Since the end of the Second World War, the United States has been the world's superpower.

自第二次世界大戰結束以來，美國一直是世界上的超級大國。

And the strength of the U.S. dollar as the dominant international currency plays

而美元作為國際主導貨幣的力量發揮著作用。

a key role in its influence on the global stage.

對其在全球舞臺上的影響起到了關鍵作用。

Despite constant predictions of the dollar's demise,

儘管不斷有人預測美元會消亡。

nearly 60% of the world's central banks' foreign exchange reserves – the money to

cover unexpected financial emergencies – are invested in dollar-denominated assets.

應對意外的財務緊急情況--投資於以美元計價的資產。

The share of the US dollar as a global payment's currency is more than 40%,

美元作為全球支付貨幣的份額超過了40%。

while its share of international debt and loans are over 60 and 50% respectively.

而其在國際債務和貸款中的份額分別超過60%和50%。

Besides being the go-to currency for international financial transactions,

除了是國際金融交易的首選貨幣。

commodities such as oil are also bought and sold in U.S. dollars.

諸如石油等商品也是以美元進行買賣。

The dominance of the dollar in transactions extends to the U.S. banking system too,

美元在交易中的主導地位也延伸到了美國的銀行系統。

which is, in turn, influenced by America's fiscal and monetary policies.

反過來，它又受到美國財政和貨幣政策的影響。

And while that may seem like good news to Americans,

雖然這對美國人來說可能是個好消息。

it's bad news for much of the rest of the world.

這對世界其他地區來說是個壞消息。

Eswar Prasad is an economist at the Brookings Institution and a professor

埃斯瓦爾-普拉薩德是布魯金斯學會的一名經濟學家，也是一名教授。

at Cornell University. He's written about the enduring dominance of the U.S. dollar.

在康奈爾大學。他曾寫過關於美元的持久統治地位的文章。

So here's the paradox. The rest of the world despises, how dominant the dollar is yet,

是以，這裡有一個悖論。世界上其他國家都鄙視美元的統治地位。

they go to the U.S. dollar, because there really isn't much of an alternative.

他們轉而使用美元，因為真的沒有什麼選擇。

This is why the U.S. dollar is often referred to as the

這就是為什麼美元經常被稱為

cleanest shirt in the currency laundry basket.

貨幣洗衣籃裡最乾淨的襯衫。

Its attractiveness is due to a number of factors,

它的吸引力是由若干因素造成的。

including the size of the U.S. economy, and its reserve currency status among the world's

包括美國經濟的規模，以及它在世界各國中的儲備貨幣地位。

central banks and that it's ultimately proved to be a reliable source of economic growth.

中央銀行，並最終證明它是經濟增長的可靠來源。

When the U.S. economy is doing relatively well,

當美國經濟表現相對較好時。

compared to the rest of the world, the dollar strengthens.

與世界其他地區相比，美元走強。

But there is an additional feature - money flows into the U.S. dollar

但還有一個特點--資金流向美元

because it's seen as the safest currency to put money in during troubled times.

因為它被認為是在動盪時期將資金投入的最安全貨幣。

So all of this is ultimately going to entrench the dollar's dominance even further.

是以，所有這些最終都將進一步鞏固美元的主導地位。

That is certainly a serious problem for low-income

這對低收入者來說無疑是一個嚴重的問題。

countries that have high levels of foreign debt, especially dollar-denominated debt.

擁有高額外債的國家，特別是以美元計價的債務。

Developing nations are increasingly reliant on the U.S. dollar for borrowing and trade,

開發中國家在借貸和貿易方面越來越依賴美元。

which can have serious implications domestically, especially during times of turmoil.

這可能對國內產生嚴重影響，特別是在動盪時期。

When the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve,

當美國的中央銀行，即美聯儲。

started to raise interest rates in March 2022 to combat inflation,

在2022年3月開始提高利率，以打擊通貨膨脹。

investors flocked to U.S. dollar-denominated investments such as bonds and fixed deposits.

投資者湧向以美元計價的投資，如債券和定期存款。

The U.S. dollar index, which weighs the USD against a basket of six currencies,

美元指數，衡量美元對一籃子六種貨幣的匯率。

would eventually hit a record 20-year high in September of 2022,

最終將在2022年9月創下20年來的新高。

feeding into inflationary pressures abroad.

導致國外的通貨膨脹壓力。

Many low-income countries that borrowed in dollars to import necessities like

許多低收入國家以美元借款來進口必需品，如

food and oil soon got into difficulty. Average consumer prices globally grew by

食品和石油很快陷入困境。全球平均消費價格增長了

nearly 9%, and in the case of Sri Lanka, it registered a 50-percentage point increase.

近9%，而在斯里蘭卡，它登記了50個百分點的增長。

As prices increased, the dollar reserves held by these countries began to run dangerously low.

隨著價格的上漲，這些國家所持有的美元儲備開始危險地減少。

Depleting reserves contributed to the worst economic crisis in Sri Lanka's

儲備的枯竭導致了斯里蘭卡歷史上最嚴重的經濟危機。

history and the resignation of the country's president.

歷史和國家總統的辭職。

Ghana and Egypt also faced rising food prices and a flight of foreign investment out of the country.

加納和埃及也面臨糧食價格上漲和外國投資外逃的問題。

And Pakistan was struggling to pay back its loans when

而巴基斯坦正在為償還貸款而努力，當

the rupee hit a record low against the dollar.

盧比對美元匯率創下歷史新低。

In other parts of Asia, the strength of the dollar

在亞洲其他地區，美元的力量

also brought back painful memories of the financial crisis in 1997

也讓人想起1997年金融危機的痛苦記憶

when Thailand's central bank ran out of U.S. dollars, which spooked investors.

當泰國中央銀行耗盡美元時，這讓投資者感到震驚。

The chaos quickly spread to South Korea, Indonesia and other countries in the region.

混亂迅速蔓延到韓國、印度尼西亞和該地區的其他國家。

Many countries outside the U.S. borrow in dollars because foreign

美國以外的許多國家用美元借款，因為外國

investors don't have confidence in their currency.

投資者對其貨幣沒有信心。

This means that when the value of the dollar strengthens,

這意味著，當美元的價值增強時。

it becomes more expensive to pay back debts out of local currency revenues.

用當地貨幣收入來償還債務的成本變得更高。

While a strong dollar does mean that European and Asian exporters have an edge over domestic

雖然強勢美元確實意味著歐洲和亞洲的出口商比國內的出口商更有優勢。

producers in America, it doesn't cover the higher cost of borrowing the dollar.

美國的生產者，它不包括借入美元的更高成本。

On the other side, you may think a strong dollar is benefiting the U.S.,

在另一邊，你可能認為強勢美元對美國有利。

especially in terms of imported goods being cheaper.

特別是在進口商品更便宜的情況下。

But it turns out that the U.S. does not import that much.

但事實證明，美國並沒有進口那麼多。

So much of the world suffers from a very strong dollar.

世界上很多地方都受到了非常強勢的美元的影響。

While on the flip side, the benefits of a U.S. dollar are small and transient.

雖然從另一個角度來看，美元的好處是小而短暫的。

There's this sort of vicious cycle for these emerging markets whereby they,

對這些新興市場來說，有這樣一種惡性循環，它們。

they need the dollars.

他們需要美元。

But at the same time, it's just exacerbating

但與此同時，這只是加劇了

the problem by depreciating all these emerging markets currencies?

通過讓所有這些新興市場的貨幣貶值來解決這個問題？

Yeah, so there's a vicious cycle.

是的，所以有一個惡性循環。

Johanna Chua is the chief Asia economist for American investment bank Citigroup.

Johanna Chua是美國投資銀行花旗集團的首席亞洲經濟學家。

A lot of solvency risks is triggered by a liquidity risk.

很多償付能力風險是由流動性風險引發的。

So when you strengthen the dollar, you actually erode the purchasing power,

是以，當你加強美元時，你實際上侵蝕了購買力。

the buying buyers purchasing power of a lot of the other countries whose currencies are depreciating.

很多貨幣貶值的其他國家的購買者購買力也在下降。

It's also the dominan currency for global funding.

它也是全球融資的主要貨幣。

And to the extent that a lot of countries, particularly emerging market countries,

而且，在很多國家，特別是新興市場國家。

they finance themselves in dollar, you essentially make the cost of dollar borrowing more expensive.

他們以美元融資，你基本上使美元借貸的成本更加昂貴。

Some economists also believe that a stronger dollar has allowed America's global GDP and

一些經濟學家還認為，美元走強使美國的全球GDP和

trading power to go above and beyond the levels it would otherwise have reached.

交易能力超過了它本來會達到的水準。

This has led to a growing resentment over the

這導致了人們對 "中國 "的不滿情緒不斷增加。

dollar's dominance and led to many countries looking for alternatives.

美元的主導地位，並導致許多國家尋找替代品。

We are beginning to see countries trying to break free from the grip of the dollar.

我們開始看到各國試圖掙脫美元的控制。

So China has set up CIPS, the Cross Border Interbank Payment System, which could in

是以，中國已經建立了CIPS，即跨境銀行間支付系統，它可以在

principle, allow China to start conducting payment transactions with other countries,

原則上，允許中國開始與其他國家進行支付交易。

including rivals of the U.S., such as Russia, but also potentially allies

包括美國的對手，如俄羅斯，但也有可能是盟友。

of the U.S. such as the European countries, were also frustrated about dollar dominance.

美國的歐洲國家等，也對美元的主導地位感到沮喪。

Quite remarkably, in China, if you look at the amount of goods trade,

相當引人注目的是，在中國，如果你看一下貨物貿易的數量。

denominated in renminbi, it actually went up quite a bit.

以人民幣計價，它實際上上升了不少。

And this is in a backdrop where the dollar was strengthening and you know,

而這是在美元走強的背景下，你知道。

renminbi for the most part actually depreciated.

人民幣在大多數情況下實際上是貶值的。

And yet, there's a greater share of trade settlement.

然而，貿易結算的份額更大。

There's still some institutional deficiencies in terms of trust, in terms of investor protections

在信任方面，在投資者保護方面，仍有一些體制上的缺陷

in China, given what we've seen with what happened with tech and property sector.

在中國，鑑於我們所看到的科技和房地產行業所發生的事情。

But I think that's the direction,

但我認為這就是方向。

China will want to go to put the renminbi forward as an alternative.

中國將希望去把人民幣作為一個替代方案。

There are clear signs, however, that the U.S.'s economic dominance has shrunk,

然而，有明顯的跡象表明，美國的經濟主導地位已經萎縮。

especially in the last twenty years.

特別是在過去的二十年裡。

The share of global output and trade has

在全球產出和貿易中的份額已經

shifted towards emerging market economies, particularly China.

轉移到新興市場經濟體，特別是中國。

The U.S. economy now accounts for about a quarter of global GDP, down from 30% in 2000.

美國經濟現在佔全球GDP的約四分之一，低於2000年的30%。

The emergence of digital currencies could play a

數字貨幣的出現可能會起到一個作用。

significant role in reducing the reliance on the dollar.

在減少對美元的依賴方面發揮了重要作用。

These new technologies have made international payments, which were often slow and expensive,

這些新技術使過去往往緩慢而昂貴的國際支付變得簡單。

much easier and alleviates frictions that came with trading in multiple currencies.

更加容易，並減輕了以多種貨幣進行交易的摩擦。

We've seen digital payments proliferate in developing countries, but also,

我們已經看到數字支付在開發中國家激增，但也。

FinTech provides a way of providing very basic banking products and services,

金融科技提供了一種提供非常基本的銀行產品和服務的方式。

for managing credit risk savings, even to low-income households at broad scale.

用於管理信貸風險儲蓄，甚至廣泛地用於低收入家庭。

We can also think about FinTech reducing the constraints on international payments.

我們還可以考慮金融科技減少對國際支付的限制。

But the reality right now is that it's going to require fundamental reforms at the country level,

但現在的現實是，這將需要在國家層面進行根本性的改革。

but also at the international level to break free of the grip of the dollar.

但在國際層面上，也要擺脫美元的控制。

But does the U.S. want to weaken its dollar? After all, the currency's might

但美國想削弱其美元嗎？畢竟，該貨幣的威力

plays a key role in the country's soft power.

在國家的軟實力方面發揮著關鍵作用。

What we're seeing in the recent geopolitical conflict, there's also the risk

我們在最近的地緣政治衝突中所看到的，也存在著風險

that a very dominant dollar means that national

美元占主導地位意味著國家

government might use its currency, policy, for geopolitical objectives.

政府可能利用其貨幣、政策來實現地緣政治目標。

So, whether it's imposing sanctions, or controls directly or indirectly,

是以，無論是實施制裁，還是直接或間接的控制。

or influencing public institutions like SWIFT that does create also a geopolitical

或影響像SWIFT這樣的公共機構，確實也創造了一個地緣政治的機會。

risk premium for other economies that may not be aligned with the West.

其他可能與西方不一致的經濟體的風險溢價。

And it appears that policymakers in Washington are adamant that a

而且，華盛頓的決策者們似乎堅持認為，一個

stronger dollar is in the best interest of the United States.

更強的美元符合美國的最佳利益。

So we have seen these incipient movements to break away from the dollar,

是以，我們已經看到這些脫離美元的苗頭。

but none of them has gained any serious traction yet.

但它們都還沒有獲得任何嚴重的牽引力。

And given the geopolitical fractures we are seeing within each region and across the world, I don't

鑑於我們在每個地區和整個世界看到的地緣政治裂痕，我不

see much likelihood that that will happen in any way seriously threaten the dollar's dominance.

我認為這種情況發生的可能性不大，會以任何方式嚴重威脅到美元的主導地位。