Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

由 AI 自動生成
  • March 16, the chairman of the fed, J Powell, said that a recession is unlikely despite

    3月16日,美聯儲主席J-鮑威爾表示,儘管經濟衰退不太可能發生,但是

  • the fact that the fed has raised the rates and cut off the lifeline support to the economy.

    事實上,美聯儲已經提高了利率並切斷了對經濟的生命線支持。

  • A few months later, on June 22, Powell said a recession is 'a possibility' bu t not likely.

    幾個月後,6月22日,鮑威爾說,經濟衰退是 "一種可能性",但不可能。

  • Mmm, I wonder what has changed.

    嗯,我想知道有什麼變化。

  • GDP growth rates for q2 are out, and real growth decreased at an annual rate of 0.6

    第二季度GDP增長率出爐,實際增長年率下降0.6

  • percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter.

    2022年第二季度,繼第一季度下降1.6%之後,又下降了1%。

  • Which means, technically, we are in a recession.

    這意味著,從技術上講,我們正處於經濟衰退之中。

  • But J Powell said he does not think the U.S. is currently in a recession.

    但J-鮑威爾說,他不認為美國目前處於經濟衰退。

  • Seems like he has his own interpretation of a recession.

    似乎他對經濟衰退有自己的解釋。

  • That's probably what happens when you fail at your job.

    這可能是你在工作中失敗時的情況。

  • However, a month later, on the 30th of August, he said that 'some pain' is on the horizon”.

    然而,一個月後,在8月30日,他說'一些痛苦'即將到來"。

  • I wonder what that means?

    我想知道這意味著什麼?

  • The economy is declining, the stock market has crashed, and companies are going bankrupt.

    經濟正在下滑,股票市場崩潰,公司正在破產。

  • But J Powell keeps avoiding the word recession.

    但J-鮑威爾一直迴避經濟衰退這個詞。

  • He is willing to call it however you want but not - a recession.

    他願意隨你怎麼說,但不是--經濟衰退。

  • Let me tell you whatsome painmeans.

    讓我告訴你 "一些痛苦 "是什麼意思。

  • It means putting people out of work, shutting down small businesses because the cost of

    這意味著讓人們失去工作,關閉小企業,因為這些企業的成本太高。

  • money goes up because the interest rates go up.”

    貨幣上漲,因為利率上升。"

  • Companies can no longer borrow money to sustain the growth they had the last 2 years.

    公司不能再借錢來維持過去兩年的增長了。

  • Some people find it difficult to understand that money isn't going to solve all of your

    有些人覺得很難理解,金錢並不能解決你所有的問題。

  • problems.

    問題。

  • If a business is unprofitable, it can survive if you keep feeding it cash.

    如果一個企業無利可圖,只要你不斷給它提供現金,它就能生存。

  • But it doesn't matter how long you will keep feeding it.

    但你會持續餵養它多久並不重要。

  • If it's not going to become profitable, it will collapse the moment the financial

    如果它不打算變得有利可圖,那麼它將在金融領域的那一刻崩潰。

  • support dries up.

    支撐物乾涸了。

  • Have you ever been to Subway?

    你去過Subway嗎?

  • Usually, there are 3 to 4 people working at a subway store.

    通常情況下,一個地鐵站有3到4個人在工作。

  • If we double the number of workers there, they are not going to produce double the number

    如果我們把那裡的工人數量增加一倍,他們就不會生產出雙倍數量的產品。

  • of subways.

    的地鐵。

  • Their productivity will most likely diminish since they will disturb each other since the

    他們的生產力很可能會降低,因為他們會互相干擾,因為

  • place is too small for 8 people to work productively.

    地方太小,8個人都無法有效地工作。

  • That's known as the law of diminishing return when any additional input will cause a negative

    這就是所謂的收益遞減法則,即任何額外的投入都會導致負面的收益。

  • output.

    產出。

  • But at the end of the day, you have to pay them all, at least the minimum wage.

    但在一天結束時,你必須支付他們所有人,至少是最低工資。

  • That's not a problem when you have access to free money, but when that free money is

    當你有機會獲得免費的錢時,這不是一個問題,但當這些免費的錢是

  • not available, you start running into a trouble.

    如果沒有,你就開始遇到麻煩了。

  • You have to cut your workforce and try to be as efficient as possible with just 3 employees

    你必須削減你的勞動力,並試圖在只有3名員工的情況下儘可能地提高工作效率

  • at every subway store.

    在每個地鐵站都有。

  • Thats why we have news such as thisBedbath and beoying are slashing more than 20% of

    這就是為什麼我們有這樣的新聞:"Bedbath和Beoying正在削減超過20%的收入。

  • their stores”.

    他們的商店"。

  • Paypal began firing employees since May.

    支付寶自5月起開始解僱員工。

  • Coinbase will lay off 18 percent of its employees.

    Coinbase將裁減18%的員工。

  • Tesla already began laying off 10 percent of its workforce, with ex-employees confirming

    特斯拉已經開始裁減10%的員工,前僱員確認

  • on LinkedIn that they've been laid off.

    在LinkedIn上說他們已經被解僱了。

  • While the fed is trying to calm us down that everything is ok and we shouldn't worry, the

    當美聯儲試圖讓我們冷靜下來,說一切都很好,我們不應該擔心,但

  • reality is far from that, especially if you ask Ray Dalio who believes that the US is

    現實遠非如此,特別是如果你問雷-達里奧,他認為美國是

  • on a brink of a catastrophe!

    處於災難的邊緣!

  • Why United state's debt crisis will lead the country to a crisis the world hasn't seen

    為什麼美國的債務危機將導致該國陷入一場世界上從未見過的危機?

  • before?

    之前?

  • Why it wont just crash the markets, but might cause the US economy to collapse!

    為什麼它不會只是讓市場崩潰,而是可能導致美國經濟崩潰!

  • How high does the fed to raise the rates to finally bring inflation down?

    美聯儲要把利率提高到多高才能最終使通貨膨脹率下降?

  • And how to prepare for the biggest crash in American history.

    以及如何為美國曆史上最大的崩潰做準備。

  • We will answer all of these questions and many more.

    我們將回答所有這些問題以及更多的問題。

  • But before we do that give this video a thumbs up

    但在我們這樣做之前,請對這段視頻豎起大拇指。

  • and let's dive in.

    並讓我們潛入其中。

  • The main job of the federal reserve is to protect

    美聯儲的主要工作是保護

  • the value of the dollar, to keep people's faith in the dollar, to make sure that your

    價值,以保持人們對美元的信心,確保你的

  • dollars tomorrow won't become worthless.

    明天的美元不會變得一文不值。

  • So, when inflation is almost hitting double digits, it's clear that the fed is failing

    是以,當通貨膨脹率幾乎達到兩位數時,很明顯,美聯儲是失敗的

  • at its most important job.

    在其最重要的工作。

  • But it isn't always the fault of the fed.

    但這並不總是美聯儲的錯。

  • The federal government is to blame as well since the president literally appoints the

    聯邦政府也應受到指責,因為總統實際上是任命的。

  • chairman of the fed, who is the most important decision maker in the fed.

    美聯儲主席,他是美聯儲最重要的決策人。

  • Secondly, sometimes the government overspends, like distributing stimulus checks or forgiving

    第二,有時政府會超支,比如發放刺激性支票或寬恕

  • student loans.

    學生貸款。

  • There is nothing called free money.

    沒有什麼叫免費的錢。

  • If you have borrowed money, you have to return it, plus interest - that's how capitalism

    如果你借了錢,你必須歸還,加上利息--這就是資本主義的方式。

  • works.

    作品。

  • The moment you misuse that printing press and keep printing to pay for everything, the

    當你濫用那臺印刷機,不斷印刷來支付一切的時候,

  • value of your currency will quickly plummet.

    你的貨幣價值將迅速暴跌。

  • Imagine hypothetically there are 10 goods and 10 dollars in the entire economy.

    想象一下,假設整個經濟中有10種商品和10美元。

  • In this hypothetical example, each good will cost a single dollar.

    在這個假設的例子中,每件商品將花費一美元。

  • If we throw an additional 10 dollars into the economy, now there will be 20 dollars

    如果我們向經濟中再投10美元,現在就有20美元了

  • but still 10 goods in the economy which will make the cost of each good to double to match

    但經濟中仍有10種商品,這將使每種商品的成本增加一倍以匹配

  • the demand and supply.

    勞動力需求和供應。

  • Of course, it's just a theoretical example but you get the point.

    當然,這只是一個理論上的例子,但你會明白這一點。

  • When you throw trillions of dollars into the economy, that's what you get, whether you

    當你把數萬億美元扔進經濟中時,這就是你得到的東西,無論你是

  • like it or not.

    不管你喜不喜歡。

  • And instead of trying to solve the problem by limiting the supply of money, the fed is

    而美聯儲沒有試圖通過限制貨幣供應量來解決問題,而是在

  • saying that inflation is caused by the shortage of energy or supply chain problems.

    說通貨膨脹是由能源短缺或供應鏈問題造成的。

  • Yes, of course, these are the factors that are contributing to inflation but that still

    是的,當然,這些都是造成通貨膨脹的因素,但這仍然是

  • doesn't exclude the fact that there are too many dollars in the economy.

    並不排除經濟中存在太多的美元這一事實。

  • Back in the 1970s, when inflation hit 11 percent.

    早在1970年代,當通貨膨脹率達到11%時。

  • Guess what Arthur Burns said; who were the chairmen of the fed back then?

    猜猜阿瑟-伯恩斯說了什麼;那時誰是聯邦的主席?

  • He blamed the shortage or energy and food.

    他指責能源和食物的短缺。

  • Later though, he raised the rates overnight to more than 12% by mid-1974.

    雖然後來他連夜提高了利率,到1974年中期超過了12%。

  • That instantly cut inflation by half, which was good news.

    這一下子就把通貨膨脹率降低了一半,這是個好消息。

  • But that naturally created a recession since suddenly, there was significantly less money

    但這自然造成了經濟衰退,因為突然間,錢明顯減少了。

  • flowing into the economy, which increased the unemployment rate to about 9% from 5%.

    流入經濟,這使失業率從5%增加到約9%。

  • Instead of keeping the rates high long enough, Burns panicked and lowered the rates, which

    伯恩斯沒有將利率保持在足夠高的水準,而是驚慌失措地降低了利率,這

  • brought inflation back.

    把通貨膨脹帶回來了。

  • Inflation remained high until Paul Volcker was appointed as the chairman of the fed in

    在保羅-沃爾克被任命為美聯儲主席之前,通貨膨脹率一直居高不下。

  • 1979.

    1979.

  • He raised the rates up to 19 percent and kept them high for a few years.

    他將利率提高到19%,並在幾年內保持高位。

  • He was unpopular.

    他是不受歡迎的。

  • People hated him, but he left the office with inflation at around 3 percent.

    人們憎恨他,但他離開辦公室時,通貨膨脹率在3%左右。

  • And it seems as if the exact scenario is repeating now.

    而現在看來,似乎確切的情景正在重演。

  • Instead of raising the rates last year, the fed denied any signs of inflation.

    去年美聯儲沒有加息,而是否認了任何通貨膨脹的跡象。

  • Now it's not raising them high enough and blaming global energy prices.

    現在,它沒有把它們提高到足夠高的水準,並指責全球能源價格。

  • The economy is getting into a recession, and they are changing the definition of recession.

    經濟正在進入衰退期,而且他們正在改變衰退的定義。

  • Come on, guys!

    來吧,夥計們!

  • Raising the rates will be painful, but you know what's more painful?

    提高利率將是痛苦的,但你知道什麼是更痛苦的?

  • Seeing the value of your savings vanish!

    看到你的儲蓄價值消失!

  • According to Ray Dalio, that's what happens when empires reach their peak.

    根據雷-達里奧的說法,這就是帝國達到頂峰時的情況。

  • The entire empire runs on debt.

    整個帝國依靠債務運行。

  • However, someone's debt is someone else's financial asset.

    然而,某人的債務就是他人的金融資產。

  • Literally, a passive income asset.

    從字面上看,是一種被動收入資產。

  • When United State's debt rises, someone else on the other side of the world holding

    當美國的債務上升時,世界另一端的其他人就會持幣待購。

  • that debt becomes wealthier.

    該債務變得更加富有。

  • Over time as that debt keeps growing, sustaining it becomes even more difficult.

    隨著時間的推移,隨著該債務不斷增長,維持該債務變得更加困難。

  • It's like when you get into debt.

    這就像你陷入債務時一樣。

  • When you get a mortgage, you only have to make a 1500 dollar payment every month.

    當你獲得抵押貸款時,你每月只需支付1500美元的款項。

  • Not a burden!

    不是負擔!

  • But then you get a car loan, a credit card loan, a travel loan, a loan to renovate your

    但後來你獲得了汽車貸款、信用卡貸款、旅遊貸款、裝修貸款等。

  • house.

    房子。

  • But your income doesn't rise at that speed!

    但你的收入並沒有以這種速度上升!這就是你的收入。

  • So, at some point, you either have to cut your spending or go bankrupt.

    是以,在某些時候,你要麼削減開支,要麼破產。

  • The problem is that when the source of the wealth is printing money, nobody even pays

    問題是,當財富的來源是印錢時,甚至沒有人支付

  • much attention to where the wealth is coming from.

    非常關注財富的來源。

  • Everyone got their paycheque, but nobody's money was taken away, so it's politically

    每個人都得到了他們的薪水,但沒有人的錢被拿走,所以在政治上是這樣的

  • easier.

    更容易。

  • So you hear of the discussions of 'We need to spend money on this' and 'We need to

    是以,你聽到的討論是 "我們需要在這方面花錢 "和 "我們需要

  • spend money on that,' but there's not much talk about 'Where does the money come

    花錢在這上面,'但沒有多少人談及'錢從哪裡來?

  • from?

    從?

  • Everyone was concerned about the stimulus checks, but no one was worried, asking where

    每個人都在關注刺激性支票,但沒有人擔心,問在哪裡?

  • is the money coming from.

    錢是怎麼來的。

  • And now the US is indirectly leading a war against Russia by defending Ukraine.

    而現在,美國正通過保衛烏克蘭間接地上司一場針對俄羅斯的戰爭。

  • Where is the money coming from?

    這些錢從哪裡來?

  • Student loan forgiveness!

    免除學生貸款!

  • Where does the money is coming from?

    這些錢從哪裡來?

  • The list goes on and on.

    這樣的例子不勝枚舉。

  • And then we wonder why we have so much inflation.

    然後我們想知道為什麼我們有這麼多的通貨膨脹。

  • You cannot deceive the basic laws of demand and supply.

    你不能欺騙需求和供應的基本規律。

  • I know that raising rates will tumble the profits, but high inflation will squeeze consumer

    我知道提高利率會使利潤暴跌,但高通脹會擠壓消費者的利益。

  • buying power as well, so the consumers are losing either way.

    購買力也是如此,所以消費者無論如何都會損失。

  • The only difference is that savers will not suffer in the long run, which is how things

    唯一的區別是,從長遠來看,儲蓄者不會受到影響,事情就是這樣。

  • are supposed to be.

    是應該的。

  • Sooner or later, the fed will have to acknowledge that, and it will raise the rates so high

    遲早,美聯儲將不得不承認這一點,它將把利率提高到很高的水準

  • and long enough that it will cause some kind of stagnation that will drag on for a few

    足夠長的時間,它將導致某種停滯,並將拖上幾個月。

  • years at least.

    至少有幾年的時間。

  • We have already talked about how to protect yourself during high inflation, but here are

    我們已經談到了如何在高通貨膨脹期間保護自己,但以下是

  • a few suggestions from Ray Dalio: Build as diverse a portfolio as possibleranging

    雷-達里奧的一些建議:建立儘可能多樣化的投資組合--範圍包括

  • from inflation index bonds, which Dalio recommended above regular bonds, to physical assets like

    從達利歐推薦的高於普通債券的通貨膨脹指數債券,到實物資產,如

  • gold.

    黃金。

  • Figure out how many weeks you could financially survive if you lost your job.

    計算一下,如果你失去工作,你可以在經濟上生存多少個星期。

  • It always pays to find out whatever the worst-case scenario is and cover yourself

    "無論最壞的情況是什麼,總是要弄清楚的,併為自己提供保障。

  • from that.

    從這一點來看。

  • When stagflation hits, you cannot do much, so it's always better to prepare earlier.

    當滯脹來臨時,你不能做很多事情,所以早一點準備總是好的。

  • Thanks for watching and see you in the next one.

    謝謝你的觀看,下一集見。

March 16, the chairman of the fed, J Powell, said that a recession is unlikely despite

3月16日,美聯儲主席J-鮑威爾表示,儘管經濟衰退不太可能發生,但是

字幕與單字
由 AI 自動生成

單字即點即查 點擊單字可以查詢單字解釋