There are so many different factors right now that could potentially lead to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

現今有許多不同的潛在因素可能導致中國入侵台灣。

I think for older generations, they may remember a Taiwan that produced cheap toys.

我想對於老一輩來說，對台灣的印象還停留在生產平價玩具。

That, however, has really shifted.

然而，這點其實已經發生了改變。

Certainly on the semiconductor front, we've, over the years, developed a greater dependency on Taiwan.

確實過去幾年在半導體的生產上，我們對台灣的依賴越來越高。

We don't have much choice in the matter; the world sort of allowed Taiwan to become the top manufacturer of advanced chips.

就半導體這個部分，我們沒有太多的選擇；世界似乎同意讓台灣成為先進晶片的首要製造商。

Silicon Valley was created⏤we created the semiconductor industry here in America⏤and over the past few decades, we've just allowed ourselves to fall behind.

矽谷誕生了── 我們在美國創造了屬於自己的半導體業，但在過去的數十年裡，我們只是讓自己落後了。

If something happens in Taiwan, we are in trouble.

如果台灣發生了什麼事，我們也會跟著遭殃。

(The Bigger Picture - Why tensions are rising between China and Taiwan)

（整體局勢── 為何台灣與中國間的關係越發緊張）

The one-China policy is actually different from the one-China principle, which is a concept that mainland China has.

一個中國政策其實有別於一個中國原則，一中原則是中國所主張的。

So, Beijing says that there is one China that is under the communist government of the PRC.

因此，北京表示一個中國是在中國共產黨統治的共產政府之下。

At the end of the Civil War in 1949, the Communists won and formed the People's Republic of China.

1949年內戰結束後，共產黨戰勝並成立了中華人民共和國。

And then the Nationalists fled the mainland and went to the island of Taiwan, where they formed their own government.

隨後，國民黨逃離大陸並到了台灣島，在那他們成立了自己的政權。

Pre-dating 1979, we recognized Taiwan as the sole and legitimate government of China.

在1979年之前，我們承認臺灣是代表中國的唯一合法政府。

Then, under the Carter administration, that recognition was switched.

然後，在卡特執政時期，我們改變了這項承認。

The US has tried not to make any definitive statements about Taiwan and its status.

美國一直試圖不對台灣以及其地位發出任何表態。

We have the so-called "strategic ambiguity" in our commitment to Taiwan, which dates back 40 years

在我們對臺灣的承諾中，有所謂的「戰略模糊性」，可以追將其溯回40年前

because we were just as afraid that Taiwan would use the American security umbrella to be more assertive and declare independence as we were worried about China attacking,

因為我們擔心臺灣會因美國的安全保護傘而變得更加自信並宣佈獨立，而我們也同樣顧慮大陸攻台。

so we tried to prevent either of those possibilities by making it unclear whether we would come to Taiwan's defense.

所以為了防止任何一種可能性，我們對於是否會協助防禦台灣一直保持模糊態度。

Things have changed now primarily for two reasons.

而現在情況發生了變化，主要有兩個原因。

The threat from China is simply becoming⏤has simply become too significant to ignore.

來自中國的威脅很明顯變得──已經變得不容忽視。

Its military is⏤has grown enormously since the 1990s.

自20世紀90年代以來，其軍力得到了極大的發展。

With Taiwan, with its democracy, we don't have that same concern or, certainly, it's significantly reduced that Taiwan would... would... would unilaterally declare independence.

台灣，因為它的民主制度，我們沒有對其懷有和中國一樣的擔憂，或著說，中國讓台灣會單方面宣佈獨立的可能性減少了。

Taiwan's⏤has managed to position itself over the last 30 years as a contract manufacturer or original design manufacturer of choice for many of the world's leading technology companies,

在過去的30年中，臺灣已經成功地將自己定位為全球領先科技公司的委託製造商或設計製造商，

most of which come from the States, quite frankly.

很坦白的說，其中大多數的科技公司都來自美國。

Companies like Apple, Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and others.

像蘋果、惠普、微軟、谷歌、亞馬遜和其他公司。

The key major company that people talk about with Taiwan is a company called TSMC, which is a chip foundry,

說到台灣的重要關鍵企業，人們都會提到一家叫做台積電的公司，它是一家晶片代工廠。

and they make chips and parts for so many different American companies as well as other companies around the world.

他們為來自美國與世界各地的許多公司製造晶片和零件。

We don't make any of the world's most sophisticated, you know, smallest, leading-edge chips in the United States of America.

美國沒有製造任何世界上最複雜、最小的、最高端的晶片。

Somehow we've allowed ourselves to get into a position where we are utterly dependent on Taiwan for those chips.

不知為何，我們讓自己處於完全依賴台灣來提供這些晶片的位置。

And those are the very chips that you need in artificial intelligence, high-end computing, communications, military equipment.

而這些晶片正是在人工智能、高速計算、通信、軍事裝備中所需要的。

We're still seeing capital being plowed into Taiwan at really significant levels.

我們仍然看到資本大量湧入台灣。

Yes, there are tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but the global business community see Taiwan right now as an important place to deploy capital, and... and that's taking place.

是的，臺灣海峽的局勢緊張，但國際商界認為臺灣現在是一個是部署資本的重要場所，而這正在發生。

One of Xi Jinping's major goals is what is called "national rejuvenation", which he wants to achieve by 2049.

習近平的主要目標之一便是所謂的「民族復興」，他想在2049年以前達成。

And part of that national rejuvenation is bringing back to the homeland all territories that... that have not been subject to Beijing's controls.

而這種民族復興的一部分便是將所有領土，那些沒有受到北京管控的地區，帶回祖國。

Xi has bet his entire life on being able to bring back Taiwan into China's fold, and so I... I...

習近平將自己的一生都押在了讓臺灣回歸中國的行列這件事上，所以我……

I think that what they did to Hong Kong is a... is a... is a horrible omen for what's about to happen in Taiwan.

我認為他們對香港的所作所為是對於台灣也即將要面臨的可怕預兆。

Officially, Beijing has not changed its position on Taiwan.

官方表示，北京沒有改變其對台灣的立場。

They constantly say that they want to have unification with Taiwan.

他們不斷表示希望能統一臺灣。

However, we have seen President Xi Jinping and his administration, over the past couple of years, increase the military intimidation of Taiwan with, for example, flyovers.

然而，在過去的幾年中，我們已經看到習近平主席與其政府藉由像是，派遣軍機，增加了對臺灣的軍事恫嚇。

A lot of it coincides with China really feeling its oats, in military terms, because it's now about 15 years that China's been, I think, pretty clearly the world's number two military power.

軍事方面，中國的許多行為都恰恰驗證了其意識到了自己的重要性，因為在這15年裡，我想中國的軍力很明顯地是世界上前二的。

Tensions between the United States and China are now rising.

美國和中國之間的緊張關係也在升級。

At a news conference today in Tokyo, President Biden gave Beijing a stern warning.

今天在東京舉行的新聞發佈會上，拜登總統對北京發出了嚴厲的警告。

Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?

如果真正到了需要在軍事上介入以保衛台灣的地步，你是否願意？

Yes; we agree with [the] one-China policy.

是的；我們同意一中政策。

We signed on to it, and all the attendant agreements made from there.

我們簽署了其和相關協議。

That really made a lot of headlines because it seemed as though it was a breach of what has been the traditional relationship between the US and Taiwan.

這確實造成了許多頭條新聞，因為它似乎違反了一直以來美國和臺灣之間的關係。

If you're worried that China may decide strategic ambiguity means that the Americans really would sit this one out⏤'cause we didn't come to Ukraine's defense, either⏤

如果你擔心中國可能認定戰略模糊就意味著美國人真的會坐視不管── 就像我們這次也沒有前去烏克蘭協防──

you don't really want China to think that way; you want them to believe there's a high probability of a US response, a US military response.

你不會真的希望中國那麼想；你想讓他們相信美國有很高的概率會作出反應，美國會以軍事來給出回應。

When the US made the shift to recognize Beijing as China, it didn't necessarily want to be seen as walking away from its relationship with Taiwan.

當美國做出承認北京就是中國的這個轉變時，它不一定想要此舉被看作放棄與台灣間的友好關係。

The US continues to supply arms to Taiwan and continues to see Taiwan as an important economic partner.

美國繼續向臺灣提供武器，並繼續將臺灣視為一個重要的經濟夥伴。

And because of that, Beijing has been very concerned in the past couple of years that the relationship between Taiwan and the US appears to be getting closer and closer.

正因為如此，在過去的幾年裡，北京一直非常關注臺灣和美國間似乎走得越來越近這件事。

So, what we did have was, we had the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework the President launched several weeks ago in Japan,

而我們所擁有的是總統幾週前在日本所發布的印太經濟框架，

and a number of economies have signed up for that; it's an interesting framework.

一些經濟體已經簽署；這是一個有趣的框架。

Obviously, we'll have to see what... what the meat looks like on the bones.

很明顯，我們就會知道一切就緒後會是什麼模樣。

That's always where, you know, that's where... where the rubber meets the road.

而你知道的，我們也會知道這一切到底管不管用。

[There's] Definitely a fear that we potentially could get into a situation where China decides that it's best for Beijing to take Taiwan by force.

我們肯定會擔心中國認為以武力來佔領台灣是最好的決定的這種情況

And one wild card in all of this is that the power in Beijing is becoming much more centralized.

而其中一個變數是北京的權力正在變得更加集中。

I think we should be able⏤we, collectively, China, Taiwan, the United States, Japan, [and] other players⏤we should be able to avoid war.

我認為我們應該要能夠──我們，也就是中國、臺灣、美國、日本，和其他國家──我們要能夠避免戰爭。

Because we've been all talking about it long enough, preparing long enough, that everybody has to go into this thing clear-eyed about what could happen if there were a fight.

因為我們一直以來花了大量的時間與心力讓使每個人都能清楚意識到戰爭的爆發會發生什麼。