The brawl reportedly took place five days ago in the northern sick Um which borders Tibet.

據報道，這起鬥毆事件5天前發生在與西藏接壤的北部病庵。

There have been several episodes of conflict between Chinese and Indian soldiers in the past along the line of actual control.

過去中印兩國阿兵哥在實際控制線上曾多次發生衝突。

The Chinese Foreign Ministry would not comment on the latest report but gave this statement.

中國外交部對最新報道不予置評，但給出了這樣的說法。

Have listen, Queen is without the duty to Juan.

聽著，皇后沒有義務對胡安負責。

I want to stress that China's border troops are committed to upholding peace on stability along the border with India.

我想強調的是，中國邊防部隊致力於維護中印邊境穩定和平。

We urged the Indian sides work in the same way with us and refrain from any action that may escalate or complicates the situation.

我們敦促印度方面以同樣的方式與我們合作，不要採取任何可能使局勢升級或複雜化的行動。

We hope that both sides will take the correct precautions to manage their differences.

希望雙方採取正確的防範措施，管控好分歧。

The response there from the Chinese Foreign Ministry Let's speak now to Shashank Joshi, who's the defense editor of The Economist.

中國外交部的迴應 讓我們現在來談談Shashank Joshi，他是《經濟學人》的國防編輯。

He joins us live now from London.

他現在在倫敦為我們做現場直播。

Shashank.

Shashank

Thanks very much for joining us.

非常感謝您的加入。

I mean, frankly, this has been a flashpoint for decades.

我的意思是，坦率地說，這幾十年來一直是一個熱點。

Absolutely.

絕對的

The two countries fought a major war over their disputed border in 1962.

1962年，兩國為爭奪邊界而大打出手。

Uh, then it was relatively stable for many decades after the 19 eighties.

呃，那麼在1980年代以後的幾十年裡，它是相對穩定的。

Which is why last year's events Ah, major, indeed, a deadly clash between the two armies in the gallon River valley, not in sick him, but much further to the west in a province called Ladakh.

這就是為什麼去年的事件啊，主要的，確實，兩軍之間的致命衝突，在加侖河谷，不在生病的他，但更進一步的西部一個叫拉達克的省份。

That was why that was such a big deal.

所以才會有這麼大的動靜。

It indicated that the, um the ability of these two countries to manage their border dispute peacefully without weapons, without guns, without fatalities and loss of life that it had essentially collapsed.

它表明，這兩個國家在沒有武器、沒有槍支、沒有死亡和生命損失的情況下和平處理邊界爭端的能力基本上已經崩潰了。

Andi, it wasn't just the gallon clash.

安迪，這不僅僅是加侖的衝突。

We also saw the first ever use off firearms since the 19 seventies on that border last year.

去年，我們還看到了自七十年代以來，在該邊境地區首次使用火器。

I think what we have to remember here is in the context of this latest clash is that there are still very substantial numbers of armed forces on both sides that are still deployed to the front lines very near the disputed line of actual control, as it's called even now, even in these very harsh winter months.

我認為，在最近這場衝突中，我們必須記住的是，雙方仍有相當數量的武裝部隊部署在有爭議的實際控制線附近的前線，即使是在非常嚴酷的冬季，也是如此。

And so the risk of these flare ups is going to be ever present.

所以這些突發事件的風險將永遠存在。

Is this a ljust about sovereignty?

這是一個關於主權的問題嗎？

Uh, of course it is.

呃，當然是這樣。

partly about sovereignty.

部分是關於主權的。

This is territory that both sides claim.

這是雙方都主張的領土。

It is the kind of meeting point of empires, the British Empire theme, Chinese empires and so, like Aled borderlands between empires.

它是一種帝國的交匯點，大英帝國主題，中華帝國等，就像阿萊德在帝國之間的邊陲。

Um, it's a very blurred, fuzzy area, and you have to rising Asian powers, both nuclear powers, both with large, rising economies that want to stake their claim in the world, um, want to lay claim to this and don't want to give an inch to the other side.

嗯，這是一個非常模糊的，模糊的區域，你必須要崛起的亞洲大國，都是核大國，都有龐大的，正在崛起的經濟體，他們想要在世界上建立自己的主張，嗯，想要對這個提出主張，不想給對方一寸土地。

But I think it's also about a much wider sense of distrust and hostility that has erupted between India and China in recent years.

但我認為，這也是關於近年來中印之間爆發的更廣泛的不信任感和敵意。

That is not just about land in these mountainous areas that that has very limited practical utility.

那不僅僅是關於這些山區的土地，那實際作用非常有限。

It's also about things like India's protection of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan movement, which China considers to be a separatist menace.

這也是關於印度對達賴喇嘛和西藏運動的保護等事情，中國認為西藏運動是一種分裂主義威脅。

It's about India's increasing diplomatic proximity to the United States, China's rival on about competition in the Indian Ocean, with an increasing number of Chinese ships flooding into those traditional maritime areas to India south.

這是關於印度在外交上越來越接近美國，中國在關於印度洋競爭上的對手，越來越多的中國船隻湧入印度南部的那些傳統海域。

So, in other words, it isn't just about sovereignty.

所以，換句話說，這不僅僅是主權的問題。

It's about geopolitical competition as much as anything else.

這是關於地緣政治競爭的，就像其他任何事情一樣。

So when we're seeing these sorts of clashes along that border from both sides.

所以，當我們看到這種衝突 從雙方的邊界。

E is they a genuine concern then that misunderstandings, miscalculations could could lead toa actual war.

他們是否真的擔心誤解、誤判會導致實際的戰爭。

There is, I think, for a long time that fear was suppressed by the fact that Aziz biggest this dispute.

有，我想，很長一段時間，這種恐懼被阿齊茲最大的這一爭端所壓制。

Waas the serious as it waas The two sides had agreed lots of things to ease tensions.

雙方已經達成了很多共識，以緩解緊張局勢。

For example, uh, they had agreed that soldiers on patrol would not use their weapons.

比如說，呃，他們已經同意，巡邏的阿兵哥不會使用他們的武器。

They wouldn't fire their weapons under any circumstances.

他們在任何情況下都不會開槍。

They had agreed, for example, that if a A patrol came across another patrol in a disputed area, they would make their statements say, you're in my territory, you're in my territory, but then they'd go their separate ways, they wouldn't follow each other and you'd built up this edifice of diplomatic agreement to lower the temperature.

比如說，他們曾約定，如果一個A巡邏隊在爭議地區遇到另一個巡邏隊，他們就會發表聲明說，你在我的地盤，你在我的地盤，但是他們就會分道揚鑣，他們不會跟隨對方，你就會建立起這個外交協議的大廈來降低溫度。

What I think last year showed is that amid all of these wider diplomatic tensions that I mentioned not just to do with the border, but to do with trade and an ideology and geopolitical competition.

我認為去年的情況表明，在我提到的所有這些更廣泛的外交緊張局勢中，不僅與邊界有關，而且與貿易、意識形態和地緣政治競爭有關。

Those undertakings have broken down and therefore even very small clashes.

這些事業已經破滅，是以即使是很小的衝突。

Orbits of friction do have the ability that the risk of spiraling into something much bigger, with lots of firepower deployed in pretty close proximity between these two states.

摩擦球確實有能力，風險螺旋式上升到更大的東西，在這兩個狀態之間相當接近的地方部署了很多火力。

Shashank Joshi Thank you so much for joining us and for your analysis there.

Shashank Joshi 謝謝你參加我們的節目，也謝謝你在那裡的分析。