as an alternative to coins, as a means of payment.

作為硬幣的替代品，作為一種支付手段。

Three centuries later, it's primarily tasked with maintaining price stability,

三百年後，主要任務是維護價格穩定。

much like any other central bank across the world.

很像世界上其他的中央銀行。

But these cautious institutions are now buzzing with talk of a revolutionary concept,

但是，這些謹慎的機構現在正熱鬧地談論著一個革命性的概念。

a form of money you cannot see: central bank digital currencies.

一種你看不到的貨幣形式：央行數字貨幣。

When you ask central banks around the world whether they are exploring CBDC,

當你問世界各地的央行是否在探討CBDC。

one year ago the answer was 80% of them were exploring, and now it's nearly 90%.

一年前的答案是80%的人在探索，現在已經接近90%了。

Last year, 40% were experimenting and now it's 60%.

去年有40%的人在做實驗，現在是60%。

The vast majority of central banks are exploring CBDC.

絕大多數央行都在探索CBDC。

The idea of digital money is not new. Many of us use debit and credit cards

數字貨幣的概念並不新鮮。我們很多人都使用借記卡和信用卡

or payments apps for transactions, but what would make a central bank digital currency different?

或支付應用進行交易，但央行數字貨幣會有什麼不同？

One of the big financial developments over the last few years has been the rise in popularity of cryptocurrencies,

過去幾年的金融大發展之一是加密貨幣的普及。

with one in particular, bitcoin, standing out.

其中尤以比特幣最為突出。

Following Tesla's announcement that it bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin in February 2021,

繼特斯拉宣佈在2021年2月買入價值15億美元的比特幣後。

the volatile cryptocurrency's price surged to new highs, giving it a theoretical market capitalization

波動性較大的加密貨幣的價格飆升至新高，使其理論市值達

that is even larger than the world's two largest payments processing companies: Visa and MasterCard.

的規模甚至超過了世界上最大的兩家支付處理公司。維薩和萬事達卡

Unlike traditional money, cryptocurrencies are not issued by a central bank,

與傳統貨幣不同，加密貨幣不是由中央銀行發行的。

but rather via a decentralized network of computers, typically using blockchain technology.

而是通過一個去中心化的計算機網絡，通常使用區塊鏈技術。

Even Facebook is trying to get in on the act with the 2019 announcement that it would develop its own digital currency,

就連Facebook也試圖參與其中，2019年宣佈將開發自己的數字貨幣。

known at the time as Libra and now rebadged as Diem.

當時稱為天秤座，現在改名為琰。

And so at that point central bankers started to realize they were really under some threat.

所以在那個時候，央行家們開始意識到他們真的受到了一些威脅。

And the question became, if we can't beat them, do we join them?

而問題就變成了，如果我們打不過他們，我們要不要加入他們？

Investors in bitcoin believe that because there is a theoretical cap on the number of bitcoins that can ever be mined,

比特幣的投資者認為，因為比特幣的開採數量有一個理論上限。

the cryptocurrency will become increasingly valuable at a time when central banks have been

加密貨幣將變得越來越有價值，而此時各國央行已

printing more money than ever before to arrest the economic fallout from the pandemic.

印製比以往更多的鈔票，以阻止疫情對經濟的影響。

That's why people sometimes call bitcoin 'digital gold'.

這就是為什麼人們有時會把比特幣稱為 "數字黃金"。

Many central banks are worried that the widespread adoption

許多央行擔心，廣泛採用的

of these independent cryptocurrencies could weaken their control over the financial system.

這些獨立加密貨幣的可能會削弱他們對金融系統的控制。

This could cause financial instability, especially because cryptocurrencies do not have

這可能會導致金融不穩定，特別是由於加密貨幣沒有

the legal or the regulatory safeguards that central bank money does. So why not issue a digital currency of their own?

央行貨幣的法律或監管保障。那麼為什麼不發行自己的數字貨幣呢？

Currently, regular bank deposits, cash and cryptocurrencies issued by the private sector,

目前，銀行定期存款、現金和私人部門發行的加密貨幣。

such as Diem and Bitcoin, all have a few features that make them useful,

如Diem和Bitcoin，都有一些功能，使它們很有用。

but the hope is that publicly available CBDCs would have all these desirable characteristics.

但希望公開的社區發展中心能夠具備所有這些理想的特點。

Unlike your savings in a commercial bank, which rely on the bank's promise to fulfill,

不像你在商業銀行的存款，靠銀行的承諾來實現。

CBDCs are recognized by law and backed by the power of the central bank, which cannot go bankrupt.

央行是法律認可的，有央行的權力做後盾，央行不能破產。

For example, if a commercial bank collapses, part of your savings could potentially be wiped out.

例如，如果一家商業銀行倒閉，你的部分積蓄就有可能化為烏有。

But this wouldn't be the case for CBDCs, which could be as trusted as cash, as convenient as a payment app,

但對於銀監會來說就不是這樣了，銀監會可以像現金一樣值得信賴，像支付應用一樣方便。

yet also benefit from the same blockchain technology which underpins cryptocurrencies.

卻也受益於支撐加密貨幣的同一區塊鏈技術。

And just like cash, CBDCs could be distributed through commercial banks, avoiding too much disruption to the financial system

而且就像現金一樣，CBDC可以通過商業銀行進行分銷，避免對金融系統造成太大幹擾。

or the central bank having to deal directly with many millions of citizens and businesses.

或者說央行要直接面對千千萬萬的市民和企業。

Think of bank notes, which are the closest equivalent to central bank digital currencies that we have today.

想想銀行票據，它是最接近我們今天的央行數字貨幣的等價物。

Except that they are on paper, of course. This is money that is issued by the central bank

當然，除了它們是紙上的。這是中央銀行發行的貨幣。

and used daily in retail payments. The central bank sells bank notes to the commercial banks,

並每天用於零售支付。中央銀行向商業銀行出售鈔票。

and then the commercial banks distribute bank notes through ATMs to their clients.

再由商業銀行通過ATM機向客戶發放銀行票據。

This means that everyone could have access to this digital currency, which could bring a lot of benefits.

這意味著每個人都可以使用這種數字貨幣，這可能帶來很多好處。

It could make payments faster, allowing for immediate settlements

它可以加快付款速度，實現即時結算。

and no processing delays. And it could also make payments cheaper.

且無處理延遲。而且還可以讓支付更便宜。

In the U.S., the aggregate cost of making retail payments ranges from 0.5% to 0.9% of GDP.

在美國，零售支付的總成本佔GDP的0.5%到0.9%不等。

Digital currencies would reduce those costs.

數字貨幣將降低這些成本。

It also means that more people could have access to electronic payments.

這也意味著更多的人可以使用電子支付。

Currently, over 1.5 billion adults across the globe don't have access to the financial system

目前，全球有超過15億成年人無法使用金融系統。

and even in an advanced economy such as the U.S., more than 6% of Americans don't have a bank account.

而即使在美國這樣的發達經濟體，也有超過6%的美國人沒有銀行賬戶。

Issuing digital currencies could also make it easier for governments to deliver stimulus checks,

發行數字貨幣也可以讓政府更容易地交付刺激性支票。

or even go one step further and make targeted payments to those deemed most in need.

甚至更進一步，對那些被認為最需要的人進行鍼對性的支付。

So how soon could central bank digital currencies become a reality?

那麼央行數字貨幣多久能成為現實呢？

China is the major economy which is most advanced in its CBDC development.

中國是CBDC發展最先進的主要經濟體。

The People's Bank of China has been running tests of its digital currency since April 2020

中國人民銀行自2020年4月起開展數字貨幣的測試工作

with the help of four banks in the country. Tens of thousands of consumers have already

在國內四家銀行的幫助下。已經有數萬名消費者

been involved with the pilot, spending two billion yuan in over four million transactions.

一直參與試點，在400多萬筆交易中花費20億元。

For China, it could also be a means of re-asserting control over a financial system

對中國來說，這也可能是重新實現對金融體系控制的一種手段。

challenged by the rapid growth of fintech companies

受到金融科技公司快速發展的挑戰。

Ant Pay and WeChat, these are the dominant payment technologies in China,

螞蟻支付、微信支付，這些都是中國主流的支付技術。

and they are in the hands of Alibaba and Tencent, and if Beijing can wrest that back then I think they will.

而且他們掌握在阿里巴巴和騰訊的手中，如果北京能把這一切奪回來，那麼我想他們會。

And the way that it's set up, the e-yuan, is that it will still be effectively very integrated

而它的設置方式，電子元，是它仍然會有效地非常綜合的

with the commercial banks but it is effectively a direct challenge to the payment technologies,

與商業銀行，但這實際上是對支付技術的直接挑戰。

they are trying to ultimately displace them. The e-yuan's going to have its own digital wallet

他們正試圖最終取代它們。電子元將有自己的數字錢包。

at the commercial bank and over time people will probably just find it more convenient

在商業銀行，隨著時間的推移，人們可能會發現它更方便。

to use that, and thereby displacing Ant Pay, for example.

來使用，從而取代螞蟻支付，例如。

There may also be a geopolitical consideration for China, providing a mechanism to shift away from using the U.S. dollar.

對中國來說，可能還有一個地緣政治方面的考慮，提供了一個機制，讓中國不再使用美元。

There is no doubt that Beijing views the U.S. dollar as a strategic advantage the U.S. has.

毫無疑問，北京將美元視為美國的戰略優勢。

The problem is that most of the trade, the real world trade, is denominated and invoiced in U.S. dollars, right,

問題是，大部分的貿易，真實世界的貿易，都是以美元來計價和開票的吧。

and China sees this and it's hard for them to sort of push renminbi into the global financial system,

而中國也看到了這一點，他們很難將人民幣某種程度上推向全球金融體系。

the global trading system, but they're trying.

全球貿易體系，但他們在嘗試。

But if they had a digital currency that would be potentially a really fascinating angle.

但如果他們有一種數字貨幣，那將是一個潛在的非常迷人的角度。

So you can see, if it has got a technological advantage, that perhaps this is a way for people to think

所以你可以看到，如果它有技術優勢的話，可能這也是人們思考的一種方式。

about the renminbi in a different way and perhaps, you know, ultimately start to chip away at hegemonic status of the dollar.

以不同的方式來看待人民幣，也許，你知道，最終會開始削弱美元的霸權地位。

But it's not just China.

但這不僅僅是中國的問題。

The European Central Bank has plans for a digital euro, although it may be a few years before it is available.

歐洲央行有數字歐元的計劃，不過可能還需要幾年時間才能實現。

We are going to have to address all the issues of anti-money laundering, financing of terrorism,

我們必須解決反洗錢、資助恐怖主義的所有問題。

privacy of users and all their information, the appropriate technology that will carry that digital currency,

用戶及其所有資訊的隱私，適當的技術，將承載該數字貨幣。

and this is, you know, a project that could probably take us, two, three, four years before it is launched.

而這是，你知道，一個項目，可能需要我們， 兩，三，四年才會推出。

This has got people wondering whether issuing a central bank digital currency

這讓人們不禁要問，發行央行數字貨幣是不是

could interfere with the effectiveness of monetary policy.

可能會干擾貨幣政策的有效性。

Central banks have addressed CBDCs so far, really as part of a payments discussion.

到目前為止，央行對CBDC的處理，確實是作為支付討論的一部分。

That's a discussion for monetary policy committees, for the ECB governing council,

這是對貨幣政策委員會、歐洲央行管理委員會的討論。

whether they want to use CBDC or not, but it's too early to have that discussion.

是否要使用CBDC，但現在討論這個問題還為時過早。

But theoretically if the central bank wanted, they could also pass on negative rates

但理論上，如果央行願意，他們也可以轉嫁負利率

to the holders of central bank digital currencies?

對央行數字貨幣的持有者?

Think of CBDC as being the future of bank notes, bank notes do not bear interest.

把CBDC看成是未來的銀行票據，銀行票據不計息。

And so, if you follow that line of reasoning then CBDC should not bear interest.

所以，如果你按照這個思路，那麼銀監會就不應該承擔利息。

And if you want CBDC to bear interest then you're creating something different.

而如果你想讓CBDC承擔利息，那麼你就會創造一些不同的東西。

A lot depends on how much people would use CBDCs, and no central bank wants them

很大程度上取決於人們會用多少CBDC，沒有一家央行願意用它

to completely replace traditional cash, but rather to compliment it.

以完全取代傳統的現金，而是對其進行補充。

One risk associated with CBDCs is that in an extreme situation, such as after a financial crash,

與CBDC相關的一個風險是，在極端情況下，如金融崩潰後。

you could see people withdrawing their deposits from commercial banks

你可以看到人們從商業銀行提取存款。

and opting to store their money in digital currencies backed by the central bank.

並選擇將錢存儲在由央行支持的數字貨幣中。

Trouble would be if CBDC would replace bank deposits in a large amount

麻煩的是，如果銀監會將大量的銀行存款置換出來

because then what happens is that savers could shift their savings from bank account to CBDC.

因為這樣一來，儲戶就可以將自己的儲蓄從銀行賬戶轉移到銀監會。

Then banks could have a problem for funding. This might have an effect on the financing of whole economy.

那麼銀行的資金就會出現問題。這可能會對整個經濟的融資產生影響。

People can shift saving from bank account to CBDC just with a click. This would be very dangerous obviously.

人們只需點擊一下，就可以將銀行賬戶的存款轉移到CBDC。這顯然會非常危險。

As we move towards a more cashless society, will central bank digital currencies ever become

當我們走向一個更加無現金的社會時，央行數字貨幣是否會成

as trusted and as convenient as bank notes? Quite possibly, though it may take months, maybe even years.

像鈔票一樣值得信賴和方便？很有可能，雖然可能需要幾個月，甚至幾年。

The trust in private money is built on the trust in the currency

對私房錢的信任是建立在對貨幣的信任上的。

and the fact that behind that there is a central bank which has tools to keep the value of the currency.

以及背後有一箇中央銀行，它有工具來保持貨幣的價值。

We have to buy this trust and that's why we need to stay in the economy

我們必須購買這種信任，這就是為什麼我們需要留在經濟中的原因

and the way to stay in the economy is to make sure people trust us.

而保持經濟的方法就是讓人們信任我們。

Thank you for watching. Would you ever use a central bank digital currency?

謝謝你的觀看。你會使用央行數字貨幣嗎？

Let us know in the comments, and don't forget to subscribe.

請在評論中告訴我們，別忘了訂閱。