While the rest of the world battled wave after wave of coronavirus, China's sealed borders,

當世界其他地區與一波又一波的冠狀病毒作鬥爭時，中國的邊界被封鎖了。

rigorous testing and strict quarantine policies enabled life to proceed largely as normal.

嚴格的測試和嚴格的檢疫政策使生活基本正常進行。

However, the emergence of the highly contagious omicron variant and its sub-strains have the

然而，高度傳染性的Omicron變體及其亞株的出現，使其具有

potential to change all that.

有可能改變這一切。

So how long can China maintain its strict Covid policies?

是以，中國能夠維持其嚴格的Covid政策多久？

And what matters most to the Chinese government?

而對中國政府來說，什麼是最重要的？

China has gone to great lengths to keep Covid-19 at bay.

中國為阻止Covid-19的出現付出了巨大努力。

After the original strain of the virus ripped through Wuhan at the end of 2019,

在2019年底原始病毒株撕裂了武漢之後。

the national government adopted one of the world's strictest approaches to tackling the pandemic.

國家政府採取了世界上最嚴格的方法之一來應對該大流行病。

Until recently, this strategy was extremely successful:

直到最近，這一戰略都非常成功。

it kept case numbers down and national pride up.

它使案件數量減少，民族自豪感提高。

The success of that strategy in sustaining extremely low levels of infection in comparison

該戰略成功地維持了極低的感染水準，相比之下

to the failure of the liberal democracies,

導致自由民主國家的失敗。

including the United States, in handling the Covid outbreaks,

包括美國在內，在處理Covid疫情的過程中。

that convinced the central leaders that this is not just a success of the zero-Covid strategy.

這使中央領導人相信，這不僅僅是零科維德戰略的成功。

It could be used to showcase the superiority of the Chinese political system.

它可以被用來展示中國政治制度的優越性。

So in a way, it's sort of like a projection of China's soft power.

所以在某種程度上，這有點像中國軟實力的投射。

But in March of 2022, China faced a major outbreak in its largest city Shanghai, a financial

但在2022年3月，中國最大的城市上海面臨著一場重大的疫情爆發，上海是一個金融城市。

hub with a population of 26 million people.

擁有2600萬人口的樞紐。

Covid-19 cases skyrocketed, and the city was locked down in April.

Covid-19病例激增，該市在4月被封鎖。

Shanghai's outbreak is the biggest since Wuhan 2020.

上海的疫情是自2020年武漢以來最大的一次。

So just in terms of case numbers, it by far exceeds anything we've seen since then.

是以，僅就案件數量而言，它遠遠超過了我們自那時以來看到的任何東西。

Shanghai is China's most international city.

上海是中國最國際化的城市。

It's a hub of manufacturing, so the impact on global supply chains could be quite substantial.

它是一個製造業的中心，所以對全球供應鏈的影響可能是相當大的。

CNBC reporter Evelyn Cheng covered the outbreak from Beijing.

CNBC記者Evelyn Cheng在北京報道了這次爆發。

Shanghai is usually upheld as one of the most organized places in China.

上海通常被認為是中國最有組織的地方之一。

The level of disorganization, the lack of preparedness,

混亂的程度，缺乏準備的情況。

and even how they're trying to organize distribution of vegetables, this is really

甚至他們如何努力組織蔬菜的分配，這真是

uncharacteristic of Shanghai.

不符合上海的特點。

In Shanghai, most people are being sent to these quarantine centers,

在上海，大多數人被送到這些檢疫中心。

where reports say it's very cold, or there's no showers and very primitive.

報告說那裡非常冷，或者沒有淋浴，非常原始。

The lockdown forced many factories to shut, while some opted to stay open by using a “closed-loop system.”

封鎖迫使許多工廠關閉，而一些工廠選擇通過使用 "閉環系統 "保持營業。

This is essentially a bubble, like the ones China used to host the Winter Olympics in Beijing.

這基本上是一個保麗龍，就像中國在北京舉辦冬奧會時所用的保麗龍。

Workers are tested frequently and can't leave the area unless there is an emergency.

工人們經常接受測試，除非有緊急情況，否則不能離開該地區。

For factory workers, that meant sleeping on the factory floor.

對於工廠工人來說，這意味著睡在工廠的地板上。

A lot of the factories are located in industrial parks, in sort of the suburban parts of major cities.

很多工廠都位於工業園區，位於大城市的郊區部分。

So, if you have all your workers on-site, and that site is basically cut off from the

是以，如果你的所有工人都在現場，而那個地方基本上與外界隔絕了

neighboring towns, then you can keep on producing on that site.

鄰近的城鎮，那麼你就可以繼續在那個地方生產。

Otherwise, Shanghai residents were confined to their homes.

否則，上海居民被限制在他們的家中。

Struggling to get food and other basic items due to logistics and supply chain issues,

由於物流和供應鏈問題，難以獲得食物和其他基本物品。

residents turned to 'Group Buying.'

居民轉向'團購'。

This is when a group of people get together, often in the same residential compound, to

這是指一群人聚集在一起，往往是在同一個住宅大院裡，以

buy groceries and other daily essentials in bulk.

大量購買食品雜貨和其他日常必需品。

So, the world began to wonder – could the outbreak in Shanghai force the end of China's no-tolerance policy?

是以，世界開始懷疑--上海的爆發能否迫使中國的不容忍政策結束？

While the language has changed somewhat with talk of a “dynamic zero-covid” approach,

雖然語言已經發生了一些變化，談到了 "動態零維 "方法。

analysts tell me there has been no fundamental change in strategy.

分析師告訴我，戰略上沒有根本性的改變。

They are fundamentally the same.

它們在本質上是一樣的。

We thought that this is going to signal there's some significant relaxation of this zero-Covid strategy,

我們認為，這將預示著這種零科維德戰略有一些明顯的放鬆。

turned out we were wrong.

事實證明，我們錯了。

So why is China so reluctant to abandon its policy?

那麼，為什麼中國如此不願意放棄其政策？

Well, easing restrictions bears major risks.

那麼，放寬限制會帶來重大風險。

Leadership in Beijing is bent on avoiding a situation like the one in Hong Kong,

北京的領導層執意要避免出現類似香港的情況。

where the omicron variant ripped through the densely populated financial center

在那裡，Omicron變體撕開了人口稠密的金融中心

and overwhelmed the healthcare system.

並使醫療保健系統不堪重負。

Hong Kong was absolutely a cautionary tale for the mainland leadership about worst-case

香港絕對是大陸領導層在最壞情況下的一個警示。

scenarios for what an outbreak would look like on the mainland.

大陸上爆發的情況會是怎樣的。

When hospitals become overloaded, it can create quite ugly scenes, quite chaotic scenes,

當醫院變得超負荷時，會造成相當醜陋的場面，相當混亂的場面。

that mobilize public anger and undermine confidence in the government.

激發公眾的憤怒，破壞對政府的信心。

Thanks in part to China's zero-tolerance policy, the country is now uniquely vulnerable to the virus.

部分歸功於中國的零容忍政策，中國現在是唯一容易受到該病毒影響的國家。

Because fewer people were exposed to Covid, China's population boasts lower immunity

由於接觸科維德的人較少，中國的人口擁有較低的免疫力。

from natural infection than other parts of the world.

與世界其他地區相比，他們更容易受到自然感染。

On top of that, China has relied on homegrown vaccines from Sinopharm and Sinovac,

除此之外，中國還依賴國藥集團和國藥集團的國產疫苗。

which offer little protection against infection from Omicron.

這對防止來自Omicron的感染沒有提供什麼保護。

And the vaccination rate among China's elderly population is worryingly low.

而中國老年人口的疫苗接種率之低令人擔憂。

The concern is that if China opens up, the healthcare system will be overwhelmed by a surge in cases,

人們擔心的是，如果中國開放，醫療系統將被激增的病例所淹沒。

and that will be dangerous politically and epidemiologically.

而這在政治上和流行病學上都將是危險的。

Even though China's existing vaccines provide better protection against severe disease;

儘管中國現有的疫苗對嚴重疾病提供了更好的保護。

the sheer scale of China's population means thousands would likely require hospitalization.

中國的人口規模之大，意味著成千上萬的人可能需要住院治療。

Its public health infrastructure and ICU capacity remain inadequate to respond to a surge in cases too.

其公共衛生基礎設施和ICU的能力也仍然不足以應對激增的病例。

Its number of intensive care beds per 100,000 people is just a fraction of other major economies.

其每10萬人中的重症監護病床數量只是其他主要經濟體的一小部分。

That's even worse in rural areas.

這在農村地區甚至更糟糕。

Doctors also lack the practical experience that Western peers have after two years of

醫生們也缺乏西方同行兩年後的實踐經驗。

treating patients with the virus.

治療感染病毒的病人。

China could focus on a new vaccination campaign to boost immunity.

中國可以把重點放在新的疫苗接種活動上，以提高免疫力。

Chinese companies are racing to develop their own mRNA vaccine, but it remains to be seen

中國公司正競相開發自己的mRNA疫苗，但仍有待觀察

when and if a new shot will be ready.

何時以及是否會有新的鏡頭準備好。

Alternatively, China could look to deploy the mRNA vaccines used in the West.

另外，中國可以尋求部署在西方國家使用的mRNA疫苗。

At this point, I think it's quite clear that politics and nationalism have played

在這一點上，我認為很清楚的是，政治和民族主義已經發揮了作用。

a role in the Chinese government's approval of foreign vaccines.

在中國政府準許外國疫苗的過程中發揮了作用。

And it looks unlikely they'll grant approval for those vaccines, at least until a new Chinese

而且看起來他們不太可能準許這些疫苗，至少在一個新的中國人之前。

homegrown vaccine is on the market.

國產疫苗已經上市。

But China's commitment to zero-Covid has economic costs.

但中國對零科維德的承諾有經濟成本。

Its people are buying less, supply chains have been disrupted, and investors are leaving

它的人民正在減少購買，供應鏈已被破壞，投資者正在離開

the Chinese market in droves.

蜂擁而至的中國市場。

The issue of the pandemic response has been so politicized.

大流行病應對問題已被如此政治化。

When it's used to showcase the superiority of the Chinese political system.

當它被用來展示中國政治制度的優越性時。

When it's framed as a competition between liberal democracy and an authoritarian system.

當它被設定為自由民主和專制制度之間的競爭時。

These political stakes become so high; the economic costs become secondary.

這些政治利害關係變得如此之高；經濟成本變得次要。

The idea of avoiding scenes of chaos is a key consideration for the leadership, perhaps

避免混亂場面的想法是領導層的一個重要考慮，也許

even more so than reducing case numbers or ensuring no one dies.

甚至比減少病例數或確保沒有人死亡更重要。

And I think that's why the zero covid policy remains in effect.

我認為這就是為什麼零關稅政策仍然有效的原因。

Most experts agree that the real milestone to watch is the 20th National Congress of

大多數專家同意，真正值得關注的里程碑是第二十次全國代表大會。

the Chinese Communist Party, due to take place at the end of 2022.

中國共產黨將於2022年年底舉行的會議。

Changing policy at this point would inject potential instability in the months leading

在這個時候改變政策，會在接下來的幾個月裡注入潛在的不穩定性。

up to this party congress.

到這次黨代會為止。

The party is preparing for the leadership transition that is expected to occur in the 20th party congress.

該黨正在為預計將在第20屆黨代會上發生的領導層過渡做準備。

They don't want any surprise now that would derail the transition that undermines President Xi's leadership.

他們不希望現在出現任何意外，破壞習主席的領導力的過渡期，使之脫軌。

As for the Chinese public, they've been mostly supportive of Beijing's zero-tolerance approach.

至於中國公眾，他們大多支持中國政府的零容忍做法。

It was a source of national pride for the Chinese people that case numbers have been

這是中國人民的民族自豪感的來源，案件的數量一直是

low throughout the last two years

在過去兩年中一直處於低位

in a period when Covid has ravaged much of the rest of the world.

在這個時期，科維德已經蹂躪了世界上大部分地區。

It was also advantageous from an economic perspective because

從經濟角度來看，這也是有利的，因為

China was able to maintain production and, in some cases,

中國能夠維持生產，在某些情況下。

gain export market share while other countries suffered shutdowns.

獲得出口市場份額，而其他國家則遭遇停產。

But could food shortages, a struggling health system and controversial policies, like separating

但是，糧食短缺、舉步維艱的衛生系統和有爭議的政策（如分離）會不會影響他們的生活？

Covid positive children from their parents in Shanghai, change that?

從上海的父母那裡收養陽性兒童，改變這種情況？

Despite all this discontent, dissatisfaction on the zero COVID strategy, the overall public

儘管有這些不滿，對零COVID戰略的不滿，總體上公眾

support for the strategy remains strong.

對該戰略的支持仍然強勁。

Especially in smaller Chinese cities or in the countryside, where people have only limited

特別是在中國的小城市或農村，人們只有有限的

access to alternative information.

獲得替代資訊。

There's a sense that public opinion may be shifting.

有一種感覺，公眾輿論可能正在發生轉變。

And the hardships we've seen in Shanghai,

還有我們在上海看到的艱難困苦。

whether it's people having trouble getting groceries or

無論是人們在獲得雜貨方面遇到困難還是

whether it's the extreme lack of freedoms that people are suffering now,

是否是人們現在所遭受的極端缺乏自由的情況。

entering, in some cases, more than 20 days in complete lockdown in Shanghai.

進入，在某些情況下，在上海被完全封鎖超過20天。

It's wearing on people's nerves.

這對人們的神經有很大的影響。

The official figures show that deaths have been very, very low in Shanghai.

官方數據顯示，上海的死亡人數已經非常非常少。

Although there is reason to distrust the official figures –

儘管有理由不相信官方數字--

but I think it still gives a broad indication of the seriousness.

但我認為這仍然能大致說明問題的嚴重性。