trade and people to pass through. From humble  brick arches to mega concrete structures – they've  

貿易和人員通過。從簡陋的磚拱門到巨大的混凝土結構--他們已經

all played a role in globalization.

都在全球化中發揮了作用。

Supporters of globalization argue  that improvements in communication  

支持全球化的人認為，通信的改善

and transportation have created a more  open, tolerant and peaceful world.

和交通創造了一個更加開放、寬容和和平的世界。

In the last 100 years, it has resulted in  huge growth for global trade as economies,  

在過去的100年裡，它為全球貿易和經濟帶來了巨大的增長。

people and cultures gradually integrated.

人民和文化逐漸融合。

But globalization hasn't been without its  drawbacks. And Russia's invasion of Ukraine  

但全球化並不是沒有缺點的。而俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵

has helped to push international  relations to a breaking point. So,  

已經幫助將國際關係推到了一個突破點。所以。

can globalization still bridge  the world's economies together?

全球化還能把世界經濟聯繫起來嗎？

I'm here at the International Monetary  Fund's headquarters in Washington,  

我現在在華盛頓的國際貨幣基金組織總部。

D.C. to speak to the institution's  chief economist on the topic.

華盛頓特區，與該機構的首席經濟學家就這一主題進行了交談。

The worst is yet to come, and for many people,  2023 will feel like a recession. Pierre Olivier  

最糟糕的情況還沒有到來，對許多人來說，2023年將感覺到經濟衰退。皮埃爾-奧利維爾

Gourinchas' warning from the IMF's World Economic  Outlook in October 2022 underlined the significant  

Gourinchas在2022年10月的國際貨幣基金組織《世界經濟展望》中的警告強調了重大的

slowdown in the global economy – and the reliance  on global trade to function. It's raised questions  

全球經濟的放緩--以及對全球貿易運作的依賴。這提出了一些問題

as to whether the many benefits of globalization  outweigh the geopolitical problems it's helped  create.

至於全球化的許多好處是否超過了它所幫助製造的地緣政治問題。

Globalization has delivered, that's  the first thing we should realize.

全球化已經交付，這是我們應該認識到的第一件事。

It's lifted hundreds of millions of people out  of poverty. It's allowed the rise of emerging  

它使數以億計的人擺脫了貧困。它使新興國家的崛起成為可能。

markets. It's on the back of a process  of integration into the global economy.  

市場。這是在融入全球經濟進程的背景下進行的。

So, in many ways, it has succeeded.

是以，在許多方面，它已經成功了。

The roots of that success, according  to historians, dates as far back as  

根據歷史學家的說法，這種成功的根源可以追溯到

the 1st century BC to the Old Silk Road.  It transported luxury goods such as gold,  

公元前1世紀的古絲綢之路。 它運輸的是黃金等奢侈品。

silver and of course silk between China and Rome,  the two great civilizations at the time.
Then came  

在中國和羅馬這兩個偉大的文明國家之間，銀器，當然還有絲綢。然後是

the spice trade as Islamic merchants dominated  the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea routes.

由於伊斯蘭商人在印度洋和地中海航線上占主導地位，香料貿易得到了發展。

By the end of the 15th century, the Age of  Discovery had begun and with it the slave  

到15世紀末，發現時代已經開始，隨之而來的是奴隸制的出現。

trade. The appalling exploitation  of African people helped European  

貿易。對非洲人民駭人聽聞的剝削有助於歐洲

explorers conquer and integrate new  territories, such as the Americas,  

探險家們征服和整合新的領土，如美洲。

into their economies. But these new  trade links weren't truly global.

融入他們的經濟。但這些新的貿易聯繫並不是真正的全球性。

The first wave of globalization really began  at the end of the 18th century with the  

第一波全球化浪潮真正開始於18世紀末，當時的情況是

British industrial revolution, which through  improved manufacturing and transportation,  

英國工業革命，通過改進製造和運輸。

saw huge growth in global exports. The two world wars ushered in a new  

全球出口出現了巨大的增長。兩次世界大戰迎來了一個新的

era – dominated by the United States – with the  help of new technologies like the car and the  

在新技術的幫助下，如汽車和電子技術，在美國占主導地位的時代。

plane. Then came the digital revolution which  turbo charged globalization to new frontiers,  

飛機。然後是數字革命，它將全球化推向了新的領域。

as China joined the U.S. as the two global powers.

中國加入了美國，成為兩個全球大國。

But the latest wave of globalization has seen  a lot of pushback. As a result of technological  

但最近的全球化浪潮中，出現了很多反擊。由於技術

advances, whole industries have been wiped out,  causing mass job losses. Worker exploitation  

進展，整個行業被消滅，造成了大規模的工作損失。工人被剝削

and a rise in inequality have also been, at  least partly, attributed to globalization.

和不平等的增加也被至少部分地歸因於全球化。

There are a number of people who have been  suffering as the economy is changing and how  

隨著經濟的變化，有一些人一直在受苦，如何

some local labour markets are facing competition  from overseas and things like that. So,  

一些地方的勞動力市場正面臨著來自海外的競爭，諸如此類的問題。所以。

these kinds of dislocations happened.   Has globalization gone too far? 

這些類型的錯位發生了。 全球化是否走得太遠？

In some ways globalisation has gone too far. 

在某些方面，全球化已經走得太遠了。

Kevin Gallagher is an economist and director of  

凱文-加拉格爾是一名經濟學家，也是《世界日報》的董事。

the Global Development Policy  Center at Boston University.

波士頓大學的全球發展政策中心。

You know, how stock markets have  bubbles? And then there's a correction,  

你知道，股票市場是如何出現保麗龍的嗎？然後有一個修正。

I think there's been a globalization  bubble, and we're trying to correct it.  

我認為已經出現了全球化的保麗龍，我們正在努力糾正它。

 We've spent so much time

我們已經花了這麼多時間

almost thinking about like the globalization  of markets and trade as an end, rather than  

幾乎是把市場和貿易的全球化當作一個目的，而不是把它當作一個目標。

a means to help us live in a more stable, more  equal and, and more environmentally sound way. 

是幫助我們以更穩定、更平等和更環保的方式生活的手段。

  We have to find better ways in which we  

我們必須找到更好的方法，讓我們

can make sure that everyone is going to be benefiting going forward. 

可以確保每個人都將受益於未來的發展。

And that's part of the reason why there is so  much resentment is in a sense, a lot of people  

這就是為什麼有這麼多怨恨的部分原因，在某種意義上，很多人

feel like this is a train that left them behind.  And so why should they vote for a process that has  

感覺這是一列把他們拋在後面的火車。 是以，他們為什麼要投票支持一個有

not benefited them?

沒有讓他們受益？

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has, in Gourinchas'  opinion, revealed underlying 'geo-political  

Gourinchas認為，俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵揭示了潛在的 "地緣政治"。

tectonic plates.' Imagine the two countries are  tectonic plates that rub up against each other  

構造板塊'。想象一下，這兩個國家是相互摩擦的構造板塊

to create an earthquake. That earthquake has  had a ripple effect on other tectonic plates.  

以形成地震。那次地震對其他構造板塊產生了漣漪效應。

 Think rising commodities prices, disrupted trade,  

想想看，商品價格上漲，貿易中斷。

a refugee crisis and weaker economies thanks  to central banks raising interest rates at  

難民危機和中央銀行提高利率導致的經濟疲軟。

a faster-than-expected pace – all rifts that  have helped push the world's economies apart.  

比預期的速度更快--所有的裂痕都有助於推動世界經濟的分離。

 Without intervention, these plates would become

如果沒有干預，這些板塊將成為

'distinct economic blocs' with trade,  currency and political systems that could unravel  

具有貿易、貨幣和政治體系的 "獨特的經濟集團 "可能會解體

our current global economic order.

我們目前的全球經濟秩序。

And while the conflict between Russia and  Ukraine may be the epicenter of the earthquake,  

而俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的衝突可能是地震的震中。

the geopolitical tectonic plates that make up the globalized economy had been drifting apart for years.

構成全球化經濟的地緣政治構造板塊多年來一直在漂移分離。

Major economies began to drop tariff rates  on imports, and many nations entered into  

主要經濟體開始降低進口的關稅率，許多國家加入了

free-trade agreements following a series  of events after the Second World War,  

在第二次世界大戰後發生的一系列事件之後，自由貿易協定。

including a meeting in 1944 between 44  countries and the fall of the Soviet Union. 

包括1944年44個國家之間的會議和蘇聯的垮臺。

 But over the last ten years,

但在過去的十年裡。

the backlash against globalization has fuelled  populist movements all around the world, which  

對全球化的反感助長了世界各地的民粹主義運動。

in many cases led to protectionist policies.  Protectionism is the economic policy of  

在許多情況下導致了保護主義政策。 保護主義是一種經濟政策，即

restricting imports to shield a country's  domestic industries from foreign competition. 

限制進口以保護一個國家的國內產業免受外國競爭。

 Data from Global Trade Alert,  

數據來自全球貿易警報。

show that protectionist trade policy interventions  have been growing faster than liberalizing ones. 

表明保護主義的貿易政策干預一直比自由化的貿易政策干預增長得更快。

The rise of China and other emerging 

中國和其他新興國家的崛起

market economies came about largely thanks to  globalization. But this growing economic power may  

市場經濟的出現主要得益於全球化。但這種不斷增長的經濟力量可能

also be contributing to its fragmentation.   

這也是造成其分裂的原因。

China has been one of the largest beneficiaries of  globalization when it entered the WTO. It really,  

中國加入世貿組織後，一直是全球化的最大受益者之一。它真的。

really grew an incredible amount and it really  allowed the rest of the world to grow because  

真的增長了令人難以置信的數量，它真的允許世界其他地方的增長，因為

we had lower prices. But while China adhered to  the letter, most of the time of our international  

我們有更低的價格。但是，雖然中國堅持信守，但我們國際上的大部分時間都是如此。

trade rules, they played a stronger role with  their state to make sure that they produced  

貿易規則，他們與他們的國家發揮了更大的作用，以確保他們的生產和銷售。

a lot of things at home and moved into the new  sectors of the future in ways that markets won't  

在國內有很多東西，並以市場不會的方式進入未來的新領域。

do on their own.

他們自己做。

Back in 2018, President Donald Trump accused  China of unfair trading practices and intellectual  

早在2018年，美國總統唐納德-特朗普就指責中國的不公平貿易做法和知識產權

property theft and began to slap tariffs on  China to encourage U.S. consumers to buy American

財產盜竊，並開始對中國徵收關稅，以鼓勵美國消費者購買美國產品。

products. China hit back with its own tariffs  and accused the U.S. of trying to prevent it from  

產品。中國以自己的關稅進行反擊，並指責美國試圖阻止它。

becoming the world's dominant economic power.

成為世界上占主導地位的經濟大國。

Being a large economic power comes great  responsibilities and I think by and large,  

作為一個經濟大國，責任重大，我認為大體上是這樣。

the Chinese authorities are very cognizant of  that. Global discussions are taking place. That  

中國當局對這一點非常瞭解。正在進行全球討論。這

needs to continue, that needs to be reinforced  and we need to get past sort of the tensions that  

需要繼續，需要加強，我們需要擺脫那種緊張的局面。

might be arising.

可能出現的問題。

There is a rebalancing of economic power  and governance that is taking place. We've  

經濟權力和治理的重新平衡正在發生。我們已經

had this slow process over the last 40 years the  rise of emerging markets as their economic power

在過去的40年裡，新興市場的崛起是一個緩慢的過程，因為它們的經濟實力很強。

increases, there is a need for an adjustment in  the way we address and deal with global problems.  

越來越多的人認為，我們有必要調整解決和處理全球問題的方式。

And so it was bound to happen that there will be  little rifts and you know, the plates will start  

是以，必然會出現小裂縫，你知道，板塊將開始

moving apart.

漸行漸遠。

According to Gourinchas, the rise in these  countries' economic might was not matched  

根據Gourinchas的說法，這些國家的經濟實力的上升並沒有得到相應的回報

by a similar rise in their financial and global  institutional firepower.' That's in part down to  

由他們的金融和全球機構火力的類似上升。這在一定程度上是由於

the dominance of the U.S. dollar. But the U.S.'s  share of global output is likely to decline,  

美元的主導地位。但美國在全球產出中的份額可能會下降。

due to the growth in emerging markets.' 

由於新興市場的增長，'。

We're coming out from a period where we had very  strong dominance from one country and groups of  

我們正從一個國家和集團非常強大的主導地位的時期走出來。

countries, but we have to plan and organize  the transition to this multipolar world.

國家，但我們必須計劃和組織向這個多極世界的過渡。

 A multipolar world is one where there are more  

一個多極化的世界是一個有更多的

than two centers of power. In theory, it would  allow emerging economies to better retain and  

而不是兩個權力中心。從理論上講，這將使新興經濟體能夠更好地保留和

protect the benefits of globalization. But whether  the U.S. and China, the world's superpowers,  

保護全球化的好處。但美國和中國這兩個世界上的超級大國是否。

would agree to that transition is unclear.

目前還不清楚是否會同意這種過渡。

This is complicated, this is difficult. There's  a new seat at the table. And so how we organize  

這很複雜，這很困難。桌子上有一個新的座位。是以，我們如何組織

this in a way that is beneficial for everyone  is really the challenge that we're facing.  

我們所面臨的挑戰是，如何以一種對每個人都有利的方式實現這一目標。

 And as these hypothetical tectonic  

而當這些假設的構造性

plates move away from each other, Gourinchas  argues we'll need more bridges between them,  

板塊相互遠離，Gourinchas認為，我們將需要更多的橋樑來連接它們。

not less. Bridges like the IMF.

而不是更少。像國際貨幣基金組織那樣的橋樑。

A core mission of the IMF is to guarantee that  we have global financial stability. And so it's  

國際貨幣基金組織的一個核心任務是保證我們有全球金融穩定。是以，它是

really important to keep as many countries around  the table and to find ways to reach agreements,  

讓儘可能多的國家坐在會議桌前，並找到達成協議的方法，這一點非常重要。

and a world that sort of what, you know, we don't  trade, we don't engage, we don't talk. We can't  

和一個什麼樣的世界，你知道，我們不交易，我們不參與，我們不說話。我們不能

do any of this.  

做任何這樣的事。

But Gallagher begs to differ.

但加拉格爾不敢苟同。

The IMF on some levels has really been a big part  of the problem when it comes to globalization.  

當談到全球化時，國際貨幣基金組織在某些層面上確實是問題的一個重要部分。

They say raise taxes, cut spending, raise the  interest rate, put the country into a short-term 

他們說增加稅收，削減開支，提高利率，讓國家進入短期的

recession, and hope that the investment  community will see that you've tighten your  

衰退，並希望投資界會看到你已經收緊了你的

belt and money will start to trickle  in. That doesn't pay off so well.   

帶，錢就會開始流進來。這並不是很好的回報。

 What are the key areas that need to be corrected  

哪些是需要糾正的關鍵領域

for the global economy to move forward?

為全球經濟向前發展？

Number one is financial markets. The financial  system sort of feeds on itself, rather than  

第一是金融市場。金融系統有點自生自滅，而不是

fuels productive, equal and environmentally sound  development, we really need to regulate global  

我們確實需要對全球範圍內的生產性、平等和環境友好型發展進行監管。

finance, to make sure that it's aligned with  our broader societal goals. Number two, make  

金融，以確保它與我們更廣泛的社會目標相一致。第二，使

sure that there are safety nets so that all the  benefits just don't accrue to a small amount of  

確保有安全網，使所有的利益不會累積到一小部分人身上。

folks and the populism that comes with that that  makes folks want to close borders and go to war. 

人們和隨之而來的民粹主義，使人們想要關閉邊界和開戰。