It's the first such gathering since the U.

這是自美國以來第一次這樣的聚會。

S.

S.

Election meeting.

選舉會議。

A deadline set by the Trump White House to withdraw all foreign troops by the end of May is now in doubt.

特朗普白宮設定的在5月底前撤出所有外國軍隊的最後期限，現在成了疑問。

Here's a look at what's at stake for the major players involved and crucially, for the people of Afghanistan.

下面我們來看看對有關的主要角色，特別是對阿富汗人民來說，有什麼利害關係。

Attacks on police and civilians, roadside bombs targeting officials.

襲擊警察和平民，針對官員的路邊炸彈。

Afghanistan continues to be hit by violence despite the ongoing talks between the government in Kabul and the Taliban.

儘管喀布爾政府與塔利班之間正在進行談判，但阿富汗繼續受到暴力的衝擊。

At this very particular juncture, with such kind of a deterioration off situation, we are getting closer to a real situation off chaos.

在這個非常特殊的時刻，隨著這種情況的惡化，我們越來越接近一個真正的混亂局面。

The NATO ministers should really keep notes off this based on their global universal obligations off protecting civilians.

北約的部長們真的應該根據他們保護平民的全球普遍義務來記錄此事。

No one wants the troops to stay forever or zala, Ashraf Nemat says.

沒有人希望部隊永遠停留或扎拉，阿什拉夫-內馬特說。

But a responsible withdrawal should be based on conditions on the ground.

但是，負責任的退出應該是基於當地的條件。

That seems to be a notion shared by many in Afghanistan for the average person throughout Afghanistan.

對於整個阿富汗的普通人來說，這似乎是許多阿富汗人共同的觀念。

What they want is a decision that will lead to peace and an end to the fighting so that they can come to markets like this without worry.

他們想要的是一個將導致和平和結束戰鬥的決定，以便他們能夠毫無顧慮地來到這樣的市場。

As for the government, what they want is an answer.

至於政府，他們要的是一個答案。

They want to know exactly what the U.

他們想知道美國到底是什麼。

S.

S.

Wants to do, what NATO wants to do.

想做的，北約想做的。

If they're keeping any forces on when they leave, that's it.

如果他們離開的時候還保留著任何力量，那就是了。

All they want is an answer so that they can plan for the future ahead.

他們要的只是一個答案，這樣才能為未來做打算。

This is one off president Biden's most challenging policy dilemmas.

這是拜登總統最具挑戰性的政策難題之一。

If the US pulls out of Afghanistan by May 2021 has agreed in a deal between his predecessor and the Taliban, the country could plunge deeper into chaos.

如果美國在2021年5月之前撤出阿富汗已經在他的前任和塔利班之間的協議中達成一致，該國可能會陷入更深的混亂。

If the troops stay, the Taliban could retaliate.

如果部隊留下來，塔利班可能會進行報復。

The administration will be looking, if they can, to do two things.

如果可以的話，政府將尋求做兩件事。

The first is to withdraw in a more measured way that will salvage some stability from the situation in Afghanistan and secondly, leave the United States and coalition partners with some capacity for counter terrorism in the region and do all of this in close coordination with its NATO allies.

首先是以更有節制的方式撤軍，以挽救阿富汗局勢的一些穩定；其次是給美國和聯盟夥伴留下一定的反恐能力，並與北約盟友密切協調，做好這一切。

The Biden administration has strongly signaled that they will listen to the experts and will remain in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future.

拜登政府已經強烈表示，他們將聽取專家的意見，在可預見的未來將繼續留在阿富汗。

This is a major policy shift from the Trump White House.

這是特朗普白宮的一個重大政策轉變。

And this will be Biden's first major policy decision for the Middle East and could have a deep impact on his presidency.

而這將是拜登對中東的第一個重大政策決定，可能會對他的總統任期產生深刻影響。

Americans have grown exhausted from endless wars, and it will be a tough sell to the public that remaining in Afghanistan is the best course of action.

美國人已經從無休止的戰爭中疲憊不堪，繼續留在阿富汗是最好的行動方案，這將是一個艱難的銷售給公眾。

NATO allies welcome the change in tone from the U.

北約盟友歡迎美國改變語氣。

S administration.

S管理。

The alliance relies on U.

該聯盟依靠U。

S forces for logistical support in Afghanistan, and Secretary General Stoltenberg made it clear that NATO won't leave before the time is right a clear hint that they may deadline could be extended.

S部隊在阿富汗的後勤支持，祕書長斯托爾滕貝格明確表示，北約不會在時機成熟前離開，明確暗示他們可能最後期限會延長。

If there's no decision or it's the ongoing event in this case on that, from my point, if you can only be a decision to say this, let's stay as it is for the time being.

如果沒有決定，或者是這個案件中正在進行的事件就，從我的角度來說，如果你只能是一個決定說這個，我們暫時就保持這個樣子。

That means we continue.

這意味著我們繼續。

But how they continue remains a big question.

但如何繼續下去仍是一個大問題。

After 20 years off military presence in Afghanistan, allies are growing increasingly war weary.

在阿富汗停軍20年後，盟友們越來越厭倦戰爭。

They have been successful in defeating Al Qaeda by had to realize they didn't have the capacity to reengineer Afghanistan.

他們已經成功地擊敗了基地組織，不得不意識到他們沒有能力重新設計阿富汗。

They want to coordinate their next steps, knowing that the price for leaving too soon could be very high.

他們想協調下一步的行動，知道過早離開的代價可能非常大。

Let's get some perspective on this.

讓我們來了解一下這個問題。

We're joined now by K.

現在加入我們的是K.

Clark, co director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network.

阿富汗分析家網絡的聯合主任克拉克。

She joins us from London.

她從倫敦趕來

Welcome to the program we just heard there about all of the circumstances facing NATO that that we've just seen.

歡迎收看我們剛剛聽到的關於北約面臨的所有情況的節目，我們剛剛看到的。

Um, Given all of that, is there any question that the alliance will topple this May 1st withdrawal deadline that the Trump Administration set and agreed with the Taliban?

嗯，鑑於這一切，有沒有任何問題，該聯盟將推翻這個5月1日撤軍的最後期限，特朗普政府設定並與塔利班達成一致？

I think it's quite quite likely.

我想這是很有可能的。

I mean, one of the problems at the moment is there is no good option.

我的意思是，目前的一個問題是沒有好的選擇。

Um, the deal that Mr Trump and the Taliban reached was basically a withdrawal agreement on bond.

嗯，特朗普先生和塔利班達成的協議基本上是一個關於債券的退出協議。

To get the Taliban even to the table, America had to give away a great deal.

為了讓塔利班即使到談判桌前，美國也不得不送上一大筆錢。

So it agreed that the Afghan government would release five Taliban prisoners.

於是，它同意阿富汗政府釋放5名塔利班囚犯。

Um, it's basically agreed to remove the Taliban's major enemy from the battlefield, which is the U.

嗯，基本上是同意把塔利班的主要敵人從戰場上清除，也就是美國。

S.

S.

Military on the Taliban was required to do very, very little on dim the last year since the agreement was signed, they've been gradually and systematically and quite cleverly, ramping up the war.

軍方對塔利班的要求是做得非常，非常少，在昏暗的過去一年裡，自從協議簽署以來，他們已經逐漸地，系統地和相當聰明地，加緊了戰爭。

So if the foreign troops leave now that that lead, that takes the main deterrent from Taliban from Afghanistan.

所以，如果外國軍隊現在離開，那導致，這需要從塔利班從阿富汗的主要威懾。

But, as your correspondent said, if the foreign troops stay on, the Taliban may well up the ante.

但是，正如你的記者所說，如果外國軍隊留下來，塔利班很可能會加大賭注。

And it's not so much a danger for foreign troops.

而對於外軍來說，就沒有那麼多危險了。

Although they would be the the ostensible target for the Taliban, they have been attacking them for the last year.

雖然他們會是塔利班的表面目標，但去年他們一直在攻擊他們。

But they could, for example, returned toe major terrorist atrocities in the urban areas, for example, or try to take provincial provincial centers.

但是，他們可以，比如說，比如說，返回到城市地區的重大恐怖暴行，比如說，或者試圖拿下省級中心。

Okay, eso upping the ante, you say, could really have, ah, human cost.

好吧，你說，提高賭注，可能真的有，啊，人的代價。

In fact, we know that you've reported from Afghanistan.

事實上，我們知道你在阿富汗報道過。

Indeed, for a while you were, um, the only Western journalists who was stationed there full time.

的確，有一段時間，你是，嗯，唯一一個全職駐紮在那裡的西方記者。

You know, we we hear about the challenges to a sustainable path to peace in the country, which has has really eluded the country's people.

你知道，我們聽到的是該國可持續的和平道路所面臨的挑戰，而這確實是該國人民所無法理解的。

Do you see any signs for hope?

你有沒有看到希望的跡象？

Right now, it's grim.

現在，它是嚴峻的。

It's really, really grim on.

這真的是，真的是嚴峻的上。

It's not because everyone in Afghanistan wants the war to continue.

這不是因為阿富汗的每個人都希望戰爭繼續下去。

This is not a war with popular support for either side.

這不是一場民眾支持任何一方的戰爭。

You know, this is not a place where people cheer on when their enemies get attacked.

你知道，這裡不是一個當敵人被攻擊時人們歡呼的地方。

This is a place where most Afghans want peace on.

這是一個大多數阿富汗人希望和平的地方。

Actually, that includes many within the Taliban, or at least some within the Taliban who were very hopeful about a negotiated settlement.

其實，這包括塔利班內部的許多人，或者至少是塔利班內部的一些人，他們對談判解決抱有很大希望。

Those hopes have been dashed because the Taliban have taken such a a line where, where in they are pursuing military victory They talk in Doha heart, but without really any conviction.

這些希望已經破滅了，因為塔利班已經採取了這樣的路線，他們在哪裡，他們在哪裡追求軍事上的勝利，他們在多哈的心臟說話，但沒有真正的任何信念。

Ah, on we've seen in the way that they have intensified the war, that they're very, very keen on the military option.

啊，我們已經看到他們加強戰爭的方式， 他們非常，非常熱衷於軍事選擇。

Of course, for NATO Andi, other partners of Afghanistan, of the Afghan government, that raises a raises, dilemmas.

當然，對於北約安迪、阿富汗的其他夥伴、阿富汗政府來說，這就提出了一個問題，兩難。

But once which a military there isn't really a military solution at the moment.

但一旦哪支軍隊目前還沒有真正的軍事解決方案。

If the Taliban continue in the way that they doing, there will be civil war, especially with the foreign forces.

如果塔利班繼續以他們的方式做，會有內戰，特別是與外國軍隊。

With that sobering assessment Um, Kate Clark, we thank you so much for joining us to share that expertise.

嗯，凱特-克拉克，我們非常感謝你加入我們的行列，分享你的專業知識。

As we mentioned.

正如我們提到的。

Um, you're from the Afghanistan analysts network.

你是阿富汗分析家網絡的人。

Thanks for joining us on DW news for more.

感謝參加我們DW新聞網的更多報道。

Now we're joined by Ben Hodges in Frankfurt.

現在我們由法蘭克福的本-霍奇斯加入。

He's retired US Lieutenant General and now the Pershing chair in strategic studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

他是美國退役中將，現在是歐洲政策分析中心戰略研究領域的珀辛主席。

Thanks for being with us, General Hodges.

謝謝你和我們在一起，霍奇斯將軍。

What do you make of the possibility of the US and its NATO allies continuing their military presence in Afghanistan?

你怎麼看美國及其北約盟友繼續在阿富汗駐軍的可能性？

Well, thank you.

嗯，謝謝你。

I think the most important thing is that the United States and the Alliance are signaling that Number one, we're going thio, consult together, decide together and act together, not a unilateral withdrawal by the United States.

我認為最重要的是，美國和聯盟發出的信號是，第一，我們要一起協商，一起決定，一起行動，而不是美國單方面撤軍。

I think I think this is very important.

我認為我認為這是非常重要的。

Secondly, it is important that whatever the timing is, it's done in such a way that the Afghan government and the Afghan people are not left eso exposed.

其次，重要的是，無論時機如何，都不能讓阿富汗政府和阿富汗人民暴露在外。

And then finally, we have to address Pakistan.

最後，我們必須解決巴基斯坦問題。

We could be in Afghanistan for 1000 years, But if we don't address Pakistan and the safe haven that it gives to the Taliban, then we will never be able to defeat them.

我們可以在阿富汗待上一千年 但如果我們不解決巴基斯坦問題 以及它給塔利班提供的安全庇護所 那我們就永遠無法打敗他們了。

Now.

現在就去

NATO defense ministers are meeting today for the first time since Joe Biden took office.

北約防長今天舉行會議，這是喬-拜登上任後的首次。

As US president, Washington is the decisive player within the alliance.

作為美國總統，華盛頓是聯盟內的決定性角色。

What impact do you think that change of administration in Washington will have on NATO?

你認為華盛頓的政府更迭會對北約產生什麼影響？

Well, let me.

好吧，讓我來。

Let me say this first.

讓我先說一下。

The decisive part of NATO is the cohesion when all 30 members of the alliance stick together.

北約的決定性部分是當聯盟所有30個成員團結在一起時的凝聚力。

Uh, clearly, the new administration has eliminated all doubt or concerned about America's commitment to NATO America's commitment to Europe.

呃，很明顯，新政府已經消除了對美國對北約的承諾的所有懷疑或擔憂，美國對歐洲的承諾。

So for me, this is a breath of fresh air, knowing that nobody will question whether or not the United States is committed to the alliance.

是以，對我來說，這是一股新鮮空氣，知道沒有人會質疑美國是否致力於聯盟。

The fact that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in his very first morning called Secretary John Stoltenberg Thio acknowledge and confirm the United States commitment to nego.

事實上，國防部長勞埃德-奧斯汀在他的第一個早晨打電話給約翰-斯托爾滕貝格部長，承認並確認美國對否定的承諾。

Well, NATO is preparing to update its strategic concept.

嗯，北約正準備更新其戰略概念。

You know quite a bit about that.

你知道的還真不少。

What do you see as the main challenges facing NATO today?

你認為北約今天面臨的主要挑戰是什麼？

Well, I think first of all, the alliance has to continue doing everything required to maintain cohesion, the respect for each other, the commitment each other.

好吧，我想首先，聯盟必須繼續做一切必要的事情，以保持凝聚力，相互尊重，相互承諾。

This is This is really important because this is what our potential adversaries fear the most.

這一點非常重要，因為這是我們潛在的對手最害怕的。

Is all 30 nations sticking together?

30個國家的人都在一起嗎？

Uh, the Secretary general is talked about the need to prevent large capability gaps, especially with the growth and speed of technological change.

呃，祕書長談到要防止出現大的能力差距，特別是隨著技術變革的發展和速度。

This is important, but I think The strategic concept is also about ensuring we have a strong European pillar.

這一點很重要，但我認為戰略概念也是為了確保我們有一個強大的歐洲支柱。

Uh, not a European pillow.

呃，不是歐洲枕頭。

Aziz.

阿齊茲

The United States looks to China as its long term strategic rival.

美國將中國視為其長期的戰略對手。

And so the United States does not have the capacity to deter Russia containing Iran, protect global Commons and deal with a rising China led by the Chinese Communist Party.

所以美國沒有能力遏制俄羅斯遏制伊朗，保護全球公有制，應對中共上司的崛起的中國。

So I think the alliance focusing on its core mission of deterrence and defense in Europe is really important.

所以我認為，聯盟專注於歐洲的威懾和防禦的核心任務真的很重要。

General ologists.

一般後勤人員。

Thank you very much for your insights.

非常感謝你的見解。

That was retired us Lieutenant General Ben Hodges.

那是我們退役的本-霍奇斯中將。

Thank you.

謝謝你了