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  • Just a little over a year ago, people would  laugh at you for saying that home prices are  

    就在一年多以前,人們會嘲笑你說,房價是

  • going to collapse. Zero rates kept mortgage  rates so affordable that it didn't matter  

    將要崩潰了。零利率使抵押貸款利率如此實惠,以至於無所謂

  • how high were the home prices. It made sense  since the mortgage was split between 30 years,  

    房價有多高。這是有道理的,因為抵押貸款是分30年進行的。

  • which would reduce your monthly payments to just  a few thousand dollars. But the post covid boom  

    這將使你的月付款減少到只有幾千美元。但是,ovid繁榮之後

  • is now over. Interest rates are at over 4 percentand mortgage rates have risen to over 7 percent.  

    現在已經結束。利率在4%以上,抵押貸款利率已經上升到7%以上。

  • Now buying a house seems less attractive than  it was when rates were around at 3 to 4 percent.  

    現在買房子似乎沒有以前利率在3%到4%左右時那麼有吸引力。

  • a single percentage does play an important  role. It could make a difference of a hundred,  

    一個單一的百分比確實起著重要的作用。它可能會造成一百的差異。

  • if not a few hundred thousand dollars over the  course of the mortgage. And now imagine how much  

    如果不是在抵押貸款過程中的幾十萬美元。而現在想象一下,有多少

  • of a difference a few percentage points make! At the beginning of the year, the Fed was  

    幾個百分點所帶來的差異!在今年年初,美聯儲在

  • convinced that if it is going to raise the ratesit was definitely going to stop inflation. That  

    確信如果它要提高利率,它肯定要阻止通貨膨脹。這

  • seemed convincing because that's how it worksWhen inflation is rising too fast, you raise the  

    似乎很有說服力,因為這就是它的運作方式。 當通脹率上升過快時,你會提高

  • rates, but as we are seeing that even though the  rates are at over 4%, inflation is still there

    但正如我們所看到的,即使利率超過4%,通貨膨脹仍在那裡!"。

  • Yeah, it has declined a little bitbut it's still pretty much there

    是的,它已經下降了一點,但它仍然是相當的。

  • So the question is, why is  inflation not decreasing  

    是以,問題是,為什麼通貨膨脹沒有減少

  • even though the Fed has raised the rates? Here is what raising rates are going to do!  

    即使美聯儲已經提高了利率?以下是加息的後果!

  • It's going to crash the demand, and let me tell  you this, crashing the demand doesn't necessarily  

    這將使需求崩潰,讓我告訴你,崩潰的需求不一定是

  • fix the problem. Crashing the demand means making  people poorer so they won't be able to afford what  

    解決這個問題。粉碎需求意味著讓人們更窮,所以他們將無法負擔得起什麼

  • they could afford so because people are now  poorer, companies have to decrease prices to  

    因為人們現在更窮了,所以公司不得不降低價格以滿足他們的需要。

  • be able to sell their products and servicesBut prices don't always rise because there  

    能夠銷售他們的產品和服務。 但價格並不總是上漲,因為有

  • is too much demand. There are other factors  that influence the price, such as the cost of  

    是需求太多。還有其他影響價格的因素,如成本

  • producing the product or the shipping cost. Definitely, zero rates did play the biggest  

    生產產品或運輸成本。肯定的是,零利率確實發揮了最大的作用

  • role in creating this inflation in the first  place, but you have to consider the fact that,  

    首先在製造這種通貨膨脹中發揮了作用,但你必須考慮到這樣一個事實。

  • During the Covid era, we also had people  unemployed and sitting at their homes  

    在科維德時代,我們也有失業的人,坐在家裡。

  • with very little savings to survive. The covid era had the biggest impact  

    只有很少的儲蓄才能生存。科維德時代的影響最大

  • on the housing market. Prices rose faster than  they had risen prior to the last housing crash  

    在住房市場上。價格上漲的速度比上一次房市崩盤前的上漲速度還要快

  • that devastated the entire economy. There was  an almost 38 percent increase in just 2 years,  

    這對整個經濟造成了破壞。在短短2年內有近38%的增長。

  • and now it seems like the pyramid is about  to collapse. Home prices across the country  

    而現在看來,這個金字塔即將坍塌。全國的房屋價格

  • are falling down. In San Jose, prices are  down 9.4%, Seattle 8.2, and Oakland 7.6. 

    正在下降。在聖何塞,價格下降了9.4%,西雅圖8.2,奧克蘭7.6。

  • The question is, are we about to witness another  housing crash? Will the next housing crash be as  

    問題是,我們是否將見證另一次住房崩潰?下一次住房崩潰會不會像

  • disastrous as the 2008 crash? And how can  you prepare yourself not only to protect  

    災難性的2008年的崩潰?以及你如何能夠為自己做好準備,不僅是為了保護

  • yourself but take advantage of this crisis? We will answer all of these questions and  

    你自己卻利用了這場危機?我們將回答所有這些問題,並

  • many more, but before we do that, give  this video a thumbs up and let's dive in.

    還有很多,但在這之前,請為這段視頻豎起大拇指,讓我們深入瞭解一下。

  • If a year ago, most people still expected home  prices to keep rising, the situation is much  

    如果說一年前,大多數人還預計房價會持續上漲,那麼現在的情況就大不相同了。

  • different now. Morgan STANLEY expects home prices  to finish this year with 4 percent. That might  

    現在不同了。摩根斯坦利預計今年的房價將以4%的速度完成。這可能

  • seem still optimistic, but given the fact that  they have been growing by over 20 percent over  

    似乎仍然很樂觀,但考慮到他們一直在以超過20%的速度增長的事實。

  • the last few years, that's scary! Home prices  are still rising in some places like New York  

    在過去的幾年裡,這是可怕的!紐約等一些地方的房價仍在上漲

  • or California, in places where your average folk  wont be able to afford a house, But overall they  

    或加州,在那些你的普通人無法買得起房子的地方,但總體而言,他們

  • are failing in many other places. House prices  are already stratospherically high that only the  

    在其他許多地方都失敗了。房價已經高到了平流層的程度,只有

  • top 1 percent can afford them! And it still makes  sense to buy them since people are willing to pay  

    最高的1%的人可以買得起!既然人們願意支付,購買它們仍然是有意義的。

  • fortunes just to rent a room in New York City. But there is always a ceiling. Doesn't matter  

    僅僅為了在紐約市租一個房間而發財。但總是有一個上限。這並不重要

  • how great life is in New York, if home prices  decline enough across the country, that will  

    紐約的生活有多好,如果全國的房價下降得足夠多,那就會

  • drag down the rest of the market, including  big cities such as New York or Los Angeles

    拖累了市場的其他部分,包括紐約或洛杉磯等大城市。

  • Some expect prices to fall by 4 percent, others by  over 10 percent. But in order for it to match the  

    一些人預計價格將下降4%,另一些人預計將超過10%。但為了使其與

  • 2008 crash, then prices have to decline by over 27  percent. The 27 percent decline wasn't over just  

    2008年的崩潰,那麼價格必須下降超過27%。27%的跌幅並沒有結束,只是

  • over the course of a year but rather 4 yearsIf we assume that home prices will lose as much  

    在一年的時間裡,而是4年。 如果我們假設房屋價格將損失多達

  • value as they have gained over the covid era, then  that's a possibility. And let me remind you that  

    價值,因為它們在科維德時代已經獲得,那麼這就是一種可能性。而且讓我提醒你

  • prices since march 2020 are up by 38 percent. If they just decline by half of that over the  

    自2020年3月以來,價格上漲了38%。如果他們只是下降了一半,超過了

  • course of the next 12 months for unknown  reasons, like people no longer taking  

    在未來12個月內,由於未知的原因,如人們不再服用

  • mortgages because they are simply too expensive. A  half-million-dollar house at a 3 percent mortgage  

    抵押貸款,因為它們實在是太貴了。一個50萬美元的房子,3%的抵押貸款

  • rate equals around 2K dollars monthly paymentwhile at 7 percent means a 3K dollar payment. An  

    匯率相當於每月支付2千美元左右,而7%意味著支付3千美元。一個

  • extra thousand dollars is a huge difference in  a country where over 60 percent of people can't  

    在一個60%以上的人無法使用的國家裡,額外的一千美元是一個巨大的差異。

  • even pull out a thousand-dollar emergency. Think about it this way, let's say there  

    甚至掏出一千美元的緊急情況。這樣想吧,假設有

  • are 10 chocolate bars in the entire  economy and 10 dollars. That's it,  

    是整個經濟中的10條巧克力和10美元。就這樣了。

  • that's your entire economy. In this hypothetical  example, 1 chocolate bar equals one dollar.  

    這就是你的整個經濟。在這個假設的例子中,1根巧克力棒等於1美元。

  • That's what it means that prices are set by  supply and demand, the essence of capitalism.

    這就是價格由供求關係決定的意思,是資本主義的本質。

  • Let's say now that we have doubled the number  of dollars in this economy now, instead of 10  

    比方說,現在我們在這個經濟體中的美元數量增加了一倍,而不是10倍

  • dollars, we have 20 dollars, but the number of  chocolate bars is still the same, which is 10. 

    美元,我們有20美元,但巧克力棒的數量仍然是相同的,即10塊。

  • In this scenario, one chocolate bar would equaldollars since supply and demand determine prices.  

    在這種情況下,一塊巧克力等於2美元,因為供應和需求決定價格。

  • Now replace chocolate bars with houses, and you  understand what's has been happening the last  

    現在把巧克力棒換成房子,你就會明白過去發生了什麼。

  • 2 years. More money that has been thrown out  of nowhere was the primary reason that caused  

    2年了。更多的錢不知道從哪裡扔出來的,是造成的主要原因

  • the price hikes, now the fed has been trying  to do the absolute opposite since February,  

    漲價,現在美聯儲自2月以來一直試圖做絕對相反的事情。

  • taking that money out of the economy which is  why prices have been falling but it seems like  

    把這些錢從經濟中拿出來,這就是為什麼價格一直在下降,但似乎是

  • not everything is going according to the plan. But do you realize what it means for home prices

    並非一切都在按計劃進行。但你是否意識到這對房價意味著什麼?

  • Exactly! Going back to the pre covid period. Of course, they will not go back as much  

    正是如此!回到科維德之前的時期。當然,他們不會回到那麼多。

  • as they were before, but even a 20  percent decrease would be disastrous

    但即使是20%的下降也是災難性的。

  • The fed knows that, and they have a strategyThey don't really care if prices decrease by  

    美聯儲知道這一點,而且他們有一個策略。 他們並不真正關心價格是否下降了

  • 20 percent or 40 percent. People won't  panic and will gradually adapt to the  

    20%或40%。人們不會驚慌失措,會逐漸適應

  • new reality as long as it happens smoothly  and gradually. So the crisis wouldn't be  

    新的現實,只要它順利地和逐步地發生。是以,危機就不會是

  • as bad as it might be if prices fell by  20 percent in a matter of a few months.

    如果價格在幾個月內下降20%,可能會很糟糕。

  • After successfully crashing the entire stock  market, sending crypto to the absolute bottom,  

    在成功地使整個股票市場崩潰之後,將加密貨幣送到了絕對的底部。

  • and crashing home prices in many cities across  the country, inflation for October has been 7.7  

    和全國許多城市的房價崩潰,10月份的通貨膨脹率為7.7

  • percent. Honesty, I don't know what's the peak  of hiking the rates, I would love to know that,  

    百分比。誠實地說,我不知道加息的高峰是什麼,我很想知道。

  • but let's just hope it ain't going to continue  because the consequences seem very terrifying.

    但我們只希望它不會繼續下去,因為其後果似乎非常可怕。

  • Here is what I think would be the right thing to  do. By the way, this is not financial advice. If  

    以下是我認為應該做的事情。順便說一下,這不是財務建議。如果

  • you have been holding stocks, then everything has  fallen to rock bottom. Asset prices, like stocks  

    你一直持有股票,那麼一切都已跌至谷底。資產價格,如股票

  • and house prices, will most likely further decline  over the course of the next 6 months until we know  

    和房價,很可能會在未來6個月內進一步下降,直到我們知道

  • for sure how high the fed is willing to raise the  rates. Around mid-December, the fed is going to  

    可以肯定的是,美聯儲願意將利率提高到多高。12月中旬左右,美聯儲將

  • announce how much more it will raise the rates. If the rate hike would be by more than 50 basis  

    宣佈它將再提高多少利率。如果加息將超過50個基點

  • points, then it seems like the fed is seriously  willing to collapse everything just to bring  

    點,那麼看來美聯儲是真的願意崩潰一切,只是為了把

  • inflation down, but I guess it wanted to  send a message over the course of this year  

    通貨膨脹下降,但我想它想在今年的過程中發出一個資訊

  • that if the fed is saying it will raise the  rates, it will ! and will crash the market

    如果美聯儲說它將提高利率,它將!並將使市場崩潰!"。

  • No one should think that he is  above the fed because prior to 2022,  

    沒有人應該認為他是凌駕於美聯儲之上的,因為在2022年之前。

  • no one took the fed seriously when it  kept saying that it might raise the rates

    當美聯儲不斷說它可能提高利率時,沒有人認真對待。

  • So, we might not have reached the bottom yetEven if we have reached it, the fed won't bring  

    是以,我們可能還沒有到達底部。 即使我們已經達到了,美聯儲也不會把

  • down the rates overnight. It will gradually  bring them down unless the fed decides to  

    徹夜降低利率。它將逐漸使它們下降,除非美聯儲決定

  • hike the rates to 20 percent, as did in the  1980s. But I don't think that's happening

    將利率提高到20%,就像1980年代那樣。但我不認為這正在發生。

  • It won't make sense to take a mortgage  within the next 24 months since rates  

    在未來24個月內進行抵押貸款是沒有意義的,因為利率

  • aren't coming down most likely so those  who hold cash will rip off the market

    很可能不會下降,所以那些持有現金的人將從市場上撕掉。

  • That's it for today, thanks for  watching, and see you in the next one.

    今天的節目就到這裡,感謝大家的觀看,下期節目再見。

Just a little over a year ago, people would  laugh at you for saying that home prices are  

就在一年多以前,人們會嘲笑你說,房價是

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下一次住房崩盤--銀行不想讓你知道的5件事 (The Next Housing Crash - 5 Things Banks Don’t Want You To Know)

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    Summer 發佈於 2022 年 12 月 26 日
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