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  • Searches for the phrase, "When is the housing market going to crash," are up 2,450% over

    對 "房地產市場何時崩潰 "這一短語的搜索,比上一年增長了2450%。

  • the past month.

    在過去的一個月裡。

  • That's when you know that you have to make another video on the housing crash because

    這時你就知道,你必須再製作一個關於住房崩潰的視頻,因為

  • apparently the last video we made on the housing market wasn't enough, and people want to know

    顯然,我們上次製作的關於住房市場的視頻還不夠,人們想知道

  • more.

    更多

  • They no longer care about Dogecoin going to the moon or bitcoin finally replacing the

    他們不再關心Dogecoin登月或者比特幣最終取代了

  • dollar.

    美元。

  • They want to know whether the price of their house is going to crash this year.

    他們想知道他們的房子的價格今年是否會崩潰。

  • Imagine what happens to all these people who took mortgage only to rent them and create

    想象一下,所有這些接受抵押貸款的人將會發生什麼,他們只是將其出租,並創造了

  • passive income.

    被動收入。

  • what happens when home prices crash?

    房價暴跌時會發生什麼?

  • Rent prices will definitely fall as well, and that means that rents might not be able

    租金價格肯定也會下降,這意味著租金可能無法

  • to cover the mortgages, which could push many homeowners to sell their houses to be able

    以支付抵押貸款,這可能促使許多房主出售他們的房子,以便能夠

  • to pay their mortgages, and if they haven't acquired a substantial amount of equity in

    支付他們的抵押貸款,而且如果他們沒有獲得大量的資產,那麼他們就會被解僱。

  • the houses, the house might not pay the entire mortgage could drive prices down, which means

    的房子,房子可能無法支付整個抵押貸款可能會推動價格下跌,這意味著

  • there will be an oversupply of houses in the market, which further could push prices to

    市場上將出現房屋供過於求的情況,這可能會進一步推動價格上漲。

  • fall which could result in a nationwide housing crash.

    跌,這可能導致全國性的住房崩潰。

  • Oh my god, dear federal reserve!

    哦,我的上帝,親愛的聯邦儲備局!

  • What on earth have you done!

    你到底做了什麼!?

  • You tried to save the economy, but it seems like you are about to create a much bigger

    你試圖拯救經濟,但似乎你要創造一個更大的經濟。

  • disaster!

    災難!

  • Fortunately, that's not the entire story, and things aren't as bad as they might seem,

    幸運的是,這並不是故事的全部,事情並不像看起來那麼糟糕。

  • so let's try to understand what's happening with the housing market?

    是以,讓我們試著瞭解一下住房市場發生了什麼?

  • Are we on the brink of another housing crash?

    我們是否處於另一次住房崩潰的邊緣?

  • Or we shouldn't be worried?

    還是我們不應該擔心?

  • And whether it's the right time to buy a house?

    以及現在是否是買房的正確時機?

  • But before we do that, here is a little disclaimer.

    但在我們這樣做之前,這裡有一個小小的免責聲明。

  • This is not financial advice.

    這不是財務建議。

  • Everything that is said in this video is for educational and entertainment purposes and

    本視頻中所說的一切,都是出於教育和娛樂目的,並且

  • now, give this video a thumbs and let's get right into it!

    現在,為這段視頻豎起大拇指,讓我們馬上進入正題!。

  • What some people haven't realized that home prices are rising at a faster speed since

    一些人還沒有意識到的是,房價正在以更快的速度上漲,因為

  • great recession, since the 2008 crash!

    偉大的經濟衰退,自2008年崩潰以來!

  • I don't think anyone needs a reminder of how bad that crisis was.

    我認為任何人都不需要提醒,那場危機有多糟糕。

  • It literally took down with it the entire global economy, and the world doesn't need

    它實際上把整個全球經濟都拖垮了,而世界不需要它。

  • another global crisis after a global pandemic that shook the world, to say the least.

    至少可以說,這是繼全球大流行病之後的又一次全球危機,震撼了世界。

  • Many of you have said that it's unfair to compare current circumstances to 2008 because

    你們中的許多人都說,將目前的情況與2008年相比是不公平的,因為

  • we are living in different times, and the factors that are driving the prices today

    我們生活在不同的時代,而今天推動價格的因素是

  • are very different from what caused the 2008 crash, which is true.

    是與造成2008年崩潰的原因有很大不同,這是事實。

  • I can't argue against that!

    我無法反駁這一點!

  • However, in every single crisis, there are always different factors that lead to the

    然而,在每一次危機中,總是有不同的因素導致了

  • same outcome, which is a market crash.

    同樣的結果,那就是市場崩潰。

  • If every crisis followed a plain step-by-step guide, I think we would have long ago figured

    如果每一次危機都遵循一個簡單的步驟指南,我想我們早就已經想通了

  • out, and we wouldn't have another crisis.

    我們就不會有另一場危機了。

  • When home prices are growing faster than incomes, we know that something is wrong, and this

    當房價的增長速度超過收入的增長速度時,我們就知道出了問題,而這

  • is not sustainable.

    是不可持續的。

  • When home prices rise by 15 percent, we know that it's not going to end well.

    當房價上漲15%時,我們知道它不會有好結果。

  • However, many critics say the reason we shouldn't be worried is because this time the rise in

    然而,許多評論家說,我們不應該擔心的原因是,這一次上漲的

  • prices is organic.

    價格是有機的。

  • The strong demand is not driven by predatory lending practices.

    強勁的需求並不是由掠奪性貸款行為驅動的。

  • Banks aren't loaning money to random people just for the sake of maximizing profits.

    銀行並不是為了追求利潤最大化而隨意貸款給別人。

  • The 2008 crash pushed the government to tighten the control over the banks, and now it's much

    2008年的崩潰促使政府加強了對銀行的控制,而現在則是多

  • more difficult to take a mortgage, and lenders are far more careful.

    更難獲得抵押貸款,貸款人也更加謹慎。

  • But take a look at this graph.

    但是,看看這個圖吧。

  • This chart illustrates the monthly supply of houses in the US.

    這張圖說明了美國每月的房屋供應情況。

  • We can clearly see that there was a huge oversupply of houses which triggered the 2008 crash.

    我們可以清楚地看到,有大量的房屋供應過剩,引發了2008年的崩潰。

  • And since April 2020, the number of houses in the market dropped significantly.

    而自2020年4月以來,市場上的房屋數量明顯下降。

  • And that drop wasn't because there was an oversupply earlier, like in 2008 or because

    而這種下降並不是因為早些時候出現了供應過剩,比如在2008年,或者是因為

  • we had a tornado or a fire that destroyed a great number of houses that caused such

    我們有一個龍捲風或火災,摧毀了大量的房屋,造成這種

  • a shortage in the market.

    市場上出現了短缺。

  • Nothing like that happened!

    沒有發生過這樣的事情!

  • We have plenty of houses, but they are not listed in the market, and that's what the

    我們有很多房子,但它們沒有在市場上上市,這就是

  • driving force behind the tremendous increase in prices which is a problem.

    這是一個問題,是價格大幅上漲背後的驅動力。

  • We have a listing shortage, not a housing shortage.

    我們有房源短缺的問題,而不是住房短缺的問題。

  • Let's just assume hypothetically, what's going to happen when all these houses are going

    讓我們假設一下,當所有這些房子都要去的時候,會發生什麼?

  • back to the market?

    回到市場?

  • I am not saying that's gonna happen but let's just try t think about that for a moment.

    我不是說那會發生,但讓我們先試著想一想。

  • As of mid-April, around 2.3 million homeowner were still skipping their mortgage payments,

    截至4月中旬,約有230萬房主仍在跳過他們的抵押貸款付款。

  • and we have no idea how many of these homeowners will be able to keep making their monthly

    我們不知道這些房主中有多少人能夠繼續每月支付他們的費用。

  • payments once that forbearance period is over.

    一旦該暫緩期結束,就必須支付款項。

  • Literally, the fate of the housing market lies on that number.

    從字面上看,住房市場的命運就在這個數字上。

  • If that number isn't high enough, we will definitely experience a significant drop.

    如果這個數字不夠高,我們肯定會經歷大幅下降。

  • How many households will be in trouble when that day comes?

    當這一天到來時,有多少家庭會陷入困境?

  • How many of them will sell instantly or foreclose?

    其中有多少人會立即出售或取消抵押品贖回權?

  • How many desperate landlords will walk away from the rental business and sell as soon

    有多少絕望的房東會從租賃業務中走開,並儘快出售

  • as they can to get tenants out to minimize their losses?

    儘可能地讓租戶離開,以減少他們的損失?

  • The worst thing that could actually happen is a panic.

    實際上可能發生的最糟糕的事情是恐慌。

  • A panic literally makes any crisis a hundred times worse.

    恐慌簡直讓任何危機都變得糟糕百倍。

  • That's the point of having a central bank like the fed to prevent panic.

    這就是擁有像美聯儲這樣的中央銀行以防止恐慌的意義所在。

  • Because it could push many multi-homeowners to list their houses and get out before prices

    因為這可能會推動許多多房主在價格之前掛出他們的房子並出手。

  • drop further.

    進一步下降。

  • Once something like that happens, we are screwed.

    一旦發生這樣的事情,我們就完蛋了。

  • It happened once last year, and we got out of it by printing an unbelievable amount of

    去年發生過一次,我們通過印製數量驚人的

  • money.

    錢。

  • I don't think the economy is ready for another round of printing trillions of dollars.

    我認為經濟還沒有準備好接受新一輪的印製萬億美金。

  • The forbearance rate is twice bigger than what it was in the last crisis.

    寬恕率比上一次危機時大一倍。

  • Imagine all these houses going to market at once?

    想象一下,所有這些房子同時進入市場?

  • that's why Consumer Bureau proposed extending the pause on foreclosures until 2022.

    這就是為什麼消費者局提議將暫停取消贖回權的時間延長到2022年。

  • We are simply trying to postpone that scenario and try to at least minimize the damage somehow

    我們只是試圖延後這種情況的發生,並試圖至少以某種方式將損害降到最低。

  • by then.

    到那時。

  • Of course, i could be wrong and the fed can go for another round of pumping trillions

    當然,我可能是錯的,美聯儲可以進行新一輪的萬億抽水。

  • of dollars because government debt is not like personal debt.

    美元,因為政府債務與個人債務不一樣。

  • When you or I take a debt, we can go bankrupt, the lenders can come after us, after our assets,

    當你或我負債時,我們可以破產,貸款人可以來找我們,找我們的資產。

  • so we either pay the debt or declare bankruptcy.

    所以我們要麼償還債務,要麼宣佈破產。

  • But not in the case of the government because it can't go bankrupt since the government

    但在政府的情況下不是這樣,因為它不可能破產,因為政府

  • is the source of dollars.

    是美元的來源。

  • if you are the one who is issuing that currency and you have to pay back that currency, then

    如果你是發行該貨幣的人,你必須償還該貨幣,那麼

  • why worry.

    何必擔心。

  • Of course, the fed is an independent structure, but it's still part of the government in many

    當然,美聯儲是一個獨立的機構,但它在許多方面仍然是政府的一部分。

  • ways.

    方式。

  • It just functions in a different way.

    它只是以一種不同的方式運作。

  • But when too many dollars chase too few goods, inflation starts rising faster than it should,

    但是,當太多的美元追逐太少的商品時,通貨膨脹開始比它應該的速度上升。

  • which is going to make the currency worthless, which is what has been happening lately!

    這將使貨幣變得一文不值,這就是最近發生的事情!

  • Low mortgage rates pushed too many people to buy houses while the number of houses on

    低抵押貸款利率推動了太多的人購買房屋,而房屋的數量則在

  • the market dropped significantly!

    市場大幅下跌!

  • Which is causing house prices to rise too fast, which is what inflation is.

    這就造成了房價上漲過快,這就是通貨膨脹。

  • It's impossible to predict anything.

    不可能預測任何事情。

  • We just don't have enough data to make any accurate predictions.

    我們只是沒有足夠的數據來做出任何準確的預測。

  • I think the fed is playing with fire here.

    我認為美聯儲在這裡是在玩火。

  • Everything points out to at least a correction in the housing market.

    一切都表明,住房市場至少要進行一次修正。

  • A badly managed correction could lead to a crash, but that's just speculation and nothing

    管理不善的修正可能會導致崩潰,但這只是猜測,沒有任何意義。

  • more.

    更多

  • A correction is when the market falls by 10 to 20 percent, which is what most experts

    修正是指市場下跌10%至20%,這也是大多數專家的看法。

  • are predicting going to happen to the housing market, but it's very likely that some areas

    預測住房市場將發生變化,但很有可能一些地區

  • would witness a much greater drop, maybe even up to 30 percent.

    將見證一個更大的下降,甚至可能達到30%。

  • There are, of course, still some good deals in the market, because even during such circumstances,

    當然,市場上仍有一些好的交易,因為即使在這種情況下。

  • you can still find a good deal, but it's not going to be east.

    你仍然可以找到一個好的交易,但它不會是東部。

  • but I wouldn't personally risk buying now.

    但我個人不會冒險現在購買。

  • Why buy now when you might get it a huge discount later.

    為什麼現在買,因為你以後可能會得到巨大的折扣。

  • If you have enjoyed this video, you will most definitely enjoy this custom playlist that

    如果你喜歡這個視頻,你一定會喜歡這個定製的播放列表,它是

  • I have created specifically for you that has our most popular videos on business, investing,

    我專門為你創建了有我們最受歡迎的商業、投資方面的視頻。

  • and the stock market that can potentially change your life.

    和股票市場,有可能改變你的生活。

  • And now give this video the thumbs up that it deserves, and make sure to subscribe if

    現在給這個視頻豎起應有的大拇指,並確保訂閱,如果

  • you haven't done that yet.

    你還沒有做到這一點。

  • Thanks for watching and until next.

    謝謝你的觀看,直到下一次。

Searches for the phrase, "When is the housing market going to crash," are up 2,450% over

對 "房地產市場何時崩潰 "這一短語的搜索,比上一年增長了2450%。

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房市到了月球--對所有投資者的最後警告! (Housing Market TO THE MOON - Final Warning To All Investors!)

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    Summer 發佈於 2021 年 04 月 27 日
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