Name: 什麼時候可以相信統計數據？| BBC思想 (When can you trust statistics? | BBC Ideas)
Uploaded: 2021-06-17T18:45:30.000Z
Duration: 4 min 50 s

我們被統計學上的主張所包圍。

whether it's a striking graph going viral on social media,

無論是在社交媒體上瘋傳的引人注目的圖表。

a politician claiming that life has gotten 62% better

一位政治家聲稱生活已經好了62%。

or just something everyday, like a piece of economic data,

或者只是一些日常的東西，比如一個經濟數據。

那麼，我們應該如何看待他們呢？

謊言、該死的謊言和統計數據。

Or joke that 98% of statistics are made up on the spot.

或者開玩笑說，98%的統計數據是當場編造的。

After all, nobody likes to be taken for a fool.

畢竟，沒有人喜歡被當做傻瓜。

But we can't just reject all statistics equally.

但我們不能一視同仁地拒絕所有的統計數據。

Statistics can show us things about the world

統計數據可以向我們展示關於世界的東西

我們無法以任何其他方式感知的。

Instead, we have to exert a bit of brain power

相反，我們必鬚髮揮一點腦力的作用

to figure out what is true and what is not.

以弄清什麼是真的，什麼是假的。

That sounds hard, but perhaps it's not as hard as you might think.

這聽起來很難，但也許並不像你想象的那麼難。

Most statistics come packaged up with emotional baggage.

大多數統計數據都被包裝成了情感包袱。

They're supposed to make us angry or joyful or afraid.

它們應該讓我們憤怒、喜悅或恐懼。

Staggering deficits, shocking rates of crime,

驚人的赤字，令人震驚的犯罪率。

為公益事業籌集的資金令人鼓舞。

These emotions are why numbers go viral on social media,

這些情緒是數字在社交媒體上走紅的原因。

他們最終出現在頭條新聞中的原因。

There's nothing wrong with feeling emotions,

但它們並不能幫助我們思考清楚。

So before you share a claim that has you hot under the collar,

是以，在你分享一個讓你熱血沸騰的主張之前。

take a moment to notice your instinctive reaction -

花點時間注意你的本能反應------。

Once you've noticed it, look at the statistic again.

一旦你注意到這一點，再看看這個統計數字。

For example, when the UK Health Secretary said in 2020

例如，當英國衛生部長在2020年表示

that the NHS would save £100 million over five years

國家醫療服務系統將在五年內節省1億英鎊。

if everyone who was overweight lost a few pounds.

如果每個超重的人都減掉幾磅。

What does he mean by overweight, for example?

例如，他所說的超重是什麼意思？

And what evidence does he have to support this claim?

他又有什麼證據來支持這一說法？

is simply to understand whether £100 million is a big number.

是簡單地瞭解1億英鎊是否是一個大數字。

But there are 67 million people in the UK,

是以，1億英鎊只是每個人1.5英鎊。

你可以在你的手機上計算出來。

that if every overweight person lost some weight,

如果每個超重的人都減輕一些體重。

the NHS would save the equivalent of 30 pence per UK resident per year.

NHS將為每個英國居民每年節省相當於30便士的費用。

Statistics can be a very complex subject,

統計學可能是一個非常複雜的學科。

but you can get a long way with simple questions about context.

但你可以通過有關背景的簡單問題走很遠的路。

You don't need a lot of fancy maths, just a search engine,

你不需要很多花哨的數學知識，只需要一個搜索引擎。

the back of an envelope, and a curious mind.

一個信封的背面，以及一顆好奇的心。

Which brings me to the third important principle - be curious.

這使我想到第三個重要原則--要有好奇心。

When we use a number as a weapon in an argument,

當我們在爭論中使用一個數字作為武器時。

或者說是我們先入為主的一個道具。

相反，我們應該思考統計學問題

捫心自問，統計學上的主張是什麼？

Of course we don't have time to do all this for every claim we see,

當然，我們沒有時間為我們看到的每一項索賠做這一切。

so a final habit is to ask yourself whether the source

是以，最後的習慣是問自己：來源是什麼？

of a statistical claim is respecting the three Cs.

統計學上的主張是尊重三個C的。

A good journalist will help you be calm, will give you context,

一個好的記者會幫助你冷靜，會給你提供背景。

A viral 'gotcha' circulating on Twitter or WhatsApp

在Twitter或WhatsApp上流傳的病毒性 "騙局"。

We shouldn't just accept statistics unthinkingly,

我們不應該只是不假思索地接受統計數據。

but neither should we dismiss them without thinking either.

但我們也不應該不假思索地否定它們。

Three simple habits - be calm, get context, and be curious -

三個簡單的習慣--冷靜、瞭解背景和好奇心

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什麼時候可以相信統計數據？| BBC思想 (When can you trust statistics? | BBC Ideas)

perceive

equivalent

approach

context