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  • We're surrounded by statistical claims,

    我們被統計學上的主張所包圍。

  • whether it's a striking graph going viral on social media,

    無論是在社交媒體上瘋傳的引人注目的圖表。

  • a politician claiming that life has gotten 62% better

    一位政治家聲稱生活已經好了62%。

  • while they've been in office,

    當他們在任時。

  • or just something everyday, like a piece of economic data,

    或者只是一些日常的東西,比如一個經濟數據。

  • the numbers are everywhere.

    這些數字無處不在。

  • So what should we think about them?

    那麼,我們應該如何看待他們呢?

  • Here's one approach -

    這裡有一個方法--

  • don't trust any of them.

    不相信他們中的任何一個。

  • Mutter something about

    喃喃自語,說什麼

  • lies, damned lies and statistics.

    謊言、該死的謊言和統計數據。

  • Or joke that 98% of statistics are made up on the spot.

    或者開玩笑說,98%的統計數據是當場編造的。

  • That seems smart.

    這似乎很聰明。

  • After all, nobody likes to be taken for a fool.

    畢竟,沒有人喜歡被當做傻瓜。

  • But we can't just reject all statistics equally.

    但我們不能一視同仁地拒絕所有的統計數據。

  • Statistics can show us things about the world

    統計數據可以向我們展示關於世界的東西

  • that we can't perceive in any other way.

    我們無法以任何其他方式感知的。

  • Instead, we have to exert a bit of brain power

    相反,我們必鬚髮揮一點腦力的作用

  • to figure out what is true and what is not.

    以弄清什麼是真的,什麼是假的。

  • That sounds hard, but perhaps it's not as hard as you might think.

    這聽起來很難,但也許並不像你想象的那麼難。

  • So here are three easy rules

    是以,這裡有三個簡單的規則

  • to make statistics add up -

    以使統計數字相加 -

  • the three Cs of data wisdom.

    數據智慧的三個C。

  • First, be calm.

    首先,要冷靜。

  • Most statistics come packaged up with emotional baggage.

    大多數統計數據都被包裝成了情感包袱。

  • They're supposed to make us angry or joyful or afraid.

    它們應該讓我們憤怒、喜悅或恐懼。

  • Staggering deficits, shocking rates of crime,

    驚人的赤字,令人震驚的犯罪率。

  • inspiring sums raised for good causes.

    為公益事業籌集的資金令人鼓舞。

  • These emotions are why numbers go viral on social media,

    這些情緒是數字在社交媒體上走紅的原因。

  • the reason they end up in the headlines.

    他們最終出現在頭條新聞中的原因。

  • There's nothing wrong with feeling emotions,

    感受情緒並沒有錯。

  • but they don't help us think clearly.

    但它們並不能幫助我們思考清楚。

  • So before you share a claim that has you hot under the collar,

    是以,在你分享一個讓你熱血沸騰的主張之前。

  • take a moment to notice your instinctive reaction -

    花點時間注意你的本能反應------。

  • from rage, to denial, to vindication.

    從憤怒,到否認,到平反。

  • Once you've noticed it, look at the statistic again.

    一旦你注意到這一點,再看看這個統計數字。

  • It may seem different now.

    現在看來可能有所不同。

  • Second, get context.

    第二,瞭解背景。

  • For example, when the UK Health Secretary said in 2020

    例如,當英國衛生部長在2020年表示

  • that the NHS would save £100 million over five years

    國家醫療服務系統將在五年內節省1億英鎊。

  • if everyone who was overweight lost a few pounds.

    如果每個超重的人都減掉幾磅。

  • What should we make of that claim?

    我們應該如何看待這種說法?

  • What does he mean by overweight, for example?

    例如,他所說的超重是什麼意思?

  • And what evidence does he have to support this claim?

    他又有什麼證據來支持這一說法?

  • But the most important piece of context

    但最重要的一塊背景是

  • is simply to understand whether £100 million is a big number.

    是簡單地瞭解1億英鎊是否是一個大數字。

  • It sounds big.

    這聽起來很大。

  • But there are 67 million people in the UK,

    但英國有6700萬人口。

  • so £100 million is just £1.50 each.

    是以,1億英鎊只是每個人1.5英鎊。

  • You can figure that out on your phone.

    你可以在你的手機上計算出來。

  • Now remember that £1.50 each

    現在記住,每個人1.5英鎊

  • was spread across five years.

    分佈在五年內。

  • So that's 30 pence

    所以那是30便士

  • per person, per year.

    每人每年。

  • The Health Secretary then said

    衛生部長接著說

  • that if every overweight person lost some weight,

    如果每個超重的人都減輕一些體重。

  • the NHS would save the equivalent of 30 pence per UK resident per year.

    NHS將為每個英國居民每年節省相當於30便士的費用。

  • Not a lot.

    不是很多。

  • Statistics can be a very complex subject,

    統計學可能是一個非常複雜的學科。

  • but you can get a long way with simple questions about context.

    但你可以通過有關背景的簡單問題走很遠的路。

  • What's being measured here?

    這裡測量的是什麼?

  • Is it going up or going down?

    它是上升還是下降?

  • Is it big or small?

    它是大還是小?

  • What's the source of the claim?

    該說法的來源是什麼?

  • You don't need a lot of fancy maths, just a search engine,

    你不需要很多花哨的數學知識,只需要一個搜索引擎。

  • the back of an envelope, and a curious mind.

    一個信封的背面,以及一顆好奇的心。

  • Which brings me to the third important principle - be curious.

    這使我想到第三個重要原則--要有好奇心。

  • When we use a number as a weapon in an argument,

    當我們在爭論中使用一個數字作為武器時。

  • or a prop for our preconceptions,

    或者說是我們先入為主的一個道具。

  • we learn nothing.

    我們什麼也沒學到。

  • Instead we should think about statistics

    相反,我們應該思考統計學問題

  • as a tool to understand the world,

    作為了解世界的一個工具。

  • like a telescope for an astronomer.

    就像天文學家的望遠鏡。

  • Ask yourself what a statistical claim

    捫心自問,統計學上的主張是什麼?

  • is really telling you about the world

    是真正告訴你這個世界

  • and what questions it inspires.

    以及它激發了什麼問題。

  • Of course we don't have time to do all this for every claim we see,

    當然,我們沒有時間為我們看到的每一項索賠做這一切。

  • so a final habit is to ask yourself whether the source

    是以,最後的習慣是問自己:來源是什麼?

  • of a statistical claim is respecting the three Cs.

    統計學上的主張是尊重三個C的。

  • A good journalist will help you be calm, will give you context,

    一個好的記者會幫助你冷靜,會給你提供背景。

  • and will feed your curiosity.

    並將滿足你的好奇心。

  • A viral 'gotcha' circulating on Twitter or WhatsApp

    在Twitter或WhatsApp上流傳的病毒性 "騙局"。

  • will often do the opposite.

    往往會起到相反的作用。

  • We shouldn't just accept statistics unthinkingly,

    我們不應該只是不假思索地接受統計數據。

  • but neither should we dismiss them without thinking either.

    但我們也不應該不假思索地否定它們。

  • Three simple habits - be calm, get context, and be curious -

    三個簡單的習慣--冷靜、瞭解背景和好奇心

  • can help the world add up.

    可以幫助世界加起來。

We're surrounded by statistical claims,

我們被統計學上的主張所包圍。

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B1 中級 中文 統計 數據 主張 超重 背景 數字

什麼時候可以相信統計數據?| BBC思想 (When can you trust statistics? | BBC Ideas)

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    Summer 發佈於 2021 年 06 月 17 日
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