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  • On November 8th, the US will hold

    11月8日,美國將舉行

  • 475 separate federal elections.

    475次單獨的聯邦選舉。

  • If you vote in the US, you can vote in at least one of them.

    如果你在美國投票,你至少可以在其中一個地方投票。

  • The results will determine who controls these:

    結果將決定誰來控制這些。

  • the two houses of Congress.

    國會兩院。

  • After the 2020 election, Democrats controlled the House of Representatives

    2020年選舉後,民主黨人控制了眾議院

  • and the Senate, as well as the Presidency.

    和參議院,以及總統府。

  • The three bodies that have to align

    這三個機構必須保持一致

  • if you want to make new laws.

    如果你想制定新的法律。

  • And they did.

    而他們確實做到了。

  • But even when government is split between the parties.

    但是,即使政府在兩黨之間分裂。

  • Each one of these bodies still holds

    這些機構中的每一個人都仍然持有

  • tremendous power on its own.

    它本身具有巨大的力量。

  • So the importance of what this picture looks like

    是以,這張照片的重要性是什麼樣子的

  • can't be overstated.

    怎麼強調都不為過。

  • And each one of these three outcomes

    而這三種結果中的每一種

  • contains a very different story

    包含一個非常不同的故事

  • about the next 2 years in the US.

    關於美國未來2年的情況。

  • Scenario 1: Democrats keep both houses.

    情景1:民主黨人保留兩院。

  • This is not considered the most likely outcome.

    這被認為不是最可能的結果。

  • The Democrats have gotten a ton passed in the last two years.

    在過去的兩年裡,民主黨人已經通過了大量的工作。

  • My name's Li Zhou.

    我叫李周。

  • I am a politics reporter at Vox.

    我是Vox的一名政治記者。

  • I've been covering the hill for over 6 years now.

    我已經在山上報道了6年多了。

  • So if Democrats get to stick with this arrangement... then what?

    是以,如果民主黨人能夠堅持這種安排......那又如何?

  • One of the big things that they've said they'll do

    他們說要做的大事情之一是

  • is codify Roe V. Wade into federal law,

    是將Roe V. Wade編入聯邦法律。

  • and that would mean

    而這將意味著

  • a national protection for access to abortion.

    對獲得墮胎的國家保護。

  • Paid family leave, subsidies for child care,

    帶薪家庭假,對兒童護理的補貼。

  • universal pre-K, the PRO act which protects people's ability

    普及學前教育,保護人們能力的PRO法案

  • to organize and unionize.

    來組織和成立工會。

  • But there's a catch to all this.

    但這一切都有一個問題。

  • And it's connected to the reason Democrats haven't done any of it yet.

    而且這與民主黨人還沒有做任何事情的原因有關。

  • These laws are subject to a rule the Senate has

    這些法律受制於參議院的一項規則

  • (It's called the filibuster)

    (這就是所謂的 "拉布")。

  • that requires not 51 out of 100 votes to pass a law...

    這不需要100票中的51票來通過法律...

  • but 60 out of 100.

    但100人中有60人。

  • And Democrats want to change that rule.

    而民主黨人希望改變這一規則。

  • Just... not all Democrats.

    只是......不是所有的民主黨人。

  • They have this 50/50 very narrow majority

    他們有這種50/50的非常狹窄的多數

  • but they only have 48 who are actually down to change the rules.

    但他們只有48人真正下來改變規則。

  • And so they need at least 52,

    是以,他們至少需要52個。

  • is kind of the magic number

    是一種神奇的數字

  • that Democrats have been hoping for, in order to both

    民主黨人一直希望的,為了既能

  • change the rules, and then pass a lot of the bills

    改變規則,然後通過大量的法案

  • that we've talked about.

    我們已經談論過的。

  • Scenario 2: Republicans win the House of Representatives.

    情景二。共和黨人贏得眾議院。

  • When the House is controlled by a different party

    當眾議院由不同的政黨控制時

  • than the presidency or the Senate.

    而不是總統或參議院。

  • That gives them a lot of leverage.

    這給了他們很大的籌碼。

  • My name's Dylan Matthews.

    我的名字叫迪倫-馬修斯。

  • I'm a reporter at Vox.

    我是Vox的一名記者。

  • They also have a lot of control over investigations.

    他們對調查也有很大的控制權。

  • They can run committees.

    他們可以管理委員會。

  • They can subpoena people.

    他們可以傳喚人。

  • They can make people testify. They can dredge up documents.

    他們可以讓人們出庭作證。 他們可以挖出文件。

  • We can see that by going back

    我們可以看到,通過回溯

  • to the last time the government looked like this.

    到上次政府看起來像這樣。

  • One thing that the GOP majority

    國民黨多數派的一件事

  • in 2011 and onward did was investigate

    在2011年和以後的時間裡,我們做的是調查

  • the Obama administration extensively.

    奧巴馬政府廣泛參與了這項工作。

  • The "fast and furious" gun smuggling scandal,

    迅猛的 "槍支走私醜聞"。

  • on the Benghazi scandal after those attacks happened in 2012.

    在2012年這些襲擊事件發生後的班加西醜聞上。

  • "-Easily obtained...." "Well, but Senator, again—"

    "-很容易獲得....""好吧,但參議員,還是那句話--"

  • "Within hours, if not days."

    "幾小時內,如果不是幾天的話。"

  • After Democrats won in 2018...

    民主黨人在2018年獲勝後...

  • They also launched a bunch of investigations

    他們還展開了一系列調查

  • into the Trump administration, one of which

    進入特朗普政府,其中一個

  • culminated in the first impeachment.

    最終導致了第一次彈劾。

  • Investigations can matter a lot.

    調查可能很重要。

  • More often than not, they're kind of a sideshow.

    更多的時候,他們是一種旁觀者。

  • My sense ahead of time

    我提前的感覺

  • is that that lever of power will be less important

    是,權力的槓桿將不那麼重要

  • than the ability to block must-pass legislation

    比起阻止必須通過的立法的能力

  • on spending and the debt ceiling.

    關於支出和債務上限的問題。

  • The debt ceiling fight in 2011

    2011年的債務上限之爭

  • was one of the first stories I covered at The Washington Post.

    是我在《華盛頓郵報》最初報道的故事之一。

  • The debt ceiling is this limit

    債務上限就是這個限度

  • on how much the federal government can borrow.

    關於聯邦政府可以借多少錢的問題。

  • Almost the entirety of the international financial system

    幾乎整個國際金融體系

  • is built on the idea that US Treasury bonds are a safe asset.

    是建立在美國國債是一種安全資產的想法上。

  • Once you hit the debt ceiling, they are no longer a low risk asset.

    一旦你觸及債務上限,它們就不再是低風險資產。

  • That would lead to investments,

    這將導致投資。

  • and borrowing, and homes and everything

    和借貸,以及房屋和一切

  • being way more expensive throughout the world

    在全世界範圍內的價格要高得多

  • which would be a pretty major financial crisis.

    這將是一個相當大的金融危機。

  • You need the House and Senate and the President

    你需要眾議院、參議院和總統

  • to agree for the debt ceiling to be raised.

    同意提高債務上限。

  • The most dramatic example of that

    這方面最戲劇性的例子是

  • happened in the summer of 2011.

    發生在2011年的夏天。

  • The debt ceiling was coming due in early August.

    債務上限在8月初即將到期。

  • That gave House Speaker John Boehner and members of his caucus

    這讓眾議院議長約翰-博納和他的核心小組成員

  • incredible leverage. Unless the Obama administration

    令人難以置信的槓桿作用。除非奧巴馬政府

  • was willing to let the debt ceiling be breached,

    願意讓債務上限被突破。

  • they kind of had to come to a deal.

    他們不得不達成一項協議。

  • Ultimately, $2.1 trillion in cuts

    最終,2.1萬億美元的削減量

  • to the National Parks, Head Start programs, the FBI

    到國家公園、啟蒙計劃、聯邦調查局

  • National Institutes of Health, the National Science Foundation.

    國家衛生研究院,國家科學基金會。

  • One area of the budget is pandemic prevention.

    預算的一個領域是大流行病預防。

  • The choice that was made to invest a lot less

    做出的選擇是減少投資。

  • in preventing pandemics as a part of this deal..

    在預防大流行病方面,作為這項交易的一部分。

  • It certainly couldn't have helped.

    這當然不可能有什麼幫助。

  • I mostly expect this Congress to be more hard-line,

    我主要期望本屆國會更加強硬。

  • in terms of their demands and unwillingness to compromise.

    在他們的要求和不願意妥協的情況下。

  • Scenario 3: Republicans win the House and the Senate.

    情景3:共和黨人贏得眾議院和參議院。

  • The Senate has to confirm any federal judge.

    參議院必須確認任何聯邦法官。

  • I'm Ian Millhiser, I'm a lawyer

    我是Ian Millhiser,我是一名律師

  • and I cover the Supreme Court for Vox.

    和我為Vox報道最高法院。

  • The president nominates

    總統提名

  • anyone who's going to be appointed to the federal bench

    任何將被任命為聯邦法官的人

  • but they don't get the job

    但他們沒有得到工作

  • unless a majority of the Senate votes

    除非參議院的大多數人投票

  • to confirm that individual.

    以確認該人。

  • There's a little more than 800

    有超過800個

  • active judges in the federal system.

    聯邦系統中的現役法官。

  • There are district judges who try cases,

    有的地區法官負責審理案件。

  • Court of Appeals or circuit judges.

    上訴法院或巡迴法官。

  • And then there's the Supreme Court.

    然後是最高法院。

  • The last time we had a Democratic president and a Republican Senate

    上一次我們有一個民主黨總統和一個共和黨參議院的時候

  • was in 2015 and 2016.

    是在2015年和2016年。

  • Under Barack Obama, the Republican Senate

    在巴拉克-奧巴馬執政期間,共和黨的參議院

  • basically hit stop on Supreme Court confirmations

    基本上對最高法院的確認打住了

  • and on nearly all Court of Appeals confirmations.

    以及幾乎所有上訴法院的確認。

  • And then, of course, what happened was

    然後,當然,所發生的是

  • Republicans held all those seats open

    共和黨人持有所有這些空缺席位

  • until Donald Trump got into office

    直到唐納德-特朗普上臺

  • and then filled them with Republicans.

    然後用共和黨人填充它們。

  • Trump's judges have overruled Roe v. Wade,

    特朗普的法官已經推翻了羅伊訴韋德案。

  • which is the reason why abortion is now illegal in many US states.

    這就是為什麼現在美國許多州的墮胎是非法的原因。

  • A sweeping reinterpretation

    大刀闊斧的重新詮釋

  • of the Second Amendment, our firearms amendment.

    的第二修正案,我們的槍支修正案。

  • And now judges are striking down gun laws left and right.

    而現在,法官們正在左右逢源地廢除槍支法。

  • A wholesale attack on voting rights,

    對投票權的全面攻擊。

  • particularly on the Voting Rights Act, which is the law that prevents

    特別是關於《投票權法》,該法防止了對婦女的暴力行為。

  • race discrimination.

    種族歧視。

  • At the lower court level,

    在下級法院層面。

  • we just had three Trump judges declare the entire

    我們剛剛有三位特朗普法官宣佈整個

  • Consumer Financial Protection Bureau unconstitutional.

    消費者金融保護局不符合憲法。

  • If Republicans take the Senate

    如果共和黨人拿下參議院

  • then they can block the confirmation of any judge.

    那麼他們就可以阻止對任何法官的確認。

  • If you hold those seats open,

    如果你保持這些席位的開放。

  • they're still vacant when a Republican comes to office,

    當共和黨人上任時,它們仍然是空缺的。

  • and then the Republican can fill them.

    然後共和黨人可以填補它們。

  • The Republican Party

    共和黨

  • which is an institution that wants power...

    這是個想要權力的機構......

  • has figured out that if it controls the judiciary,

    已經意識到,如果它控制了司法機構。

  • it can gain, potentially, a permanent veto power

    它可以獲得潛在的永久否決權

  • over any law that's enacted

    超過任何已頒佈的法律

  • over any regulatory policy that's enacted

    對所頒佈的任何監管政策進行監督

  • regardless of who controls the White House

    無論誰控制白宮

  • and regardless of who controls the Congress.

    而不管誰控制了國會。

  • They're going after voting rights hard.

    他們正在努力爭取投票權。

  • And if you don't have the right to vote

    而如果你沒有選舉權

  • then you don't have any rights.

    那麼你就沒有任何權利。

  • Eventually, the voters who've been disenfranchized

    最終,那些被剝奪了權利的選民們

  • don't have any recourse

    沒有任何追索權

  • because they have no way to change who controls the government.

    因為他們沒有辦法改變控制政府的人。

  • And the government is controlled by people who don't share their interests.

    而政府是由那些與他們利益不一致的人控制的。

  • So that's the worst case scenario.

    所以這是最糟糕的情況。

  • Right now, we're still at the point where

    現在,我們仍然處於這樣的階段

  • you know, elections are the best method that can be used

    你知道,選舉是可以使用的最佳方法。

  • in order to reverse America's democratic decline.

    以扭轉美國的民主衰退。

  • Out of the 475 individual

    在475名個人中

  • House and Senate elections that will decide control of Congress...

    將決定國會控制權的眾議院和參議院選舉...

  • most of them are not close races.

    他們中的大多數都不是激烈的競爭。

  • The election will really be decided by these races...

    選舉將真正由這些比賽決定...