Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

自動翻譯
  • Imagine you're an investor or a supplier dealing with one of the world's most valuable

    想象一下,你是一個投資者或供應商,與世界上最有價值的公司之一打交道。

  • property developers.

    房地產開發商。

  • Or being one of its 200,000 employees.

    或者成為其20萬名員工中的一員。

  • Then, you find out that that very company is also the most indebted property developer

    然後,你發現那家公司也是負債最多的房地產開發商。

  • in the world, to the tune of $300 billion.

    在世界範圍內,達到3000億美元的規模。

  • As Evergrande teeters on the edge of default, collapse would have grave consequences for

    由於恆大在違約邊緣徘徊,倒閉將對其造成嚴重後果。

  • hundreds of thousands of property buyers and retail customers.

    數以十萬計的房產買家和零售客戶。

  • After years of borrowing to fuel its rapid growth, Chinese behemoth Evergrande is facing

    經過多年的借貸來推動其快速增長,中國的巨頭恆大正面臨著

  • a major crisis, spooking markets and prompting comparisons to the collapse of U.S. investment

    一場重大危機,使市場受到驚嚇,並促使人們將其與美國投資的崩潰相比較。

  • bank Lehman Brothers in 2008.

    2008年,雷曼兄弟銀行。

  • So, is this China's “Lehman brothersmoment?

    那麼,這是中國的 "雷曼兄弟 "時刻嗎?

  • Emily Tan, CNBC's senior correspondent for our Hong Kong bureau, has been in the thick

    CNBC香港分社的高級記者艾米麗-譚,一直都在忙於工作。

  • of the action since the warning signs emerged.

    的行動,因為警告信號出現了。

  • Emily, you're one of the best people I know to clue us in into what's going on with

    艾米麗,你是我認識的最好的人之一,可以為我們提供線索,讓我們知道發生了什麼事。

  • the Evergrande crisis.

    恆大的危機。

  • So thanks for doing this.

    是以,感謝你這樣做。

  • It's good to be here.

    來到這裡真好。

  • I think to understand the whole scale of it, we have to start from the beginning.

    我認為要了解它的整個規模,我們必須從頭開始。

  • So what is Evergrande, and is it just a real estate company?

    那麼,什麼是恆大,它只是一家房地產公司嗎?

  • Evergrande was founded by Hui Ka Yan in 1996 in Guangzhou and basically rode China's

    恆大由許家印於1996年在廣州創立,基本上是騎在中國的頭上。

  • property boom.

    財產熱潮。

  • Evergrande is one of China's largest real estate developers.

    恆大是中國最大的房地產開發商之一。

  • It is number two by sales.

    按銷售額計算,它排在第二位。

  • It is listed in Hong Kong but based in Shenzhen.

    它在香港上市,但總部在深圳。

  • It owns more than 1,300 residential projects across more than 280 cities.

    它在280多個城市擁有1300多個住宅項目。

  • And as it has made its name in residential property, it also has interests in electric

    由於它在住宅地產方面的名氣很大,所以它在電力方面也有興趣。

  • vehicles to theme parks from insurance, even to bottled water.

    從車輛到主題公園的保險,甚至到瓶裝水。

  • It also has a soccer team, Guangzhou FC, which built the world's biggest soccer school

    它也有一支足球隊,即廣州足球俱樂部,它建立了世界上最大的足球學校。

  • and has a soccer stadium under construction to go with it.

    並有一個正在建設中的足球場與之配套。

  • The warning signs of a potential collapse appeared as early as 2018, when Evergrande

    早在2018年就出現了潛在崩潰的警告信號,當時恆大

  • was flagged as a risk by China's central bank.

    被中國央行標記為風險。

  • So how did it get to this point of incurring such a big debt?

    那麼,它是如何走到這一步招致如此大的債務的呢?

  • Evergrande borrowed to finance all of its pursuits and its debt ballooned.

    恆大借錢來為其所有的追求提供資金,其債務不斷膨脹。

  • It has since accumulated over $300 billion in debt, giving it the title of the world's

    此後,它積累了超過3000億美元的債務,使其獲得了世界上最大的債務國的稱號。

  • most indebted developer.

    欠債最多的開發商。

  • You can compare that with Russia's state debt of $257 billion in 2020.

    你可以將其與俄羅斯2020年2570億美元的國債進行比較。

  • It also sold $6.5 billion in high yield management products, and that's to an estimated 80,000 investors.

    它還出售了65億美元的高收益管理產品,而這是向大約8萬名投資者出售的。

  • And then there's the homebuyers that pre-paid for 1.6 million flats that have still yet

    還有那些預付了160萬套住房的購房者,他們還沒有為自己的房子買單。

  • to be delivered.

    將要交付的。

  • I wanted to talk about China's three red lines, right.

    我想談一談中國的三條紅線,對。

  • And it's part of their policy to improve the financial health of the real estate sector.

    而這也是他們改善房地產行業財務健康的政策的一部分。

  • Would you be able to give a brief explanation?

    你能簡單解釋一下嗎?

  • There are these three red lines.

    有這三條紅線。

  • The government developed this system to curb borrowing.

    政府制定這一制度是為了遏制借貸。

  • First, to ensure a liability to asset ratio of less than 70%.

    首先,確保負債與資產的比率低於70%。

  • Then, the next line, net gearing ratio of less than 100%.

    然後,下一行,淨資產負債率低於100%。

  • And the third line, cash to short-term debt ratio of at least one.

    而第三行,現金與短期債務的比率至少為1。

  • If you cross all three of these lines, which Evergrande does, this will restrict you from

    如果你越過了這三條線,而恆大就是這樣做的,這將限制你從

  • borrowing more money.

    借用更多的錢。

  • Besides being at the mercy of these policies, what else caused Evergrande to be where it is today?

    除了受這些政策的擺佈,還有什麼原因導致恆大走到今天?

  • A few years ago, China's most acquisitive companies were all forced to downsize following

    幾年前,中國最具收購能力的公司都被迫縮減規模。

  • debt-fuelled shopping sprees.

    債務驅動的購物狂歡。

  • Names like Dalian Wanda, Anbang, HNA and Fosun.

    像大連萬達、安邦、海航和復星這些名字。

  • Evergrande has warned investors about its cashflow issues and in September, even flagged

    恆大已經警告投資者其現金流問題,在9月,甚至標明瞭

  • depressed flat sales, and it was having trouble finding buyers for all of its assets.

    蕭條的銷售,而且它很難為其所有資產找到買家。

  • Evergrande recently stopped repaying investors and suppliers, halting building work at its

    恆大最近停止了對投資者和供應商的付款,並停止了其建築工程。

  • housing projects, and we've also heard reports now that it has stopped paying employees and suppliers.

    住房項目,而且我們現在還聽到報告說,它已經停止向僱員和供應商付款。

  • We've seen protests, and they've showed up in their Shenzhen headquarters demanding payments

    我們已經看到了抗議活動,他們在深圳總部出現,要求付款

  • on their wealth management products

    關於他們的財富管理產品

  • Evergrande has recently hired a debt restructuring company, Houlihan Lokey, who has advised names

    恆大最近聘請了一家債務重組公司Houlihan Lokey,該公司曾為恆大提供諮詢服務。

  • like Lehman, Enron and WorldCom.

    如雷曼、安然和世通。

  • If the talk of a potential economic downturn triggered by a housing bubble sounds familiar,

    如果關於由房地產保麗龍引發的潛在經濟衰退的談論聽起來很熟悉。

  • it's because it is.

    這是因為它是。

  • 13 years ago, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis culminated with the largest bankruptcy filing

    13年前,美國次級抵押貸款危機以最大的破產申請而達到高潮

  • in U.S. history then, which led to the global financial crisis.

    當時在美國曆史上,這導致了全球金融危機的發生。

  • What is the domino effect of the Evergrande crisis?

    恆大危機的多米諾骨牌效應是什麼?

  • We're gonna be watching the effects on homebuyers as well as investors, because we have some

    我們將關注對購房者以及投資者的影響,因為我們有一些

  • buyers paying mortgages on projects that have been suspended.

    購買者支付已暫停的項目的抵押貸款。

  • And then there are the banks, there are some 125 financial institutions, 121 non-financial

    然後是銀行,大約有125家金融機構,121家非金融機構。

  • institutions with liabilities.

    有負債的機構。

  • Then there's the suppliers.

    然後是供應商。

  • For example, if you look at some of these suppliers in Japan, toilet maker Toto is likely

    例如,如果你看一下日本的一些供應商,馬桶製造商Toto可能是

  • a supplier, as China accounted for 30% of its profits in 2020.

    一個供應商,因為中國在2020年佔其利潤的30%。

  • And then there's the air conditioning manufacturer Daikin, which gets 25% of its sales from China.

    還有空調製造商大金公司,其25%的銷售額來自中國。

  • Then there are some real estate developers, and some of them are highly distressed real

    然後有一些房地產開發商,其中一些是高度不良的房地產

  • estate companies, at the risk of collapse.

    房地產公司,面臨崩潰的危險。

  • They are tiny, on their own, but collectively they make up 10 – 15% of the total market.

    它們本身是很小的,但合起來卻佔了整個市場的10-15%。

  • Analysts say if they do collapse, this could result in a systemic spill over to other parts

    分析師說,如果它們真的崩潰了,這可能會導致系統性地蔓延到其他地區。

  • of the economy.

    的經濟。

  • Then, we worry about the financial system.

    然後,我們擔心的是金融系統。

  • Li Daokui, he's a former advisor to the PBOC, he expects minimal spill over to the

    李稻葵,他是中國人民銀行的前顧問,他預計對中國人民銀行的溢出效應最小。

  • financial system, and that's because there aren't derivative instruments built on the

    金融系統,這是因為沒有建立在 "金融系統 "上的衍生工具。

  • Evergrande debt.

    恆大的債務。

  • Derivatives are financial contracts that derive their value from the prices of other things,

    衍生品是金融合同,其價值來自於其他事物的價格。

  • such as stocks, mortgages, currencies or commodities such as a barrel of oil.

    如股票、抵押貸款、貨幣或商品,如一桶石油。

  • These instruments are generally used to minimize investment risks or for speculation.

    這些工具一般用於最大限度地降低投資風險或用於投機。

  • So people ask, will this be a Lehman event?

    所以人們問,這將是一個雷曼事件嗎?

  • Well, because there are no derivative instruments, we shouldn't see it play out in exactly

    好吧,因為沒有衍生工具,我們不應該看到它完全發揮出來。

  • the same way, but economic growth will take a hit.

    同樣的方式,但經濟增長將受到打擊。

  • Then there's the shareholders, Chinese Estates.

    然後是股東,中國房地產公司。

  • It is the biggest shareholder behind the company's chairman Hui Ka Yan, and they announced their

    它是公司董事長許家印背後的最大股東,他們宣佈了他們的

  • intention to sell down their entire stake in the company.

    打算出售他們在該公司的全部股份。

  • They said that the company's directors are cautious and concerned about recent developments.

    他們說,公司的董事們對最近的事態發展持謹慎和關注態度。

  • Real estate in China is estimated to account for more than a quarter of the country's

    據估計,中國的房地產佔全國總產值的四分之一以上。

  • GDP, so any fallout will result in many angry investors, doomed businesses and a very worried

    是以,任何後果都將導致許多憤怒的投資者、註定失敗的企業和一個非常擔心的

  • government.

    政府。

  • But, can the property market be stabilized?

    但是,房地產市場能夠穩定下來嗎?

  • So everyone's asking whether or not there will be a government bailout, no one is really

    所以每個人都在問是否會有政府救助,沒有人真的

  • sure.

    確實如此。

  • But here are a couple of signs indicating that we may not see that.

    但這裡有幾個跡象表明,我們可能不會看到這一點。

  • The editor-in-chief at the Global Times, which is a publication viewed as a Communist Party

    被視為共產黨出版品的《環球時報》的主編。

  • mouthpiece, declared Evergrande, quote unquote, “not too big to fail”.

    喉舌宣佈恆大 "不至於失敗"。

  • And so, the company should not count on a bailout.

    是以,該公司不應指望得到救助。

  • But then there's also policymakers that have told lenders to extend their payment deadlines

    但也有政策制定者告訴貸款人延長付款期限的情況

  • and rollover loans to Evergrande.

    和對恆大的滾動貸款。

  • Some say China would be compelled to step in if the contagion was far reaching, like

    有人說,如果傳染病影響深遠,中國將被迫介入,比如

  • if there were multiple developers.

    如果有多個開發商的話。

  • But one company failing on its own, would be unlikely.

    但是,一家公司單獨失敗,將是不可能的。

  • But wasn't there a precedence for government bailout for debt ridden companies in China?

    但是,在中國,政府對債務纏身的公司進行救助不是有先例嗎?

  • Yeah, we can take an example from Huarong Asset Management.

    是的,我們可以從華融資產管理公司舉一個例子。

  • This was China's biggest bad debt manager which secured a rescue package from some of

    這是中國最大的壞賬管理人,從一些國家獲得了救援方案。

  • the country's biggest financial firms.

    該國最大的金融公司。

  • Its plight had become the biggest test in decades of whether Beijing would shield state-owned

    它的困境已成為幾十年來對北京是否會保護國有企業的最大考驗。

  • firms from market forces amid a renewed push by President Xi Jinping to rein in debt growth

    在國家主席習近平重新推動控制債務增長的背景下,企業從市場力量中獲益。

  • as defaults have hit records.

    因為違約金已經創下記錄。

  • So what we're going to be watching out for is whether President Xi will balance setting

    是以,我們將關注的是,習主席是否會平衡設置

  • the precedent of a very expensive state organised bailout, knowing that the government can't

    一個非常昂貴的國家組織的救助的先例,知道政府不能

  • save all distressed developers.

    拯救所有陷入困境的開發商。

  • And not to mention, it doesn't really jive with his vision for common prosperity, and

    更不用說,這與他對共同繁榮的願景並不一致,而且

  • an equitable society, it has no room for rescuing Hui Ka Yan, who at one point was China's

    一個公平的社會,它沒有空間去拯救許家印,他曾一度是中國的

  • richest man.

    最富有的人。

  • Emily, what is the biggest takeaway from this?

    艾米麗,從中得到的最大收穫是什麼?

  • You know, it touches so many people, it's not just about an investment.

    你知道,它觸動了這麼多的人,它不僅僅是一項投資。

  • Real estate makes up more than a quarter of the Chinese economy.

    房地產佔中國經濟的四分之一以上。

  • This is about people's housing, they're paying mortgages for homes that have not even been

    這關係到人們的住房,他們正在為甚至還沒有的房屋支付抵押貸款。

  • delivered yet.

    尚未交付。

  • People are just trying to build themselves a future.

    人們只是試圖為自己建立一個未來。

  • The story continues to unfold.

    故事繼續展開。

  • Thanks everyone for watching this video,

    感謝大家觀看這個視頻。

  • don't forget to subscribe

    不要忘記訂閱

  • and while you're at it, let us know what do you think about China's real estate crisis. Stay safe.

    當你在這裡的時候,讓我們知道你對中國的房地產危機有什麼看法。保持安全。

Imagine you're an investor or a supplier dealing with one of the world's most valuable

想象一下,你是一個投資者或供應商,與世界上最有價值的公司之一打交道。

字幕與單字
自動翻譯

影片操作 你可以在這邊進行「影片」的調整,以及「字幕」的顯示

B1 中級 中文 中國 房地產 公司 債務 供應商 金融

中國房地產巨頭恆大有一個巨大的債務問題--這就是你應該關心的原因 (Chinese property giant Evergrande has a huge debt problem – here's why you should care)

  • 14 0
    Summer 發佈於 2021 年 09 月 30 日
影片單字