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  • >> STEVE KORNACKI, YOU DON'T

  • ACTUALLY WRITE FOR ANY

  • BULLRIDING ASSOCIATION.

  • BUT I THINK YOU SHOULD.

  • I LOVE YOUR WORK AT THE TRIPLE

  • CROWN.

  • BUT I'VE BEEN ABSOLUTELY

  • STUNNED BY JUST HOW SELF-

  • DESTRUCTIVE, IN MY OPINION, NOT

  • YOURS AS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY,

  • HAS BEEN BY THE PEOPLE WHO PUT

  • UP TO RUN STATEWIDE RACES AND

  • SWING STATES.

  • AND THERE IS NOT A STATE THAT

  • IS MORE OF A SWING STATE NOW

  • THAN ARIZONA.

  • AND MY GOD, THE PEOPLE WHO LOOK

  • TO BE LINING UP TO WIN ARE ALL

  • IN THROUGH THE TRUMP CONSPIRACY

  • THEORIES.

  • TAKE US THROUGH ALL OF THOSE

  • RACES.

  • >> TAKE US TO CRAZYTOWN.

  • >> WELL, WHAT YOU'RE OUTLINING

  • THERE IS THE DEMOCRATS' HOPE

  • HERE, IN THE FACE A CLIMATE

  • THAT OTHERWISE, IF YOU JUST

  • LOOK AT JOE BIDEN'S APPROVAL

  • RATING, STATE OF THE ECONOMY,

  • POLITICAL, IN THE HISTORY OF

  • HOW MIDTERM ELECTIONS GO FOR

  • WHITE HOUSE PARTIES, DEMOCRATS

  • ARE HOPING, WHAT YOU JUST

  • OUTLINED WILL BE A MAJOR

  • MITIGATING FACTOR, THAT WOULD

  • ALLOW THEM TO DEFY HISTORY, AND

  • TO KEEP THE SENATE.

  • LET'S FOCUS ON THE SENATE HERE

  • NOW.

  • BECAUSE RIGHT NOW.

  • IT IS 50-50 IN THE SENATE.

  • YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE WHAT

  • LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL

  • BATTLEGROUND FOR THE SENATE.

  • IS SHADED.

  • REPUBLICANS JUST NEED A NET

  • GAIN OF ONE SEAT AND THEY GET

  • CONTROL.

  • AND AGAIN, JUST GIVEN THE

  • ENVIRONMENT, EVERYTHING THEY

  • TALK ABOUT, YOU WOULD THINK,

  • LOOKING AT THIS MAP, THAT THAT

  • ONE SEAT WOULDN'T BE TOO HARD

  • TO COME BY.

  • RIGHT AWAY, YOU TAKE A LOOK

  • HERE.

  • WHAT WOULD THE TWO MOST LIKELY

  • OPTIONS BE FOR THE REPUBLICANS?

  • WELL, THE TWO DEMOCRATIC-HELD

  • SEATS THAT WERE THE CLOSEST IN

  • THE 2020 ELECTION, WERE GEORGIA

  • AND ARIZONA.

  • THEY BOTH WENT FOR BIDEN IN

  • 2020.

  • BUT REMEMBER, ABOUT 11,000

  • VOTES WAS BIDEN'S MARGIN IN

  • GEORGIA, INSIDE OF 10,000 VOTES

  • IN ARIZONA, RAZOR-THIN MARGINS

  • FOR JOE BIDEN.

  • MEANING COMING IN THE MIDTERM

  • LIKE THIS.

  • NO MARGIN FOR ERROR.

  • THE POLLING FOR REPUBLICANS HAS

  • BEEN CONCERNING SO FAR.

  • WHEN YOU LOOK AT HERSHEL WALKER

  • IN THAT SENATE RACE.

  • AGAIN, REPUBLICANS WILL TELL

  • YOU, HEY, THIS WILL END UP

  • BEING IN THEIR VIEW, IN WAVE

  • YEARS, ALL OF THE RACES TEND UP

  • BREAKING TOWARD THE OPPOSITION

  • PARTY AT THE END OF THE CYCLE,

  • HERSCHEL WALKER WILL GET CARRIED BY THE WAVE.

  • CARRIED BY THE WAVE.

  • I THINK THAT'S WHAT DEMOCRATS

  • AREDEPENDING ON.

  • POLLING SHOWS A CLEARLY

  • REPUBLICAN SENATE PRIMARY IN

  • THE SENATE TOMORROW.

  • POTENTIALLY BLAKE MASTERS IN

  • ARIZONA COULD PUT BOTH OF THOSE

  • OTHERWISE-ON-PAPER, CLEAR,

  • PICKUP OPPORTUNITIES FOR

  • REPUBLICANS AT RISK.

  • AND THEN YOU COMPOUND IT.

  • YOU WERE MENTIONING THE NAME OF

  • MEHMET OZ IN PENNSYLVANIA.

  • AGAIN, OZ, THE REPUBLICAN

  • NOMINEE IN PENNSYLVANIA.

  • POLLING HAS BEEN CONCERNING FOR

  • REPUBLICANS WHEN IT COMES TO

  • OZ.

  • WHEN IT COMES TO HIS APPROVAL,

  • FAVORABLE, UNFAVORABLE NUMBERS,

  • VERY HIGH, UNFAVORABLE NUMBERS.

  • IF YOU JUST LOOKED AT THAT MAP

  • AND YOU DIDN'T KNOW WHAT WAS

  • RUNNING IN THESE STATES, YOU

  • WOULD SAY, HEY, PENNSYLVANIA IS

  • NOW A REPUBLICAN-HELD SENATE

  • SEAT.

  • PAT TOOMEY IS NOT RUNNING.

  • MAYBE DEMOCRATS HAVE A CHANCE OF PICKING UP PENNSYLVANIA BUT

  • OF PICKING UP PENNSYLVANIA BUT

  • ALL DEMOCRATS HAVE TO DO IS WIN

  • GEORGIA OR ARIZONA AND THERE'S

  • THEIR NET WIN OF ONE.

  • ARIZONA MAY BE AS WELL.

  • YOU HAVE COLORADO ON THE MAP.

  • COLORADO IS THE KIND THAT COULD

  • COME INTO PLAY.

  • REPUBLICANS HAVE NOMINATED A

  • MUCH MORE MODERATE CANDIDATE

  • THERE.

  • BUT COLORADO IS MUCH MORE

  • DEMOCRATIC THAN ARIZONA OR

  • GEORGIA.

  • SO IT STARTS TO GET MORE

  • COMPLICATED.

  • AT LEAST FROM THIS VANTAGE

  • POINT.

  • WE'RE JUST INSIDE OF 100 DAYS

  • FROM ELECTION DAY, WHEN YOU

  • LOOK AT THE INDIVIDUAL DYNAMICS

  • IN THE SENATE RACE, YOU CAN

  • START TO SEE A SCENARIO, WHERE

  • DEMOCRATS KEEP THE SENATE.

  • WHEN YOU TAKE THE INDIVIDUAL

  • DYNAMICS OUT OF IT, AND YOU

  • JUST THINK ABOUT THE BASIC

  • INGREDIENTS OF THE MIDTERM

  • CLIMATE, YOU STILL DO SEE THE

  • MAKINGS THERE OF REPUBLICAN

  • WAVE.

  • SO TWO THINGS ARE IN CONTENTION

  • WITH EACH OTHER THERE.

  • >> STEVE, I WOULD BE THE LAST

  • TO SUGGEST THAT POLLING IN JULY

  • MAKES ANY DIFFERENCE.

  • IT DOES GIVE YOU A SNAPSHOT FOR

  • THAT TIME.

  • WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE

  • FALL.

  • I'M THINKING RIGHT NOW,

  • ESPECIALLY, OF OHIO, WHERE YOU

  • ACTUALLY HAVE TIM RYAN DOING

  • EXTREMELY WELL AGAINST JD

  • VANCE.

  • I SUSPECT THAT'S A RACE THAT IS

  • GOING TO END UP, YOU KNOW,

  • WE'RE GOING TO BE STAYING UP

  • LATE IN THE NIGHT, MOST LIKELY,

  • TO SEE WHO WINS THAT RACE.

  • BUT I JUST WANT TO CIRCLE BACK.

  • I KNOW IT'S NOT A PENNSYLVANIA

  • DAY.

  • BUT YOU JUST OUTLINED SOMETHING

  • THAT, SOME NUMBERS THAT I JUST

  • READ AND I FOUND SHOCKING.

  • I SAID, OKAY, THIS IS GOING TO

  • BE HARD FOR ANY CANDIDATE TO

  • GET AROUND.

  • DR. OZ'S NEGATIVES IN

  • PENNSYLVANIA ARE OFF THE

  • CHARTS.

  • I MEAN, I DON'T KNOW HOW ANY

  • CANDIDATE GETS AROUND THAT.