Taiwan has been preparing.

But is Taiwan ready?

Welcome to China Uncensored. I'm Chris Chappell.

This episode has been sponsored  by Surfshark—because you should  

be protecting your identity whenever you  go online by using a VPN like Surfshark.

Taiwan. A thriving democracy  of 24 million people. 

Home of the Freedom Pineapple. 

And the hottest flashpoint of 2021! 

For years, experts have called  Taiwan the likeliest flash point  

that would trigger world war 3. 

That's because of the Chinese Communist  Party's plan for Taiwan “unification”.  

Which is just a nicer way of saying invasion. 

But a Chinese Communist takeover of Taiwan  would also endanger the rest of the world.  

Taiwan is part of the first island chain in the  Pacific, along with Japan and the Philippines.

The Chinese Communist Party is already claiming  the bottom part of the first island chain,  

with their nine-dash line in the South China Sea.

If they got Taiwan, too, that would  consolidate their power over much of  

Asia. And it would also be a launching point  for them to threaten the rest of the Pacific.

Including US allies like Japan, the Philippines,  and Australia. And US territories like Guam.

Even Hawaii.

That's a big reason why the  Pentagon should focus on Taiwan. 

But the US doesn't have an official defense  treaty with Taiwan. That means if the Chinese  

Communist Party actually invaded Taiwan, the  US isn't required by law to defend Taiwan. 

That doesn't mean the US wouldn't defend  Taiwan, it just means it's not guaranteed. 

However, the US is required by law “to provide  Taiwan with arms of a defensive character.”

Enough to “enable Taiwan to maintain  a sufficient self-defense capability.”

In 2020 alone, US arms sales to  Taiwan totaled 5 billion dollars. 

Of course, the Chinese Communist Party  has warned the Biden administration  

to stop doing this. Or doing  anything to support Taiwan. 

But other than throwing hissy fits at the US,  

the Chinese Communist Party doesn't have a lot  of options for how it can take over Taiwan.

It could move decisively to a full-scale  invasion to raise the cost of US intervention.

It's possible that the Biden  administration would then decide  

it's not worth sending US  troops to defend Taiwan. 

This is a risky move, though.  We've talked before about how  

difficult it would be to launch  a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

The Chinese regime could also  adopt a coercive strategy  

that gradually increases military pressure  to bend Taipei to China's demands.

This idea of gradual escalation is what  many people call gray zone warfare.

We did an episode about how the  Chinese regime is using gray  

zone warfare against Taiwan by constantly  sending warplanes into Taiwan's airspace.

This can ensure that China always maintains the  initiative, keeping Taiwan on edge constantly,  

without going into full-scale conflict.   

This “war of attrition” is  already wearing down Taiwan  

politically, militarily, and psychologically.

The Chinese Communist Party is trying to  make their aggression and militarization  

the norm, “something that is not worthy of  any sort of response from other nations.”

So if other countries won't respond to  the Chinese Communist Party's actions,  

is Taiwan's military prepared  for a Chinese invasion?

I'll get to that after the break.

Welcome back.

So is Taiwan's military prepared for an invasion? 

Taiwan has its eyes on increasing  its conventional weapon capabilities,  

but many experts say that Taiwan  should stop spending its money on them.

That's because those systems are  expensive and not necessarily useful  

for the type of warfare that Taiwan  would face from the Communist Party.

This is why, a couple of years  ago, former Taiwanese Admiral  

Lee Hsi-ming proposed what's called the  Overall Defense Concept, or ODC for short.

“The ODC is Taiwan's current strategy for dealing  

with a potential Chinese invasion in  a resource-constrained environment.”

Instead of a traditional war of attrition, the ODC  

redefines winning war against China  as “foiling the People's Liberation  

Army's mission of successfully invading and  exerting political control over Taiwan.”

Admiral Lee says Taiwan should prepare to absorb  

missile and air strikes and  preserve the ability to strike back.

The ability to strike back would rely  on an abundance of small, cheap weapons  

like mobile anti-ship missiles,  portable anti-aircraft missiles,  

advanced sea mines and fast missile boats.

What's great about these weapons is that they  can be camouflaged and dispersed in urban,  

coastal, jungle and mountain areas.

This makes it hard for the  PLA to search and destroy.

The ODC is an approach that Taiwanese  President Tsai Ing-wen supports.

There are, however, some bureaucratic challenges  that Taiwan faces in implementing the ODC.

“Efforts at defense reform face obstacles  from institutional opposition from senior  

officers and a lack of time.”

On top of that, there's also the  issue of Taiwan's military readiness.

“Taiwan is suffering a serious and  worsening decay in the readiness  

and training of its troops,  particularly its army units.”

Much of it is because Taiwan's  mandatory military service  

has dramatically decreased  from one year to four months.

But even within those four months,  

some army conscripts say that they only fire 30  to 40 rounds with their rifles. That's not a lot.

One army conscript said that he wasn't even  taught how to clear his rifle if it jammed.

Not even a fraction of conscripts  

get the chance to practice shooting  anti-tank missiles and grenade launchers.

So, they miss all the fun parts.

This is a problem because a military is  only as good as its soldiers. What good  

is buying weapons if your soldiers  aren't trained to use them properly?

The Tsai administration is trying to correct  these issues with a mobilization office.

Its goal is to better strengthen  and coordinate Taiwan's reserve  

forces so that reserve soldiers play a greater  role and support active-duty service members.

The administration will also  extend post-service training  

for reservists from 8 years to 15 years in 2022.

But are these reforms enough?

I'll get to that after the break.

Welcome back.

Taiwan's a democracy, and as a democracy,  you don't want to upset people — especially  

young voters — with something like  mandatory military conscription.

But you know what's easy to do? Rely  on America. But like I said earlier in  

this episode, there's no guarantee  that America will come through. 

Although if it doesn't, that would be a huge blow  to America's standing in the world, not to mention  

our ability to counter the Chinese Communist  Party. But that's a whole nother episode. 

The biggest problem for Taiwan, is that  relying on the US might be making Taiwan soft.

Retired US Marine Corp colonel Grant Newsham says  that Taiwan's military has been whittled down  

because it is acting as if defending the  country is someone else's responsibility.

There is also a concern  

the Taiwanese might not have the will to  defend against and resist the mainland.

This is a problem because, “as the president  of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council puts it,  

the problem of Taiwan's defense comes down to  'the space between how young Taiwan citizens  

feel about the island's sovereignty and  what they're prepared to do about it.'”

So how do they feel?

Polls show mixed messages. According to one  poll, “If war were to break out between Taiwan  

and China, 40.9 percent of those surveyed said  that they are willing to fight or would not  

object to their family's participation,  while 49.1 percent said the opposite.”

So the majority of Taiwanese are not willing  to fight against the Chinese regime. 

But another poll shows that 96 percent of 18  and 19-year-olds would be willing to fight.

Although that percentage dropped to 26 percent  

for people in their 20s. The age that would  likely be sent first to the front lines. 

But public sentiment in Taiwan is likely  to change as the Chinese Communist Party  

gets more aggressive. Hong Kong has already  been a huge wake-up call to many Taiwanese. 

When faced with an existential  crisis, a smaller force like Taiwan  

can beat a much larger foe like  China if it has enough resolve.

And Taiwan's government is proactively  trying to solve their military weaknesses.  

They just need enough time. 

So let's hope that this retired Japanese general  is wrong and China doesn't invade Taiwan by 2025.

And this episode is sponsored by Surfshark.

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Once again, I'm Chris Chappell. See you next time.