looking to fill up their  gas storage ahead of winter.

希望在冬季到來之前填滿他們的天然氣儲存。

New deals were brokered, old  gas facilities re-opened,  

達成了新的交易，舊的天然氣設施重新開放。

and measures to control consumption imposed,  all in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

和控制消費的措施，都是在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之後。

Their efforts and a mild start  to the winter have paid off.

他們的努力和冬季的溫和開端已經得到了回報。

More than 95% of the EU's gas  storage was filled by mid-November.

到11月中旬，歐盟95%以上的天然氣儲存被填滿。

That's above the 80% target the  European Commission set back in March.

這高於歐盟委員會早在3月設定的80%的目標。

That's easing price pressures on consumers,  but Europe's energy crisis is far from over.

這正在緩解消費者的價格壓力，但歐洲的能源危機遠未結束。

Come March 1st, 2023, the  European utilities will have to

到2023年3月1日，歐洲的公用事業公司將不得不

start refilling their inventories  again, to prepare for next winter.

開始重新填充他們的庫存，為明年冬天做準備。

Henning Gloystein is the Director of Energy, Climate & Resources

Henning Gloystein是能源、氣候和資源部主任。

at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

在政治風險諮詢公司歐亞集團工作。

And they'll have to do that probably without Russian gas.

而且他們將不得不在沒有俄羅斯天然氣的情況下做到這一點。

And that means price pressure will be high.

而這意味著價格壓力會很高。

There has been a lot of  apprehension around this winter,  

這個冬天周圍有很多憂慮。

but leaders and energy experts say it's  next winter they're most worried about.

但領導人和能源專家說，他們最擔心的是明年冬天。

There are a few reasons for this.

這有幾個原因。

For starters, Russian gas will no longer make up the bulk of Europe's energy imports.

首先，俄羅斯天然氣將不再佔歐洲能源進口的大部分。

You only have to go as far back as 2021 to see  how reliant the EU had become on Russian energy.

你只需要追溯到2021年，就可以看到歐盟對俄羅斯能源的依賴程度。

It was the EU's largest provider of  oil, coal and crucially natural gas,

它是歐盟最大的石油、煤炭和關鍵的天然氣供應商。

which makes up the biggest  part of Europe's energy mix.

構成了歐洲能源組合的最大部分。

European nations were buying gas from Russia at normal levels

歐洲國家正以正常水準從俄羅斯購買天然氣

at the start of 2022, but that came to  an end after Russia invaded Ukraine.

2022年年初，但在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後，這一切就結束了。

Moscow drastically reduced supplies to  Europe, and the EU revealed plans to

莫斯科大幅減少對歐洲的供應，而歐盟則透露計劃

wean itself off Russian energy, claiming the commodity had been “weaponized.”

擺脫俄羅斯能源，聲稱該商品已被 "武器化"。

It's unlikely that the EU and Russia  will restore their links any time soon,

歐盟和俄羅斯不太可能在短期內恢復它們的聯繫。

meaning governments will have to rely on energy  from other parts of the world to heat their homes.

這意味著政府將不得不依賴來自世界其他地區的能源來為他們的家庭供暖。

One option European governments were  excited about was liquefied natural gas.  

歐洲各國政府對液化天然氣的一個選擇感到興奮。

While Russia provided a decent  portion of the EU's LNG in 2021,  

雖然俄羅斯在2021年提供了歐盟液化天然氣的相當一部分。

so did countries like Qatar, Nigeria,  the United States and Algeria.

卡達、尼日利亞、美國和阿爾及利亞等國家也是如此。

But Europe is facing fierce competition.

但歐洲正面臨著激烈的競爭。

China was the world's top buyer of LNG in 2021.

2021年，中國是世界上最大的液化天然氣買家。

In 2022, however, China began  consuming less energy as the

然而，在2022年，中國開始減少能源消耗，因為

country's strict zero-Covid policy slowed down the economy.

國家嚴格的零科維德政策使經濟發展緩慢。

The head of the International Energy Agency  has warned that a rebound in China's economy  

國際能源署的負責人警告說，中國經濟的回升

will push up demand for LNG, and that  supply is going to struggle to keep up.

將推高對液化天然氣的需求，而供應將很難跟上。

When we look at the IEA analysis next year,  

當我們明年看IEA的分析時。

only a very small amount of new, additional LNG will come to markets.

只有非常少量的新的、額外的液化天然氣將進入市場。

Global LNG supply is expected to increase  by 20 billion cubic meters in 2023.

預計2023年，全球液化天然氣供應將增加200億立方米。

That may sound like a lot but consider the fact that an estimated

這聽起來可能很多，但考慮到這樣一個事實，即估計的

60 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas was imported into the EU in 2022.

2022年，歐盟進口了600億立方米的俄羅斯天然氣。

And it's not like that 20 billion cubic meters goes straight to Europe.

而且，這200億立方米並不是直接流向歐洲。

Much of the new supply has  already been contracted to China,

大部分新的供應已經被承包給中國。

with the country expected to capture over  85% of it to cope with post-lockdown growth.

預計該國將獲得其中85%以上的資金，以應對封鎖後的增長。

China was busy signing new LNG contracts in  2021, and it's been widely reported that Chinese  

中國在2021年忙於簽署新的液化天然氣合同，據廣泛報道，中國的

importers have been asked by the government  to stop reselling supplies to Europe and Asia.

政府已經要求進口商停止向歐洲和亞洲轉售物資。

If Chinese LNG imports recover to 2021 levels and Russian supplies of natural gas completely shut down,

如果中國的液化天然氣進口恢復到2021年的水準，而俄羅斯的天然氣供應完全關閉。

Europe could face a supply-demand gap of 30 billion cubic meters during the summer.

歐洲在夏季可能面臨300億立方米的供需缺口。

That's half of the total gas needed to fill  storage levels to 95% ahead of next winter.

這相當於在明年冬季之前將儲氣量填滿至95%所需天然氣總量的一半。

This is going to cost huge sums of money.

這將花費鉅額資金。

Energy companies, so utilities, will have to  import LNG at huge costs.

能源公司，所以公用事業，將不得不以巨大的成本進口液化天然氣。

At the same time, their retail tariffs are kind of capped, so they're going to make

同時，他們的零售關稅是有上限的，所以他們將使

a loss that will increase the need for  government bailouts of the energy sector.

這一損失將增加政府對能源部門的救助需求。

Governments are still having to help  small businesses and households with

政府仍然不得不幫助小企業和家庭解決

their energy bills, that's going to  cost hundreds of billions of euros.

他們的能源賬單，這將花費數千億歐元。

Since September 2021, nearly 600 billion euros has been set aside

自2021年9月以來，已經預留了近6000億歐元的資金

across EU countries to help defend  consumers from rising energy costs.

在歐盟各國，幫助保護消費者免受能源成本上漲的影響。

I caught up with economist Marco Valli to better understand how this will play out

我採訪了經濟學家Marco Valli，以更好地瞭解這將如何進行。

throughout the rest of Europe's economy.

整個歐洲經濟的其他部分。

The question here though, is how much more  can governments spend on the energy crisis?

但這裡的問題是，政府在能源危機上還能花多少錢？

Surely this can't be good for the economy,  surely this can't be good for inflation.

當然，這對經濟不可能是好事，這對通貨膨脹不可能是好事。

Governments should be ready and stand ready to continue to

各國政府應準備好並隨時準備繼續

support the most vulnerable part of the population.

支持人口中最脆弱的部分。

Households can purchase less goods and less services, once they're paying their bills,  

家庭可以購買更少的商品和服務，一旦他們支付了賬單。

and they're paying more expensive  electricity and gas prices.

而且他們正在支付更昂貴的電力和天然氣價格。

Along with the rising cost of energy,  

伴隨著能源成本的上升。

governments are tackling record  inflation and an economic slowdown.

政府正在應對創紀錄的通貨膨脹和經濟放緩。

This impacts consumers and business's ability to 

這影響了消費者和企業的能力

spend and in turn would reduce the  amount of money raised from tax.

支出，反過來會減少從稅收中籌集的資金。

As a result, the government's capacity to  provide financial support would be limited.

是以，政府提供財政支持的能力將是有限的。

Fiscal policy will have to become more  targeted, meaning that there will be less  

財政政策將不得不變得更有針對性，這意味著將有更少的

and less money to be spent for broader schemes  of support because I suspect that the money to  

而花在更廣泛的支持計劃上的錢就更少了，因為我懷疑，用於支持計劃的錢。

provide the relief and shielding everyone from  the energy shock is just simply not there.

提供救濟和屏蔽每個人的能量衝擊，只是根本不存在。

It's not going to be an easy year, let's say?

讓我們說，這不會是一個輕鬆的一年？

No, no, absolutely, for sure.

不，不，絕對的，肯定的。

But there is one bright spot. Some European policymakers

但也有一個亮點。一些歐洲政策制定者

have used the energy crisis to fast-track their green plans.

他們利用能源危機來快速推進他們的綠色計劃。

Some analysts are optimistic this could  actually pay off in the medium-term.

一些分析家樂觀地認為，這在中期內可能真的會得到回報。

We are actually positive, cautiously optimistic  that come 2024-2025, there might be the famous  

我們實際上是積極的，謹慎地樂觀地認為，到2024-2025年，可能會有著名的

green dividend available, because a lot of  companies and households will have invested  

綠色紅利可用，因為很多公司和家庭都會投資。

into improved energy efficiency, and that will give them an economic and competitive advantage.

成提高能源效率，而這將使他們獲得經濟和競爭優勢。

But between now and then it's going to be really painful, and that's going to hurt  

但從現在到那時，它將是非常痛苦的，這將會是一種傷害。

companies, households and governments.

公司、家庭和政府。