參與

with things that you don't agree with.

與你不同意的事情。

It finds it unnerving.

它認為這讓人感到不安。

But if you do it enough, and you start breaking down

但如果你做得夠多，你就會開始分解

your own internal barriers to say, no,

你自己的內部障礙說，不。

it's not that I don't like this person.

不是說我不喜歡這個人。

It's not that that opinion turns me off.

這並不是說這種觀點讓我反感。

It's just that they come from a different story.

只是他們來自一個不同的故事。

They're not villainous, right?

他們不是小人，對嗎？

The fact that you're Israeli

你是以色列人這一事實

or Palestinian doesn't make the other person wrong,

或巴勒斯坦人並不意味著另一個人是錯的。

they're both heroes of their own stories,

他們都是自己故事中的英雄。

they just have different stories.

他們只是有不同的故事。

If you are prepared to understand, accept,

如果你準備理解，就接受。

and embrace that,

並擁抱這一點。

then you tend to be a better strategic thinker.

那麼你往往會成為一個更好的戰略思考者。

(contemplative music)

(沉思的音樂)

Nelson Mandela would probably be at the top of my list

納爾遜-曼德拉可能會在我的名單中名列前茅

in terms of global strategic thinkers.

在全球戰略思想家方面。

He is not only someone of extraordinary moral courage

他不僅是一個具有非凡道德勇氣的人

and personal conviction, he also is someone that recognizes

和個人信念的人，他也是一個認識到

for the long future of his country that he needed

為了他的國家的長遠未來，他需要

to put aside personal vendettas,

拋開個人恩怨。

and even the desire to meet out immediate justice

甚至是滿足即時正義的願望

in order to ensure

以確保

that his country had a future.

他的國家有一個未來。

He took the long view on values and ethics,

他對價值觀和道德觀的看法很長遠。

and human development in a way

和人類發展的方式

that very few political figures really do.

很少有政治人物真正做到這一點。

My only regret is that I never had the opportunity

我唯一的遺憾是，我從未有機會

to meet him personally.

親自去見他。

Maybe that allows me to lionize him more, because a lot

也許這讓我能更多地對他產生好感，因為很多時候

of world leaders who I have a lot of respect for

我非常尊重的世界各國領導人的名字

that I've spent a lot of time with personally

我個人花了很多時間在這上面。

do become more humanized in ways

變得更加人性化的方式

that don't always comport with how much you respect them

這並不總是與你對他們的尊重相吻合

once you've spent time with them.

一旦你和他們相處了一段時間。

That's not always true, but it's frequently true.

這並不總是真的，但經常是真的。

(contemplative music)

(沉思的音樂)

- [Narrator] To learn even more

- [旁白]要了解更多

from the world's biggest thinkers,

來自世界上最大的思想家。

get BigThink+ for your business.

為您的企業獲得BigThink+。