But the White House disagrees and biden says it doesn't sound to me like a recession.

但白宮不同意，拜登說，在我看來，這並不像經濟衰退。

It seems like at this point, politicians are changing the definition of anything to suit their agenda, inflation is super high.

似乎在這一點上，政客們正在改變任何東西的定義，以適應他們的議程，通貨膨脹率超級高。

But they will tell, you know, it is not, we don't have an inflation problem.

但他們會告訴，你知道，這不是，我們沒有通貨膨脹問題。

It's under control.

它在控制之下。

I mean prices are rising faster than ever.

我的意思是價格比以往任何時候都上漲得快。

How on earth we don't have an inflation problem.

我們到底是如何沒有通貨膨脹問題的。

Thank God.

感謝上帝。

The fact finally admitted the problem and raising the rates to fix it.

事實終於承認了這個問題，並提高利率來解決這個問題。

A recession is a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced.

衰退是一個暫時的經濟衰退期，期間貿易和工業活動減少。

Generally identified by a fall in GDP in two consecutive quarters.

一般以連續兩個季度的國內生產總值下降來確定。

So if we have two consecutive quarters where the gross national product grows by a negative percentage, then it's a recession.

是以，如果我們有連續兩個季度的國民生產總值增長為負百分比，那麼就是經濟衰退。

And if it lasts over two years, it turns into a depression.

而如果它持續兩年以上，就會變成抑鬱症。

I remember back when Covid hit the world and travel was the president.

我記得當年科維德襲擊世界時，旅行是總統。

They accused him of everything possible, lying about everything.

他們指責他做了一切可能的事情，對一切事情撒謊。

He mismanaged Covid and the economy fell into recession.

他對科維德管理不善，經濟陷入衰退。

But now democrats are also mismanaging the crisis and instead of taking the responsibility for their actions, they're literally changing the definition of the world recession.

但現在民主黨人也在對危機進行錯誤的管理，他們沒有為自己的行為負責，而是實實在在地改變了世界經濟衰退的定義。

Apparently they tried to change the definition in Wikipedia but they couldn't, I never thought it would come to that soon.

顯然，他們試圖改變維基百科中的定義，但他們無法做到，我沒想到會很快走到這一步。

Numbers for Q three will come out and I wouldn't be surprised if they are going to be negative as well and inflation will most likely stay high, which means the Fed will keep hiking the rates, which means more expensive mortgage rates.

第三季度的數字將會出來，如果它們也是負數，我也不會感到驚訝，通貨膨脹很可能會保持在高位，這意味著美聯儲將繼續加息，這意味著更昂貴的抵押貸款利率。

House prices already called off as the demand is vanishing.

房價已經被叫停了，因為需求正在消失。

But builders are building more homes, although they are still rising, But far from the rate they have been in the last two years.

但建築商正在建造更多的房屋，雖然仍在上升，但遠遠沒有達到過去兩年的速度。

And in many states, prices are actually declining.

而且在許多州，價格實際上正在下降。

Sellers no longer have the upper hand to negotiate and push buyers to over pay.

賣家不再有談判和推動買家超額付款的優勢。

From the moment COVID-19 started to this day, median house prices grew from $322,000 to $440,000.

從COVID-19開始到今天，房價中位數從32.2萬美元增長到44萬美元。

Even prior to the 2008 housing crush prices didn't grow that much, which has led many experts to believe that we might be on the brink of another real estate catastrophe.

即使在2008年的住房擠壓之前，價格也沒有增長那麼多，這使得許多專家認為，我們可能處於另一場房地產災難的邊緣。

Will home prices finally collapse?

房價最終會崩潰嗎？

Is the crush is going to be as painful as the 2008 crush will answer all of these questions and many more.

暗戀是否會像2008年的暗戀一樣痛苦，將回答所有這些問題和更多問題。

But before we do that, give this video a thumbs up.

但在我們這樣做之前，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指。

And let's dive in The economy is one huge organism.

讓我們深入瞭解一下，經濟是一個巨大的有機體。

If one part of it suffers, it affects the rest of it.

如果它的一個部分受到影響，就會影響到它的其他部分。

Think of any economic crisis, it didn't just influence itself, but took down with it.

想想任何經濟危機，它不只是影響了自己，而是連帶著把它拖垮了。

The rest of the economy.

經濟的其他部分。

The 2008 housing bubble is a perfect example.

2008年的房地產保麗龍就是一個完美的例子。

The in charge world suffered from January 2008 to February 2009.

2008年1月至2009年2月，負責任的世界受到了影響。

The S&P 500 fell by almost 50%.

標準普爾500指數下跌了近50%。

The housing crash in the US led to the euro debt crisis crushing one economy after another.

美國的房地產崩盤導致歐債危機壓垮了一個又一個經濟體。

In europe countries like Greece are still suffering from the consequences of the crisis.

在歐洲，像希臘這樣的國家仍在遭受危機的後果。

Even Apple, which has nothing to do with the crisis fell by over 50%.

甚至與危機無關的蘋果公司也下跌了50%以上。

Trillions of dollars were wiped out of the market.

數萬億美元被從市場中抹去。

So if we want to find out what is going to happen to the housing market, we have to consider what is happening in the economy overall, after the.com bubble, when the stock market crashed, the Fed lowered the rates to 1.5% by 2002 to stimulate growth.

是以，如果我們想知道住房市場會發生什麼，我們必須考慮經濟總體上發生了什麼。在.com保麗龍之後，當股票市場崩潰時，美聯儲在2002年之前將利率降低到1.5%，以刺激增長。

That's when the housing crisis began, when rates were low and regulations were losing everyone who could take a mortgage took a mortgage lending prices to dramatically rise.

這就是住房危機開始的時候，當時的利率很低，法規失去了每個能拿抵押貸款的人都拿抵押貸款的價格急劇上升。

Within two years, prices rose by 15%.

在兩年內，價格上漲了15%。

That's when the Fed realized that the housing market is out of control and it needs to raise the rates before it turns into a bubble.

這時，美聯儲意識到住房市場已經失去控制，它需要在它變成保麗龍之前提高利率。

But it was too late.

但這已經太晚了。

It had already turned into a bubble from July 2004 to December.

從2004年7月到12月，它已經變成了一個保麗龍。

It raised the rates from 1% to over 2% by July 2005 rates were raised to 3.25%.

它將利率從1%提高到2%以上，到2005年7月，利率提高到3.25%。

Within the next 12 months, they were raised to 5.25%.

在接下來的12個月內，它們被提高到5.25%。

That's when the market began to crumble and crushed by the end of the next year.

這時，市場開始崩潰，並在第二年年底前被擊垮。

Let's see how that compares to what's happening now in the market.

讓我們看看這與現在市場上發生的情況相比如何。

The median house price increase from Q2 2022.

從2022年第二季度開始，房價的中位數增長。

Q2 2022 by over 35%.

2022年第二季度增長超過35%。

That's more than double the increase in the last housing crisis.

這比上一次住房危機時的增幅高出一倍多。

The fact is raising the rates to stop the inflation which also includes the housing market.

事實上，提高利率是為了阻止通貨膨脹，這也包括住房市場。

But house prices are still rising.

但房價仍在上漲。

House prices will most likely One stop until inflation stops and inflation doesn't seem to stop until the Fed crushes the demand.

房價很可能在通貨膨脹停止之前一停止，而通貨膨脹似乎在美聯儲壓制需求之前不會停止。

Since the beginning of the year, the Fed has raised the rates from less than .25% up to 2.5%.

自今年年初以來，美聯儲已將利率從不到0.25%提高到2.5%。

At this rate rates can easily cross 5% within the next 12 months.

按照這種速度，在未來12個月內，利率很容易超過5%。

And the Fed can't instantly lower the rates until inflation will stabilize around 2-3%.

而美聯儲不可能立即降低利率，直到通脹將穩定在2-3%左右。

New house supplies have already returned to pre-2008 crush of course, active listing in the market, R&D.

新房供應已經恢復到2008年之前的壓制當然，在市場上積極上市，研發。

It's back but a lot of people are still holding into their houses since prices are still rising.

它已經回來了，但很多人仍在堅守他們的房子，因為價格仍在上漲。

And also we have decided to sell our in getting the best price possible since demand is cooling down but prices are still rising to a certain extent feni may now forecast the United States home prices will rise 10.8% in 2022.

還有，我們已經決定出售我們的在獲得最好的價格，因為需求正在降溫，但價格仍在一定程度上上漲，費尼可能現在預測美國的房價將在2022年上漲10.8%。

It still remains to be seen how far they will climb next year.

明年他們會攀升到什麼程度，仍有待觀察。

But that would mean that over 50% price increase in less than three years.

但這將意味著在不到三年的時間裡，價格上漲超過50%。

Does that sound to you?

你覺得這樣好嗎？

Sustainable.

可持續的。

A lot of analysts are saying that house prices are driven by strong demand.

很多分析家都說，房價是由強勁的需求推動的。

But the last crisis was also fueled by strong demand as well.

但上一次危機也是由強勁的需求推動的。

Of course, there were other factors.

當然，還有其他因素。

But remember each crisis is unique, they're not two identical crisis is bubbles are formed in different ways.

但請記住，每個危機都是獨特的，它們不是兩個相同的危機，是保麗龍以不同的方式形成。

The only thing that unites them is the fact that at the end of the day, they all burst when Michael Barry shorted mortgage backed securities in 2005 and 2006, the companies that sold to him, these securities consider him a fool if you have watched the movie, the Big Short, you know how people treated him when he was ready to short whatever mortgage backed securities was available, it took almost two years for the housing market to crash.

唯一讓他們團結起來的是，到最後，他們都爆倉了，當邁克爾-巴里在2005年和2006年做空抵押貸款支持的證券時，那些賣給他的公司，這些證券認為他是個傻瓜，如果你看了電影《大空頭》，你知道當他準備做空任何抵押貸款支持的證券時，人們是如何對待他的，房市崩潰幾乎用了兩年時間。

After barry short in the market, it doesn't happen overnight.

在市場上巴里做空後，並不是一夜之間就能完成的。

Unlike the stock market, house prices don't jump up and down.

與股票市場不同，房價不會上躥下跳。

They usually rise by a few percent to catch up with inflation or rise dramatically and turned into a bubble and then collapse.

它們通常上漲幾個百分點以趕上通貨膨脹，或者大幅上漲，變成保麗龍，然後崩潰。

It's difficult to make any precise predictions at this point, but it seems like in a year or two or maybe by the end of the next year, once the Fed raises the rates high enough to crush mortgage applicants, but inflation still remains at around four or 5% at least.

目前很難做出任何精確的預測，但似乎在一兩年內，或者明年年底，一旦美聯儲將利率提高到足以壓垮抵押貸款申請人，但通脹率至少仍保持在4%或5%左右。

We'll see house prices cracking down mortgage rates already rolls tremendously For the first time since early 19 eighties, the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate has climbed 2% points in just four month window, climbing from 3.11% in december to 5.11%.

我們將看到房價下跌，抵押貸款利率已經大幅攀升 自19世紀80年代初以來，30年固定抵押貸款平均利率首次在短短四個月內攀升2%，從12月的3.11%攀升到5.11%。

The United States has entered into a recession, a recession where Fed doesn't have the comfort of knowing the rates, so expecting that the demand for homes will keep rising is too optimistic.

美國已經進入了經濟衰退期，這個衰退期中，美聯儲並沒有知道利率的安慰，所以期待房屋需求會持續上升是過於樂觀的。

How long will the recession last?

衰退將持續多久？

Is another question, a question that we can't really answer since it depends on so many factors, such as when will the russo Ukrainian war end?

是另一個問題，一個我們無法真正回答的問題，因為它取決於如此多的因素，例如，俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭何時結束？

Will china's housing bubble burst?

中國的房地產保麗龍會破裂嗎？

How will the EU the United States largest trading partners solve its energy crisis and many more.

美國最大的貿易伙伴歐盟將如何解決其能源危機等等。

The Federal Reserve has taken the measures to the extreme print, Unbelievable amounts of money in 2020 and 2021, creating a huge bubble.

美聯儲已經採取了極端的措施，在2020年和2021年印製了令人難以置信的貨幣量，創造了一個巨大的保麗龍。

Now it's time to pay back, but the country is facing geopolitical risks that pushing it to tech measures that will only worsen the crisis if it wasn't, for example, for the Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the inflation wouldn't be as bad as it's today since energy and food prices globally wouldn't be rising so much.

現在是時候償還了，但該國正面臨著地緣政治風險，迫使它採取技術措施，這隻會使危機惡化，如果不是因為俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭，通貨膨脹不會像今天這樣嚴重，因為全球能源和食品價格不會上漲這麼多。

That's it for today.

今天就到此為止。