into the origins of Covid-19 after a field visit to Wuhan, China.

在對中國武漢進行實地考察後，對Covid-19的起源進行了研究。

They were inconclusive.

他們沒有結論。

The 34-strong investigative team declared it was most likely that the virus was transmitted

由34人組成的調查小組宣佈，病毒很可能是通過以下方式傳播的

from animals to humans, while the theory that it leaked from a laboratory was deemed “extremely unlikely.”

從動物到人類，而從實驗室洩漏的理論被認為是 "極其不可能的"。

The results prompted 14 nations, including Australia, to call for further investigations.

這些結果促使包括澳洲在內的14個國家呼籲進行進一步調查。

Following this response, China, which has been Australia's largest trading partner

在這一回應之後，一直是澳洲最大貿易伙伴的中國

for over a decade, placed an unprecedented number of tariffs and restrictions on several

十多年來，美國政府對一些國家和地區徵收了前所未有的關稅和限制。

of the nation's goods.

的國家的貨物。

China then retaliated further, 'indefinitely' suspending economic dialogue, a sign of the

中國隨後進一步報復，"無限期 "暫停經濟對話，這是一個跡象。

escalating tensions between both countries.

兩國之間的緊張局勢不斷升級。

For many people watching, one of the questions they will have is:

對於許多人來說，他們會有的一個問題是。

"There are so many trade wars, why should we care about this one?"

"有那麼多的貿易戰，我們為什麼要關心這一場？"

The thing that you should really be thinking is, what if

你真正應該考慮的是，如果

my sovereignty decides that I have to make a particular decision and then

我的主權決定，我必須做出一個特定的決定，然後

China institutes similar trade actions against me?

中國對我採取了類似的貿易行動？

So, what does this clash mean for Australia, China and the future of global trade?

那麼，這場衝突對澳洲、中國和全球貿易的未來意味著什麼？

Before China began to open its economy in 1978, the Asian country was largely rural,

在中國於1978年開始開放經濟之前，這個亞洲國家大部分是農村。

and its goods formed less than 1% of world trade.

而其商品在世界貿易中的佔比不到1%。

Hello, Will.

你好，威爾。

Hi, Timothyna.

嗨，蒂莫西娜。

Haw are you?

霍是你嗎？

I'm very well, thank you.

我很好，謝謝你。

Will Koulouris is based in Sydney, where he covers Australia and New Zealand for CNBC.

Will Koulouris在雪梨工作，為CNBC報道澳洲和紐西蘭。

When did the close relations between Australia and China start?

澳洲和中國之間的密切關係始於何時？

Gough Whitlam, one of our former Prime Ministers back in the 70s,

高夫-惠特拉姆（Gough Whitlam），我們在70年代的一位前總理。

started engaging with China before Nixon went there.

在尼克松去中國之前就開始與中國接觸。

The Australian leader's visit to China was a milestone in Australia-China relations,

澳洲領導人對中國的訪問是澳中關係的一個里程碑。

and is credited with the rapid expansion of trade between the two countries, as well as

並對兩國間貿易的迅速擴大以及對中國的發展作出了貢獻。

prompting other Western countries to follow suit.

促使其他西方國家紛紛效仿。

China and Australia, from then on, maintained a strong relationship in terms of

從此，中國和澳洲保持著牢固的關係，在

the trading relationship; it wasn't anything like it is now.

貿易關係；它並不像現在這樣。

Australia benefited from China's opening to foreign trade.

澳洲從中國的對外貿易開放中受益。

Just look at this graph.

看看這個圖就知道了。

The country's share of Australia's exported goods rose steadily in the 1970s and exponentially

該國在澳洲出口商品中的份額在20世紀70年代穩步上升，並呈指數級增長。

by the 21st century.

到了21世紀。

By 2009, China's total imports from Australia were worth more than $33 billion, overtaking

到2009年，中國從澳洲的進口總值超過了330億美元，超過了

Japan to become the largest importer of Australian goods.

日本成為澳洲商品的最大進口國。

China has been Australia's largest trading partner ever since and accounts for more than

此後，中國一直是澳洲最大的貿易伙伴，在澳洲的貿易中佔比超過50%。

26% of the country's trade.

佔全國貿易的26%。

China's insatiable demand for Australia's natural resources was one of the main reasons

中國對澳洲自然資源貪得無厭的需求是主要原因之一

why it had a 29-year run without a single recession.

為什麼它有一個29年的運行，沒有一次衰退。

In fact, Australia was the only major economy to avoid a recession during the global financial

事實上，澳洲是唯一一個在全球金融危機期間避免衰退的主要經濟體。

crisis in 2008.

2008年的危機。

Australia's higher education system is also heavily reliant on fees from Chinese students.

澳洲的高等教育體系也嚴重依賴中國學生的學費。

They account for about 40% of international students in the country, of which 160,000

他們約佔該國國際學生的40%，其中有16萬名

are enrolled in their universities.

在他們的大學就讀的學生。

China and Australia need each other.

中國和澳洲需要彼此。

There's always something that China could do if they really wanted to.

如果中國真的想做，總有一些事情是他們可以做的。

For example, with iron ore, they could, mine the 20 billion tons of iron ore that they've

例如，對於鐵礦石，他們可以，開採他們所擁有的200億噸的鐵礦石。

got in China. That are just reserves in the ground.

在中國得到的。這只是在地下的儲備。

It's lower grade, it's going to cause more emissions when you're trying to use it to

它的等級較低，當你試圖使用它時，會造成更多的排放。

make steel. But if they really wanted to, they could.

製造鋼鐵。但如果他們真的想，他們可以。

But it would cost them and the economic costs would outweigh any kind of political advantage

但這將使他們付出代價，經濟成本將超過任何形式的政治優勢。

that you're going to get by not having that relationship.

你沒有這種關係就會得到的。

Those ties deepened in 2014 after the signing of a major free trade agreement.

在2014年簽署了一項重要的自由貿易協定後，這些關係得到了深化。

It meant that 95% of major Australian goods including coal, barley, wine and beef could

這意味著澳洲95%的主要商品，包括煤炭、大麥、葡萄酒和牛肉都可以

enter the country tariff-free.

免關稅進入該國。

Everybody was on a high here in Australia.

在澳洲，每個人都處於興奮狀態。

When it came to the Australia-China partnership, there was all of these promises of the future

在談到澳中夥伴關係時，有所有這些對未來的承諾

riches that Australia was going to garner by this increased cooperation and strategic

澳洲通過加強合作和戰略合作將獲得的財富。

economic partnership with China because we had just signed the free trade agreement.

與中國的經濟夥伴關係，因為我們剛剛簽署了自由貿易協定。

Thanks to that deal, Australia enjoyed a unique position that many countries would crave:

由於這項交易，澳洲享有許多國家都渴望的獨特地位。

a trade surplus with China.

與中國的貿易順差。

That year, the country exported goods worth more than $80 billion to China while importing

這一年，該國向中國出口了價值超過800億美元的貨物，同時進口了

nearly $47 billion, or a trade surplus of nearly $35 billion.

近470億美元，或近350億美元的貿易順差。

There was always that strong relationship, and it was just all of this political mess

總是有那種強有力的關係，而這只是所有的政治混亂。

that's happened in the past three years, that's put a dampener on the current relationship.

在過去三年中發生的事情，對目前的關係產生了影響。

But then, signs of a fraying relationship and differing values began to emerge.

但隨後，關係破裂的跡象和不同的價值觀開始出現。

China claimed Australia had been discriminating against Huawei, by blocking its participation

中國聲稱澳洲一直在歧視華為，阻止其參與。

in the country's 5G network in 2018.

在2018年，該國的5G網絡。

Australia was the first country to ban Huawei, concerned that the Chinese tech giant would

澳洲是第一個禁止華為的國家，擔心這家中國科技巨頭會

divulge data to the government.

向政府洩露數據。

Huawei has repeatedly denied these claims.

華為多次否認了這些說法。

There were a lot of little other things that

還有很多其他的小事情

were happening on the edges at the same time, in terms of foreign investments being denied.

同時，在外國投資被拒絕的情況下，在邊緣地區也發生了這種情況。

There were a number of big investment opportunities that Australia had turned down on the basis

有一些大的投資機會被澳洲拒絕了，理由是

of the foreign ownership laws here in Australia.

澳洲的外國所有權法律。

And that was before Huawei.

而這是在華為之前。

It's a catalyst, but it's not necessarily the only event that was happening at the same time.

它是一個催化劑，但它不一定是同時發生的唯一事件。

The rift escalated when Australia joined other countries to demand further investigations

當澳洲與其他國家一起要求進一步調查時，裂痕升級了。

into the origins of the coronavirus.

對冠狀病毒的起源的研究。

What China was contending is that Australia would have given them a little bit of a heads up,

中國所爭辯的是，澳洲會給他們一點提示。

told them this is what we're planning to say.

告訴他們這就是我們打算說的內容。

And then obviously, China is going to be prepared for the media frenzy that's going to result from this.

然後很明顯，中國將準備好應對由此產生的媒體狂熱。

China responded by placing tariffs and restrictions on Australia's major exports including seafood,

中國的迴應是對澳洲的主要出口產品包括海產品徵收關稅和限制。

beef, wine, coal and barley.

牛肉、酒、煤和大麥。

These targeted exports were worth $25 billion in 2019, or 1.3% of Australia's GDP.

這些目標出口在2019年價值250億澳元，佔澳洲GDP的1.3%。

Still, the Australian government stood by its decision and even cancelled two deals

儘管如此，澳大利亞政府仍堅持其決定，甚至取消了兩項交易

under China's Belt and Road Initiative.

根據中國的 "一帶一路 "倡議。

China then hit back, accusing the government of having a 'Cold War' mindset, announcing

中國隨後進行反擊，指責政府有 "冷戰 "思維，宣佈

it would no longer engage in economic dialogue in May 2021.

它將在2021年5月不再參與經濟對話。

So, when it comes to the official line, or the view of the Australian Government, what

是以，當涉及到官方路線，或澳大利亞政府的觀點時，什麼是

they're saying is, we just want to get our Chinese counterparts on the phone, we want

他們說的是，我們只是想讓我們的中國同行接電話，我們想

to be able to have these frank discussions with them

能夠與他們進行這些坦率的討論

and talk through the issues we are currently facing.

並談及我們目前面臨的問題。

China isn't doing that. And they haven't done that for over a year now.

中國並沒有這樣做。而且他們已經一年多沒有這麼做了。

They won't discuss anything other than on the diplomatic level, so ambassador to ambassador.

除了在外交層面上，他們不會討論任何事情，所以大使對大使。

Many of the targeted industries have been affected.

許多目標行業都受到了影響。

Since late 2020, the total value of Australian exports to China dropped by more than $10 billion.

自2020年底以來，澳洲對中國的出口總值下降了100多億美元。

As the economic pressure began to sink in, many Australian farmers pleaded with their

隨著經濟壓力開始下降，許多澳洲農民懇求他們的

government to restore trade ties with China.

政府恢復與中國的貿易關係。

It was a wakeup call for Australian exporters to diversify, and many managed to blunt the

這給澳洲出口商敲響了多樣化的警鐘，許多出口商設法鈍化了他們的產品。

impact of China's trade pressure by opening new markets in the latter part of 2020.

通過在2020年下半年開放新的市場來應對中國貿易壓力的影響。

Coal exports to the rest of the world, for example, were $9.5 billion higher than before

例如，對世界其他地區的煤炭出口比以前增加了95億美元

the ban, helped by offsets from new markets, notably India.

在新市場，特別是印度的抵消作用的幫助下，該禁令得到了執行。

Even though the annualized value of Australian exports to China fell by $10 billion since

儘管澳洲對華出口的年化價值自2008年以來下降了100億美元。

late 2020, overall, the annualized value of these goods to other markets rose by $14 billion.

2020年末，總體而言，這些貨物對其他市場的年化價值增加了140億美元。

So, Will what's next?

那麼，威爾的下一步是什麼？

A lot of the tensions we're having with China plays well in the domestic front.

我們與中國的很多緊張關係在國內方面發揮得很好。

The path the government is on right now is to strengthen Australia's national sovereignty.

政府現在走的路是要加強澳洲的國家主權。

It's going to be a continual policy stance that's more in tune with the other Western nations.

這將是一個持續的政策立場，與其他西方國家更加合拍。

Perhaps what's next for China is a softening.

也許中國接下來要做的是軟化。

We saw a couple of weeks ago Xi Jinping say he wants to soften China's stance when it comes to the rest of the world.

我們看到幾周前，習近平說他希望在涉及世界其他國家時軟化中國的立場。

If enough of the other countries are going: 'Hey, wait a minute, we don't like where this is going,

如果其他國家有足夠多的人去：'嘿，等一下，我們不喜歡這樣的結果。

because Australia may be one example but what if we're next?'

因為澳洲可能是一個例子，但如果我們是下一個呢？

Australia is also counting on the World Trade Organization to act as a mediator, and to

澳洲還指望世界貿易組織發揮調解人的作用，並且

calm the tensions that have brewed for more than five years.

平息已經醞釀了五年多的緊張局勢。

But with both governments unlikely to back down soon, the trade war seems set to continue.

但由於兩國政府不太可能很快退讓，貿易戰似乎將繼續下去。

I gotta snap that, that was deep.

我得加快腳步，這很深刻。