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  • On March 30th 2021, the World Health Organization announced the results of an investigation

    2021年3月30日,世界衛生組織宣佈了一項調查的結果

  • into the origins of Covid-19 after a field visit to Wuhan, China.

    在對中國武漢進行實地考察後,對Covid-19的起源進行了研究。

  • They were inconclusive.

    他們沒有結論。

  • The 34-strong investigative team declared it was most likely that the virus was transmitted

    由34人組成的調查小組宣佈,病毒很可能是通過以下方式傳播的

  • from animals to humans, while the theory that it leaked from a laboratory was deemedextremely unlikely.”

    從動物到人類,而從實驗室洩漏的理論被認為是 "極其不可能的"。

  • The results prompted 14 nations, including Australia, to call for further investigations.

    這些結果促使包括澳洲在內的14個國家呼籲進行進一步調查。

  • Following this response, China, which has been Australia's largest trading partner

    在這一回應之後,一直是澳洲最大貿易伙伴的中國

  • for over a decade, placed an unprecedented number of tariffs and restrictions on several

    十多年來,美國政府對一些國家和地區徵收了前所未有的關稅和限制。

  • of the nation's goods.

    的國家的貨物。

  • China then retaliated further, 'indefinitely' suspending economic dialogue, a sign of the

    中國隨後進一步報復,"無限期 "暫停經濟對話,這是一個跡象。

  • escalating tensions between both countries.

    兩國之間的緊張局勢不斷升級。

  • For many people watching, one of the questions they will have is:

    對於許多人來說,他們會有的一個問題是。

  • "There are so many trade wars, why should we care about this one?"

    "有那麼多的貿易戰,我們為什麼要關心這一場?"

  • The thing that you should really be thinking is, what if

    你真正應該考慮的是,如果

  • my sovereignty decides that I have to make a particular decision and then

    我的主權決定,我必須做出一個特定的決定,然後

  • China institutes similar trade actions against me?

    中國對我採取了類似的貿易行動?

  • So, what does this clash mean for Australia, China and the future of global trade?

    那麼,這場衝突對澳洲、中國和全球貿易的未來意味著什麼?

  • Before China began to open its economy in 1978, the Asian country was largely rural,

    在中國於1978年開始開放經濟之前,這個亞洲國家大部分是農村。

  • and its goods formed less than 1% of world trade.

    而其商品在世界貿易中的佔比不到1%。

  • Hello, Will.

    你好,威爾。

  • Hi, Timothyna.

    嗨,蒂莫西娜。

  • Haw are you?

    霍是你嗎?

  • I'm very well, thank you.

    我很好,謝謝你。

  • Will Koulouris is based in Sydney, where he covers Australia and New Zealand for CNBC.

    Will Koulouris在雪梨工作,為CNBC報道澳洲和紐西蘭。

  • When did the close relations between Australia and China start?

    澳洲和中國之間的密切關係始於何時?

  • Gough Whitlam, one of our former Prime Ministers back in the 70s,

    高夫-惠特拉姆(Gough Whitlam),我們在70年代的一位前總理。

  • started engaging with China before Nixon went there.

    在尼克松去中國之前就開始與中國接觸。

  • The Australian leader's visit to China was a milestone in Australia-China relations,

    澳洲領導人對中國的訪問是澳中關係的一個里程碑。

  • and is credited with the rapid expansion of trade between the two countries, as well as

    並對兩國間貿易的迅速擴大以及對中國的發展作出了貢獻。

  • prompting other Western countries to follow suit.

    促使其他西方國家紛紛效仿。

  • China and Australia, from then on, maintained a strong relationship in terms of

    從此,中國和澳洲保持著牢固的關係,在

  • the trading relationship; it wasn't anything like it is now.

    貿易關係;它並不像現在這樣。

  • Australia benefited from China's opening to foreign trade.

    澳洲從中國的對外貿易開放中受益。

  • Just look at this graph.

    看看這個圖就知道了。

  • The country's share of Australia's exported goods rose steadily in the 1970s and exponentially

    該國在澳洲出口商品中的份額在20世紀70年代穩步上升,並呈指數級增長。

  • by the 21st century.

    到了21世紀。

  • By 2009, China's total imports from Australia were worth more than $33 billion, overtaking

    到2009年,中國從澳洲的進口總值超過了330億美元,超過了

  • Japan to become the largest importer of Australian goods.

    日本成為澳洲商品的最大進口國。

  • China has been Australia's largest trading partner ever since and accounts for more than

    此後,中國一直是澳洲最大的貿易伙伴,在澳洲的貿易中佔比超過50%。

  • 26% of the country's trade.

    佔全國貿易的26%。

  • China's insatiable demand for Australia's natural resources was one of the main reasons

    中國對澳洲自然資源貪得無厭的需求是主要原因之一

  • why it had a 29-year run without a single recession.

    為什麼它有一個29年的運行,沒有一次衰退。

  • In fact, Australia was the only major economy to avoid a recession during the global financial

    事實上,澳洲是唯一一個在全球金融危機期間避免衰退的主要經濟體。

  • crisis in 2008.

    2008年的危機。

  • Australia's higher education system is also heavily reliant on fees from Chinese students.

    澳洲的高等教育體系也嚴重依賴中國學生的學費。

  • They account for about 40% of international students in the country, of which 160,000

    他們約佔該國國際學生的40%,其中有16萬名

  • are enrolled in their universities.

    在他們的大學就讀的學生。

  • China and Australia need each other.

    中國和澳洲需要彼此。

  • There's always something that China could do if they really wanted to.

    如果中國真的想做,總有一些事情是他們可以做的。

  • For example, with iron ore, they could, mine the 20 billion tons of iron ore that they've

    例如,對於鐵礦石,他們可以,開採他們所擁有的200億噸的鐵礦石。

  • got in China. That are just reserves in the ground.

    在中國得到的。這只是在地下的儲備。

  • It's lower grade, it's going to cause more emissions when you're trying to use it to

    它的等級較低,當你試圖使用它時,會造成更多的排放。

  • make steel. But if they really wanted to, they could.

    製造鋼鐵。但如果他們真的想,他們可以。

  • But it would cost them and the economic costs would outweigh any kind of political advantage

    但這將使他們付出代價,經濟成本將超過任何形式的政治優勢。

  • that you're going to get by not having that relationship.

    你沒有這種關係就會得到的。

  • Those ties deepened in 2014 after the signing of a major free trade agreement.

    在2014年簽署了一項重要的自由貿易協定後,這些關係得到了深化。

  • It meant that 95% of major Australian goods including coal, barley, wine and beef could

    這意味著澳洲95%的主要商品,包括煤炭、大麥、葡萄酒和牛肉都可以

  • enter the country tariff-free.

    免關稅進入該國。

  • Everybody was on a high here in Australia.

    在澳洲,每個人都處於興奮狀態。

  • When it came to the Australia-China partnership, there was all of these promises of the future

    在談到澳中夥伴關係時,有所有這些對未來的承諾

  • riches that Australia was going to garner by this increased cooperation and strategic

    澳洲通過加強合作和戰略合作將獲得的財富。

  • economic partnership with China because we had just signed the free trade agreement.

    與中國的經濟夥伴關係,因為我們剛剛簽署了自由貿易協定。

  • Thanks to that deal, Australia enjoyed a unique position that many countries would crave:

    由於這項交易,澳洲享有許多國家都渴望的獨特地位。

  • a trade surplus with China.

    與中國的貿易順差。

  • That year, the country exported goods worth more than $80 billion to China while importing

    這一年,該國向中國出口了價值超過800億美元的貨物,同時進口了

  • nearly $47 billion, or a trade surplus of nearly $35 billion.

    近470億美元,或近350億美元的貿易順差。

  • There was always that strong relationship, and it was just all of this political mess

    總是有那種強有力的關係,而這只是所有的政治混亂。

  • that's happened in the past three years, that's put a dampener on the current relationship.

    在過去三年中發生的事情,對目前的關係產生了影響。

  • But then, signs of a fraying relationship and differing values began to emerge.

    但隨後,關係破裂的跡象和不同的價值觀開始出現。

  • China claimed Australia had been discriminating against Huawei, by blocking its participation

    中國聲稱澳洲一直在歧視華為,阻止其參與。

  • in the country's 5G network in 2018.

    在2018年,該國的5G網絡。

  • Australia was the first country to ban Huawei, concerned that the Chinese tech giant would

    澳洲是第一個禁止華為的國家,擔心這家中國科技巨頭會

  • divulge data to the government.

    向政府洩露數據。

  • Huawei has repeatedly denied these claims.

    華為多次否認了這些說法。

  • There were a lot of little other things that

    還有很多其他的小事情

  • were happening on the edges at the same time, in terms of foreign investments being denied.

    同時,在外國投資被拒絕的情況下,在邊緣地區也發生了這種情況。

  • There were a number of big investment opportunities that Australia had turned down on the basis

    有一些大的投資機會被澳洲拒絕了,理由是

  • of the foreign ownership laws here in Australia.

    澳洲的外國所有權法律。

  • And that was before Huawei.

    而這是在華為之前。

  • It's a catalyst, but it's not necessarily the only event that was happening at the same time.

    它是一個催化劑,但它不一定是同時發生的唯一事件。

  • The rift escalated when Australia joined other countries to demand further investigations

    當澳洲與其他國家一起要求進一步調查時,裂痕升級了。

  • into the origins of the coronavirus.

    對冠狀病毒的起源的研究。

  • What China was contending is that Australia would have given them a little bit of a heads up,

    中國所爭辯的是,澳洲會給他們一點提示。

  • told them this is what we're planning to say.

    告訴他們這就是我們打算說的內容。

  • And then obviously, China is going to be prepared for the media frenzy that's going to result from this.

    然後很明顯,中國將準備好應對由此產生的媒體狂熱。

  • China responded by placing tariffs and restrictions on Australia's major exports including seafood,

    中國的迴應是對澳洲的主要出口產品包括海產品徵收關稅和限制。

  • beef, wine, coal and barley.

    牛肉、酒、煤和大麥。

  • These targeted exports were worth $25 billion in 2019, or 1.3% of Australia's GDP.

    這些目標出口在2019年價值250億澳元,佔澳洲GDP的1.3%。

  • Still, the Australian government stood by its decision and even cancelled two deals

    儘管如此,澳大利亞政府仍堅持其決定,甚至取消了兩項交易

  • under China's Belt and Road Initiative.

    根據中國的 "一帶一路 "倡議。

  • China then hit back, accusing the government of having a 'Cold War' mindset, announcing

    中國隨後進行反擊,指責政府有 "冷戰 "思維,宣佈

  • it would no longer engage in economic dialogue in May 2021.

    它將在2021年5月不再參與經濟對話。

  • So, when it comes to the official line, or the view of the Australian Government, what

    是以,當涉及到官方路線,或澳大利亞政府的觀點時,什麼是

  • they're saying is, we just want to get our Chinese counterparts on the phone, we want

    他們說的是,我們只是想讓我們的中國同行接電話,我們想

  • to be able to have these frank discussions with them

    能夠與他們進行這些坦率的討論

  • and talk through the issues we are currently facing.

    並談及我們目前面臨的問題。

  • China isn't doing that. And they haven't done that for over a year now.

    中國並沒有這樣做。而且他們已經一年多沒有這麼做了。

  • They won't discuss anything other than on the diplomatic level, so ambassador to ambassador.

    除了在外交層面上,他們不會討論任何事情,所以大使對大使。

  • Many of the targeted industries have been affected.

    許多目標行業都受到了影響。

  • Since late 2020, the total value of Australian exports to China dropped by more than $10 billion.

    自2020年底以來,澳洲對中國的出口總值下降了100多億美元。

  • As the economic pressure began to sink in, many Australian farmers pleaded with their

    隨著經濟壓力開始下降,許多澳洲農民懇求他們的

  • government to restore trade ties with China.

    政府恢復與中國的貿易關係。

  • It was a wakeup call for Australian exporters to diversify, and many managed to blunt the

    這給澳洲出口商敲響了多樣化的警鐘,許多出口商設法鈍化了他們的產品。

  • impact of China's trade pressure by opening new markets in the latter part of 2020.

    通過在2020年下半年開放新的市場來應對中國貿易壓力的影響。

  • Coal exports to the rest of the world, for example, were $9.5 billion higher than before

    例如,對世界其他地區的煤炭出口比以前增加了95億美元

  • the ban, helped by offsets from new markets, notably India.

    在新市場,特別是印度的抵消作用的幫助下,該禁令得到了執行。

  • Even though the annualized value of Australian exports to China fell by $10 billion since

    儘管澳洲對華出口的年化價值自2008年以來下降了100億美元。

  • late 2020, overall, the annualized value of these goods to other markets rose by $14 billion.

    2020年末,總體而言,這些貨物對其他市場的年化價值增加了140億美元。

  • So, Will what's next?

    那麼,威爾的下一步是什麼?

  • A lot of the tensions we're having with China plays well in the domestic front.

    我們與中國的很多緊張關係在國內方面發揮得很好。

  • The path the government is on right now is to strengthen Australia's national sovereignty.

    政府現在走的路是要加強澳洲的國家主權。

  • It's going to be a continual policy stance that's more in tune with the other Western nations.

    這將是一個持續的政策立場,與其他西方國家更加合拍。

  • Perhaps what's next for China is a softening.

    也許中國接下來要做的是軟化。

  • We saw a couple of weeks ago Xi Jinping say he wants to soften China's stance when it comes to the rest of the world.

    我們看到幾周前,習近平說他希望在涉及世界其他國家時軟化中國的立場。

  • If enough of the other countries are going: 'Hey, wait a minute, we don't like where this is going,

    如果其他國家有足夠多的人去:'嘿,等一下,我們不喜歡這樣的結果。

  • because Australia may be one example but what if we're next?'

    因為澳洲可能是一個例子,但如果我們是下一個呢?

  • Australia is also counting on the World Trade Organization to act as a mediator, and to

    澳洲還指望世界貿易組織發揮調解人的作用,並且

  • calm the tensions that have brewed for more than five years.

    平息已經醞釀了五年多的緊張局勢。

  • But with both governments unlikely to back down soon, the trade war seems set to continue.

    但由於兩國政府不太可能很快退讓,貿易戰似乎將繼續下去。

  • I gotta snap that, that was deep.

    我得加快腳步,這很深刻。

On March 30th 2021, the World Health Organization announced the results of an investigation

2021年3月30日,世界衛生組織宣佈了一項調查的結果

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澳洲和中國的貿易關係是如何破裂的 | CNBC解讀 (How Australia and China’s trade relationship broke down | CNBC Explains)

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