Name: 疫苗的推廣可能會限制工業股的上漲空間 (Vaccine rollout may limit upside for industrial stocks)
Uploaded: 2021-02-27T18:42:02.000Z
Duration: 5 min 20 s

Our focus today is the industrial sector, and our guest is Mike Hansen, senior vice president of Fisher Investments.

我們今天關注的是工業領域，我們的嘉賓是費希爾投資公司的高級副總裁邁克-漢森。

One sector that has done well over the past year is the industrial sector.

在過去的一年裡，有一個行業表現不錯，那就是工業行業。

Despite an economy in tatters, the MSC I world industrials index is up about 20% over the past 12 months.

儘管經濟一蹶不振，但MSC I世界工業指數在過去12個月中上漲了約20%。

This index is heavily weighted in favour of US industrial giants, including Honeywell and Boeing, but also Germany's Siemens.

這個指數的權重很大，有利於美國的工業巨頭，包括霍尼韋爾和波音，但也有利於德國的西門子。

One explanation for the steady rise in industrial stocks has been that while the pandemic closed many service businesses, factories for the most part kept going and people who were stuck at home with extra time and money splashed out on manufactured goods.

工業股穩步上升的一個解釋是，雖然疫情關閉了許多服務性企業，但大部分工廠仍在運轉，被困在家裡的人們用多餘的時間和金錢揮霍著購買製成品。

So with the economy at a crossroads, where is this sector heading?

那麼在經濟處於十字路口的情況下，這個行業的發展方向是什麼？

Let's ask Mike Hansen of Fisher Investments, Mike, Hi, Thanks for joining us.

我們來請教一下費舍爾投資公司的麥克-漢森，麥克，你好，謝謝你參加我們的節目。

Purchases have soared because of lockdown.

So does that mean a move back towards spending on services as the vaccine rolls out would be at the expense of industrials?

那麼，這是否意味著隨著疫苗的推廣，向服務性支出的迴流會以犧牲工業品為代價？

The answer is yes, and also know because industrials is a very complex category.

答案是肯定的，也知道因為工業品是一個非常複雜的類別。

You have everything from aerospace and defense to commercial services, and so what you really have to do is make sure you're looking at the specific industry and companies in question.

你有從航空航天和國防到商業服務的一切，所以你真正要做的是確保你正在尋找有關的具體行業和公司。

But in some, though, yes, I do believe things will normalise.

但在一些人看來，雖然，是的，我確實相信事情會正常化。

去年我們的是一個真正的轉變。

There was some lesser consumption overall, but most consumption simply shifted to manufactured goods.

總的來說，消費有所減少，但大部分消費只是轉移到製成品上。

As we come out of the vaccine process and potentially toward a world that looks a little more normal, those things will shift back.

當我們走出疫苗過程，並有可能走向一個看起來更正常一點的世界時，這些東西會轉移回來。

Certainly the change in those things, of course, is going to be moved a little bit by the stimulus packages that are happening in the United States and elsewhere, where there will be some excess spending where consumers will be allowed to spend a little more above trend than they did for a few quarters.

當然，這些事情的變化，當然會被美國和其他地方正在發生的一攬子經濟刺激計劃所感動一下，在那裡，會有一些超額的支出，消費者會被允許比幾個季度的趨勢多花一點。

But I don't expect that to last very long.

但我不指望這種情況會持續很久。

I do instead expect consumers to instead just reallocate and shift back towards more goods and services.

我倒是希望消費者反而只是重新分配，轉回更多的商品和服務。

But specifically those services that tend to dominate specifically, uh, the developed world's the developed countries of the world and are some of the recent price gains in industrials, perhaps a bit too dependent on the expectation that governments are about to invest heavily in infrastructure.

但具體到那些傾向於占主導地位的服務業，呃，世界發達國家的發達國家，是最近工業品價格上漲的一些，可能有點過於依賴政府即將大力投資基建的預期。

I think there's a little bit too much optimism there, Uh, the experience of 2000 and eight and the financial crisis and the global recession teaches us very much.

我覺得有點過於樂觀了 2000年和8年的經驗 金融危機和全球經濟衰退給了我們很多啟示。

Uh, there was the notion that President Obama had about the shovel ready projects.

呃，有一個概念，奧巴馬總統有關於鏟子準備好的項目。

Uh, but in today's world, that is very bureaucratic.

呃，但在當今世界，這是非常官僚的。

We don't even really have very many proposals on the table globally for renewed infrastructure spending, and you first have to get all those things through.

在全球範圍內，我們甚至真的沒有多少關於更新基礎設施支出的提案，你首先要把這些東西都通過。

And once you do, then you actually have to execute them.

而一旦你這樣做了，那麼你就真的要執行它們。

Experience tells you that that that is at best years away, and as a result, I don't expect some of the optimism that's pervading and some of especially the manufacturing arm of industrials, to really carry forward, at least that which is based on infrastructure spending.

經驗告訴你，這最多還需要幾年的時間，是以，我不期望一些瀰漫的樂觀情緒和一些特別是工業的製造業部門，能夠真正地延續下去，至少是基於基礎設施支出的樂觀情緒。

Overall, then is the industrial sector, or by a hold or sell for you.

整體來看，那麼是工業板塊，還是由持有或賣出的你。

Well, industrials, in fact, is not only a complex category, it skews small cap.

嗯，其實工業品，不僅是一個複雜的類別，它還偏向於小盤。

There are some of the huge large conglomerates there, but most of the companies in industrials are fairly small cap.

那裡有一些龐大的大集團，但工業領域的公司大多是相當小的市值。

In addition, there are also value oriented.

And so when I put all that together, I say to myself, Well, yes.

所以當我把所有的事情放在一起時，我對自己說，嗯，是的。

Value has done well over the last several weeks as things like interest rates have moved, but stocks price well into the future.

過去幾周，隨著利率等事物的變動，價值表現良好，但股票價格很好的未來。

And so we can't simply take one time effects and extrapolate those out very far into the future.

所以我們不能簡單地把一次的效果，把這些效果推算到很遠的未來。

What I've been saying is that one time effects have a temporal effect, and as a result, the pop and industrial stocks, in my view, is likely to be fairly short lived.

我一直在說的是，一次效應具有時間效應，是以，在我看來，爆款和工業股，很可能相當短暫。

And growth stocks are likely to be more like the output performers as the cycle progresses.

而隨著週期的推進，成長股可能會更像輸出型的表現。

That was Fisher Investments senior vice president Mike Hanson.

那是費舍爾投資公司高級副總裁邁克-漢森。

Well, before I go, here are some of the top stories in the sector.

好了，在我走之前，這裡有一些部門的熱門新聞。

Daimler Trucks says a shift to zero emission vehicles will lead to thousands of job losses at the company's Germany Powertrain plants by 2033 although it said the cuts would be gradual.

戴姆勒卡車表示，雖然戴姆勒卡車表示裁員將是漸進式的，但向零排放汽車的轉變將導致該公司德國動力總成工廠在2033年前損失數千個工作崗位。

French aerospace contractor Saffron says it forces a recovery from crisis after demand for jet engines dropped last year.

法國航空航天承包商Saffron表示，在去年噴氣發動機需求下降後，迫使其從危機中復甦。

2020 recurring operating income fell 56% to $2.1 billion on a 33% drop in revenue for this year.

2020年經常性營業收入下降56%至21億元，今年收入下降33%。

It said revenues would keep falling, but at a much lower rate of 2 to 4%.

它說，收入將繼續下降，但降幅要低得多，為2-4%。

And finally, Softbank backed robotics company Bark Shoes.

最後，軟銀支持機器人公司Bark Shoes。

Grey has agreed to go public through a merger with a blank check firm in a deal worth $27 billion.

格雷已經同意通過與空頭支票公司合併上市，交易價值270億美元。

The Revolution Acceleration Acquisition Corporation is expected to give Bark Shoes Grey about $413 million as the logistics automation company takes advantage of a surge in online shopping.

革命加速收購公司預計將給樹皮鞋灰約4.13億美元，因為這家物流自動化公司利用在線購物的激增。

 A C surged 18% on the news on Wednesday, and that's your roundup of the industrial sector Rome Elena Casas and this is Reuters. 

A C在週三的新聞中飆升了18%，這是你對工業界的總結羅馬Elena Casas，這是路透社。