- are worried about the possibility of a draft should things escalate to a global scale.

- 他們擔心，如果事情升級到全球範圍，可能會出現草案。

If you’re a nurse, resident, doctor, or another healthcare worker, should you be worried?

如果你是一名護士、住院醫師、醫生或其他醫療工作者，你應該擔心嗎？

How likely is a medical draft?

醫療徵兵的可能性有多大？

And if one were to occur, what would it look like?

如果發生這種情況，會是什麼樣子呢？

Let’s talk about it.

讓我們來談談。

Dr. Jubbal, MedSchoolInsiders.com.

Jubbal博士，MedSchoolInsiders.com。

As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to unfold, many are fearful that

隨著俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的衝突繼續展開，許多人擔心

the situation will escalate into a multinational conflict.

局勢將升級為一場多國衝突。

Ukraine borders several NATO allies including Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania.

烏克蘭與幾個北約盟國接壤，包括波蘭、斯洛伐克、匈牙利和羅馬尼亞。

If Russia were to engage even one of these countries, then the US, France, Germany, UK,

如果俄羅斯與其中哪怕一個國家交戰，那麼美國、法國、德國、英國。

and the rest of the NATO allies would be forced to respond.

而北約的其他盟國將被迫作出反應。

The implications of such a global war could be catastrophic given the prevalence of nuclear

鑑於核武器的普遍存在，這樣一場全球戰爭的影響可能是災難性的。

weapons.

武器。

The United States and Russia possess a combined total of over 13,000 nuclear warheads - which

美國和俄羅斯總共擁有超過13,000枚核彈頭--其中

is 90% of the estimated global inventory.

是估計全球庫存的90%。

Just one of these weapons has the potential to destroy a large city and kill millions

這些武器只要有一件就有可能摧毀一個大城市並殺死數百萬人

of people.

的人。

The use of tens or hundreds of nuclear weapons has the potential to disrupt the global climate

使用幾十或幾百枚核武器有可能破壞全球氣候

— the consequences of which would be immeasurable.

- 其後果將是不可估量的。

As such, many are fearful that the situation in Ukraine has the potential to start a much

是以，許多人擔心，烏克蘭的局勢有可能引發一場更嚴重的危機。

larger conflict and involve many more countries.

更大的衝突和涉及更多的國家。

Today we’re going to discuss the history of the draft, what a medical draft would look

今天我們要討論的是草案的歷史，醫療草案會是什麼樣子？

like, and how likely it is to happen.

像，以及它發生的可能性有多大。

We’ll focus primarily on the US but stick around to the end because we’ll also cover

我們將主要關注美國，但堅持到最後，因為我們還將涵蓋

the United Kingdom, Canada, and India.

英國、加拿大和印度。

Conscription, more commonly known as “the draft,” is the mandatory enrollment of individuals

徵兵，通常被稱為 "徵兵"，是對個人的強制招募。

into the armed service.

進入武裝服務。

There have been several instances throughout American history where drafts have been used

在美國曆史上，曾有過幾次使用草案的情況

including the Civil War, World War I, World War II, and more recently, the Vietnam War.

包括南北戰爭、第一次世界大戰、第二次世界大戰以及最近的越南戰爭。

The last draft in the US occurred in 1973 and the military has been voluntary enlistment

美國最後一次徵兵發生在1973年，軍隊一直是自願入伍。

ever since.

自此以後。

That being said, the US government has continued to collect information on civilians who are

儘管如此，美國政府仍在繼續收集有關平民的資訊，這些人是

eligible to serve should the need arise.

如果有需要，有資格服務。

Today, every male between the ages of 18 and 25 is required to register for the Selective

今天，每個18至25歲的男性都必須登記參加 "選擇 "計劃。

Service System.

服務系統。

This creates a large database of individuals who can be called upon to serve in the event

這就建立了一個龐大的個人數據庫，可以在事件中被調用服務。

of a national emergency.

國家緊急情況。

If you are a male living in the United States, you were probably already aware of this as

如果你是生活在美國的男性，你可能已經意識到了這一點，因為

you likely registered for Selective Services at the age of 18.

你可能在18歲時登記了選擇性服務。

What many people aren’t aware of, however, is that the US has standby plans developed

然而，許多人不知道的是，美國有制定的備用計劃

by the Selective Service System to draft doctors, nurses, and other medical technicians into

由選拔服務系統徵召醫生、護士和其他醫療技術人員加入。

the military in the event of a national crisis.

在發生國家危機的情況下，軍方也會參與。

It is called the Health Care Personnel Delivery System, or HCPDS for short.

它被稱為衛生保健人員交付系統，或簡稱HCPDS。

In previous wars, including WWII and the Vietnam war, doctors have been considered strategic

在以前的戰爭中，包括二戰和越南戰爭，醫生被認為是戰略性的。

assets and had to participate in separate drafts - often with higher rates of selection.

資產，不得不參加單獨的草案--往往有更高的選擇率。

The HCPDS was designed in 1986 as a way to more quickly mobilize specialized healthcare

HCPDS設計於1986年，是一種更迅速地調動專業醫療保健的方式。

personnel in the event that the military’s existing medical capabilities are insufficient

在軍隊現有的醫療能力不足的情況下，可以為人員提供幫助。

and there is a shortage of volunteers.

並且缺乏志願者。

It was designed to be implemented in connection with a national mobilization and requires

它的設計是與全國性的動員結合起來實施的，需要

approval from both Congress and the President to enact.

國會和總統都準許頒佈。

If implemented, this would allow healthcare professionals between the ages of 20 and 45

如果實施，這將允許20至45歲的醫療保健專業人員

to be drafted into the military - including women, unless otherwise directed by Congress

被徵召入伍 - 包括婦女，除非國會另有訓示

or the President.

或總統。

In fact, some argue that it is very likely that women would be included in a medical

事實上，有些人認為，婦女很有可能被納入到一個醫療

draft given it would be difficult to get enough professionals within certain specialties without

考慮到在某些專業領域，如果沒有足夠的專業人員，就很難獲得足夠的資金。

them.

他們。

So even if you are outside of the age or gender requirements for a general draft through Selective

是以，即使你不在通過選擇性徵兵的年齡或性別要求範圍內，你也可以通過選擇性徵兵進行徵兵。

Services, you still may be eligible for recruitment in a medical draft should the need ever arise.

服務，如果有需要的話，你仍然有資格被徵入醫療隊。

If the HCPDS were enacted, the Selective Service System notes that they would be able to begin

如果HCPDS被頒佈，選擇服務系統指出，他們將能夠開始

mass registration of healthcare workers across over 60 medical and related specialties in

對60多個醫療和相關專業的醫療工作者進行大規模註冊

as little as 2 weeks.

只要2個星期就可以了。

Since draftees would already be trained professionals, the training process would also be fairly

由於被徵召者已經是訓練有素的專業人員，培訓過程也會相當順利。

quick.

快速。

If you’re a healthcare worker, aged 20 through 45, and Congress authorizes a medical draft,

如果你是一名醫療工作者，年齡在20歲到45歲之間，並且國會授權進行醫療徵兵。

you could be enlisted in a matter of a few months.

你可以在幾個月內被徵召入伍。

So we know these standby plans exist, but how likely is the US government to actually

是以，我們知道這些備用計劃的存在，但美國政府實際上有多大可能

enact a medical draft?

頒佈一個醫療草案？

To start, there would have to be a sufficient national emergency to warrant a medical draft.

首先，必須有足夠的國家緊急狀況來證明有必要進行醫療招募。

At the time of recording this video, the White House has made it clear that it is not interested

在錄製這段視頻時，白宮已明確表示，它不感興趣

in directly engaging with the Russian military.

在與俄羅斯軍隊直接接觸中。

Additionally, the approach by NATO at this time has been to influence the success of

此外，北約此時的做法是影響了中國的成功。

Ukraine by providing support instead of getting directly involved.

烏克蘭通過提供支持而不是直接參與。

But even in the event that the US were to become involved in the conflict, there is

但即使是在美國捲入衝突的情況下，也會有

no guarantee that their involvement would warrant the use of a draft - medical or otherwise.

不保證他們的參與將保證使用草案--醫療或其他方面。

We can talk hypotheticals all we want, but nobody can predict for certain how this situation

我們可以隨心所欲地談論假設，但沒有人可以肯定地預測這種情況如何

will pan out.

將會有結果。

As it stands, however, most Americans are strongly opposed to a military draft - nearly

然而，就目前的情況來看，大多數美國人都強烈反對徵兵--幾乎所有的美國人都反對徵兵。

80% according to a 2016 poll by Cornell University.

根據康奈爾大學2016年的一項民意調查，80%。

To no surprise, most physicians and healthcare workers are also strongly opposed to a medical

毫不奇怪，大多數醫生和醫護人員也都強烈反對建立醫療機構。

draft.

草案。

When drafted, the needs of the military dictate when and where you are deployed.

當被徵召時，軍隊的需要決定了你被部署的時間和地點。

You are sent where the military determines you are needed.

你被派往軍隊認為需要你的地方。

In addition, most physicians have been trained and equipped to deal with civilian medical

此外，大多數醫生都接受過培訓，並有能力處理民用醫療問題。

issues, not battlefield casualties.

問題，而不是戰場上的傷亡。

As such, many see engaging in war and militarism as contradictory to the Hippocratic oath they

是以，許多人認為參與戰爭和軍國主義是與他們的希波克拉底誓言相矛盾的。

took when they became a doctor.

當他們成為一名醫生時，他們採取了。

Although the idea of a medical draft is wildly unpopular, the fact is that the military needs

雖然醫療徵兵的想法是非常不受歡迎的，但事實是軍隊需要

doctors during times of crisis and we are already experiencing significant shortages

在危機時期，我們已經遇到了嚴重的醫生短缺問題。

in military physicians.

在軍醫方面。

A report from the Government Accountability Office warned that the Department of Defense

政府問責局的一份報告警告說，國防部

is experiencing gaps between funded positions for military physicians and the number of

在資助的軍醫職位和軍醫數量之間存在著差距。

physicians filling those positions by the end of the year - including “persistent

在今年年底前填補這些職位的醫生 - 包括 "持續的

gaps in specialties identified as critically short wartime specialties.”

被確定為戰時嚴重短缺的專業的差距"。

They attributed these shortages to difficulty attracting and retaining military physicians

他們將這些短缺歸因於難以吸引和留住軍醫。

due to national shortages and competition with the private sector.

由於全國性的短缺和與私營部門的競爭。

They conclude that “until the DoD is able to alleviate gaps in critical specialties,

他們的結論是："在國防部能夠緩解關鍵專業的差距之前。

it may be hindered in its ability to provide medical support for its service members during

它的能力可能會受到阻礙，無法為其成員提供醫療支持。

wartime.”

戰時"。

Another 2018 report from the Inspector General concluded that the military health system

監察長2018年的另一份報告認為，軍事衛生系統

lacks the manpower to even handle the routine health needs of service members during normal

在正常情況下，缺乏人力來處理服役人員的常規健康需求。

conditions.

條件。

At one sampled Air Force facility, there was only one provider for every 1,600 patients.

在一個被抽查的空軍設施中，每1600名病人只有一個醫療服務提供者。

This far exceeds the recommended regulation of 1,250 patients per provider which is already

這遠遠超過了建議的每個醫療機構1250名病人的規定，而這一規定已經

considered a heavy caseload.

被認為是一個沉重的案件量。

We’ve already seen glimpses of these shortages during the coronavirus pandemic.

在冠狀病毒大流行期間，我們已經看到了這些短缺的影子。

To address the needs of COVID patients, the Army had to reach out to retired military

為了滿足COVID患者的需求，軍隊不得不向退役軍人伸出援手。

doctors and medics to return to service as a part of a voluntary recall.

作為自願召回的一部分，醫生和醫務人員將重返崗位。

Fortunately, over 25,000 volunteers stepped forward to assist; however, in the event of

幸運的是，超過25,000名志願者挺身而出提供援助；然而，在發生

a major crisis, this would likely be far from enough.

在重大危機中，這很可能是遠遠不夠的。

Given existing shortages, many argue that a medical draft would be more likely to occur

鑑於現有的短缺情況，許多人認為，醫療徵兵更有可能發生

than a general draft in the event of a crisis as the military would need individuals with

在發生危機的情況下，比起一般的徵兵，軍方需要的是有能力的人。

specialized skills far sooner than they would need a general draft of young men.

他們需要的專業技能遠比他們需要的一般青年男子徵兵要早。

Up until this point, we’ve focused mainly on the United States; however, conscription

到目前為止，我們主要關注的是美國；然而，徵兵制

- healthcare workers or otherwise - is not unique to the US.

- 醫護人員或其他方面的問題--並不是美國獨有的。

According to the Pew Research Center, the US is one of 23 countries where the military

根據皮尤研究中心的數據，美國是23個國家之一，其中軍隊

draft is authorized but not currently implemented.

草案已獲授權，但目前尚未實施。

There are another 60 countries with some form of active draft program and the remaining

另有60個國家有某種形式的現行草案計劃，其餘的是

108 countries have no laws authorizing conscription.

108個國家沒有授權徵兵的法律。

Let’s cover the likelihood of a draft in a few other countries.

讓我們來談談其他幾個國家徵兵的可能性。

The United Kingdom has implemented military drafts only twice during modern times - once

近代以來，英國只實施過兩次軍事徵兵--一次是

during World War I and again during World War II.

在第一次世界大戰期間，以及在第二次世界大戰期間再次。

At that time, police officers, medical personnel, prison workers, students, government employees,

當時，警察、醫務人員、監獄工作人員、學生、政府僱員。

and ministers were exempt from the draft.

和部長們被免於徵兵。

After World War II, the United Kingdom implemented the National Service Act, which required all

第二次世界大戰後，英國實施了《國民服務法》，要求所有

physically fit males between the ages of 17 and 21 to serve in one of the armed forces

年齡在17至21歲之間、身體健康的男性在某一武裝部隊中服役

for an 18-month period and remain on the reserve list for an additional four years.

為期18個月，並在儲備名單上再保留4年。

The service requirement was later increased from 18 months to 2 years; however, National

後來，服務要求從18個月增加到2年；但是，國家

Service ended in 1960 with the last national servicemen being discharged in 1963.

服務於1960年結束，最後一批國家軍人於1963年退役。

Since then, there has been no conscription legislation in the UK and, unlike the US with

從那時起，英國就沒有徵兵立法，而且，與美國不同的是，美國有

the Selective Service System, there are no remnants of the draft.

在選擇服務系統中，沒有徵兵的殘餘。

That being said, Parliament could theoretically pass a law reestablishing it during a time

儘管如此，議會理論上可以通過一項法律，在一個時期內重新建立它。

of national crisis; however, many believe this is unlikely.

然而，許多人認為這是不可能的。

Similar to the UK, the Canadian government has only enacted military drafts twice in

與英國類似，加拿大政府在過去一年中只頒佈了兩次軍事徵兵令。

its history - again, during WWI and WWII.

它的歷史--還是在一戰和二戰期間。

Both instances created sharp divisions between English Canadians, who generally supported

這兩種情況在英裔加拿大人之間造成了尖銳的分歧，他們普遍支持

the practice, and French Canadians, who generally did not.

而法裔加拿大人則一般不這樣做。

The Canadian armed forces have been voluntary since then and there has been no conscription

從那時起，加拿大的武裝部隊一直是自願的，沒有徵兵。

legislation since WWII.

二戰以來的立法。

Given the deep divisions that conscription created and the unease that remains surrounding

鑑於徵兵制造成的深刻分歧以及圍繞著徵兵制仍然存在的不安。

the practice, it is thought to be unlikely that Canada would reintroduce the draft.

在這種情況下，人們認為加拿大不太可能重新提出該草案。

Unlike the UK and Canada, India has never utilized a military draft.

與英國和加拿大不同，印度從未使用過徵兵制度。

Throughout its history, the Indian army has always been voluntary - even during World

縱觀其歷史，印度軍隊一直是自願的--甚至在世界範圍內也是如此。

Wars I and II.

第一和第二場戰爭。

Despite this, India has the second-largest army in the world in terms of active-duty

儘管如此，印度擁有世界上現役第二大的軍隊。

military personnel - positioning itself just between the United States in third and China

軍事人員--將自己定位在第三國的美國和中國之間。

in first.

在第一。

As such, it is thought to be unlikely that India would ever implement a military draft.

是以，人們認為印度不太可能實施軍事徵兵。

This is a crazy time in the world right now.

現在是世界上的一個瘋狂時期。

Our thoughts are with those in Ukraine.

我們向烏克蘭的人們表示慰問。

Although there is a lot of uncertainty and many are fearful about how this can unfold,

雖然有很多不確定因素，許多人對這一情況如何展開感到恐懼。

it is best not to dwell on situations that may or may not occur.

最好不要糾結於可能發生或可能不發生的情況。

Although it is interesting to explore hypotheticals from time to time, it is important to remember

儘管不時地探索假設是有趣的，但重要的是要記住

that these are not certainties.

這些都是不確定的。

You can spend your time and energy worrying about something that may happen only for that

你可以把你的時間和精力花在擔心可能發生的事情上，只為那件

situation to never come true.

情況永遠不會成為現實。

As the stoic philosopher Seneca put it, “we suffer more often in imagination than in reality.”

正如斯多葛哲學家塞涅卡所說，"我們在想象中比在現實中更經常遭受痛苦"。

Thank you all so much for watching.

非常感謝大家的觀看。

Slava Ukraini.

斯拉瓦-烏克雷尼。

If you enjoyed this video, be sure to leave a like, subscribe, and share it.

如果你喜歡這個視頻，請務必留下喜歡、訂閱和分享。

Much love, and I’ll see you in that next one.

非常愛你，我們在下一場比賽中見。