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  • Since the dawn of the nuclear age in the 1940s,

  • global stability has rested on a certain set of assumptions.

  • Most of the world's nuclear capability

  • was split between the U.S. and Russia,

  • and the umbrella of American protection meant

  • that its allies didn't have to develop nukes of their own.

  • That appears to be changing.

  • President Trump has famously been less hawkish

  • about standing up to Russia.

  • Now, the European Union is reportedly considering

  • a nuclear deterrent of its own,

  • in sharing France's weapons between member countries.

  • The situation in Asia is even more unsettled.

  • North Korea is fanatically pursuing its own arsenal

  • of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.

  • On Monday, it test-launched four of the rockets into the ocean,

  • just 200 miles shy of Japan.

  • And the American President has unconventional ideas

  • about how Japan should prepare:

  • North Korea has nukes.

  • Japan has a problem with that.

  • I mean, they have a big problem with that.

  • Maybe they would in fact be better off

  • if they defend themselves from North Korea.

  • With nukes?

  • Including with nukes, yes.

  • All of this has experts worried

  • about an era of renewed nuclear threat,

  • from jittery states and rogue actors

  • who might seize on the instability.

  • Among those sounding the alarm is William Perry,

  • who served as Secretary of Defense under President Clinton.

  • Bill Perry has spent most of his life

  • watching the world prepare for nuclear war,

  • and he thinks we aren't nearly as scared as we should be.

  • — I think the professionals in the field

  • have a pretty good understanding of the impact

  • of the use of nuclear weapons.

  • But the general public, to me, does not.

  • And many of our leaders do not.

  • Perry is 89-years-old.

  • He lectures at Stanford,

  • launched an online seminar last year,

  • and travels the world two or three months a year

  • to talk about how close we've come to catastrophe

  • and how close we still are.

  • He often talks about his "nightmare scenario,"

  • where a small amount of enriched uranium

  • ends up in the hands of a terrorist group.

  • If they had maybe 40 kilograms,

  • they could make an improvised nuclear bomb.

  • But what would be the consequences?

  • The consequences of a 15-kiloton bomb would be Hiroshima.

  • And besides the 80,000, 100,000 casualties,

  • the social, the political, and the economic consequences

  • are just really hard to believe.

  • How realistic is this, though?

  • Isn't this just some sci-fi fantasy fear?

  • — I think, of all of the nuclear catastrophes that could happen,

  • this is the most probable.

  • I think, I would say it's probably an even chance

  • this will happen sometime in the next 10 years.

  • An even chance?

  • Even chance.

  • Sometime in the next 10 years.

  • You may desperately want to dismiss Perry as an alarmist,

  • but he's a renowned expert,

  • often called upon by world leaders.

  • I met him in Mexico City,

  • where he was attending the celebration

  • of a 50-year-old nuclear ban treaty,

  • and running a closed-door planning meeting

  • for top nuclear proliferation experts from around the world,

  • known as the "Group of Eminent Persons."

  • They made us turn off the camera.

  • The truth is, the chance of a nuclear war is not what it once was.

  • In the late '80s, there were 70,000 nukes around the world.

  • Today, there are only about 15,000.

  • But Perry is not comforted by better odds.

  • We have the possibility of a regional nuclear war,

  • between Pakistan and India, for example.

  • Even if they used only half of their nuclear arsenal,

  • those bombs would put enough smoke in the air,

  • and enough dust in the air,

  • that'll go up and settle into the stratosphere,

  • and then distribute itself around the planet.

  • It would block the rays of the sun for years to come.

  • There could be millions of people who die from that alone.

  • That's a horrific vision.

  • Does it keep you up at night?

  • The one that really keeps me up at night,

  • is the one which is not as probable.

  • And that is that, somehow, Russia and the United States

  • blunder into a nuclear war.

  • An all-out general nuclear war,

  • between the United States and Russia,

  • would mean no less than the end of civilization.

  • That's not being dramatic.

  • That's a big hyperbolic.

  • That's just what would happen.

  • Today, Russia and the U.S. have 90% of the world's remaining nukes,

  • many of them old, and prone to error, and false alarm.

  • And they're in the hands of leaders who Perry sees

  • as having cavalier attitudes about their potential.

  • Are there things you see with President Trump that concern you?

  • Yes.

  • I think, unlike President Obama,

  • he doesn't have a clear understanding of what

  • the nuclear issues are and what the nuclear dangers are.

  • Secondly, I think he's demonstrated an impulsive temperament.

  • The first of them is solvable,

  • we can learn more, if he cares to do it.

  • The temperament issue, I'm afraid, is... is just there.

  • And that's why, at the age of almost 90,

  • you're here in Mexico City, and not on a golf course.

  • Exactly right.

  • One person can only do so much.

  • And I think I can do more than most.

  • You can scare us better than most.

  • — I can scare you.

  • You deserve to be scared.

Since the dawn of the nuclear age in the 1940s,

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核彈(This Is What a Nuclear War Would Actually Look Like (HBO))

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    joey joey 發佈於 2021 年 10 月 11 日
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