No one expected that by summer, the fed wouldn't just raise rates but would start to shrink

沒有人想到，到了夏天，美聯儲不僅會加息，而且會開始縮水

its balance sheet.

其資產負債表。

If you remember, J Powell, for almost 2 years, kept saying that we are not seeing any signs

如果你還記得，J-鮑威爾在將近兩年的時間裡一直在說，我們沒有看到任何跡象。

of inflation getting out of hand even though the rates were at their minimum, but in the

通貨膨脹失控，即使利率處於最低水平，但在

last 6 months, the fed raised the rates 3 times.

過去6個月，美聯儲提高了3次利率。

First, back in February, by 0.25 percent, which, to be honest, didn't really do much

首先，早在2月，0.25%，說實話，這並沒有真正起到什麼作用。

but sent a clear message to the market that the age of cheap money is over.

但向市場發出了一個明確的資訊，即廉價資金的時代已經過去。

However, the market didn't really understand that, so in March, it raised the rates by

然而，市場並沒有真正理解這一點，所以在3月份，它將利率提高了

a higher percent, 50 basis points.

一個更高的百分比，50個基點。

The market crashed, tech stocks plummeted, and crypto went to zero.

市場崩潰了，科技股暴跌，加密貨幣歸零。

Some crypto-coins literally went bankrupt such as Luna, which seemed like a promising

一些加密貨幣實際上已經破產，如Luna，它似乎是一個有前途的加密貨幣。

project that is now worth nothing.

現在一文不值的項目。

Even stable coins that are connected to the us dollar lost over half of their value.

即使是與美元有關的穩定的硬幣也失去了一半以上的價值。

How would a coin that's pegged to hard cash dollars plummet so much?

一個與硬通貨美元掛鉤的硬幣怎麼會暴跌這麼多？

The answer is simple.

答案很簡單。

Investors are so doubtful of this technology that they are thinking of selling off and

投資者對這一技術如此懷疑，以至於他們考慮拋售和

getting out before everything collapses.

在一切都崩潰之前離開。

Little did everyone know that the worst was yet to come.

大家都不知道，最糟糕的事情還在後面。

In June, J Powell, the chairman of the federal reserve, announced that the Fed is raising

6月，美聯儲主席鮑威爾(J Powell)宣佈，美聯儲正在提高

the rates by another 75 points, which sent shock waves across the markets.

匯率又下降了75點，這給整個市場帶來了衝擊波。

Not only it destroyed the entire stock market, but it also puts a huge question mark on the

它不僅摧毀了整個股票市場，而且也給我們帶來了一個巨大的問號。

future of the housing market since interest rates at 1.75 percent bring mortgage rates

由於1.75%的利率給抵押貸款利率帶來的影響，住房市場的未來。

to the point where the vast majority would not be able to afford, and those who will

以至於絕大多數人將無法承擔，而那些將承擔的人

be able to afford a home will see a significant reduction in their budget which will bring

能夠買得起房子的人將看到他們的預算大幅減少，這將帶來

down the demand which eventually brings down prices.

導致需求下降，最終使價格下降。

If you are wondering why I haven't mentioned crypto yet, that's because if a 0.5 percent

如果你想知道為什麼我還沒有提到加密貨幣，那是因為如果一個0.5%的

increase caused such a crash, what do you think a 0.75 percent increase would do to

你認為0.75%的增長會導致這樣的崩潰嗎？

crypt?

墓室？

Since the 6th of June, when the market expects the fed to raise rates, bitcoin has already

自6月6日市場預期美聯儲加息以來，比特幣已經

dropped by 33 percent.

下降了33%。

Coins such as Solana now cost a fraction of what they used to cost at their peak.

像索拉納這樣的硬幣現在的價格只是它們在高峰時期的一小部分。

I wouldn't be surprised if Ethereum will cost less than a thousand dollars by the time this

如果到時候以太坊的價格低於1000美元，我也不會感到驚訝。

video is out.

視頻已經出來了。

The problem is that this is not the end.

問題是，這並不是終點。

Because as I was writing the script for this video, J Powell said that next month, the

因為在我為這個視頻寫劇本的時候，J-鮑威爾說，下個月的

fed might be raising the rates by another 0.75 percent.

美聯儲可能會將利率再提高0.75%。

That will raise interest rates to 2.5 to 2.75 percent.

這將使利率提高到2.5%至2.75%。

That would make them as high as they had been in march 2008 when the Fed tried to control

這將使它們與2008年3月美聯儲試圖控制時的水準一樣高。

the housing market by raising interest rates.

通過提高利率來推動住房市場的發展。

But that raises a few questions?

但這提出了幾個問題？

Will that cause another recession?

這是否會導致另一次經濟衰退？

How bad will the coming recession be?

即將到來的經濟衰退會有多嚴重？

and how will that impact the stock market?

以及這將如何影響股票市場？

We will answer all of these questions and many more, but before we do that, give this

我們將回答所有這些問題以及更多的問題，但在這之前，請看這個

video a thumbs up and let's get started.

視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

Janet Yellen, the former chairman of the federal reserve and the current secretary of the treasury,

珍妮特-耶倫，前美聯儲主席和現任財政部長。

said in front of the congrees that Bringing Inflation Down Should Be a Top Priority.

他在眾人面前說，降低通貨膨脹應該是一個首要任務。

Her testimony is a clear indicator that inflation is actually getting out of hand.

她的證詞清楚地表明，通貨膨脹實際上正在失去控制。

Inflation was so high that just a year ago, we had news such as this!

通貨膨脹如此之高，以至於就在一年前，我們還有這樣的新聞！"。

Where Raising wages isn't enough to attract and keep workers.

提高工資不足以吸引和留住工人的地方。

Higher wages lead to higher costs and will reflect in prices.

更高的工資導致更高的成本，並將反映在價格上。

The Fed has been so reluctant to raise the rates because it knew that it wouldn't just

美聯儲一直如此不願意加息，因為它知道它不會只

crash the markets but also raise unemployment.

市場崩潰，但也提高了失業率。

We have already seen the news from giant companies that they would slash their workforce.

我們已經看到了來自巨頭公司的消息，他們將削減他們的員工隊伍。

Coinbase will lay off 18 percent of its employees.

Coinbase將裁減18%的員工。

Tesla already began laying off 10 percent of its workforce, with ex-employees confirming

特斯拉已經開始裁減10%的員工，前僱員確認

on LinkedIn that they've been laid off.

在LinkedIn上說他們已經被解僱了。

Elon Musk even suggested possible layoffs at Twitter, even though the deal is not over

埃隆-馬斯克甚至建議推特可能進行裁員，儘管交易還沒有結束

yet.

然而。

Paypal began firing employees since May.

支付寶自5月起開始解僱員工。

Tech companies have already realized that the age of cheap money is over, and it's time

科技公司已經意識到，廉價資金的時代已經過去，現在是時候了

to cut the cost and prepare for the storm, a storm that's going to swipe the markets.

以削減成本，為風暴做準備，一場將席捲市場的風暴。

High unemployment is a dangerous sign since it leads to lower aggregate demand.

高失業率是一個危險的信號，因為它導致了總需求的降低。

A recession often occurs when there is a widespread drop in spending and a general decline in

衰退通常發生在支出普遍下降，以及總體下降的情況下。

economic activity.

經濟活動。

When it lasts longer than a few months or two consecutive quarters and is visible in

當它持續的時間超過幾個月或連續兩個季度，並且在

real GDP, real income, and employment, it turns into a recession.

實際GDP、實際收入和就業，就變成了衰退。

Soon we will find out how much unemployment has risen as a result of the Fed's actions.

很快我們就會發現，由於美聯儲的行動，失業率上升了多少。

If a recession lasts for at least 2 years or the GDP shrinks by 10 percent, then it

如果經濟衰退至少持續2年，或國內生產總值縮水10%，則

becomes a depression.

成為抑鬱症。

If it wasn't for Fed's loosening monetary policy, 2020 would have easily turned into

如果不是美聯儲的寬鬆貨幣政策，2020年將很容易變成

a depression.

抑鬱症。

The problem with easy monetary policy is that it solves the problem now at the expense of

寬鬆貨幣政策的問題是，它解決了現在的問題，卻犧牲了

the future, which means sooner or later, the taxpayers have to pay the price for avoiding

未來，這意味著納稅人遲早要為迴避而付出代價。

depression.

抑鬱症。

That was Fed's plan from the beginning.

這從一開始就是美聯儲的計劃。

But geopolitical challenges that the US is facing in 2022 are pushing the US to take

但美國在2022年面臨的地緣政治挑戰正推動著美國採取

drastic actions now before everything collapses.

在一切崩潰之前，現在就要採取激烈的行動。

The consequences could be devastating if the US tries to solve the current problem by easing

如果美國試圖通過放鬆來解決目前的問題，後果可能是毀滅性的。

monetary policy.

貨幣政策。

The world bank even warned that we might face a 1970 stagflation crisis.

世界銀行甚至警告說，我們可能面臨1970年的滯脹危機。

Up until the 1970s, traditional economics suggested that inflation falls when unemployment

直到20世紀70年代，傳統經濟學認為，當失業率下降時，通貨膨脹就會下降。

rises since people have less to spend, which drives prices down.

由於人們的支出減少，導致價格下降，是以價格上漲。

However, During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Arab countries imposed an oil embargo against

然而，在1973年的阿以戰爭期間，阿拉伯國家對中國實施了石油禁運。

the United States in retaliation for the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military.

美國為報復美國決定重新向以色列軍隊提供補給而採取的措施。

The shortage of oil in the market pushed oil prices to cross 100 dollars per barrel, which

市場上的石油短缺將油價推高到每桶100美元以上，這

caused widespread inflation since that increased the cost of transportation.

造成廣泛的通貨膨脹，因為這增加了運輸成本。

The economy slowed and fell into a recession, but inflation kept rising.

經濟放緩並陷入衰退，但通貨膨脹不斷上升。

The Fed's credibility as an inflation fighter was lost.

美聯儲作為通脹鬥士的公信力已經喪失。

The end result was inflation so high it required two painful recessions to bring it down as

最終的結果是通貨膨脹如此之高，需要兩次痛苦的經濟衰退才能將其降下來。

the Fed under Paul Volcker raised the federal funds rate to as much as 19%.

保羅-沃爾克上司的美聯儲將聯邦基金利率提高到19%之多。

And that's a scenario that could be at the end of the tunnel that's waiting for us since

而這是一個可能是在隧道盡頭等待我們的情景，因為

inflation isn't just driven by cheap money but also by high oil prices and shortages

通貨膨脹不僅僅是由廉價貨幣推動的，也是由高油價和短缺推動的

in the market.

在市場上。

And that raises the question - how far should the Fed go to control inflation?

這就提出了一個問題--美聯儲應該在多大程度上控制通貨膨脹？

5%? 10%? Or how about 19%, as was the case in the 1970s.

5%?10%?或者19%如何，就像1970年代的情況一樣。

If the fed even raises the rates t0 5 percent, that would already be a catastrophe.

如果美聯儲甚至將利率提高到5%，那就已經是一場災難了。

The second question is - how long will the fed keep the rates high?

第二個問題是--美聯儲會將利率保持在高位多久？

6 month?

6個月？

12 months?

12個月？

2 years?

2年？

Remember that an increase in interest rate will lead to high unemployment, which will

請記住，利率的提高將導致高失業率，這將

lead to a reduction in economic activity which means a recession and, if it's long enough,

導致經濟活動的減少，這意味著經濟衰退，如果時間足夠長。

then a depression.

然後是大蕭條。

That's why experts are worried that a recession isn't really the worst-case scenario, but

這就是為什麼專家們擔心，經濟衰退並不是真正的最壞情況，而是

stagflation is.

滯脹是。

And now, imagine for a moment, how will that impact the housing market?

而現在，想象一下，這將如何影響住房市場？

How strongly will high unemployment and high mortgage rates hit the demand, and how much

高失業率和高抵押貸款利率對需求的衝擊有多大？

will the prices fall?

價格會下降嗎？

Will they even fall when there is overall inflation in the first place?

首先在有整體通貨膨脹的情況下，他們甚至會下降嗎？

Predicting the future isn't just difficult, but as they say, there are as many predictions

預測未來不僅困難，而且正如他們所說，有多少預測就有多少預測

as the number of economists in the world.

作為世界上的經濟學家的數量。

But what they all agree on is the fact that it will be painful.

但他們都同意的是，這將是一個痛苦的事實。

Any hike in interest rates will negatively impact the stock market because a dollar tomorrow

任何加息都會對股票市場產生負面影響，因為明天的美元

is worth less than a dollar today.

今天的價值還不到一美元。

At the end of the day, any company is valued based on how much money it earns, but a rise

歸根結底，任何公司的價值都是基於它賺了多少錢，但是上升

in interest rates lowers the value of future cash flow, which lowers the firm's value overall.

利率的上升降低了未來現金流的價值，從而降低了公司的整體價值。

Investors often use a method called discounted cash flow to find out the real value of a

投資者經常使用一種叫做現金流折現的方法來找出一個項目的真正價值。

firm's future cash flow.

公司的未來現金流。

If you want us to make a video about that in the future, let me know in the comments

如果你希望我們將來做一個關於這個的視頻，請在評論中告訴我。

below.

下面。