and Germany is at the center  of an international dispute.

和德國成為國際爭端的中心。

It's called Nord Stream 2, and as its construction nears completion,

它的名字叫北溪2號，隨著它的建設接近尾聲。

there's mounting pressure to put a stop to this controversial project. 

有越來越多的壓力，以停止這個有爭議的項目。

In August 2020, a Russian political leader and opponent of Vladimir Putin,

2020年8月，俄羅斯政治領導人、普京的反對者。

Alexei Navalny, was hospitalized after

阿列克謝-納瓦利尼，被送進了醫院，因為

being exposed to the nerve agent Novichok.

暴露於神經毒劑諾維喬克。

The attempt on his life was allegedly carried out by Russian Federal  

據稱，對他的謀殺企圖是由俄羅斯聯邦政府實施的。

Security Service agents on behalf of the Kremlin.

安全局特工代表克里姆林宮。

The assasination attempt and Navalny's subsequent

刺殺未遂和納瓦尼隨後的情況。

jailing prompted condemnation from political leaders around

監禁引起了各地政治領導人的譴責。

the world and saw widespread calls for increased economic

世界，並廣泛呼籲增加經濟援助。

sanctions on Russia. It also led to renewed calls for German chancellor Angela Merkel

對俄羅斯的制裁。這也導致德國總理默克爾再次呼籲。

to abandon the Nord Stream 2 project.

放棄北溪2號項目。

So Navalny puts an emphasis on Russia's mis-deeds and the question is, is Germany  

所以納瓦利尼把重點放在了俄羅斯的錯誤行為上，問題是，德國是否是

really going to support and again finish the silver platter pipe deal right as Russia

真的要支持並再次完成銀盤管交易，就像俄羅斯的

continues to do unacceptable things according to international norms?

繼續按照國際準則做不可接受的事情？

Do you think Russia have arrested Navalny to use him as a bargaining chip,

你認為俄羅斯逮捕納瓦尼是為了利用他作為談判的籌碼嗎？

which they wouldn't have had otherwise, that then releases 

他們不會有 否則，然後釋放

them from sanctions and  gets the deal over the line?

使他們免受制裁，並使交易過關？

Certainly, Navalny has been a thorn in the side of the Putin administration  

當然，納瓦利尼一直是普京政府的眼中釘。

for a number of years and these things may not be connected.

幾年了，這些事情可能沒有聯繫。

What would be interesting though is if a concession, by releasing Navalny, does 

但有趣的是，如果通過釋放納瓦利尼的讓步，確實

help as an alternative to  putting sanctions on Russia.

幫助，以替代對俄羅斯實施制裁。

Russsia denies being involved in the assassination attempt of Navlany and

俄羅斯否認參與暗殺納夫拉尼的企圖和

denies that his subsequent arrest was politically motivated.

否認他後來被捕是出於政治動機。

The Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines run beneath the Baltic Sea alongside the

北溪2號天然氣管道在波羅的海下面，沿著波羅的海的海岸線運行。

first Nord Stream pipelines, which were completed in 2011. The pipeline enters the

第一條北溪管道，於2011年建成。這條管道進入

Baltic near St Petersburg in Russia and stretches 765 miles

波羅的海

along the seabed before coming ashore

沿著海床

again at Greifswald in north-east Germany. The new pipelines, which are due to begin

又在德國東北部的格賴夫斯瓦爾德。新的管線，將於2013年開始。

operating in early 2021, can carry 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, potentially

2021年初營運，每年可輸送550億立方米天然氣，有可能

doubling the capacity of gas which can be pumped directly to Germany from Russia.

將可以從俄羅斯直接向德國輸送天然氣的能力提高一倍。

While the Nord Stream 2 project is funded by a consortium of five European energy

雖然北溪2號項目是由五個歐洲能源財團資助的。

companies from France, Austria, Germany, Britain and the Netherlands,

來自法國、奧地利、德國、英國和荷蘭的公司。

Russian majority state-owned energy company Gazprom is the sole stakeholder.

俄羅斯多數國有能源公司Gazprom是唯一的股東。

For Russia, how important is Nord Stream 2?

對於俄羅斯來說，北溪2號有多重要？

There are commercial interests here at play that Gazprom

這裡面有商業利益在起作用，而俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司。

wants to monopolise and there is a fear that now

想要壟斷，現在人們擔心的是

increasing exports of LNG are challenging the position of Gazprom.

越來越多的液化天然氣出口對俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司的地位提出了挑戰。

The $11 billion project has, however, faced widespread criticism ever since

然而，這個耗資110億美元的項目從一開始就面臨著廣泛的責備。

the deal was inked in 2015. Much of the opposition stems from the U.S., which  

該協議是在2015年簽署的。反對的聲音很大程度上來自於美國，它

worries that the new pipe will expand the Kremlin's influence in the region, while

擔心新管道將擴大克里姆林宮在該地區的影響力，而

several central and eastern European countries, are also concerned about

若干中歐和東歐國家也關切地注意到，這些國家的經濟和社會發展情況。

growing dependence on Russian energy.

對俄羅斯能源的依賴性越來越大。

Another country strongly opposed to the project is Ukraine, which has been in a

另一個強烈反對該項目的國家是烏克蘭，該國一直在。

protracted conflict with Russia since 2014. Before the completion of the first Nord

自2014年以來，與俄羅斯發生了曠日持久的衝突。在完成第一條 "北

Stream pipelines, 80% of gas supplied by Russia to the EU went through the country.

流管道，俄羅斯向歐盟供應的天然氣80%都經過國。

However, the gas supply wasn't always reliable due to long standing disputes

然而，由於長期以來的糾紛，天然氣供應並不總是可靠的。

between the two neighbors. While the Nord Stream projects are set to ensure a

兩個鄰居之間。而北溪項目的設置，則是為了確保一個。

steady supply of gas to the EU, Ukraine stands to lose lucrative transit fees.

向歐盟穩定供應天然氣，烏克蘭將失去豐厚的過境費。

We've had a situation of a political stand-off between the two countries and

我們已經出現了兩國政治對峙的局面，而且。

they're very keen to channel gas towards Europe

他們非常熱衷於向歐洲輸送天然氣。

through any other routes that they can.

通過任何其他途徑，他們可以。

Even though Nord Stream 2 has been dubbed

儘管《北溪2》被稱為 "北溪"。

the pipeline for “Europe's energy future,”

"歐洲能源未來的管道"。

Germany stands to reap the biggest rewards from the project.

德國將從該項目中獲得最大的回報。

Lower wholesale gas prices would give a significant boost to businesses

天然氣批發價下調將大大推動企業發展

and consumers in the country.

和國內的消費者。

That's why many analysts believe that German chancellor Angela Merkel and

所以很多分析人士認為，德國總理默克爾和。

her government are keen to ensure that the pipeline is viewed as a commercial

她的政府熱衷於確保管道被視為一種商業行為。

project, entirely separate from politics.

項目，完全脫離政治。

Many in the German political establishment don't see

德國政界的許多人都不認為

that it is worth pulling the plug on

值得推敲

a project that for political or economic reasons they find potentially beneficial

潛在利益的工程

and I think the hope is that Germany's neighbours are going to move on.

而我認為，希望德國的鄰居們能夠繼續前進。

They did with opposition to Nord stream one and they assume

他們與反對北流一，他們假設。

that the same thing will happen now. 

現在同樣的事情也會發生。

But the biggest obstacle to the pipeline is the U.S. As far back as 1981, the

但管道的最大障礙是美國，早在1981年，美國就。

Reagan administration imposed sanctions on a similar pipeline project from Russia

里根政府對俄羅斯類似的輸油管道項目實施制裁。

to Europe. As Nord Stream 2 nears completion, history is repeating itself.

到歐洲。隨著 "北溪2號 "即將完工，歷史正在重演。

The Obama and Trump administrations deemed the pipeline a geopolitical threat,

奧巴馬和特朗普政府認為該管道是地緣政治威脅。

and towards the end of 2019, the U.S. passed sanctions targeting companies

並在2019年年底，美國通過了針對公司的制裁。

involved in the development in an attempt to scupper its completion.

試圖阻撓其完成。

Allseas, a Swiss firm specialising in undersea construction, immediately

Allseas是一家專門從事海底建設的瑞士公司，它立即

buckled under the threat of sanctions and pulled its vessels from the project,

在制裁的威脅下屈服了，將其船隻從項目中撤出。

halting construction for a year and costing Gazprom a fortune.

停止施工一年，使俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司損失慘重。

Many other international companies were also deterred.

其他許多國際公司也望而卻步。

In the United States, the question of European gas pipelines is a foreign

在美國，歐洲天然氣管道問題是一個外國的

policy question. In the last few years it has been portrayed more as an

政策問題。在過去的幾年裡，它更多地被描述為是一個 "不平等 "的問題。

economic question but we had sanctions against companies building

經濟問題，但我們有制裁對公司建設

the pipelines to Germany in the early eighties from the United States.

八十年代初從美國到德國的管道。

So this is a story that really isn't a news story but a story that is coming up again.

所以這個故事其實並不是新聞，而是一個故事，又是一個故事。

So the US has a stance that this interaction between Europe and Russia

所以美國的立場是，歐洲和俄羅斯之間的這種互動。

- this inter-dependence on gas is a strategic liability

- 這種對天然氣的相互依賴是一種戰略責任。

and that it makes Europe more vulnerable.

並使歐洲更加脆弱。

At the start of 2021, the U.S. Congress expanded its sanctions net to include

2021年伊始，美國國會擴大了制裁網，包括了

insurers, certifiers and any companies supporting 'pipe-laying activities'.

保險公司、認證機構和任何支持 "管道鋪設活動 "的公司。

As a result, 18 European companies have pulled out of the project so far.

是以，到目前為止，已有18家歐洲公司退出了該項目。

The majority are companies insuring the project, but also civil engineering

大部分是公司為項目投保，也有土建工程的公司

companies responsible for running the pipeline's monitoring and safety systems.

負責運行管道的監測和安全系統的公司；

Russia is trying to counter the sanctions dragnet by increasing its stake in the  

俄羅斯正試圖通過增持股份來應對制裁的拖累。

development infrastructure, allowing it more control over the construction, free

發展基礎設施，使其能更多地控制建設、自由

from the threat of U.S. interference. While this may mean they can finish

不受美國干涉的威脅。雖然這可能意味著他們可以完成

laying the pipe, certifying the project to meet international safety standards

鋪設管道，證明該項目符合國際安全標準。

isn't something Russia can pull off on its own.

並不是俄羅斯一個人可以完成的。

One of the major issues is that the main certification company, DNV,

其中一個主要的問題是，主要的認證公司DNV。

withdrew from the project. Now this project has all been built to those

退出了這個項目。現在，這個項目已經全部建成，以那些

standards of that certification company and we think that without that type of

該認證公司的標準，我們認為，如果沒有這種類型的。

certification it may become difficult for any European regulator to

任何歐洲監管機構都可能難以對其進行認證。

actually allow flows through that pipeline.

實際上允許流經該管道。

Supporters of Nord Stream 2 also claim that the U.S. has rather

北溪2號的支持者還稱，美國已經相當。

more selfish reasons for opposing its construction. For years, the

更多的自私理由反對其建設。多年來，該

U.S. has been trying to sell more of its own liquified natural gas to

美國一直試圖將自己的液化天然氣更多地賣給

the EU. One of Nord Stream 2's most outspoken critics is Texan

的歐盟。北流2最直言不諱的批評者之一是德州人。

senator Ted Cruz, a major recipient of oil and gas political donations.

參議員特德-克魯茲，是石油和天然氣政治捐款的主要接受者。

For Russia, the delays and possible cancellation of Nord Stream 2 would

對俄羅斯來說，北溪2號的延遲和可能的取消將

deal a catastrophic blow to both its geopolitical ambitions and economy.

對其地緣政治野心和經濟造成災難性打擊。

Gazprom's gas sales to Europe make up nearly 70% of its gas revenues,

俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司對歐洲的天然氣銷售佔其天然氣收入的近70%。

while the company's overall sales account for more than

而公司的整體銷售額佔到了超過

5% of Russia's $1.6 trillion annual GDP.

佔俄羅斯年GDP1.6萬億美元的5%。

Russia doesn't have an incredibly diversified economy and it has

俄羅斯的經濟並不十分多元化，它有

needed to sell a lot of its fossil fuels to Western Europe which

需要向西歐出售大量的化石燃料，而西歐的化石燃料是由西歐人提供的。

is the closest market, its main market for decades now. Really

是離我們最近的市場，它的主要市場已經有幾十年了。真的是

to keep the country functioning. It can do so through existing

以維持國家的運作。它可以通過現有的

infrastructure but by having new pipelines it really entangles Western

基礎設施，但由於有新的管道，它真正糾纏了西方的

Europe into a longer term relationship with Russia.

歐洲與俄羅斯成長期關係。

It also creates the ability to have lots of new contracts.

這也創造了有很多新合同的能力。

After four years of fractured ties under Trump, the Biden administration

在特朗普的上司下，經過四年的斷裂關係，拜登政府。

is keen on mending relationships with Berlin and its European allies.

熱衷於修補與柏林及其歐洲盟友的關係。

However, the sanctions imposed by the U.S. remain an affront to

然而，美國實施的制裁仍然是對中國的侮辱。

the Europeans for what is considered a domestic affair.

歐洲人認為是家務事。

For now, German politicians are working to find a compromise with

目前，德國的政治家們正在努力尋找一個折衷方案，與

the Biden administration that avoids sanctions.

避免制裁的拜登政府。

One possible solution is a “snapback mechanism” that

一個可能的解決方案是 "回扣機制"，即

mandates closure of the Nord Stream pipelines if Russia threatens Ukraine.

規定如果俄羅斯威脅烏克蘭，就必須關閉北溪管道。

Germany point to legislation signed by Russia which says

德國指出，俄羅斯簽署的立法稱

they will not circumvent Ukraine. How strong is that?

他們不會繞過烏克蘭。這有多強？

Whether Germany will really be in a position to push Russia back

德國是否真的有能力逼退俄羅斯？

on that, we will have to see but the German position is, we are a strong

但德國的立場是，我們是一個強大的國家，我們是一個強大的國家。

and important buyer, we are a geopolitical weightful

和重要的買家，我們是一個地緣政治上的重

country and we can push back here.

國家，我們可以在這裡推倒重來。

Even as Berlin tries to reduce the uncertainty surrounding

即使柏林試圖減少圍繞在柏林的不確定性。

Nord Stream 2, the country's approaching general elections,

北流2、國家大選臨近。

scheduled for September 2021, makes the project a domestic political hot potato.

定於2021年9月，使該項目成為國內政治的燙手山芋。

There's a strong chance that the German Green Party could enter government

德國綠黨極有可能入主政府

through a coalition with the conservative CDU, which could

通過與保守派基民盟的聯盟，這可以

further complicate the project's completion.

使項目的完成更加複雜。

As the project enters its final stages, many stakeholders are watching

隨著項目進入最後階段，許多利益相關者都在關注著。

developments in the U.S. strategy closely, as tightening or easing of sanctions could

密切關注美國戰略的發展，因為收緊或放寬制裁可能會使美國的經濟發展受到影響。

determine the fate of the project. While the economic costs would hit Gazprom

決定項目的命運。雖然經濟成本將打擊Gazprom

and the Russian state hardest, the impact

和俄羅斯國家最嚴重，影響

will be felt across the continent. The successful

將在整個大陸感受到。成功的

completion, or final abandonment, of Nord Stream 2 could define Europe's energy

北溪2號的完成或最終放棄可能會決定歐洲的能源狀況。

strategy, and geopolitical relations with Russia

戰略，以及與俄羅斯的地緣政治關係。

and the U.S., for many years to come.

和美國，在未來很多年。

Hi guys, thanks for watching our video. Please subscribe to the channel but before

大家好，感謝觀看我們的視頻。請訂閱我們的頻道，但在此之前

you do that we'd love to know if you have any ideas for new stories for us to cover.

你這樣做，我們很想知道，如果你有任何想法的新故事，我們覆蓋。

Comment below the video to let us know and we'll see you next time.

在視頻下方留言讓我們知道，我們下次再見。