Hello, and welcome to another episode of CNBC's  Beyond the Valley. I'm Arjun Kharpal in Guangzhou,  

你好，歡迎來到CNBC的另一集《超越山谷》。我是廣州的Arjun Kharpal。

China, but today we're going to be speaking about  El Salvador because it's become the first country  

中國，但今天我們要講的是薩爾瓦多，因為它已經成為第一個國家。

to adopt bitcoin as a legal currency. Now, this  is a really big deal because for such a long time  

採用比特幣作為合法貨幣。現在，這是一個真正的大問題，因為在這麼長的時間裡

bitcoin proponents around the world have been  urging countries to adopt bitcoin, to embrace  

世界各地的比特幣支持者一直在敦促各國採用比特幣，以擁抱

the digital currency, and now we have our first  real world example of that. Our first real world  

數字貨幣，而現在我們有了第一個現實世界的例子。我們的第一個現實世界

experiment to see how that plays out. Now it  was president Nayib Bukele, the president of El  

實驗看看結果如何。現在是艾爾-布克爾總統納伊布-布克爾，他是艾爾-布克爾的總統。

Salvador, who introduced the bitcoin law into the  legislative system. It passed the congress's vote  

薩爾瓦多，他將比特幣法引入立法系統。它通過了國會的投票

and has now been adopted as law and that law is  interesting because it gives some of the reasoning  

現在已經被採納為法律，該法律很有意思，因為它給出了一些推理。

around why El Salvador wanted to adopt bitcoin as  a legal currency. I just want to read some of that  

圍繞薩爾瓦多為什麼要採用比特幣作為合法貨幣。我只想讀一下其中的一些內容

for you. Because in there, it says 70 percent of  the population does not have access to traditional  

給你。因為在那裡，它說70%的人口沒有機會獲得傳統的

financial services, and bitcoin is seen as  a way to potentially help solve that problem  

金融服務，而比特幣被認為是一種可能幫助解決這個問題的方式。

as well. Now another big part of the picture here  is remittances. This is money Salvadorans outside  

也是如此。現在，這裡的另一個重要部分是匯款。這是在國外的薩爾瓦多人的錢

of the country are sending back home to their  families. For example, remittances in 2020 the  

的人正在向他們的家人匯款。例如，2020年的匯款額為

country received nearly six billion dollars  worth of remittances, accounting for nearly  

該國收到了價值近60億美元的匯款，幾乎佔到了所有匯款的一半。

25 percent of its GDP, and bitcoin is touted as  a way to make remittances, that money transfer  

佔其GDP的25%，而比特幣被吹捧為一種匯款的方式，即資金轉移

process faster and cheaper as well. President  Bukele has also claimed that bitcoin could give  

過程也更快、更便宜。布克爾總統還聲稱，比特幣可以給

the country a GDP boost. But adopting bitcoin as  legal tender, as a legal currency, what does that  

國家的GDP得到了提升。但是，將比特幣作為法定貨幣，作為法定貨幣，那是什麼呢？

actually mean? Well according to the law, it means  prices can be expressed in bitcoin. Taxes can be  

實際上是什麼意思？那麼根據法律，這意味著價格可以用比特幣表示。稅收可以是

paid in bitcoin. It means exchanges in bitcoin are  not subject to capital gains tax as well. There  

以比特幣支付。這意味著比特幣的交換也不需要繳納資本利得稅。有

is a line in there which is interesting because  it stirred a bit of controversy, and that line  

其中有一句話很有意思，因為它引起了一些爭議，而這句話

says this: "Every economic agent must accept  bitcoin as payment when offered to him by whoever  

是這樣說的。"每一個經濟主體都必須接受比特幣作為付款，無論誰向他提供比特幣，他都必須接受。

acquires a good or service." Now, the reason  it stirs some controversy is because it appears  

獲得一個商品或服務"。現在，它引起一些爭議的原因是，它似乎

to compel everyone selling a good or service to  accept bitcoin, but what if they don't want to?  

迫使每個出售商品或服務的人接受比特幣，但如果他們不想接受呢？

That's just one of the many questions here,  on top of the fact that we know bitcoin is  

這只是眾多問題中的一個，除此之外，我們知道比特幣是

extremely volatile. If you're a merchant, one day  you accept bitcoin as payment and that moves ten  

非常不穩定。如果你是一個商人，有一天你接受了比特幣作為支付方式，那就會有十倍的波動。

percent down or ten percent up in the next hour  or so. That volatility, that uncertainty could  

在接下來的一小時左右的時間裡，會有百分之百的下跌或百分之十的上漲。這種波動性，這種不確定性可能

be quite unsettling as well. There's so many other  questions. For example, is El Salvador's digital  

也是相當令人不安的。還有很多其他問題。例如，薩爾瓦多的數字是否

infrastructure ready? Given the fact that this is  a digital currency, there's going to be a lot of  

基礎設施準備好了嗎？鑑於這是一個數字貨幣的事實，將有大量的

infrastructure that needs to be put in place, as  well as education for people who may not ever have  

需要建立的基礎設施，以及對那些可能從未見過的人的教育。

heard of bitcoin. So certainly lots of questions.  To get to the bottom of these questions,  

聽說過比特幣。所以肯定有很多問題。 為了弄清這些問題的真相。

I'm joined now by Rachel Ziemba, an Adjunct Senior  Fellow at the Center for a New American Security.  

現在我請到了新美國安全中心的兼職高級研究員瑞秋-齊姆巴。

Her focus is very much on finance economics and  the links between those and security issues as  

她的重點是金融經濟學以及這些問題與安全問題之間的聯繫，因為

well. So Rachel, there are a lot of questions and  concerns about El Salvador's move to make bitcoin  

好的。是以，Rachel，對於薩爾瓦多讓比特幣的舉動有很多疑問和擔憂

legal tender. One of those is the fact that  the US dollar is already the official currency  

法定貨幣。其中之一是美元已經是官方貨幣的事實

there in El Salvador. What does it mean then by  bringing something like bitcoin into the system?

在薩爾瓦多。那麼把比特幣這樣的東西帶入系統意味著什麼？

So the biggest thing is that the government  of El Salvador is introducing bitcoin as this  

所以最大的事情是薩爾瓦多政府正在引入比特幣作為這

alternate legal tender, which basically  means that if one goes into a store  

替代法定貨幣，這基本上意味著，如果一個人進入一家商店

and does a transaction or has a debt with another  individual, that they have to accept bitcoin.  

並與另一個人做交易或有債務，那他們就必須接受比特幣。

So El Salvador is a little bit unique because  it's one of the few countries that uses another  

是以，薩爾瓦多有點獨特，因為它是少數幾個使用另一種方法的國家之一。

country's currency as its legal tender. So there's  some countries that peg to the US seller. There's  

國家的貨幣作為其法定貨幣。是以，有一些國家與美國賣方掛鉤。有

other countries that sort of use their own. But  El Salvador is already using another currency  

其他國家也在使用他們自己的貨幣。但薩爾瓦多已經在使用另一種貨幣

so they've already ceded monetary  control. What they're doing now  

所以他們已經讓出了貨幣控制權。他們現在正在做的是

is they're saying that private sector, that  individuals, have to accept bitcoin. So what's  

他們說私人部門，個人，必須接受比特幣。那麼什麼是

unique about that is they're moving from  what has been a rather cash-based economy,  

關於這一點的獨特之處在於，他們正在從一直以來相當以現金為基礎的經濟轉移。

to one in which bitcoin is a digital asset. So  they're in some ways making several leaps at once.

到比特幣是一種數字資產的情況下。所以他們在某種程度上同時進行了幾次飛躍。

Yeah there's a lot to unpack  there. I mean, just practically,  

是的，那裡有很多東西需要解讀。我的意思是，只是實際情況。

other examples of countries having two  

其他有兩個國家的例子

currencies as legal tenders. I mean, how do sort  of multiple currency systems work in the world?

貨幣作為法定投標。我的意思是，世界上的多種貨幣系統是如何運作的？

Sure, so one thing that's unique about El  Salvador is that they have two official  

當然，所以薩爾瓦多的一個獨特之處在於，他們有兩個官方的

currencies as legal tender. There's plenty of  countries where you might have one currency,  

貨幣作為法定貨幣。有很多國家可能有一種貨幣。

but then you go into a shop and they'll accept  another currency - US dollars or euros often - or  

但當你進入一家商店時，他們會接受另一種貨幣--通常是美元或歐元，或

individual transactions will take place in  those countries. You see that a lot in countries  

個人交易將在這些國家進行。你在很多國家都能看到這種情況

where the currencies are volatile.  Places like Nigeria, places like Turkey,  

貨幣波動較大的地方。 像尼日利亞這樣的地方，像土耳其這樣的地方。

but that's not necessarily official, and  so that doesn't require the shopkeeper  

但這不一定是官方的，所以這不需要店主

or whoever to accept that other currency. What's  unique about this beyond the fact of it being  

或誰來接受該其他貨幣。除了這個事實之外，它的獨特之處在於

bitcoin, is that there's two assets that are  not co-moving and one that's very volatileS  

比特幣，是有兩種資產是不共同流動的，一種是非常不穩定的S

o beyond the digital question, you have a  whole sort of society that is probably not  

在數字問題之外，你有一個完整的社會種類，可能不是一個簡單的問題。

used to the sheer volatility of bitcoin  and questions about access to it.

習慣了比特幣的巨大波動性和關於獲取比特幣的問題。

And that's really a huge point isn't it,  Rachel? The volatility of bitcoin. You know,  

這真的是一個很大的問題，不是嗎，瑞秋？比特幣的波動性。你知道的。

I'm a merchant and someone pays me a bitcoin  today. Then there's a big eight or nine percent  

我是個商人，今天有人付給我一個比特幣。然後有一個很大的百分之八或九的

crash the next day, and now I've lost that  value. You know, the other question is if you're  

第二天就崩潰了，現在我已經失去了這個價值。你知道，另一個問題是，如果你是

talking about any kind of debts or anything like  that. What price is this going to be determined  

談論任何種類的債務或類似的東西。這要確定什麼價格

in? Is it going to be in bitcoin, USD? I mean,  is it going to be from the point at which you got  

在？是用比特幣還是美元？我的意思是，它將從你得到的那一刻開始

the debt or when the debt is due? There's so many  questions around that volatility, isn't there?

債務或債務何時到期？圍繞這個波動性有很多問題，不是嗎？

There are, and I think that's going to mean  a lot of people could lose a lot of money  

有，而且我認為這將意味著很多人可能會損失很多錢。

or perceived money and value. Particularly  given that El Salvador is a country that  

或感知到的金錢和價值。特別是鑑於薩爾瓦多是一個

relies a lot on remittance flows being  sent from the US in particular. It's one  

特別是依靠從美國匯出的匯款流量。它是一個

of the countries that's reliant heavily on  these transactions, and so there might be an  

這些國家在很大程度上依賴這些交易，是以，可能會有一個

anticipation that x amount of this transfer  is going to buy y amount of goods at home,  

預計這筆轉賬中的X金額將在國內購買Y金額的商品。

and there could be a lot of questions there.  As the law seems to be written right now,  

而且那裡可能有很多問題。 正如現在的法律似乎是這樣寫的。

and there are many questions about that. It  seems to require any transaction, that debts  

而且對此有很多疑問。它似乎要求任何交易，即債務

should be allowed to be settled in bitcoin, but i  think there's a real sort of question about that.  

應該被允許用比特幣結算，但我認為這確實存在某種問題。

There are plenty of other transactions globally  that might be conducted in bitcoin. You know,  

在全球範圍內，還有很多其他交易可能用比特幣進行。你知道的。

rents that are taken, purchases that are made,  but often they're quickly converted into a fiat  

租用的是租金，購買的是物品，但往往很快就被轉換為法幣。

currency. I think there's a real question mark  about how that's going to work in El Salvador,  

貨幣。我認為這在薩爾瓦多如何運作是一個真正的問號。

and who's going to bear that cost of that  volatility. The risk is that some of the  

以及誰將承擔這種波動的成本。風險是，一些

average citizens are going to be the ones that pay  for that, as well as the private sector entities  

普通公民將是為此付出代價的人，還有私營部門的實體也是如此。

that are going to be struggling to think about how  are they hedging these risks. There's not a lot of  

他們將努力思考他們如何對沖這些風險。沒有太多的

tools. There are also other risks involved,  including transaction costs of converting.

工具。還涉及其他風險，包括轉換的交易成本。

And if read the law as it's written, it compels  people, merchants or anyone to to accept bitcoin,  

而如果按照法律規定來讀，它迫使人們、商人或任何人接受比特幣。

and they can't refuse that. But the  other point that you've mentioned is  

而且他們不能拒絕這一點。但你提到的另一點是

the fact that there is this kind of digital divide  to some extent in El Salvador. Given the fact that  

事實上，薩爾瓦多在某種程度上存在著這種數字鴻溝。鑑於以下事實

that bitcoin is seen as a digital format,  that can make things very difficult, right?

比特幣被看作是一種數字格式，這可以使事情變得非常困難，對嗎？

I think that's that's true. El Salvador is a  country where the majority of transactions to this  

我認為那是事實。薩爾瓦多是一個大部分交易都在這個國家的國家。

point have been cash based. Because the US dollar  is legal tender, that actually has meant that  

這一點一直是以現金為基礎的。由於美元是法定貨幣，這實際上意味著

the government has had to import and make  sure there's sufficient dollars available.  

政府不得不進口並確保有足夠的美元可用。

The u.s government you has facilitated. I mean,  the amount of dollars used in El Salvador are a  

美國政府為你提供了便利。我的意思是，在薩爾瓦多使用的美元數額是一個

drop in the bucket of the turnover of  the US dollar markets on a daily basis.  

與美元市場每天的營業額相比，這只是杯水車薪。

But that sort of transition, question marks of  what happens if cell service or wi-fi service goes  

但這種過渡，如果手機服務或Wi-Fi服務中斷，會發生什麼問題？

down. What about people losing access to perhaps  their accounts? There's all sorts of things that  

下來。人們失去對也許他們的賬戶的訪問怎麼辦？有各種各樣的事情

we see in other countries that I think could  be magnified if this was something that was  

我們在其他國家看到的情況，我認為如果這是在其他國家看到的情況，可能會被放大。

going to be legal tender, as opposed to just  an alternate means to say get money out of the  

將成為法定貨幣，而不是僅僅作為一種替代手段，說是把錢弄出來。

country. In El Salvador's case, I do think this is  really a story of trying to rebrand the country,  

國家。就薩爾瓦多而言，我確實認為這確實是一個試圖重塑國家形象的故事。

provide some buzz, but also try to perhaps  reduce some of the reliance on the US.  

提供一些嗡嗡聲，但也試圖也許減少對美國的一些依賴。

But I think it may create a whole number of other  problems while trying to alleviate one problem.

但我認為，在試圖緩解一個問題的同時，它可能會產生一大堆其他問題。

What would you say are some  of those other problems?

你說那些其他問題是什麼？

Sure so I think this question of connectivity  This question mark of whether there's going  

當然，所以我認為這個連通性的問題，這個是否會出現的問號。

to be local mining of bitcoin and what the  electricity bill would look like for that.  

在當地開採比特幣，其電費會是什麼樣子。

Question marks about whether this is going  to backdate past transactions versus future  

關於這是否會追溯過去的交易和未來的交易，要打上問號。

transactions. Question marks about what happens  if the volatility leads to significant losses.

交易。如果波動導致重大損失，會發生什麼情況，要打問號。

What would you say then are the main motivations  behind El Salvador's decisions there? Because you  

那麼你會說薩爾瓦多在那裡的決定背後的主要動機是什麼？因為你

mentioned an interesting one just now, and that  was around reducing reliance on the US dollar. Why  

剛才提到了一個有趣的問題，那就是圍繞減少對美元的依賴。為什麼

is that important, and what do you think some of  the other considerations or motivations are here?

這一點很重要嗎？你認為這裡的其他一些考慮或動機是什麼？

Sure. So El Salvador adopted the US  dollar more than, around 20 years ago,  

當然，所以薩爾瓦多在20多年前就採用了美元。

and they did that. They're not the only country  that uses the us dollar as legal tender.  

而他們做到了這一點。他們不是唯一使用美元作為法定貨幣的國家。

Countries like Ecuador do it as well. Other  countries peg to the US dollar: Hong kong,  

像厄瓜多爾這樣的國家也是如此。其他與美元掛鉤的國家：香港。

the Gulf states, just to name a few. All of  these countries in different ways are looking  

海灣國家，僅舉幾例。所有這些國家都在以不同的方式尋找

for currency stability that comes from sort of  pegging to an external hegemon or external entity.  

對於貨幣穩定來說，這來自於與外部霸主或外部實體的掛鉤。

Now we could look at it and say the dollar is not  super stable. It fluctuates against other major  

現在我們可以看一下，說美元不是超級穩定。它對其他主要貨幣的波動

currencies. It fluctuates against commodities.  It fluctuates against these issues. But a  

貨幣。它對商品波動。 它對這些問題進行波動。但是，一個

country like El Salvador, which had gone through  cycles of boom and bust and inflationary cycles,  

像薩爾瓦多這樣的國家，經歷了繁榮和蕭條的週期以及通貨膨脹的週期。

they were basically tying their hands and  saying we can't manage our own monetary  

他們基本上是在束縛自己的手腳，說我們不能管理自己的貨幣。

policy, and so we'll just sort of import the  monetary policy from the Fed. That can create  

政策，所以我們就從美聯儲引進貨幣政策。這可以創造

its own problems because the Salvadorian economic  cycle doesn't always line up with that of the US.  

它自己的問題，因為薩爾瓦多的經濟週期並不總是與美國的週期一致。

So you could have monetary tightening at a time  when the alternate was needed in El Salvador,  

是以，你可以在薩爾瓦多需要交替進行的時候進行貨幣緊縮。

but I digress. The main issue here I think is a  challenge that because of the reliance on the US  

但我想說的是。我認為這裡的主要問題是一個挑戰，因為對美國的依賴性

dollar, there's a need for strong correspondent  banking relationships with the US. There's a  

美元，有必要與美國建立強有力的代理銀行關係。有一個

need for intermittent importing of the physical  currency, particularly sincedollar bills do wear  

需要間歇性地進口實物貨幣，特別是在美元鈔票磨損的情況下。

out right over time. And as the US has more and  more of a focus and concern about anti-corruption.  

隨著時間的推移，我們會發現它是正確的。而隨著美國對反腐敗越來越重視和關注。

We've seen the White House label corruption  as a national security challenge. We have  

我們已經看到白宮將腐敗標榜為國家安全挑戰。我們有

several members of the government of El Salvador  under investigation for money laundering issues.  

薩爾瓦多政府的幾名成員因洗錢問題受到調查。

It strikes me that looking for alternate  ways of transferring funds, of transferring  

我認為，尋找替代性的資金轉移方式，轉移

wealth and generating wealth, that don't have  as much of a US exit would be attractive. The  

財富和創造財富，沒有那麼多的美國出口會有吸引力。的。

challenge is that the US Treasury has a long  arm, and we know that there's a lot of extra  

挑戰是，美國財政部有一個長臂，我們知道有很多額外的

territorial application of sanctions and  other measures, not only when you're using  

制裁和其他措施的領土適用性，不僅是在你使用

the US dollar. So I don't think that this move  to bitcoin necessarily removes these concerns.

美元。是以，我不認為這種向比特幣的轉移一定會消除這些擔憂。

Rachel, I do want to ask, is  there is there an economic  

瑞秋，我確實想問，是否有一個經濟上的問題？

argument here? I want to read you something  that President Bukele said. He said,  

在這裡爭論？我想給你們讀一下布克爾總統說的話。他說。

"Bitcoin has a market cap of 680 billion dollars.  If one percent of it is invested in El Salvador,  

"比特幣的市值為6800億美元。 如果將其中的百分之一投資於薩爾瓦多。

that would increase our GDP by 25 percent."  Obviously, that's not entirely correct,  

這將使我們的國內生產總值增加25%。" 很明顯，這並不完全正確。

but will this have effect on growth at all? Or can  it have an effect on growth at all in El Salvador?

但這是否會對增長產生影響？或者它對薩爾瓦多的增長是否有影響？

So i think it can have an impact. The question  mark goes back to, does adopting bitcoin as  

所以我認為它可以產生影響。問號又回到了，採用比特幣作為

a legal tender lead to new innovation  in bitcoin and blockchain technology?  

法定貨幣導致了比特幣和區塊鏈技術的新創新？

Does the government do other policies  perhaps to encourage bitcoin farming or  

政府是否做了其他政策，也許是為了鼓勵比特幣的種植或

that innovation? And we've seen other countries  in places like Bermuda and elsewhere, sort of  

這種創新？我們已經看到其他國家，如百慕大和其他地方，有點像

invest a lot in kind of digital sandbox.  Without adopting another currency, they've  

在某種數字沙盒中投入了大量資金。 沒有采用另一種貨幣，他們已經

been able to sort of develop this industry.  I think the key is it's not just about the  

已經能夠發展這個行業。 我認為關鍵是它不只是關於

adoption. It's about all the other infrastructure.  Just having a certain amount of bitcoin present in  

採用。這是關於所有其他的基礎設施。 只要有一定數量的比特幣存在於

the country doesn't necessarily increase GDP.  GDP is about what's produced in the country, so  

國家並不一定會增加GDP。 GDP是關於國內生產的東西，所以

the assets matter. The question is, are the assets  being deployed to build new real estate projects?  

資產很重要。問題是，這些資產是否被部署用於建設新的房地產項目？

Are people investing in new businesses? So I  would say that domestic economic policy, any sort  

人們是否投資於新的企業？所以我想說，國內經濟政策，任何形式的

of government investment projects, those probably  matter more than just the use of bitcoin. I mean,  

的政府投資項目，這些可能比僅僅使用比特幣更重要。我的意思是。

anything that makes it easier for foreign and  local investors to set up businesses, to create  

任何能使外國和當地投資者更容易建立企業、創建

value, that's going to be what the game changer  is moreso than just what's the legal tender.

價值，這將是改變遊戲規則的因素，而不僅僅是什麼是法定貨幣。

Great. Rachel, do you think there are other  countries at this point looking at this?  

很好。瑞秋，你認為在這一點上還有其他國家在關注這個問題嗎？

Can you see any countries around  the world that might find bitcoin  

你能看到世界上有哪些國家可能會發現比特幣

an attractive option also to make it legal tender?

讓它成為法定貨幣也是一個有吸引力的選擇？

Sure. So there are. I've heard of some other  countries that are considering it, particularly  

當然，所以有。我聽說其他一些國家正在考慮這個問題，特別是

some of El Salvador's neighbors. In fact, there  does seem to be a little bit of copycat sort of  

薩爾瓦多的一些鄰國。事實上，似乎確實有一點山寨的味道。

activity. I think in general, what i think we'll  see more of, is countries using and adopting  

活動。我認為一般來說，我認為我們將看到更多的是國家使用和採用

blockchain technology and perhaps developing their  own digital assets. We've had a big increase,  

區塊鏈技術，也許是開發他們自己的數字資產。我們已經有了很大的增長。

and I'm sure you've talked about it a lot on  the podcast, we've had a big increase in central  

我相信你在播客中已經談了很多，我們在中央電視臺有一個很大的增長。

bank digital currencies interest, obviously pilot  projects. That lowers transactions costs. It also  

銀行數字貨幣的興趣，顯然是試點項目。這降低了交易成本。它也

probably increases the ability of governments  to monitor activities. For some countries, that  

可能會增加政府監測活動的能力。對一些國家來說，這

might be a design feature, not a flaw. I could see  more countries wanting to make it easier for their  

這可能是一個設計特點，而不是一個缺陷。我可以看到更多的國家想讓他們的

population to engage in financial transactions,  and lower those costs, reduce some of those  

吸引民眾參與金融交易，並降低這些成本，減少其中一些

transactions costs, and while the government  and the central bank still maintains a degree  

交易成本，而政府和中央銀行仍然保持一定程度的

of control over capital inflows. So I definitely  see that happening more with large countries,  

對資本流入的控制。是以，我肯定看到這種情況更多地發生在大國身上。

but even some of the smaller ones, you know  moderate size emerging markets, I see them