Name: 物價一直漲！為什麼食物的價格越來越貴？ (Why food is getting more expensive for everyone)
Uploaded: 2023-01-14T21:01:20.000Z
Duration: 5 min 59 s

Have you noticed that the price of your groceries has gone up?

你是否注意到食品雜貨的價格已經上漲了呢？

Bread, milk, cheese, eggs are all more expensive, and it's something we're seeing throughout most of the globe.

麵包、牛奶、起司、雞蛋都比較貴，這現象在世界各地都看得到。

那麼，價格上漲背後的原因是什麼呢？

The United Nations' Food Price Index tracks the monthly change in the price of a basket of food items.

聯合國的食品價格指數追蹤了一籃子食品價格的每月變化。

The five commodities making up this basket are cereals, vegetable oils, sugar, meats, and dairy products.

組成這個籃子的五種商品是穀物、植物油、糖、肉類和乳製品。

In March of 2022, the index recorded the highest price levels in its three-decade history.

在 2022 年 3 月，該指數記錄下三十年來歷史最高的價格。

It has since come off that high slightly, but it is still well above levels seen in previous years.

此後略有回降，但仍遠高於前幾年的價格。

The UN body's chief economist warned prices won't be going back to normal anytime soon.

聯合國機構的首席經濟學家警告說，價格不會很快恢復正常。

They will continue increasing because we will be not having the plantings⏤regular planting season for these two countries.

價格將繼續增加，因為有兩個國家不會迎來常規的栽種季節。

And that will have a significant effect in the world.

這將對世界各地產生重大影響。

The two countries he's referring to here are, unsurprisingly, Russia and Ukraine.

不出所料，他在這裡提到的兩個國家就是俄羅斯和烏克蘭。

Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and rising energy prices are the two main reasons why food is getting more costly.

俄羅斯無端入侵烏克蘭和能源價格上漲是食品越來越貴的兩個主要原因。

But why is food price inflation so widespread?

但為什麼食品價格通脹如此普遍？

Prices are really complicated; they're shaped by all sorts of things.

價格真的很複雜，它們是由各種各樣的東西形成的。

We've had the Ukraine crisis, which has really thrown the world's food system into disarray in some respects.

我們經歷了烏克蘭危機，它確實在某些方面讓世界糧食系統陷入混亂。

Ukraine is one of the bread baskets of Europe.

It's where we produce lots of our crops, and many of those crops have been unable to... to leave the country.

該國生產大量農作物，但現在有許多農作物無法從這個國家出口。

And farmers right now in Ukraine are meant to be planting the next season's crops, and they haven't been able to, so we can expect these issues to... to continue as well.

且烏克蘭的農民現在本應種植下一季的作物，但他們沒辦法做到，因此我們可以預期這些問題將繼續存在。

烏克蘭以其肥沃的土壤而聞名。

It is a top exporter of sunflower oil, corn, and grains.

它是葵花籽油、玉米和穀物的大量出口國。

Ukraine and Russia combined produce more than a quarter of the global wheat supply.

烏克蘭和俄羅斯生產的小麥加起來佔全球小麥供應的四分之一以上。

So, you can understand how disruptions in these markets can cause massive shocks to our global food supply.

你可以了解這些市場的中斷如何對我們的全球食品供應造成巨大衝擊。

For sure, it is becoming a global problem.

可以肯定的是，這正在成為一個全球性問題。

We are talking of around 50 countries that have more than 30% of their imports dependent from Russian Federation and Ukraine.

大約 50 個國家，其 30% 以上的進口依賴於俄羅斯聯邦和烏克蘭。

And of those, 20 countries have 50% of the exports depending on Ukraine.

而在這些國家中，有 20 個國家的 50% 的出口依賴烏克蘭。

For instance, look at some of the countries that are highly dependent on Russia and Ukraine for wheat imports.

例如，看看一些高度依賴俄羅斯和烏克蘭小麥進口的國家。

Eritrea, Armenia, Mongolia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Somalia get more than 90% of their wheat imports from the two countries alone.

厄利垂亞、亞美尼亞、蒙古、亞塞拜然、喬治亞和索馬利亞超國 90% 的小麥進口只有來自這兩個國家。

Distressingly, there is a growing number of analysts, academics and policymakers saying that Russia is intentionally weaponizing food supplies as a part of Vladimir Putin's war strategy.

令人沮喪的是，越來越多的分析人士、學者和政策制定者表示，俄羅斯有意將糧食供應武器化，作為弗拉迪米爾·普丁戰爭戰略的一部分。

The fear is that much of the developing world will starve as a result.

令人擔憂的是，許多發展中國家將因此挨餓。

As if that weren't enough to contend with, energy prices were already high before the war.

似乎這還不夠糟的話，能源價格在戰前就已經很高了。

And that has trickled down to your food bill.

而這已經反映到你的食物帳單上了。

We've seen rising gas prices, and that's increased the cost of fertilizers.

我們看到汽油價格上漲，增加了化肥的成本。

And many farmers are reliant on these fertilizers, these industrially produced fertilizers, which rely on natural gas for their manufacture.

許多農民依賴這些化肥，這些工業化生產的化肥，它們的生產依賴於天然氣。

Natural gas, which is used as a raw material and fuel for making nitrogen fertilizers, accounts for about 80% of the production cost.

天然氣作為製造氮肥的原料和燃料，約占生產成本的 80%。

With natural gas prices in Europe soaring almost 300% over the last 12 months, the cost of fertilizers has naturally gone up too.

隨著歐洲天然氣價格在過去 12 個月中飆升近 300%，化肥的成本自然也上漲了。

Major producers such as China and Russia have also put export bans in place to protect their domestic markets.

中國和俄羅斯等主要生產國也實施了出口禁令，以保護國內市場。

This is adding to the upheaval, affecting the type of crops being planted and the planting season.

這加劇了動盪，影響了種植作物的類型和種植季節。

Some crops like wheat, rice and corn, for example, are highly reliant on fertilizers.

例如，小麥、稻米和玉米等一些作物高度依賴化肥。

In addition, the demand for alternatives to fossil fuels has led to the growth of biofuels such as vegetable oils like palm and rapeseed oil.

此外，對化石燃料替代品的需求導致了生物燃料的增長，例如棕櫚油和菜籽油等植物油。

As more farmers grow these cash crops, this drives up the prices for other crops competing for a limited amount of land.

隨著越來越多的農民種植這些經濟作物，這推高了其他作物爭奪有限土地的價格。

And with inflation going through the roof, some governments have started to impose restrictions on the exports of their energy crops too.

隨著通貨膨脹率飆升，一些政府也開始對其能源作物的出口施加限制。

Towards the end of April, Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of vegetable oil, imposed a three-week ban on the international sales of its palm oil.

4 月底，全球最大的植物油出口國印尼對其棕櫚油的國際銷售實施了為期三週的禁令。

Meanwhile, India also decided to ban exports of wheat, which, you may remember, is a fertilizer-intensive crop.

與此同時，印度還決定禁止小麥出口，你可能記得，小麥是一種肥料密集型作物。

Europe's trade chief says these decisions only make the situation worse.

歐洲貿易負責人表示，這些決定只會讓情況變得更糟。

Countries are starting to take export restrictive measures, and we think that is tendency can actually only aggravate a problem.

各國開始採取出口限制措施，我們認為這種趨勢實際上只會加劇問題。

Financial services company Nomura warned several major economies will fall into a recession next year.

金融服務公司野村證券警告說，幾個主要經濟體明年將陷入經濟衰退。

You could see recessions in certain countries more likely than others — for example, Europe.

你可能會看到某些國家比其他國家更有可能陷入經濟衰退，例如歐洲。

Europe spends a lot more money on food and fuel relative to GDP than, for example, the US or the UK.

相對於 GDP，歐洲在食品和燃料上的支出比美國或英國等國家多得多。

So it could be that that has a more direct and larger impact on people's ability to spend.

因此，這可能會對人們的消費能力產生更直接、更大的影響。

Let's step back and explain why this increase in food prices is a problem.

我們退一步解釋為什麼食品價格上漲是一個問題。

So it's a problem because it limits the amount of disposable income that people have to spend on other items.

這是一個問題是因為它限制了人們必須花在其他項目上的可支配收入的數量。

If you think about the people who are affected the most, it tends to be the poor because they have a much greater spend on those items relative to their total spending.

受影響最大的人往往是窮人，因為相對於他們的總支出，他們在這些項目上的支出要多得多。

So it could be really constraining for those households in particular, but for the economy as a whole.

因此，這可能對這些家庭尤其是造成了限制，還有對整個經濟而言。