Name: 每個人都將在67天內被消滅 - 雷-達里奧 (Everyone Will Be Wiped Out in 67 Days - Ray Dalio)
Uploaded: 2022-11-01T18:22:41.000Z
Duration: 11 min 36 s

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March 16, the chairman of the fed, J Powell, said that a recession is unlikely despite

3月16日，美聯儲主席J-鮑威爾表示，儘管經濟衰退不太可能發生，但是

the fact that the fed has raised the rates and cut off the lifeline support to the economy.

事實上，美聯儲已經提高了利率並切斷了對經濟的生命線支持。

A few months later, on June 22, Powell said a recession is 'a possibility' bu t not likely.

幾個月後，6月22日，鮑威爾說，經濟衰退是 "一種可能性"，但不可能。

GDP growth rates for q2 are out, and real growth decreased at an annual rate of 0.6

第二季度GDP增長率出爐，實際增長年率下降0.6

percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter.

2022年第二季度，繼第一季度下降1.6%之後，又下降了1%。

Which means, technically, we are in a recession.

這意味著，從技術上講，我們正處於經濟衰退之中。

But J Powell said he does not think the U.S. is currently in a recession.

但J-鮑威爾說，他不認為美國目前處於經濟衰退。

Seems like he has his own interpretation of a recession.

似乎他對經濟衰退有自己的解釋。

That's probably what happens when you fail at your job.

這可能是你在工作中失敗時的情況。

However, a month later, on the 30th of August, he said that 'some pain' is on the horizon”.

然而，一個月後，在8月30日，他說'一些痛苦'即將到來"。

The economy is declining, the stock market has crashed, and companies are going bankrupt.

經濟正在下滑，股票市場崩潰，公司正在破產。

But J Powell keeps avoiding the word recession.

但J-鮑威爾一直迴避經濟衰退這個詞。

He is willing to call it however you want but not - a recession.

他願意隨你怎麼說，但不是--經濟衰退。

Let me tell you what “some pain” means.

讓我告訴你 "一些痛苦 "是什麼意思。

It means putting people out of work, shutting down small businesses because the cost of

這意味著讓人們失去工作，關閉小企業，因為這些企業的成本太高。

money goes up because the interest rates go up.”

Companies can no longer borrow money to sustain the growth they had the last 2 years.

公司不能再借錢來維持過去兩年的增長了。

Some people find it difficult to understand that money isn't going to solve all of your

有些人覺得很難理解，金錢並不能解決你所有的問題。

If a business is unprofitable, it can survive if you keep feeding it cash.

如果一個企業無利可圖，只要你不斷給它提供現金，它就能生存。

But it doesn't matter how long you will keep feeding it.

但你會持續餵養它多久並不重要。

If it's not going to become profitable, it will collapse the moment the financial

如果它不打算變得有利可圖，那麼它將在金融領域的那一刻崩潰。

Usually, there are 3 to 4 people working at a subway store.

通常情況下，一個地鐵站有3到4個人在工作。

If we double the number of workers there, they are not going to produce double the number

如果我們把那裡的工人數量增加一倍，他們就不會生產出雙倍數量的產品。

Their productivity will most likely diminish since they will disturb each other since the

他們的生產力很可能會降低，因為他們會互相干擾，因為

place is too small for 8 people to work productively.

地方太小，8個人都無法有效地工作。

That's known as the law of diminishing return when any additional input will cause a negative

這就是所謂的收益遞減法則，即任何額外的投入都會導致負面的收益。

But at the end of the day, you have to pay them all, at least the minimum wage.

但在一天結束時，你必須支付他們所有人，至少是最低工資。

That's not a problem when you have access to free money, but when that free money is

當你有機會獲得免費的錢時，這不是一個問題，但當這些免費的錢是

not available, you start running into a trouble.

如果沒有，你就開始遇到麻煩了。

You have to cut your workforce and try to be as efficient as possible with just 3 employees

你必須削減你的勞動力，並試圖在只有3名員工的情況下儘可能地提高工作效率

Thats why we have news such as this “Bedbath and beoying are slashing more than 20% of

這就是為什麼我們有這樣的新聞："Bedbath和Beoying正在削減超過20%的收入。

Coinbase will lay off 18 percent of its employees.

Tesla already began laying off 10 percent of its workforce, with ex-employees confirming

特斯拉已經開始裁減10%的員工，前僱員確認

在LinkedIn上說他們已經被解僱了。

While the fed is trying to calm us down that everything is ok and we shouldn't worry, the

當美聯儲試圖讓我們冷靜下來，說一切都很好，我們不應該擔心，但

reality is far from that, especially if you ask Ray Dalio who believes that the US is

現實遠非如此，特別是如果你問雷-達里奧，他認為美國是

Why United state's debt crisis will lead the country to a crisis the world hasn't seen

為什麼美國的債務危機將導致該國陷入一場世界上從未見過的危機？

Why it wont just crash the markets, but might cause the US economy to collapse!

為什麼它不會只是讓市場崩潰，而是可能導致美國經濟崩潰!

How high does the fed to raise the rates to finally bring inflation down?

美聯儲要把利率提高到多高才能最終使通貨膨脹率下降？

And how to prepare for the biggest crash in American history.

以及如何為美國曆史上最大的崩潰做準備。

We will answer all of these questions and many more.

我們將回答所有這些問題以及更多的問題。

But before we do that give this video a thumbs up

但在我們這樣做之前，請對這段視頻豎起大拇指。

The  main job of the federal reserve is to protect

the value of the dollar, to keep people's faith in the dollar, to make sure that your

價值，以保持人們對美元的信心，確保你的

明天的美元不會變得一文不值。

So, when inflation is almost hitting double digits, it's clear that the fed is failing

是以，當通貨膨脹率幾乎達到兩位數時，很明顯，美聯儲是失敗的

But it isn't always the fault of the fed.

The federal government is to blame as well since the president literally appoints the

聯邦政府也應受到指責，因為總統實際上是任命的。

chairman of the fed, who is the most important decision maker in the fed.

美聯儲主席，他是美聯儲最重要的決策人。

Secondly, sometimes the government overspends, like distributing stimulus checks or forgiving

第二，有時政府會超支，比如發放刺激性支票或寬恕

If you have borrowed money, you have to return it, plus interest - that's how capitalism

如果你借了錢，你必須歸還，加上利息--這就是資本主義的方式。

The moment you misuse that printing press and keep printing to pay for everything, the

當你濫用那臺印刷機，不斷印刷來支付一切的時候，

value of your currency will quickly plummet.

Imagine hypothetically there are 10 goods and 10 dollars in the entire economy.

想象一下，假設整個經濟中有10種商品和10美元。

In this hypothetical example, each good will cost a single dollar.

在這個假設的例子中，每件商品將花費一美元。

If we throw an additional 10 dollars into the economy, now there will be 20 dollars

如果我們向經濟中再投10美元，現在就有20美元了

but still 10 goods in the economy which will make the cost of each good to double to match

但經濟中仍有10種商品，這將使每種商品的成本增加一倍以匹配

Of course, it's just a theoretical example but you get the point.

當然，這只是一個理論上的例子，但你會明白這一點。

When you throw trillions of dollars into the economy, that's what you get, whether you

當你把數萬億美元扔進經濟中時，這就是你得到的東西，無論你是

And instead of trying to solve the problem by limiting the supply of money, the fed is

而美聯儲沒有試圖通過限制貨幣供應量來解決問題，而是在

saying that inflation is caused by the shortage of energy or supply chain problems.

說通貨膨脹是由能源短缺或供應鏈問題造成的。

Yes, of course, these are the factors that are contributing to inflation but that still

是的，當然，這些都是造成通貨膨脹的因素，但這仍然是

doesn't exclude the fact that there are too many dollars in the economy.

並不排除經濟中存在太多的美元這一事實。

Back in the 1970s, when inflation hit 11 percent.

早在1970年代，當通貨膨脹率達到11%時。

Guess what Arthur Burns said; who were the chairmen of the fed back then?

猜猜阿瑟-伯恩斯說了什麼；那時誰是聯邦的主席？

He blamed the shortage or energy and food.

Later though, he raised the rates overnight to more than 12% by mid-1974.

雖然後來他連夜提高了利率，到1974年中期超過了12%。

That instantly cut inflation by half, which was good news.

這一下子就把通貨膨脹率降低了一半，這是個好消息。

But that naturally created a recession since suddenly, there was significantly less money

但這自然造成了經濟衰退，因為突然間，錢明顯減少了。

flowing into the economy, which increased the unemployment rate to about 9% from 5%.

流入經濟，這使失業率從5%增加到約9%。

Instead of keeping the rates high long enough, Burns panicked and lowered the rates, which

伯恩斯沒有將利率保持在足夠高的水準，而是驚慌失措地降低了利率，這

Inflation remained high until Paul Volcker was appointed as the chairman of the fed in

在保羅-沃爾克被任命為美聯儲主席之前，通貨膨脹率一直居高不下。

He raised the rates up to 19 percent and kept them high for a few years.

他將利率提高到19%，並在幾年內保持高位。

People hated him, but he left the office with inflation at around 3 percent.

人們憎恨他，但他離開辦公室時，通貨膨脹率在3%左右。

And it seems as if the exact scenario is repeating now.

而現在看來，似乎確切的情景正在重演。

Instead of raising the rates last year, the fed denied any signs of inflation.

去年美聯儲沒有加息，而是否認了任何通貨膨脹的跡象。

Now it's not raising them high enough and blaming global energy prices.

現在，它沒有把它們提高到足夠高的水準，並指責全球能源價格。

The economy is getting into a recession, and they are changing the definition of recession.

經濟正在進入衰退期，而且他們正在改變衰退的定義。

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每個人都將在67天內被消滅 - 雷-達里奧 (Everyone Will Be Wiped Out in 67 Days - Ray Dalio)

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