Name: 揭祕：巨大的通貨膨脹即將到來，現在就準備好!- 沃倫-巴菲特 (LEAKED: Huge Inflation Is Coming, Prepare Now! - Warren Buffett)
Uploaded: 2022-11-01T18:23:03.000Z
Duration: 10 min 38 s

情態副詞

We finally have some good news! Inflation in the US has fallen to 8.5 percent. It's

我們終於有了一些好消息!美國的通貨膨脹率已經下降到8.5%。這是

轉承詞

not really great news; even though it's lower than previous months' 9.1 percent, that's

並非真正的好消息；儘管它比前幾個月的9.1%低，但這是

still a lot.  In fact, at this rate, the economy can't

仍然很多。  事實上，按照這個速度，經濟不可能

function properly. Thanks to the chairman of the fed, J Powell, who kept telling us

正常運作。感謝美聯儲主席J-鮑威爾，他不斷告訴我們

that inflation is not an issue and kept printing trillions of dollars. Look at this chart.

通貨膨脹不是一個問題，並不斷印刷數萬億美元。看看這個圖表。

Inflation kept climbing month after month. The Fed knew for sure that we were going to

通貨膨脹月復一月地不斷攀升。美聯儲肯定地知道，我們將

have massive inflation but decided to keep the public in the dark.

有大規模的通貨膨脹，但決定將公眾矇在鼓裡。

Of course, they had a good reason to do that. We had a virus that was spreading across the

當然，他們這樣做是有充分理由的。我們有一種病毒，正在向整個世界蔓延。

globe. We couldn't risk letting people get back to

全球。我們不能冒險讓人們回到

work, so we printed trillions of dollars. But the moment Russia invaded Ukraine, the

工作，所以我們印製了數萬億的美元。但在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的那一刻，

virus somehow disparaged, and we longer print trillions of dollars. Look at the number of

病毒在某種程度上被貶低了，而我們不再印刷數萬億美元。看一下

cases. Before the invasion, there was a huge spike right before the invasion, and the number

案件。在入侵之前，有一個巨大的高峰，就在入侵之前，這個數字

of cases dropped significantly. People are back to work, and we no longer are worried

的案件顯著下降。人們重新開始工作，我們不再擔心

about the pandemic as if it's just another disease like the flu.

關於這種大流行病，好像它只是像流感一樣的另一種疾病。

I am not a conspiracy theorist or a supporter of Trump, but they made such a big deal out

我不是陰謀論者，也不是特朗普的支持者，但他們把事情搞得如此之大。

of Trump when he treated covid like the flu. If the government decided to open the country

的特朗普，當他把科維德當成流感時。如果政府決定開放國家

and get the economy back to work instead of printing trillions of dollars, we certainly

並讓經濟恢復工作，而不是印刷數萬億美元，我們當然會

wouldn't have such huge inflation in the first place.

首先就不會有如此巨大的通貨膨脹。

Regardless of what happened, it's what it is, so the question we should be focusing

不管發生了什麼，事情就是這樣，所以我們應該關注的問題是

on is - how do you profit from inflation? We have to adapt to the circumstances and

上是--你如何從通貨膨脹中獲利？我們必須適應環境和

learn how to profit from the crisis. There are millions of opinions and millions of experts

學習如何從危機中獲利。有數以百萬計的意見和數以百萬計的專家

on the internet, but I suggest we take the advice of the greatest investor of all time,

在互聯網上，但我建議我們聽取有史以來最偉大的投資者的建議。

Warren Buffett. This is not the first time the country has been going through a crisis,

沃倫-巴菲特這並不是國家第一次經歷危機。

and definitely not the last. War ren Buffett is almost a century old, so he has been in

而且絕對不是最後一個。戰仁巴菲特已經快一個世紀了，所以他一直在

multiple inflationary periods. So let's find out warren Buffett's strategy to make millions

多個通脹期。是以，讓我們來了解一下沃倫-巴菲特賺取數百萬的策略

of dollars when there is such high inflation. If you are ready, give this video a thumbs

當有如此高的通貨膨脹率時，美元就會貶值。如果你準備好了，請為這個視頻豎起大拇指

Warren Buffett's first most important advice is “be exceptionally good at something”.

沃倫-巴菲特的第一個最重要的建議是 "在某些方面要特別出色"。

That doesn't sound like a piece of advice you would like to hear. You probably expected

這聽起來並不像你想聽到的建議。你可能期望

something like investing in this company or buying that stock. But the truth is that most

諸如投資這家公司或購買那隻股票。但事實是，大多數

people don't have the kind of money that they could invest and are comfortable watching

人們沒有那種可以投資的錢，而且看著很舒服。

how millions or even at least hundreds of thousands of dollars would fill their bank

充滿了數百萬甚至至少幾十萬美元的銀行存款。

accounts. But here is what people are usually good at, trading their time for money. It's

賬目。但這裡是人們通常擅長的事情，用他們的時間換取金錢。這就是

what we have been taught since primary school.

我們從小學起就被教導的東西。

That's, of course, not the best way to make money since your time is limited, but your

當然，這不是最好的賺錢方式，因為你的時間是有限的，但你的

time is the only thing that you have absolute control over, and no one can take it away.

時間是你唯一可以絕對控制的東西，沒有人可以奪走它。

So the best way to hedge yourself against inflation is by investing in yourself and

是以，對沖通貨膨脹的最佳方式是投資於自己和

being exceptional at something. Be it a doctor, engineer, teaching, whatever. Because no matter

在某方面出類拔萃。無論是醫生、工程師、教師，還是什麼。因為無論如何

what crisis we are going through, even if it's inflationary, the demand for basic skills

我們正在經歷什麼危機，即使是通貨膨脹，對基本技能的需求也是如此

will always be there. People aren't just going to stop visiting doctors just because it's

將永遠存在。人們不會因為現在的情況就不去看醫生了。

expensive. People will visit doctors regardless of the price, and during high inflation, people

昂貴。無論價格如何，人們都會去看醫生，而在高通脹時期，人們

with skills can raise their prices easily without affecting the demand much.

有技能的人可以很容易地提高價格而不影響需求。

The only problem is that you should do this way before inflation hits. Which means it's

唯一的問題是，你應該在通貨膨脹到來之前就這樣做。這意味著它是

a bit late now since inflation has been around for over a year now and reached almost double

現在有點晚了，因為通貨膨脹已經存在一年多了，幾乎達到了兩倍

digits last few months. So if you want to be ready for the next inflation, think about

過去幾個月的數字。是以，如果你想為下一次通貨膨脹做好準備，請考慮一下

investing in yourself, in your skills, in being the master of your craft. Be the best

投資於你自己，投資於你的技能，投資於成為你工藝的主人。成為最好的

surgeon, teacher, or lawyer. If you have done that, here is what warren

外科醫生、教師或律師。如果你已經這樣做了，下面是沃倫

Buffett suggests next.  According to him,

巴菲特接下來建議。  據他說。

The second best protection is a wonderful business,” which means a company in which

第二好的保護是一個美妙的企業，"這意味著一個公司在其中

the products are in demand even if the company does have to raise prices.

即使公司不得不提高價格，產品也是有需求的。

No matter how badly we hate inflation, it's just part of the economic cycle. It's going

無論我們多麼討厭通貨膨脹，它只是經濟週期的一部分。它將會

to happen regardless of whether you like it or not. Another fact is that not all businesses

無論你是否喜歡，都會發生。另一個事實是，並非所有企業

are going to survive. A lot of businesses are going to suffer when they start raising

是要生存的。很多企業在開始籌集資金時將會受到影響。

prices, and if they don't, their profits will shrink since the cost of their products

如果他們不這樣做，他們的利潤就會縮水，因為他們的產品成本會降低。

or services is going to rise due to inflation. So what are the businesses that can withstand

或服務會因通貨膨脹而上升。那麼，有哪些企業能夠經受住

inflation? In a 1981 letter to shareholders, Buffett

通貨膨脹？在1981年給股東的信中，巴菲特

possibly spelled this all out as clearly as ever, writing that companies that tend to

他寫道："那些傾向於將自己的產品和服務賣給別人的公司，可能會像以前一樣清楚地說明這一切。

withstand an inflationary environment “must have two characteristics: (1) an ability to

經得起通脹環境的考驗，"必須具備兩個特點：（1）有能力

increase prices rather easily (even when product demand is flat and capacity is not fully utilised)

相當容易地提高價格（即使是在產品需求平平、產能沒有得到充分利用的情況下）。

without fear of significant loss of either market share or unit volume, and (2) an ability

而不必擔心市場份額或組織、部門數量的重大損失，以及（2）有能力

to accommodate large dollar volume increases in business (often produced more by inflation

以適應業務量的大幅增長（通常是由通貨膨脹造成的）。

than by real growth) with only minor additional investment of capital.”

而不是通過實際增長），只需增加少量的資本投資"。

He is basically saying that if a business is selling a necessity like bread, it can

他基本上是說，如果一個企業銷售的是麵包這樣的必需品，它可以

increase its prices and people will keep buying the bread. It's not going to change anything.

增加其價格，人們將繼續購買麵包。這不會改變什麼。

Secondly, the business doesn't need extra huge capital investment to grow or adjust

第二，企業不需要額外的巨大資本投資來增長或調整

to the circumstances. For example, if it's a railway business, it takes massive initial

適應情況。例如，如果是一個鐵路企業，它需要大量的初始

capital to build the railway. However, if its an online business, serving an extra client

資本來建設鐵路。然而，如果它是一個在線業務，為一個額外的客戶提供服務

isn't going to cost anything extra like the app store. An extra user is not going

不會像應用商店那樣花費任何額外費用。一個額外的用戶不會

to cost apple anything. Even an extra million users isn't going to require apple to make

這將使蘋果付出任何代價。即使是額外的一百萬用戶，也不需要蘋果公司做出任何改變。

any significant investment in the app store to manage it.

在應用商店中的任何重大投資來管理它。

So what are the companies that Buffett invested in during the current inflation?

那麼，在目前的通貨膨脹中，巴菲特投資的公司有哪些呢？

Buffett didn't reveal everything he bought but did mention several highlights, including

巴菲特沒有透露他買的所有東西，但確實提到了幾個亮點，包括

boosting Berkshire's stake in oil giant Chevron to $26 billion, up from $4.5 billion at the

將伯克希爾在石油巨頭雪佛龍公司的股份提升至260億美元，而當時是45億美元。

beginning of the year to make it one of the conglomerate's four biggest investments. Berkshire

年初，使其成為該企業集團的四大投資之一。伯克希爾

also spent billions buying up 14% of Occidental Petroleum's shares in the first half of March

3月上半月還花費數十億美元購買了西方石油公司14%的股份

and added to its already massive investment in Apple stock.

並增加了其在蘋果股票上已有的大量投資。

Oil prices are rising due to reasons we have explored previously. And people aren't going

由於我們之前探討過的原因，油價正在上漲。而人們並沒有去

to stop using oil. The demand will keep only rising regardless of the price. What's going

要停止使用石油。無論價格如何，需求只會不斷上升。將要發生的事情

to happen at the end of the day is that the increase in oil prices will just influence

最終發生的情況是，油價的上漲將只是影響到我們的生活。

everything else. The business will pass that cost to consumers.

其他一切。企業將把這個成本轉嫁給消費者。

Secondly, Apple is the type of company that has turned technology into a necessity. Just

其次，蘋果是那種將技術變成必需品的公司。只是

because we are going through such a huge crisis, it doesn't mean people will stop buying iPhones

因為我們正在經歷如此巨大的危機，這並不意味著人們會停止購買iPhone。

or MacBooks. iPhones are an essential part of the global economy. People have built entire

或MacBooks。iPhone是全球經濟的一個重要組成部分。人們已經建立了整個

businesses around them. People might stop buying cars but not iPhones or MacBooks. They

他們周圍的企業。人們可能會停止購買汽車，但不會停止購買iPhone或MacBooks。他們

are not going to get rid of their apple subscription. This is a new reality that they have built,

是不會擺脫他們的蘋果訂閱。這是他們建立的一個新的現實。

and that's why despite the fact that Buffett avoids tech companies, he gladly invests in

這就是為什麼儘管巴菲特避開了科技公司，但他很樂意投資於

Apple, and his investment has paid off very well.

蘋果公司，而且他的投資得到了很好的回報。

But even if you have this information in your hands, you still can't do much about it. What

但是，即使你手中有這些資訊，你仍然不能做什麼。什麼

are the chances that you can pick a great company? Even though these are important characteristics,

是你可以挑選一個偉大的公司的機會？即使這些是重要的特徵。

you still have to go through their financial statements to make sure that they have enough

你仍然需要查看他們的財務報表，以確保他們有足夠的資金。

liquidity. They are not drowning in debt. They have great profit margins. They are not

流動性。他們沒有淹沒在債務中。他們有很大的利潤率。他們沒有

one stop away from bankruptcy. The management is wise enough, and the company has a visionary

離破產只有一站之遙。管理層有足夠的智慧，公司有遠見的

board. I mean, these are all indicators that you look at to make sure that the company

董事會。我的意思是，這些都是你看的指標，以確保該公司

you are investing in is a great investment. But most people aren't capable of doing

你所投資的是一項偉大的投資。但大多數人沒有能力做到

it. It's not an insult. It's just a fact because people are busy mastering their own

它。這不是一種侮辱。這只是一個事實，因為人們正忙於掌握自己的

craft. Most people simply don't have the time to master the art of investing. That's why

手藝。大多數人根本沒有時間來掌握投資的藝術。這就是為什麼

巴菲特對每個人都有一個建議。

“I do not think the average person can pick stocks,” and recommends the S&P 500 index

"我不認為普通人可以挑選股票，"並推薦標普500指數

fund to “have for a long, long time to people.”

基金對 "有很長很長的時間給人"。

We have enough data to believe that over the long run, the SP 500 has made great returns.

我們有足夠的數據相信，從長期來看，SP 500指數已經取得了巨大的回報。