Let's talk real numbers.

讓我們來談談真實的數字。

Assuming you make 100K dollars annually, which is a pretty decent income.

假設你每年賺10萬美元，這是一個相當不錯的收入。

Let's put aside concepts like inflation, interest rates, opportunity cost aside and just assume

讓我們把通貨膨脹、利率、機會成本等概念放在一邊，只假設

hypothetically how many years you have to work to earn 1 billion dollars based on the

假設你要工作多少年才能賺取10億美元，根據

numbers we have today.

我們今天擁有的數字。

If you have started working the day the United States declared independence in 1776.

如果你在1776年美國宣佈獨立的那天開始工作。

let's assume that you were so frugal that you saved every penny and somehow survived

讓我們假設你是如此節儉，你節省了每一分錢，並以某種方式生存下來

without spending a single penny on anything.

不用花一分錢就能買到任何東西。

You lived with your parents, only ate at home what your mama cooked.

你和你的父母住在一起，只在家裡吃你媽媽做的東西。

By 2021, you will have 24.5 million dollars saved in your bank account.

到2021年，你的銀行賬戶上將有2450萬美元的存款。

Almost 250 years of hard work would not even put close to the billionaire's list.

近250年的努力工作甚至不會讓人接近億萬富翁的名單。

Leave alone competing with the world's richest people.

更不用說與世界上最富有的人競爭了。

Let's be a little bit more generous and extend that time frame to 2021 years.

讓我們更慷慨一點，把這個時間框架延長到2021年。

How much would you earn if you had worked hard for the entire modern history?

如果你在整個現代歷史中努力工作，你會賺多少錢？

Unfortunately, I have to disappoint you because you would only save 202.1 million dollars.

不幸的是，我不得不讓你失望，因為你只能節省2.021億美元。

That's not even 1 percent of Jeff Bezos's wealth, the world's wealthiest person.

這甚至還不到世界上最富有的人傑夫-貝佐斯財富的1%。

Let's put aside Jeff Bezos and figure out how long do you have to work to even be on

讓我們把傑夫-貝佐斯放在一邊，想想你要工作多久才能在

the Forbes Billionaire's list.

福布斯億萬富翁榜。

To make your first billion dollars, you have to work and save every penny for 10K years.

為了賺取你的第一個10億美元，你必須工作，並在1萬年內節省每一分錢。

Yes, 10K years.

是的，10K年。

Just for the record, human civilization is 12K years old.

僅供參考，人類文明有12K年的歷史。

This example should illustrate to you the difference between Bezos and someone making

這個例子應該向你說明，貝索斯和一個正在賺取利潤的人之間的區別。

100K dollars a year.

每年10萬美元。

Even if you make a million dollars a year, you still would be considered poor in comparison

即使你每年賺取一百萬美元，相比之下，你仍然會被認為是窮人。

to what Jeff Bezos has accumulated in the 30 years.

到傑夫-貝索斯在這30年裡所積累的東西。

This example perfectly illustrates to us that even if you have all the time in the world,

這個例子完美地向我們說明，即使你有世界上所有的時間。

you still won't be able to build wealth if you do not follow the rules of money.

如果你不遵守金錢的規則，你仍然無法積累財富。

We have already made multiple videos about the rules of money, which you can go back

我們已經制作了多個關於金錢規則的視頻，你可以回去看看。

to, but the question that many of you might have in mind is - do you really have to build

但你們中的許多人可能想到的問題是--你真的必須建造

a 2 trillion dollar company to be able to build that much wealth?

一個2萬億美元的公司能夠建立那麼多的財富？

The answer is no.

答案是否定的。

take the example of Warren Buffett.

以沃倫-巴菲特為例。

He didn't start a tech company or even was involved in the invention of any revolutionary

他沒有創辦一家科技公司，甚至沒有參與任何革命性的發明。

technology.

技術。

All he did was finding the right companies to invest in.

他所做的就是尋找合適的公司進行投資。

But not all investors turn out to be successful.

但並不是所有的投資者都能獲得成功。

Most people lose money when investing in the stock market and most recently in cryptocurrencies,

大多數人在投資股票市場和最近投資加密貨幣時都會虧損。

so the question is - what differentiates a successful investor from the rest?

是以，問題是--是什麼將成功的投資者與其他人區分開來？

What is value investing, and Why all millionaires follow this particular rule?

什麼是價值投資，為什麼所有的百萬富翁都遵循這一特殊規則？

We will answer all of these questions and many more.

我們將回答所有這些問題以及更多的問題。

But before we do that, make sure to give this video a thumbs up, and here is a little disclaimer

但在這之前，一定要為這個視頻豎起大拇指，這裡有一個小小的免責聲明

- this is not financial advice, and everything that's said in this video is for educational

- 這不是財務建議，本視頻中所說的一切是教育性的。

and entertainment purposes.

和娛樂的目的。

And now, let's dive in.

而現在，讓我們深入瞭解一下。

In the late 1990s, when Google was a tiny company.

在20世紀90年代末，當谷歌還是一個小公司時。

Sergey Brin and Larry page were desperately trying to sell google to a tech giant.

謝爾蓋-布林和拉里-佩奇正拼命想把谷歌賣給一個科技巨頭。

Back then, Google wasn't the conglomerate they are today.

那時，谷歌還不是今天這樣的企業集團。

Google's founders were more than happy to sell Google to Yahoo for 1 million dollars,

谷歌的創始人非常樂意以100萬美元的價格將谷歌賣給雅虎。

but Yahoo declined their offer and didn't see any value in Google since Yahoo was the

但雅虎拒絕了他們的提議，並且沒有看到谷歌的任何價值，因為雅虎是

internet back then.

那時的互聯網。

Yahoo was what google is today, but a Stanford professor named David Cheriton saw the value

雅虎就是今天的谷歌，但一位名叫大衛-謝里頓的斯坦福大學教授看到了價值。

in Google's algorithm and invested 100K dollars in the company.

在谷歌的算法中，並向該公司投資10萬美元。

Today his investment has grown to over 6 billion dollars.

今天，他的投資已經增長到60多億美元。

Instead of randomly buying stocks, he tried to find the value behind the company and bet

他沒有隨意購買股票，而是試圖找到公司背後的價值，並打賭

on the long run and turned $100K into 6 billion dollars.

從長遠來看，把10萬美元變成了60億美元。

That's what value investing is.

這就是價值投資的意義。

If you take a look at any company that Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, or Peter Lynch have

如果你看一下沃倫-巴菲特、查理-芒格或彼得-林奇擁有的任何公司

invested in, you will see the same pattern.

投入，你會看到同樣的模式。

Buffett looks for companies that are so valuable that he can buy the stock and forget about

巴菲特尋找的是那些非常有價值的公司，以至於他可以買下股票而忘掉這些公司。

it for the next 10 years.

在未來的10年裡。

Think of Coca-Cola, Gillette, and even Apple.

想想可口可樂、吉列，甚至是蘋果。

He doesn't intend to sell any of his stocks.

他不打算出售他的任何股票。

Some people doubt his investing abilities, but the fact that he built a 100 billion dollar

有些人懷疑他的投資能力，但事實上，他建立了一個1000億美元的

fortune simply by picking up the right companies to invest says a lot about the power of value

僅僅通過挑選合適的公司進行投資就能獲得財富，這說明了價值的力量。

investing.

投資。

Value investing is picking up stocks whose values are a lot more than what they are trading

價值投資就是挑選那些價值遠遠高於其交易量的股票。

in the market.

在市場上。

Back in 2016, Warren Buffett clearly saw that Apple is such a powerful brand that they literally

早在2016年，沃倫-巴菲特清楚地看到，蘋果是一個如此強大的品牌，他們簡直就是

sell anything they want for a much higher margin than any other tech company.

他們想賣什麼就賣什麼，利潤率比任何其他科技公司都高得多。

And in the last five years, apple's valuation tripled.

而在過去五年中，蘋果的估值增加了兩倍。

Most average investors choose a stock based on how popular the stock is or who's promoting

大多數普通投資者選擇股票的依據是該股票有多受歡迎或誰在宣傳。

it without really understanding the underlying technology behind it.

它沒有真正理解背後的基礎技術。

People have dozens of stocks in their portfolios, but if you ask them what they really know

人們在他們的投資組合中擁有幾十只股票，但如果你問他們真正瞭解什麼？

about the companies they have invested in, they barely know anything real.

關於他們所投資的公司，他們幾乎不知道任何真實的情況。

There are a lot of passionate Tesla investors, for example, on the internet who are calling

例如，在互聯網上有很多熱情的特斯拉投資者，他們呼籲

people like Warren Buffett fools who don't invest in Tesla.

像沃倫-巴菲特這樣不投資特斯拉的人是傻瓜。

They read short statements of Cathie Woods, who claims that Tesla is at least worth 3K

他們宣讀了凱西-伍茲的簡短聲明，他聲稱特斯拉至少值3千美元

dollars per stock.

每支股票美元。

Tesla is going to produce Roadster 2 that's going to be faster than Bugatti and yet only

特斯拉將生產Roadster 2，該車將比布加迪更快，但也只有

cost 250K dollars.

花費25萬美元。

Tesla Semi Track is on the way.

特斯拉半履帶正在路上。

Tesla is going to create an app that will compete with Uber.

特斯拉將創建一個與Uber競爭的應用程序。

Tesla is going to create 100 GIGA factories that will produce enough cars to replace every

特斯拉將創建100個GIGA工廠，將生產足夠的汽車來取代每一個人。

car in the world.

世界上的汽車。

Do you see the problem with that?

你知道這有什麼問題嗎？

Despite the fact that I admire Elon Musk for everything he is doing, especially with SpaceX,

儘管我很欽佩埃隆-馬斯克所做的一切，尤其是SpaceX。

he has created so much hype around Tesla that people treat Tesla as if it already has done

他在特斯拉周圍製造瞭如此多的炒作，以至於人們把特斯拉當作已經完成了的事情。

all of that when in reality Tesla roadster has been postponed to 2023, the semi-truck

所有這些，當現實中的特斯拉跑車被延後到2023年，半掛車

that was introduced in 2017, 4 years ago and its not yet on-sell, its Giga factories in

這是在2017年推出的，4年了，它還沒有銷售，其Giga工廠在

China and Germany are facing regulation problems.

中國和德國正面臨著監管問題。

I am not even talking about the Tesla app that will compete with uber or Level 5 autonomy

我甚至不是在談論將與uber或5級自動駕駛競爭的特斯拉應用程序。

that Musk has been promoting for the last I don't know how many years.

馬斯克在過去我不知道有多少年一直在宣傳。

Instead of completing any of these projects, Tesla came out and announced the Tesla Robot

特斯拉沒有完成任何這些項目，而是出來宣佈了特斯拉機器人

and how it's going to revolutionize the world and replace humans.

以及它將如何徹底改變世界並取代人類。

The world goes wild.

世界變得瘋狂。

Immature investors quickly buy Tesla shares when that robot is really just a human dressed

不成熟的投資者迅速買入特斯拉的股票，當那個機器人真的只是一個人類裝扮的時候

as a robot and performed a creepy dance, while Cathie woods, the woman who claimed that Tesla

作為一個機器人並表演了一個令人毛骨悚然的舞蹈，而聲稱特斯拉的女人Cathie Woods

stock worth at least 3K dollars, quietly sells 110 million dollars worth of Tesla stock.

價值至少3千美元的股票，悄悄地出售了價值1.1億美元的特斯拉股票。

Let me ask you a question: let's say you have a tv today costs 740 dollars and 100 percent

讓我問你一個問題：假設你今天有一臺電視機，價格為740美元，百分之百的

confident that in a year or 2, this TV will cost 3K dollars.

有信心在一兩年內，這臺電視將花費3千美元。

Would you sell it today?

你今天會賣掉它嗎？

Of course, No, why sell it now when you can it sell 4 times that price a year later.

當然，不，為什麼現在賣掉它，因為一年後你可以賣出4倍的價格。

Or maybe you don't really believe in what you are saying.

或者，也許你並不真正相信你所說的。

Value investing is the absolute opposite strategy.

價值投資是絕對相反的策略。

It's not about running behind what is cool or what's trending.

這並不是說要跟在什麼是酷或什麼是潮流的後面跑。

If it's already trending, then you are most likely late to the party.

如果它已經成為趨勢，那麼你很可能是遲到了。

If you know the true value of something, you can save a lot of money when you buy it on

如果你知道某樣東西的真正價值，你就可以在購買時節省很多錢。

sale.

銷售。

Most people would agree that whether you buy a new TV on sale or at full price, you're

大多數人都會同意，無論你是以打折還是全價購買一臺新電視，你都會

getting the same TV with the same screen size and picture quality.

得到同樣的電視，有同樣的螢幕尺寸和畫質。

Stocks, like TVs, go through periods of higher and lower demand leading to price fluctuations—but

股票和電視一樣，會經歷需求上升和下降的時期，導致價格波動，但

that doesn't change what you're getting for your money.

但這並不改變你所得到的錢的價值。

If a stock is worth $100 and you buy it for $58, you'll make a profit of $42 simply by

如果一隻股票價值100美元，而你以58美元的價格買入，你將獲得42美元的利潤，僅僅通過

waiting for the stock's price to rise to the $100 true value.

等待股票的價格上升到100美元的真實價值。

On top of that, the company might grow and become more valuable, giving you a chance

除此之外，公司可能會成長，變得更有價值，給你一個機會。

to make even more money.

以賺取更多的錢。

If the stock's price rises to $130, you'll make $72 since you bought the stock on sale.

如果股票價格上漲到130美元，你將賺到72美元，因為你是在銷售時買的股票。

If you had purchased it at its full price of $100, you would only make a $30 profit.

如果你以100美元的全價購買它，你將只賺30美元。

Of course, there are some fundamentals you have to look at before buying a stock, like

當然，在購買股票之前，有一些基本面是你必須要看的，例如

the balance sheet, cash flow, income statement.

資產負債表、現金流、利潤表。

Do your ratio analysis to find out how does it compares to its competitors and how cost

做好比率分析，找出它與競爭對手的比較，以及成本如何。

effetely they are using their resources.

他們正在有效地使用他們的資源。

However, that's not enough to find the true value of the company.

然而，這還不足以找到公司的真正價值。

Value investors look beyond these numbers, such as the people who ran the company, the

價值投資者看的是這些數字之外的東西，比如說經營公司的人，比如說公司的管理。

values, and principles the company is following.

公司所遵循的價值觀和原則。

At the end of the day, what is a company?

在一天結束時，什麼是公司？

It's a group of people who came together to create a product or a service, and based on

它是一群人走到一起，創造一個產品或服務，並根據

how creative, discipline, and organized these people are, the more successful the company

這些人的創造性、紀律性和組織性如何，公司就越成功。

is going to be.

將會是這樣。

That's why before investing in any company, Buffett usually meets with the management

這就是為什麼在投資任何公司之前，巴菲特通常會與管理層會面。

of that company to find out who really runs the company.

在該公司的辦公室裡，我們可以發現誰是公司的真正管理者。

If you can't do all of that, then you probably shouldn't invest in stocks.

如果你不能做到這些，那麼你可能不應該投資於股票。

In an experiment that was done by a Princeton Professor Burton Malkiel, blindfolded monkeys

在普林斯頓大學教授伯頓-馬爾基爾做的一個實驗中，矇住眼睛的猴子

throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages selected a better performing portfolio

向報紙的金融版投擲飛鏢，選擇了一個表現更好的投資組合

that mutual fund experts.

那位共同基金專家。

Yes, monkeys who know nothing about the stock market outperformed experts with Fancy MBA

是的，對股市一無所知的猴子的表現超過了擁有花式MBA的專家。

degrees and years of experience, which says a lot about our ability to pick up individual

這說明我們的能力是很強的，因為我們有學位和多年的經驗。

stocks.

股票。

That's why Warren Buffett said: most people would be better off investing in an index

這就是為什麼沃倫-巴菲特說：大多數人最好是投資於一個指數

fund like the SP500.

像SP500這樣的基金。

That's not to say that you shouldn't invest in individual companies.

這並不是說你不應該投資於個別公司。

You can if you know how the company operates if you're familiar with the products and deeply

如果你知道公司是如何運作的，如果你熟悉產品，你就可以深

understand the company's philosophy.

瞭解公司的理念。

If you want to learn the fundamentals of the stock market, how to read financial statements,

如果你想學習股票市場的基本原理，如何閱讀財務報表。

or do your ratio analysis, you can check out my course on Skillshare.

或者做你的比率分析，你可以在Skillshare上查看我的課程。

If you have enjoyed this video, you will most definitely enjoy this custom playlist that

如果你喜歡這個視頻，你一定會喜歡這個定製的播放列表，它是

I have created specifically for you that has our most popular videos on .... that can potentially

我專門為你創建了有我們最受歡迎的視頻的....，這有可能是

change your life.

改變你的生活。

And now give this video the thumbs up that it deserves, and make sure to subscribe if

現在給這個視頻豎起應有的大拇指，並確保訂閱，如果

you haven't done that yet.

你還沒有做到這一點。

Thanks for watching and until next.

謝謝你的觀看，直到下一次。