planets, that is, planets with conditions that are similar to our own. “Life exists

也就是與我們自身條件相似的行星。"生命的存在

on earth,” the logic goes, “so earth-like conditions are probably a good bet to find

在地球上，"邏輯上說，"所以類似地球的條件可能是一個很好的賭注，以找到

more life.”

更有生命力。"

And yet.

然而。

There are hundreds of billions of galaxies in the observable universe, each with billions

在可觀測的宇宙中，有上千億個星系，每個星系都有幾十億個。

if not trillions of stars, and most stars have planets orbiting them. That's roughly

如果不是數萬億顆恆星，大多數恆星都有行星圍繞它們運行。那大概是

a million billion billion planets. The enormity of this number means it's probably safe

一百萬億顆行星這個數字的艱鉅性意味著它可能是安全的。

to assume that there are many many *many* other planets with life - even intelligent

假設有很多很多其他星球有生命 甚至有智慧的生命

life.

生命。

And this, together with some basic physics and fancy statistics, implies it's more

而這，加上一些基本的物理學和花哨的統計學，意味著它更多的是

likely that species of intelligent extraterrestrials will live on habitable planets unlike earth

智慧外星物種有可能生活在與地球不同的宜居星球上。

and will be unlike humans. More precisely, they'll be bigger than us and live in smaller

並將與人類不同。更準確地說，他們會比我們大，但生活在更小的地方

groups on smaller planets.

群體在較小的行星上。

Now, I know it sounds crazy that with only one data point – us – we can make any

現在，我知道這聽起來很瘋狂，只有一個數據點--我們--我們可以做出任何

predictions at all about aliens we don't even know exist. But we can – here's

對我們根本不知道存在的外星人進行預測。但我們可以--這裡是

how:

如何。

A basic result in statistics is that there's a big difference between the properties of

統計學的一個基本結果是，以下屬性之間有很大的區別。

a typical *individual* and the properties of an individual in a typical *group*. The

一個典型的*個人*和一個典型的*群體中個人的屬性。該

majority of humans, for example, live in countries with a population of at least 180 million

例如，大多數人類生活在至少有1.8億人口的國家中。

people. But the majority of countries have populations of less than 6 million.

人，但大多數國家的人口不到600萬。但大多數國家的人口不到600萬。

And the majority of *religious* humans are members of religions with more than a billion

而大多數*宗教的人類，都是宗教的成員，有十幾億人。

followers, while the majority of *religions* have fewer than a million followers.

追隨者，而大多數*宗教的追隨者不到百萬。

And the majority of people who follow the English Premier league are fans of teams with

而關注英超聯賽的人，大部分都是有球隊的球迷。

hundreds of millions of fans like Manchester United, while most *teams* have just a few

像曼聯那樣擁有數億球迷，而大多數*隊只有幾個

million fans each.

萬粉絲，每。

It doesn't matter how many individuals you have, or how you make the groups – they

不管你有多少個人，也不管你如何組成小組--它們

can be religions, or fans of sports teams, or the ingredients of this trail mix. It is

可以是宗教，也可以是運動隊的粉絲，也可以是這個小道組合的成分。它是

a mathematical fact that the group that the median individual belongs to will be at least

一個數學事實，即中位數個體所屬的群體將至少是一個。

as big/bigger than the median group. Or, simply put, any time groups are not all the same

作為比中位數組大/大。或者簡單的說，任何時間組別都不盡相同。

size, most individuals will be members of groups that are bigger than most of the other

規模，大多數個人將成為比大多數其他群體更大的群體的成員。

groups.

群體。

The takeaway is that an individual should expect to be a member of a large group, not

啟示是，個人應該期望成為一個大團體的成員，而不是。

an ordinary one. If you don't know what group you fall into (like, I don't know

一個普通的。如果你不知道自己屬於哪一類人（比如說，我就不知道

what my blood type is), the most likely groups to be in are the biggest ones – I'm probably

我的血型是什麼)，最有可能的群體是最大的群體--我可能是...。

O or A positive.

O或A正。

And when it comes to intelligent life forms, we humans don't know what kind of group

而說到智慧生命體，我們人類不知道是什麼樣的群體

we fall into. So statistics tells us that we, as individuals, should expect to be members

我們屬於。所以統計學告訴我們，作為個人，我們應該期望成為成員

of a large group of intelligent beings. That is, we should expect that our species has

的一大群智慧生命。也就是說，我們應該期望我們的物種有... ...

a higher population than most other species. And just knowing that we probably have a high

比其他大多數物種的數量要高。只是知道我們可能有一個高

population tells us a lot.

人口告訴我們很多東西。

For example, individual living beings require space to live – I mean, the countries with

例如，生物個體需要生活空間--我是說，有的國家有

the biggest populations tend to have large land areas – so earth, with its high population,

人口最多的地方往往土地面積大--所以地球，人口多。

is probably bigger than most other planets with intelligent life.

可能比其他大多數有智慧生命的行星還要大。

Similarly, smaller living creatures need less space and energy per creature, and accordingly

同樣，較小的生物對每個生物所需的空間和能量也較少，相應地

tend to have higher population densities: that's why there are way more ants on earth

往往有較高的人口密度：這就是為什麼地球上的螞蟻多得多。

than elephants. So humans, with our high population, are probably physically smaller than most

比大象還小所以，人類在人口眾多的情況下，體型可能比大多數人都要小。

other species of intelligent life.

其他物種的智慧生命。

In fact, we should expect to be abnormal among intelligent aliens when it comes to anything

其實，我們應該想到，在智慧外星人中，當涉及到任何事情時，我們應該是不正常的。

that influences overall population size. Like, easily available energy makes it easier to

影響整體人口數量的。就像，容易獲得的能源使它更容易

maintain higher populations, so we should expect our sun to be somewhat hotter and brighter

維持較高的人口數量，所以我們應該期待我們的太陽會更熱更亮一些

and closer than the stars of most intelligent alien species; and we should expect our atmosphere

而且比大多數外星智慧物種的恆星更近；我們應該期望我們的大氣層

to be more transparent to our star's light; and so on.

以便對我們的恆星的光線更加透明；等等。

If this all sounds a bit unspecific, well, with just a few more simple and reasonable

如果這一切聽起來有點不具體，那麼，只要再簡單合理地說幾句

assumptions based on basic physics, we can be more precise. Researchers have predicted

基於基本物理學的假設，我們可以更加精確。研究人員已經預測到

that the population of most intelligent alien species should be below 20 million individuals;

大多數外星智慧物種的數量應該低於2000萬個體。

the majority of planets with intelligent life should have less than 80% the radius of the

大多數有智慧生命的行星，其半徑應該小於八成。

earth; and the individuals of most intelligent alien species should be at least as massive

而大多數外星智慧物種的個體至少也應該和地球一樣龐大。

as polar bears.

作為北極熊。

So instead of looking for nearby intelligent extraterrestrials on “earth-like planets”,

所以，與其在 "類地行星 "上尋找附近的智慧外星人。

the intelligent approach might be to look for habitable planets slightly smaller, darker,

聰明的做法可能是尋找可居住的行星 稍微小一點的，黑暗的。

and hazier than our own. In short, we should expect to be the Manchester United

和比我們自己的更瘋狂。簡而言之，我們應該期望成為曼徹斯特聯隊。

of the universe, searching for AFC Wimbledon.

的宇宙，尋找亞足聯溫布爾登。