Most of the world's nuclear capability was split between the US and Russia, and the umbrella of American protection meant that its allies didn't have to develop nukes of their own.

世界上大多數的核能武器都在美國與俄國手中，而美國所提供的核能保護傘則讓它的同盟國們不必自行研發核能武器。

That appears to be changing.

然而情況似乎要改變了。

President Trump has famously been less hawkish about standing up to Russia.

眾所周知，川普總統在面對俄國時總是採取較為柔軟的姿態。

Now, the European Union is reportedly considering a nuclear deterrent of its own, in sharing France's weapons between member countries.

而現在據說歐盟因此正在考慮藉由將法國的核能武器分散部署在各個成員國，藉此建構出屬於自己的核武震懾力。

The situation in Asia is even more unsettled.

亞洲地區的情勢甚至更為複雜。

North Korea is fanatically pursuing its own arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.

北韓正積極地研發著自己的核能彈道飛彈。

On Monday, it test-launched four of the rockets into the ocean, just 200 miles shy of Japan.

在周一時 (2017 年 2 月 12 日)，北韓向海面試射了四枚火箭，距離日本僅有二百英里。

And the American President has unconventional ideas about how Japan should prepare:

而時任美國總統對於日本該為此如何做好準備，有著與一般人截然不同的想法：

North Korea has nukes. Japan has a problem with that.

北韓坐擁著核武。日本對此大傷腦筋。

I mean, they have a big problem with that.

我是說，這對他們來說是個大問題。

Maybe they would, in fact, be better off if they defend themselves from North Korea. Maybe we would be better off— - With nukes?

或許他們自己想辦法對付北韓還比較好。或許我們也能－ - 利用自己的核武嗎？

Including with nukes, yes.

包括核武，沒錯。

All of this has experts worried about an era of renewed nuclear threat, from jittery states and rogue actors who might seize on the instability.

這些情景讓專家對於一種新型態的核武威脅感到擔憂，任何抓住不穩定機會的躁動國家與法外份子都隨時可能發起攻擊。

Among those sounding the alarm is William Perry, who served as Secretary of Defense under President Clinton.

其中一位不斷警告大眾的專家是 William Perry，他是柯林頓總統時代的國防部長。

Bill Perry has spent most of his life watching the world prepare for nuclear war, and he thinks we aren't nearly as scared as we should be.

William Perry* 的大半輩子都在觀察著全世界準備核戰爭，並認為我們不夠了解事情若發生了會有多恐怖。(譯註：此處為記者口誤)

I think the professionals in the field have a pretty good understanding of the impact of the use of nuclear weapons.

我認為該領域中相關的專業人士對於使用核子武器會帶來怎麼樣的影響有著足夠深刻的理解。

But the general public, to me, does not.

但對我來說，大眾對此的認知還不夠。

And many of our leaders do not.

而許多的政治領袖也不夠了解。

Perry is 89 years old.

派瑞已經 89 歲了。

He lectures at Stanford, launched an online seminar last year and travels the world two or three months a year to talk about how close we've come to catastrophe and how close we still are.

他在史丹佛大學講課，去年剛開了一堂線上課程，專門講述我們曾經離世界末日僅有一步之遙，而我們現在仍離這個可能性有多近。

He often talks about his "nightmare scenario," where a small amount of enriched uranium ends up in the hands of a terrorists group.

他經常描述他的「噩夢情景」，也就是一批少量的濃縮鈾最後讓一群恐怖份子取得了的話會發生什麼事。

If they had maybe 40 kilograms, they could make an improvised nuclear bomb.

只要他們有個四十公斤，就能製造出一個土製核彈。

But what would be the consequences?

後果會怎麼樣呢？

The consequences of a 15-kiloton bomb would be Hiroshima.

等同於一萬五千噸黃色炸藥威力的炸彈會造成像是廣島那樣的後果。

And besides the 80,000, 100,000 casualties, the social, the political, and the economic consequences are just really hard to believe.

除了造成八萬到十萬的傷亡數以外，更可能對社會、政治與經濟造成難以置信的衝擊。

How realistic is this, though? Isn't this just some sci-fi fantasy fear?

但這多有可能發生？這難道不是只是種科幻小說式的恐懼而已嗎？

I think, of all of the nuclear catastrophes that could happen, this is the most probable.

我認為在所有可能發生的核武災難中，這是最有可能發生的。

I think, I would say it's probably an even chance this will happen sometime in the next ten years.

而且我認為類似的事件有 50% 的機率可能在十年內發生。

An even chance?

50% 的機率？

Even chance. Sometime in the next ten years.

50%。在十年內的某個時機點。

You may desperately want to dismiss Perry as an alarmist, but he's a renowned expert, often called upon by world leaders.

你在內心可能正極力將 Perry 的說法當做危言聳聽，但他可是位經常被世界領袖們傳喚的知名專家。

I met him in Mexico City, where he was attending the celebration of a 50-year-old nuclear ban treaty,

我跟他約在墨西哥市見面，而他正在此處參與一場簽署了五十年的禁止核武條約慶祝會，

and running a closed-door planning meeting for top nuclear proliferation experts from around the world, known as the "Group of Eminent Persons."

並且與來自世界各地被稱為「名人集團」的頂尖核武擴散專家，共同舉行閉門準備會議。

They made us turn off the camera.

他們要求我們關閉攝影機。

The truth is, the chance of a nuclear war is not what it once was.

真正的實情是，核子戰爭發生的可能性已與過去截然不同了。

In the late '80s, there were 70,000 nukes around the world.

在 1980 年代末，世界上還有七萬顆核子彈頭。

Today, there are only about 15,000.

到了今天只剩下了一萬五千顆。

But Perry is not comforted by better odds.

但 Perry 並沒有因為更低的機率而感到安心。

We have the possibility of a regional nuclear war, between Pakistan and India, for example.

我們仍有發生區域核子戰爭的可能性，例如巴基斯坦與印度之間的戰爭。

Even if they used only half of their nuclear arsenal, those bombs would put enough smoke in the air, and enough dust in the air,

就算他們只用上庫存中一半的核子武器，產生的灰燼與塵埃便有可能飄散到空氣中，

that'll go up and settle into the stratosphere, and then distribute itself around the planet.

最後往上移動並停留在平流層上，接著散布到整個星球。

It would block the rays of the sun for years to come.

這些塵土將會持續數年阻擋掉來自太陽的光線。

There could be millions of people who die from that alone.

光是這點就可能奪去數百萬人的性命。

That's a horrific vision. Does it keep you up at night?

這真是個可怕的想像。你在晚上會因此夜不成眠嗎？

The one that really keeps me up at night is the one which is not as probable.

其實真正讓我睡不著覺的，反而是一個可能性比較低的狀況。

And that is that, somehow, Russia and the United States blunder into a nuclear war.

也就是俄國和美國因為某種原因而爆發了核子戰爭。

An all-out general nuclear war, between the United States and Russia, would mean no less than the end of civilization.

在美國與俄國間發起的全面核武戰爭只會導致一種結果：人類文明的徹底完結。

That's not being dramatic. That's not being hyperbolic. That's just what would happen.

這不是在危言聳聽，也不是誇大不實。這就是會發生的後果。

Today, Russia and the US have 90% of the world's remaining nukes, many of them (are) old, and prone to error, and false alarm.

今日的俄國與美國仍坐擁著世界 90% 的核子武器，而其中許多已經相當老舊，有著出錯或是造成誤報的可能。

And they're in the hands of leaders who Perry sees as having cavalier attitudes about their potential.

而 Perry 認為這些武器如今正掌握在對於其潛在傷害能力不夠謹慎的領導人手中。

Are there things you see with President Trump that concern you?

川普總統的所做所為會讓你感到擔憂嗎？

Yes. I think, unlike President Obama, he doesn't have a clear understanding of what the nuclear issues are and what the nuclear dangers are.

會。我覺得他與歐巴馬總統不同的是，他對於核武議題的瞭解，以及核武的危險都理解得不夠透徹。

Secondly, I think he's demonstrated an impulsive temperament.

還有，我認為他展現出一種相當衝動的性格。

The first of them is solvable, we can learn more, if he cares to do it.

第一個問題可以解決。只要他想，任何人都可以學習更多。

The temperament issue, I'm afraid, is... is just there.

但至於性格的問題，我想... 恐怕是天生的。

And that's why, at the age of almost 90, you're here in Mexico City and not on a golf course.

這就是為什麼雖然你都快 90 歲了，還是跑來了墨西哥市，而不是在某個高爾夫球球場上享清福。

Exactly right.

完全沒錯。

One person can only do so much, and I think I can do more than most.

一個人能做的事情有限，但我想我做得比大多數人都還要更多。

You can scare us better than most.

你肯定比大多數人還要更會嚇人。

I can scare you. You deserve to be scared!

我是嚇得了你。而你也活該被嚇！