Name: 一個關鍵數字可能在中期選舉中給民主黨人帶來厄運 (One key number that could spell doom for Democrats in the midterms)
Uploaded: 2022-11-01T17:30:54.000Z
Duration: 4 min 8 s

選舉即將來臨，我需要一個鈴鐺。

History suggests that the single biggest predictor of how a midterm election is going to go is the popularity or the unpopularity of the sitting president in the United States.

歷史表明，預測中期選舉走向的最大因素是美國在任總統的受歡迎程度或不受歡迎程度。

And if that history repeats itself on november 8th, that's a very bad thing for democrats.

如果這一歷史在11月8日重演，那對民主黨人來說就是一件非常糟糕的事情。

Here's why President joe biden's job approval rating among americans has dipped to 40% in the latest gallup survey, A number that should instill fear In the hearts of Democratic candidates and strategists trying to stave off defeat.

這就是為什麼在最新的蓋洛普調查中，喬-貝登總統在美國人中的工作支持率下降到40%，這個數字應該在民主黨候選人和試圖避免失敗的戰略家心中灌輸恐懼。

And that polling is in line with CNN's poll of polls, which puts Biden's average approval rating at just 41%.

而這一民調結果與CNN的民調結果一致，即拜登的平均支持率僅為41%。

So Biden's approval rating has fallen steadily over the last couple of months.

是以，拜登的支持率在過去幾個月中持續下降。

In the Gallup data, he was at 44% approval in August and 42% approval in September the trend line.

在蓋洛普的數據中，他在8月份的支持率為44%，9月份的趨勢線為42%。

In other words, does not look good for him.

換句話說，對他來說並不是好事。

Democrats made a big bet on an issue they thought might help them overcome biden's numbers, but I'll get to why that doesn't look like it's working in just a minute.

民主黨人在一個問題上下了很大的賭注，他們認為這可能有助於他們克服拜登的人數，但我馬上就會說到為什麼這看起來沒有效果。

Professional teas now focus on this, Biden is in a worse position in gallup polling compared to his recent predecessors at a similar point in the final stretch before their first midterm election in office from Bill Clinton in 1994 was at 41% and who jumped up to 48% later in the month of october to donald trump at 43% in 2018.

專業茶館現在關注的是，拜登在蓋洛普民調中的地位比他最近的前任在他們上任後第一次中期選舉前的最後階段的類似點更差，從1994年的比爾-克林頓是41%，在10月下旬跳到48%，到2018年的唐納德-特朗普是43%。

And in each of those cases, poor numbers preceded steep losses for the President's party in the midterms.

而在每一個案例中，在總統的政黨在中期選舉中遭受嚴重損失之前，數字都很糟糕。

In 2018 trump's republicans lost a net of 40 House seats and the House majority in 2010, democrats lost a net 63 House seats and the House majority.

2018年特朗普的共和黨人淨損失40個眾議院席位和2010年的眾議院多數席位，民主黨人淨損失63個眾議院席位和眾議院多數席位。

And way back in 1994 democrats lost a net of 54 House seats and the House majority notice a trend here.

而早在1994年，民主黨人就淨失去了54個眾議院席位和眾議院多數席位，注意到這裡的一個趨勢。

All three of those presidents had better numbers going into the election than biden has right now.

這三位總統在選舉時的數據都比拜登現在的要好。

And it's not just recent history that suggests that low approval ratings for president spell doom, that's the um For his side in a midterm election in the history of Gallup's polling, which goes back decades.

而且，不僅僅是最近的歷史表明，總統的低支持率意味著厄運，這是蓋洛普民意調查歷史上的中期選舉中他一方的嗯，這可以追溯到幾十年前。

The average average seat loss for a president's party when that president's job approval is under 50% was 37 house seats.

當一位總統的工作支持率低於50%時，該總統所在政黨的平均席位損失為37個眾議院席位。

As of 2018, Biden's lingering unpopularity is a major factor in the decision by prominent political handicappers too.

截至2018年，拜登揮之不去的不受歡迎程度也是知名政治盤口家決定的一個主要因素。

Up their estimates of Republican House gains.

提高他們對共和黨眾議院收益的估計。

Recently, the Cook Political report with Amy walter moved its prediction from a net Republican gain of 10 to 20 house seats to a net gain of 12 to 25 House seats.

最近，庫克政治報告和艾米-沃爾特將其預測從共和黨淨增10至20個眾議院席位改為淨增12至25個眾議院席位。

Another campaign tip sheet made a similar shift, moving their ceiling on Republican gains in the House from 20 to 25.

另一份競選提示表也做出了類似的轉變，將他們對共和黨在眾議院的收益上限從20個移至25個。

The return folk of the electorate to biden and their general disapproval of him has overshadowed democrats attempts to make the 2022 election a referendum specifically on the Supreme Court's overturning of roe v wade over the summer.

選民對拜登的迴歸以及他們對拜登的普遍不認可，使民主黨人試圖將2022年的選舉變成專門針對最高法院在夏天推翻Roe訴Wade案的公投。

Democrats have placed a massive and I mean, massive bet on the issue since october 1st alone, democrats have spent more than 100 and $50 million on ads on abortion.

民主黨人在這個問題上下了很大的賭注，我是說，僅從10月1日開始，民主黨人就在墮胎問題上花費了1億多美元和5千萬美元的廣告。

That's almost half of the 331 million the party has spent on ads overall and dwarfs what is being spent on any other issue.

這幾乎是該黨總體廣告支出3.31億的一半，並且使在其他任何問題上的支出相形見絀。

So if you want to keep your right to choose, you can't vote for us.

是以，如果你想保持你的選擇權，你就不能投票給我們。

The problem for democrats is that the road decision is being overshadowed by Biden's unpopularity and independent voters seem to be in the mood to send him and his administration, not to mention democratic majorities in the House and Senate a stern message At this point, it seems overwhelmingly likely that republicans will pick up the net of five seats.

民主黨人的問題是，道路決定被拜登的不受歡迎所掩蓋，獨立選民似乎有心情向他和他的政府發出嚴厲的資訊，更不用說眾議院和參議院的民主黨多數派了 在這一點上，共和黨人似乎絕大部分都有可能獲得五個淨席位。

他們需要掌握眾議院的控制權。

Just for one example, the latest model from Fivethirtyeight gives republicans a better than 80 that's 80% chance of reclaiming the majority they lost four years ago.

僅舉一例，Fivethirtyeight的最新模型顯示，共和黨人奪回四年前失去的多數席位的可能性大於80，即80%。

The real question Now, I think appears to be how deep Democratic losses are going to be.

現在真正的問題，我認為似乎是民主黨的損失會有多深。

 And judging by biden's current approval ratings and the weight of history, it could be even worse than people are predicting today. 

而從拜登目前的支持率和歷史的分量來看，情況可能比人們今天預測的還要糟糕。