Name: 歐元區是否有分裂的風險？ (Is the euro zone at risk of breaking apart?)
Uploaded: 2022-10-30T17:35:33.000Z
Duration: 9 min 35 s

In July 2012, the European Central Bank's then-president Mario Draghi gave a speech

2012年7月，歐洲央行時任行長馬里奧-德拉吉發表了一個演講

基礎被動語態

that is now credited with saving the euro.

The ECB is ready to do whatever  it takes to preserve the euro,

歐洲央行已經準備好不惜一切代價來維護歐元。

Greece was in the middle of a debt crisis,

and economic instability was spreading  to other parts of the euro zone.

而經濟不穩定正在向歐元區的其他地區蔓延。

The ECB, the central bank for the countries that have adopted the euro, had to act.

歐洲央行，即採用歐元的國家的中央銀行，不得不採取行動。

Ten years later, the euro and  the euro zone are still intact.

十年之後，歐元和歐元區仍然完好無損。

But one core issue at the heart  of the crisis still remains.

但處於危機核心的一個核心問題仍然存在。

In fact, it rears its head every time the region comes under economic pressure.

事實上，每當該地區面臨經濟壓力時，它就會抬頭。

In 1999, 11 countries came together  to use one single currency: the euro.

1999年，11個國家共同使用一種單一貨幣：歐元。

As of 2022, the Euro area boasts 19 members.

截至2022年，歐元區擁有19個成員。

And while all the countries in the euro zone have one currency and one central bank setting interest rates,

而歐元區的所有國家都有一種貨幣和一箇中央銀行來設定利率。

it's up to their national governments  to set their fiscal agendas for the year.

由他們的國家政府來制定今年的財政議程。

This means making big decisions around  taxation and spending.

這意味著要圍繞稅收和支出做出重大決定。

Unsurprisingly, 19 diverse nations are not going to be in total lockstep on those decisions.

不出所料，19個不同的國家在這些決定上不會完全步調一致。

Take a look at their debt levels, for example.

例如，看一下他們的債務水準。

A country's debt-to-GDP ratio is a metric that compares a country's public debt

一個國家的債務與GDP的比率是一個衡量標準，它比較了一個國家的公共債務

to its total output – or Gross Domestic Product.

與其總產出--或國內生產總值的比例。

And the range across the euro area is huge.

而整個歐元區的範圍是巨大的。

Estonia, for example, has a debt-to-GDP  ratio of about 17%.

例如，愛沙尼亞的債務與GDP的比率約為17%。

And Greece, even to this day, has  a debt-to-GDP ratio of almost 190%.

而希臘，即使到了今天，其債務與GDP的比率幾乎達到190%。

When countries want to raise money from  international investors, they issue bonds.

當國家想從國際投資者那裡籌集資金時，他們會發行債券。

This is kind of like a country handing out “IOUs,” which pay interest, in exchange

這有點像一個國家派發 "欠條"，支付利息，以換取

for investment that they can then use to fund government projects, for example.

例如，他們可以利用這些投資來資助政府項目。

Bonds are a well-established part of the financial market.

債券是金融市場的一個成熟的組成部分。

So why should we care if one country  has more debt than another?

那麼，我們為什麼要關心一個國家的債務是否比另一個國家多？

Well, if a country is sitting on a lot of debt, this means every year,

好吧，如果一個國家坐擁大量債務，這意味著每年都有。

a big chunk of its financial commitments  will go towards servicing that debt

其財政承諾的很大一部分將用於償還該債務

The higher the debt load, the more investors worry every time yields go up.

債務負擔越高，每次收益率上升，投資者就越擔心。

A bond yield is how much an investor  earns from holding bonds.

債券收益率是指投資者從持有債券中獲得多少收益。

While bonds all have a set coupon rate – the term for a bond's fixed interest payments

雖然債券都有一個固定的票面利率--債券的固定利息支付的術語

– a bond can be bought for more  or less than its face value.

- 債券的購買價格可以高於或低於其面值。

This will affect the total yield of the bond.

For example, a bond bought at a lower price will have a higher yield

例如，以較低價格買入的債券會有較高的收益率

than a bond with the same coupon  bought at a higher price.

比起以更高價格購買的相同票面的債券。

Bond prices often fluctuate based on credit ratings.

債券價格經常根據信用評級而波動。

If a bond is seen as investment grade, you pay more.

如果一個債券被看作是投資級的，你就會付出更多。

如果它被視為 "垃圾"，你就會少付一些錢。

So as the price of a bond goes up,  its yield goes down and vice versa.

是以，隨著債券價格的上升，其收益率就會下降，反之亦然。

Angel Ubide is an expert on finance and European affairs.

Angel Ubide是金融和歐洲事務專家。

He explained what this means for the euro zone.

他解釋了這對歐元區意味著什麼。

Two identical firms or households have differing financial conditions, or funding conditions,

兩個相同的公司或家庭有不同的財務條件，或資金條件。

just as result of the country they are located in.

只是由於他們所在的國家的原因。

So, in that sense, your passport becomes a major determinant of your funding conditions.

是以，從這個意義上說，你的護照成為決定你資金條件的一個主要因素。

Of course, there should be differences, but when the differences are very big,

當然，應該有差異，但當差異非常大時。

then we can say that monetary policy  has been fragmented.

那麼我們可以說，貨幣政策已經支離破碎了。

Vitor Constancio was vice president of the ECB in 2012, during the European debt crisis.

維託-康斯坦西奧在2012年歐洲債務危機期間擔任歐洲央行副行長。

With monetary union like the one we have, the national debt markets are sort of demoted

有了像我們這樣的貨幣聯盟，國家債務市場就有點降級了

to regional markets and then the countries themselves can't issue their own currency.

到區域市場，然後這些國家自己不能發行自己的貨幣。

so that's a structural reason that makes  national debt more bound to become vulnerable

所以這是一個結構性的原因，使國債更有可能變得脆弱。

Basically what you're saying is the reason fragmentation exists is because the euro zone

基本上你的意思是，碎片化存在的原因是歐元區的

by design is a monetary union, it is not a fiscal union.

從設計上看，它是一個貨幣聯盟，而不是一個財政聯盟。

Let's return to the Greece crisis to understand how this can turn into a problem.

讓我們回到希臘危機，瞭解這如何會變成一個問題。

After it emerged that Greece's reported budget deficit had been grossly underrepresented,

在出現了希臘報告的預算赤字被嚴重低估之後。

there was concern that its government would stop making repayments on its debt.

人們擔心其政府會停止償還債務。

So, they started placing a higher premium on owning bonds issued by the country,

是以，他們開始對擁有國家發行的債券給予更高的溢價。

and Greek bond yields shot up, at one point touching 30%.

而希臘債券收益率飆升，一度觸及30%。

This effectively locked the country out  of the borrowing market.

這有效地將國家鎖定在借款市場之外。

No investors wanted to touch the bonds out of fear they wouldn't get all their money back.

沒有投資者願意碰這些債券，因為他們擔心無法拿回所有的錢。

A restructuring of Greek sovereign debt took place in 2012, which saw private investors

2012年對希臘主權債務進行了重組，私人投資者在這一過程中

take a 50% haircut in the value of the bonds they owned.

他們擁有的債券價值被削減50%。

It also saw the country enter into a very strict  austerity program under the supervision

它還看到該國在監督下進入了一個非常嚴格的緊縮計劃。

of the EU, IMF and the ECB to get its public finances in order.

歐盟、國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）和歐洲央行（ECB）的支持，使其公共財政狀況得到改善。

The Greek crisis was very important – not just  because obviously the tremendous economic

希臘危機是非常重要的--不僅因為顯然是巨大的經濟

damage to Greece – but also because it created this sort of feeling in the euro zone

對希臘的損害--但也因為它在歐元區造成了這種感覺。

that all of the crises were fiscal, and everything had to be solved from a fiscal standpoint.

所有的危機都是財政危機，一切都必須從財政的角度來解決。

But there was also another issue, that famous words between (Nicolas) Sarkozy and Angela Merkel

但也有另一個問題，就是（尼古拉）薩科齊和安格拉-默克爾之間的那句著名的話

that 'every resolution would require a bail in.'

It would require private investors  participate in the resolution.

它將要求私人投資者參與決議。

So that created this environment into which every deterioration of the fiscal outlook

是以，這就創造了這樣的環境，財政前景的每一次惡化都會影響到它。

made the investors believe there  was going to be a restructuring

that was forced by the rescue or the support.

Which is why this crisis didn't end with Greece.

這就是為什麼這場危機沒有以希臘為終點。

Investors were quick to price contagion to other countries like Italy and Spain,

投資者迅速對蔓延到意大利和西班牙等其他國家進行了定價。

where the fundamentals had not changed significantly.

And Europe's bond yields, which had been similar since  the Euro was introduced, began to diverge.

而歐洲的債券收益率，自歐元問世以來一直很相似，開始出現分歧。

Investors had stopped seeing the Eurozone as one cohesive bloc,

投資者已經不再將歐元區視為一個有凝聚力的集團。

but instead a group of disparate countries  with very different financials.

而是由一群財政狀況非常不同的國家組成。

In short, the Eurozone started to look fragmented.

簡而言之，歐元區開始顯得四分五裂。

This is when Draghi's “Whatever it Takes” speech came in.

這時，德拉吉的 "不惜一切代價 "的講話出現了。

After this speech, the ECB introduced a new tool  called Outright Monetary Transactions or OMT.

在這次演講之後，歐洲央行推出了一個新的工具，稱為直接貨幣交易（Outright Monetary Transactions）或OMT。

It would allow the central bank to purchase an unlimited amount of government bonds

它將允許中央銀行購買無限數量的政府債券

of indebted nations, subject to stringent conditions.

But the existence of it was enough to bring spreads  down because investors felt comforted

但它的存在足以使價差下降，因為投資者感到了安慰

對許多人來說，這是個轉捩點。

What do you think the consequences would have been if the ECB had not acted in such a way then?

如果歐洲央行當時沒有采取這樣的行動，你認為後果會是什麼？

Well, I don't want to speculate about that too much  but of course the pressure would continue.

好吧，我不想過多地猜測這個問題，但當然壓力會繼續存在。

Yields of Spain and Italy were very high; 7-8% and no justification really and so this fragmentation

西班牙和意大利的收益率非常高；7-8%，而且沒有任何理由，是以這種分散的情況

would perhaps continue and markets thought, apparently, that they could force

興許會繼續下去，而市場顯然認為，他們可以迫使

a restructuring also of Italian, Spanish, Portuguese debt.

意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙債務的重組。

Well, it didn't happen because we intervened and at that stage, we understood that this

好吧，它沒有發生，因為我們進行了干預，在那個階段，我們明白，這

字幕列表影片播放

歐元區是否有分裂的風險？ (Is the euro zone at risk of breaking apart?)

sort

situation

tremendous

basically