but the trend is generally upward.

但趨勢總體上是向上的。

It doesn't matter at what point of the market you have invested, in the long run, you have

不管你在市場的哪個點上投資，從長遠來看，你有

multiplied your investment.

你的投資翻了幾番。

Even if you have invested at the peak of 2007 or 1999, the market didn't just recover but

即使你在2007年或1999年的高峰期進行了投資，市場也不僅僅是復甦，而是

have grown substantially.

已經大幅增長。

Especially since 2011, the market has been growing faster than ever.

特別是自2011年以來，市場的增長速度超過了以往。

Just take a look at the s&p500.

看看標準普爾500指數就知道了。

The growth has been unstoppable.

增長是不可阻擋的。

Guess why?

猜猜看為什麼？

Because since 2008, the fed realised that instead of just letting the market correct

因為自2008年以來，美聯儲意識到，與其讓市場矯正

itself and recover, it can literally print trillions of dollars, throw it into the economy,

它可以從字面上印製數萬億美元，將其投入經濟。

and it's going to recover much faster, which has worked pretty good for the last two crises.

而且會恢復得更快，這在過去兩次危機中效果相當好。

But what stands out in the history of the stock market is February and march of 2020

但在股市歷史上最突出的是2020年的2月和3月

when the market collapsed.

當市場崩潰的時候。

Never in the history of the stock market has it collapsed so suddenly and so severely.

在股票市場的歷史上，它從來沒有如此突然和嚴重地崩潰過。

What makes this particular crash different from everything that has ever happened is

這場特殊的車禍與以往發生的一切不同之處在於

the fact that it instantly recovered, and since then, it has been on a rollercoaster.

的事實，它立即恢復了，從那時起，它一直在雲霄飛車上。

That's why a lot of analysts expect the market to crash again since it's not normal.

這就是為什麼很多分析家預計市場會再次崩潰，因為這不正常。

The market can't just, out of nothing, rise that much, especially when it's fuelled by

市場不可能無中生有地上漲那麼多，尤其是當它由以下因素推動的時候

cheap money.

廉價的錢。

But the question is, why the crash hasn't happened yet?

但問題是，為什麼崩潰還沒有發生？

Why it's still growing, and when exactly will it crash?

為什麼它仍在增長，以及它究竟何時會崩潰？

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up, and here is a little disclaimer, this

如果你準備好了，請為這個視頻豎起大拇指，這裡有一個小小的免責聲明，這

is not financial advice, and everything that's said in this video is for educational and

並非財務建議，本視頻中的所有內容都是教育性的，並不代表本網站的立場。

entertainment purposes and now let's dive in.

娛樂的目的，現在讓我們深入瞭解一下。

If you have been paying attention, there was a correction last month, and if you were smart

如果你一直在關注，上個月有一次修正，如果你很聰明的話

enough, you probably took advantage out of it.

足夠了，你可能從中得到了好處。

That was the time to buy, but it wasn't the first correction.

那是買入的時機，但這並不是第一次修正。

Every few months, we are experiencing a correction, and each time it feels like the market is

每隔幾個月，我們就會經歷一次修正，每次都感覺市場在

going to crash further, but it never did and seems like it's not going to happen in the

將進一步崩潰，但它從未發生過，而且似乎它不會發生在未來。

coming future.

即將到來的未來。

What we have to understand is that, for the last year or so, we have been during the boom

我們必須明白的是，在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們一直處於繁榮期

period.

期。

It's the time when the economy recovers grows exponentially.

這是經濟復甦的時候，經濟的增長是成倍的。

Remember the economic cycle we have talked about in one of the previous videos.

記得我們在之前的一個視頻中談到的經濟週期。

The economy starts growing to the point where it reaches its maximum potential, and then

經濟開始增長到達到最大潛力的時候，然後

it slows down.

它變慢了。

Inflation rises faster than the economy, so the fed raises interest rates to their maximum

通貨膨脹比經濟增長更快，所以美聯儲將利率提高到最高水準

in order to keep inflation under control, but it limits the supply of money into the

以控制通貨膨脹，但它限制了貨幣的供應量。

economy, so the economy barely grows and kinda grows enough to coupe with inflation.

經濟，所以經濟幾乎沒有增長，只是有點增長，足以與通貨膨脹相抗衡。

At some point, the bubble bursts, the economy crashes like a domino effect.

在某些時候，保麗龍破裂，經濟像多米諾骨牌效應一樣崩潰了。

It happened in 2008, in 1999, and in 2020.

它發生在2008年，1999年，以及2020年。

That's when the fed steps in with cheap money to help the economy recover faster by lowering

這時，美聯儲以廉價的貨幣介入，通過降低價格來幫助經濟更快地恢復。

rates and buying both corporate and government bonds.

匯率和購買公司和政府債券。

In the first year or two, usually, the economy recovers to its pre-crisis level.

在第一年或第二年，通常，經濟會恢復到危機前的水準。

Then it goes through the boom period where everything explodes until it reaches the peak

然後，它經歷了繁榮期，一切都在爆炸，直到它達到頂峰

again, where it slows down until it crashes again.

再一次，在那裡它放慢了速度，直到它再次崩潰。

Judging by this graph, it's clear where the economy is standing right now.

從這張圖來看，現在的經濟狀況很明顯。

Of course, no one knows the future, and we can't say that's it isn't going to crash,

當然，沒有人知道未來，我們也不能說它不會崩潰。

but there are usually a lot of indicators that point out what direction the economy

但通常有很多指標可以指出經濟的方向。

is headed to.

正在前往。

When the fed lowered the rates to almost 0 percent, people expected that as a temporary

當美聯儲將利率降低到幾乎為0%時，人們預計這只是暫時的。

measure because our economy is a consumer-based economy.

措施，因為我們的經濟是以消費為基礎的經濟。

The economic wheel turns around because people spend.

經濟輪迴因為人們的消費而轉動。

The moment they stop, everything stops.

他們停下來的那一刻，一切都停止了。

It just collapses.

它就這樣崩潰了。

Turning the wheel again is much harder, so the fed took an easier path by artificially

再次轉動車輪要難得多，所以美聯儲通過人為的方式走了一條更容易的路。

keeping the wheel turning while we are getting out of the pandemic, which seems like it did

在我們走出大流行病的時候，保持車輪的轉動，這看起來確實如此

a pretty good job, but it never said anything concrete about when will it raise the rates.

一個相當好的工作，但它從來沒有說過任何關於何時會提高利率的具體內容。

All they said is, they will do everything possible to save the economy, and it turns

他們說的是，他們將盡一切可能來拯救經濟，結果發現

out that means keeping the rates low not for just a few months or a year but a few years,

這意味著不是在幾個月或一年內而是在幾年內保持低利率。

until we fully recover from everything.

直到我們從一切中完全恢復。

So while the growth has slowed down, with these kinds of rates, it's impossible for

是以，雖然增長已經放緩，但以這樣的速度，不可能再有新的增長。

it to crash.

它崩潰了。

A lot of analysts expect the rates to be raised only in 2023, and that seems very reasonable.

很多分析家預計在2023年才會提高利率，這似乎非常合理。

Of course, anything could happen by then, but that's so far the most realistic scenario.

當然，到那時什麼都可能發生，但這是迄今為止最現實的情況。

The fed definitely wants to raise rates.

美聯儲肯定想加息。

No one likes this inflation.

沒有人喜歡這種通貨膨脹。

In fact, the fed kept saying that inflation is under control to calm everyone down when

事實上，美聯儲一直在說通貨膨脹受到控制，以安撫大家的情緒，當

in reality, inflation was much higher than feds expectations.

在現實中，通脹率遠遠高於美聯儲的預期。

The growth that has happened in the last few years wasn't free.

在過去幾年發生的增長並不是免費的。

It was at the expense of inflation.

這是以通貨膨脹為代價的。

Prices have soared all across the world, especially on real estate.

世界各地的價格都在飆升，尤其是房地產的價格。

House prices don't randomly soar by 20 or 30 percent.

房價不會隨機地飆升20%或30%。

That's not normal.

這是不正常的。

That's literally ten times higher than their usual rate.

這簡直比他們平時的比率高十倍。

What happened in the last one and half years was a huge experiment!We have never printed

過去一年半所發生的事情是一個巨大的試驗！我們從來沒有印刷過

so much money in such a short period of time.

在這麼短的時間內賺這麼多錢。

And it's not just about the US but worldwide.

而且這不僅僅是關於美國，而是全世界。

That's why it's difficult to make any predictions about how it could potentially end when we

這就是為什麼很難對它可能的結局做出任何預測，當我們

don't have any similar examples to look at.

沒有任何類似的例子可以看。

On top of that, the growing fear about the Chinese real estate market is also worrying

除此之外，對中國房地產市場日益增長的恐懼也令人擔憂

investors about how it could potentially influence the world.

投資者關於它如何潛在地影響世界。

China is not an isolated economy.

中國不是一個孤立的經濟體。

Literally, every country in the world is connected economically to china, especially the US.

從字面上看，世界上每個國家都與中國有經濟上的聯繫，尤其是美國。

So if china falls into a recession, it's definitely going to impact the US and the world in general.

是以，如果中國陷入經濟衰退，肯定會影響到美國和整個世界。

You probably have seen pictures of Chinese ghost towns.

你可能見過中國鬼城的照片。

The problem with china is that there aren't many investing tools available.

中國的問題是，沒有很多投資工具可用。

Yes, they have a stock market and huge multinational corporations like Alibaba, Tencent and so

是的，他們有一個股票市場和巨大的跨國公司，如阿里巴巴、騰訊等。

on, but they are heavily regulated by the state which makes their future unpredictable.

上，但它們受到國家的嚴格監管，這使得它們的未來無法預測。

Today they are growing, tomorrow their CEO gets into a conflict with the communist party

今天他們在成長，明天他們的首席執行官就會與共產黨發生衝突。

and a crackdown would begin.

並開始進行鎮壓。

Take the most famous Chinese entrepreneur Jack Ma.

以最著名的中國企業家馬雲為例。

He disappeared after criticising the regime and his fortune was reduced to just 50 billion

他在責備政權後消失了，他的財產被減少到只有500億。

dollars losing over 11 billion dollars in the process.

美元，在這個過程中損失超過110億美元。

So most people in china throw their savings at real estate because it looks like the most

是以，中國的大多數人把他們的儲蓄投向房地產，因為它看起來是最有價值的。

reliable investment.

可靠的投資。

Real estate prices rise, they are immune to inflation and they could be turned into a

房地產價格上漲，它們對通貨膨脹有免疫力，而且可以轉化為

source of passive income.

被動收入的來源。

However that strategy has backfired since they have built far more houses than they

然而，這一策略適得其反，因為他們建造的房屋遠遠多於他們的收入。

country needs which created a huge oversupply of homes in the country.

國家的需求，這就造成了國內住宅的巨大過剩。

Almost 25 percent of houses are empty, that's a record number and in some places, entire

幾乎25%的房屋是空的，這是一個創紀錄的數字，在一些地方，整個

buildings are destroyed since they have been around for years and no one has occupied them.

建築物被毀，因為它們已經存在多年，沒有人佔用它們。

People in chine are buying their third house as often as they buy their first house which

在中國，人們購買第三套房子的頻率與購買第一套房子的頻率相同。

reminds me of something that has happened in the US not that long ago.

這讓我想起了不久前發生在美國的一件事。

Exactly, low interest rates and loose regulations allowed people to buy multiple homes that

確切地說，低利率和寬鬆的法規使人們可以購買多套住房，而這些住房

they couldn't afford which led to the 2008 market crash.

他們負擔不起，這導致了2008年的市場崩潰。

Of course that's an over simplification, but that's what happened in short.

當然，這是個過度簡化的說法，但這就是簡而言之的情況。

And the same could happened in china which would drag down with it the world economy,

同樣的情況也可能發生在中國，這將拖累世界經濟。

but that's just speculation because no one really knows when that bubble is going to

但這只是猜測，因為沒有人真正知道這個保麗龍何時會破滅。

burst and how deadly it's going to impact the economy.

爆破，以及它將對經濟產生多麼致命的影響。

Theoretically, it doesn't seem like we are about to witness a crash and didn't happened

從理論上講，我們似乎並不像要見證一場崩潰，也沒有發生過。

in the last year or so because of the reasons we have discussed earlier.

在過去一年左右的時間裡，由於我們前面討論過的原因。

It's impossible to predict the crash, the best strategy is to just dollar cost average.

預測暴跌是不可能的，最好的策略是隻做美元成本平均。

But If you are not sure how to start investing in the stock market because you have a million

但是，如果你不確定如何開始在股市投資，因為你有一百萬

questions.

問題。

Don't worry!

別擔心!

I get it.

我明白了。

I was once in your position.

我曾經處於你的位置。

And to answer all of your questions, I have created a course that simple, straightforward

為了回答你所有的問題，我已經創建了一個簡單、直接的課程。

and fully animated.

而且是完全動畫化的。

I have literally answered almost all of the questions you have in your mind.

我實際上已經回答了你心中幾乎所有的問題。

I strongly recommend it if you are serious about investing.

如果你對投資有興趣，我強烈推薦它。

It will not just teach you how to invest in index funds but teach you how to analyse stocks

它不僅會教你如何投資於指數基金，還會教你如何分析股票

and read financial statements, and at the end of the course, you will have to complete

並閱讀財務報表，在課程結束時，你將必須完成

an assignment that I will personally check, and the best part of it is that you can get

我將親自檢查一份作業，其中最重要的是，你可以得到

2 weeks of Skillshare premium if you use the link in the description and get the course

如果你使用描述中的鏈接並獲得該課程，則可獲得2周的Skillshare premium

for free.

免費的。

So don't miss it.

所以不要錯過。

You can also start your investing journey by getting 2 free stocks from we bull by using

你也可以通過使用我們牛市的2只免費股票來開始你的投資之旅。

the link in the description.

描述中的鏈接。

You have everything you need to start.

你擁有開始所需的一切。

If you have enjoyed this video, you will most definitely enjoy this custom playlist that

如果你喜歡這個視頻，你一定會喜歡這個定製的播放列表，它是

I have created specifically for you that has our most popular videos on .... that can potentially

我專門為你創建了有我們最受歡迎的視頻的....，這有可能是

change your life.

改變你的生活。

And now give this video the thumbs up that it deserves, and make sure to subscribe if

現在給這個視頻豎起應有的大拇指，並確保訂閱，如果

you haven't done that yet.

你還沒有做到這一點。

Thanks for watching and until next.

謝謝你的觀看，直到下一次。