So often the currents of this torrid year have flowed.

所以，往往在這曲折的歲月裡，流淌著這股潮流。

Most chop early through schools tasked more than any other public service with trying to be normal when things or anything.

大多數砍早通過學校的任務比任何其他公共服務與試圖正常的時候，事情或任何東西。

But into this chronology of woe has come a late effort to arrange mass testing in schools by the start of January news, which dropped into heads in boxes on the last day of term.

但進入這個悲哀的年表，到1月份開始，學校安排大規模測試的新聞，在學期的最後一天掉進了箱子裡的頭。

Many heads are incredulous.

很多人頭都不相信。

We have to get parental consent if young people are gonna have the testing, So that's a logistical nightmare already.

如果年輕人要做測試，我們必須得到父母的同意，所以這已經是一個後勤方面的噩夢了。

If you look at school sites their massive because of the zoning and the bubbles, we've actually moved to three entrances.

如果你看看學校的場地，他們的規模很大，因為分區和保麗龍，我們實際上已經移動到三個入口。

So we're thinking, well, where will that testing station go?

所以我們在想那個檢測站會去哪裡呢？

Does it go with the year 12 entrance or with the year seven entrance?

是跟12年入學的還是跟7年入學的？

Should it go in our amazing sports hall that actually takes away teaching space?

是否應該放在我們神奇的運動館裡，實際上是佔用了教學空間？

So that's another challenge.

所以這又是一個挑戰。

So the logistics of trying to piece together where everything is going to go is mind blowing.

所以，想要拼湊出所有東西的去向，其後勤工作是令人瞠目結舌的。

Spoke to the department education today, he said that teachers won't have to actually be responsible for conducting the tests themselves, right?

今天跟系裡的教育說了，他說老師不會真的要自己負責進行考試吧？

But then they're saying that they're saying that anomie of volunteers will be able to do it on support staff.

但他們又說，他們說志願者的異常將能在支持人員上做。

How credible do you think that is?

你覺得這有多可信？

I'm going to say, I think it's nonsense.

我想說，我覺得這是胡說八道。

This disdain goes much wider than this corner of north London.

這種蔑視比倫敦北部的這個角落要廣泛得多。

Somehow, this announcement managed to do what almost never happens.

不知何故，這個公告成功做到了幾乎從未發生過的事情。

It brought all the teachers unions on educational, employers, organizations together, issuing a joint statement condemning the government's plans as unworkable and chaotic.

它把所有的教育、僱主、組織的教師工會聚集在一起，發表聯合聲明，譴責政府的計劃是不可行和混亂的。

Further anger came today, when news not revealed.

今天進一步憤怒的是，當消息沒有透露。

The Department for Education was offering £1000 for civil servants toe work over the Christmas period to help set the system up with no equivalent for heads or teachers.

教育部在聖誕節期間為公務員提供1000英鎊的工作，以幫助建立該系統，而校長或教師則沒有相應的工作。

But the backdrop and genesis of all this is as follows.

但這一切的背景和起因如下。

Secondary school students have the highest infection rate of any age group.

在所有年齡組中，中學生的感染率最高。

Ministers want this testing in place to bring that down and keep schools open.

部長們希望這次測試能夠到位，把這一點降下來，讓學校繼續開放。

Others, and are beginning to think that that might not be possible.

其他的人，也開始認為這可能是不可能的。

It's clear that secondary schools now are, you know, places where cove it is caught on spread on.

很明顯，現在的中學是，你知道的，灣它被抓到傳播的地方。

Do we know that secondary peoples can transmit the virus very effectively, uh, into their families and into the community.

我們是否知道，第二代人可以非常有效地將病毒傳播到他們的家庭和社區。

So, um, if the government doesn't get a grip on if we don't start reducing co vid levels amongst his age group, yes, I think there's every possibility that will be in another lock down on schools will be in that, too.

所以，嗯，如果政府沒有得到一個控制 如果我們不開始減少co vid水準 其中他的年齡組，是的，我認為有每一個可能性 這將是在另一個鎖定學校 將在這一點，太。

But government says that's precisely why they want to bring in testing.

但政府說，這正是他們要引入測試的原因。

I would imagine.

我可以想象

Well, then we agree that the government should bring in testing.

那麼，我們同意政府應該引入測試。

Absolutely, but not like this.

當然，但不是這樣的。

One thing's for sure.

有一件事是肯定的。

Relations between school staff in the department for education, never warm.

教育部門的學校工作人員之間的關係，從來都不溫不火。

Announced somewhere near sub Arctic DF sources say that they're cognizant of what a huge problem staff absence has been.

宣佈在附近的某處子北極DF消息稱，他們認識到職員缺席什麼大問題。

What a huge problem pupil absence has been there, cognizant of the fact that there could be a spike in the early part of January and they have this new testing capacity, so why not use it to ameliorate those problems?

學生缺課問題一直存在，認知到1月初可能會出現一個高峰，他們有這個新的測試能力，為什麼不利用它來改善這些問題呢？

And that is all laudable.

這都是值得稱讚的。

The problem is that it comes at the end off a year where the goodwill that would be required from within the teaching profession to get all of this new system up and running by the start of January has, after this year all but evaporated for so many of us.

問題是，這是在一年結束的時候發生的，在這一年裡，教師行業內部為在1月份開始之前建立和運行所有這些新系統所需要的善意，在這一年之後，對我們許多人來說幾乎都蒸發了。

It's been a year to forget.

這一年，讓人難以忘懷。

But we know in our bones we won't not least because we know it's spirit endures that January bodes ill If it's governments hope that mass school testing might make the coldest month more bearable, might avert.

但我們知道在我們的骨頭，我們不會至少因為我們知道它的精神忍受一月預示著不好如果它的政府希望大規模的學校測試可能會使最寒冷的月份更容易忍受，可能會避免。

Locked down might keep the school lights on.

鎖定可能會讓學校的燈一直亮著。

They may need to think again.

他們可能需要再考慮一下。

There's Goodall there, So what should we be anticipating in schools and elsewhere?

有古道爾在，那麼我們在學校和其他地方應該期待什麼呢？

In January, I'm joined by Baroness Louise Casey, former government adviser on social welfare, on Sir Mark Waldport, the former chief scientific adviser to the government who sits on stage.

1月，前政府社會福利顧問路易絲-凱西男爵夫人將和我一起討論坐在臺上的前政府首席科學顧問馬克-瓦爾德波特爵士。

Sir Mark, let's start with you tonight As we go on air.

馬克爵士，今晚我們先從你開始，因為我們要直播。

There are reports that this mutant strain of covert 19 that has been spreading the Southeast that it's sufficiently strong that the government may be thinking about bringing forward restrictions rather more quickly.

有報道稱，這種隱蔽19號的變異菌株，已經在東南地區蔓延，它足夠強大，政府可能會考慮更快地提前限制。

What do you know about this strain?

你對這個菌種瞭解多少？

What's so powerful about it is it's so widespread that it might change the policy well, I mean, what we know is that there are two factors that determine their transmission of this disease.

它的強大之處在於它是如此的廣泛，它可能會改變政策好，我的意思是，我們知道的是，有兩個因素決定了他們對這種疾病的傳播。

One of these is the properties of the virus.

其中之一就是病毒的特性。

On the other is the way people behave and how they socially distance on DSO.

另一方面是人們在DSO上的行為方式和社交距離。

What happens with viruses that they do naturally mutate all the time on the ones that are likely to do well are the ones that increased transmission.

病毒的情況是什麼，他們做自然變異的所有時間上的那些可能做得很好的是那些增加傳輸。

And so we know this is a new variant.

所以我們知道這是一個新的變種。

It has been seen in other countries, but it seems to be quite widespread, which suggests that it has got transmission advantage.

在其他國家也曾出現過，但似乎相當普遍，這說明它具有傳播優勢。

Andi scientists are working extremely hard to work out what's going on.

安迪的科學家們正在極力地研究到底發生了什麼。

Basically, there are three possibilities.

基本上，有三種可能。

The first is that it does transmit more easily, the second that it might give a different pattern of infection.

第一，它確實更容易傳播，第二，它可能會給人一種不同的感染模式。

Um, Onda, third that it might become resistant to a vaccine now, the latter to seem rather unlikely at the moment.

嗯，昂達，第三，它現在可能會對疫苗產生抗藥性，後者在目前看來相當不可能。

But it does definitely is impossible that this transmits more easily on.

但它確實絕對是不可能的，這傳送更容易上。

Of course, it will make the social distancing even more critical on DSO.

當然，這將使DSO上的社交距離更加關鍵。

How will it change January what we face in January, if this is the case, well, you know, the bottom line is that the situation is serious At the moment, it's obvious that the infection numbers are very high indeed.

它將如何改變1月份我們在1月份面臨的情況，如果是這樣的話，嗯，你知道，底線是情況很嚴重目前，很明顯，感染人數確實非常高。

At the moment, um, it's rising quite rapidly in London, in the Southeast, in the east of England, andan.

目前，嗯，它的上升相當迅速 在倫敦，在東南地區，在英格蘭東部，和an。

Fortunately, even in the parts of the country where the infection is coming under control, the cases remained stubbornly high.

幸運的是，即使是在該國感染得到控制的地區，病例仍然居高不下。

And so the NHS is under great pressure.

所以NHS的壓力很大。

Admissions are high on, but sadly, admissions, inevitably, in a proportion cases turn into death.

錄取率很高，但可悲的是，錄取率，不可避免地在一定比例的情況下變成了死亡。

So we're going into January in quite a serious situation where we do need quite strong measures to socially distance on.

所以我們在進入1月份的時候，在一個相當嚴重的情況下，我們確實需要相當有力的措施，在社會上保持距離。

If the virus is changing, then that makes it even more imperative before we bring Louise Casey on this issue off at schools testing.

如果病毒正在發生變化，那麼在我們把路易絲-凱西就這個問題在學校測試之前，這就更加勢在必行了。

How realistic is that?

這有多現實？

A strategy that's gonna work?

一個會成功的策略？

Well, I mean, it's first.

嗯，我的意思是，這是第一個。

It is an enormous logistic challenge on if you like.

這是一個巨大的物流挑戰上，如果你喜歡。

One of the really serious capacity issues is staff in the NHS and teachers in schools, and we know that they're under immense pressure.

真正嚴重的能力問題之一是NHS的工作人員和學校的教師，我們知道他們承受著巨大的壓力。

The second thing about the testing is that it's not a complete magic bullet, so the sensitivity off the lateral flow tests that's being used means that they only pick up somewhere between maybe 50% and maybe 65% of the people that are most infectious, so it will miss cases.

關於測試的第二件事是它不是一個完整的魔彈，所以正在使用的橫向流動測試的靈敏度關閉意味著他們只拿起某處之間也許 50%和也許 65%的人是最有感染力的，所以它會錯過案例。

But on the other hand, it will discover cases that haven't been found by other means.

但另一方面，它也會發現其他手段沒有發現的案例。

But it's not the complete answer.

但這不是完整的答案。

Okay, Louise Casey.

好吧，路易絲-凱西。

So, I mean, if testing has its challenges, is the answer to delay the return to school even further.

所以，我的意思是，如果測試有其挑戰，是不是要把返校時間進一步延後。

Well, I'm not uneducated, inal specialist, but just listening to that, you know, the bottom line is that we have to keep the schools open as best we can that we know that the impact on particularly kids from disadvantaged backgrounds is really, really profound.

好吧，我不是沒有受過教育的專家，但只是聽了，你知道，底線是，我們必須保持學校開放，我們可以，我們知道，對特別是來自弱勢背景的孩子的影響是真的，真的很深刻。

So, you know, I'm up for testing, and I'm up for testing from day one.

所以，你知道，我準備好了測試，我從第一天開始就準備好了測試。

What I'm not up for is how late in the day this decision was made as, um, just been said.

我不看好的是，這個決定做得有多晚，嗯，剛才已經說過了。

But market just said that the huge logistical implications for schools not help today, Tonight, by the Department of Education, offering £1000 bonus to civil servants that are prepared to work on the on the project over Christmas.

但市場只是說，巨大的後勤影響的學校不幫助今天，今晚，由教育部，提供1000英鎊獎金的公務員，準備在聖誕節期間的項目上工作。

But that same offer not being made to colleagues that who are, you know, in the teaching profession.

但是，同樣的提議沒有被提出來的同事，誰是，你知道，在教學專業。

So I think the government just wobbles all the time around, making strategic decisions and seeing them through Williams to bring in the Army centralized issue.

所以我覺得政府就是一直在搖擺不定，做戰略決策，通過威廉姆斯看到了他們的戰略決策，才把軍隊集中的問題引進來。

Get it sorted?

解決了嗎？

Yes, well, e think somebody today said that it often feels a bit more like Dad's Army than it does about the Army, and I think I'll leave it at that.

是的，好吧，我想今天有人說過，它經常給人的感覺更像爸爸的軍隊，而不是軍隊，我想我就不說了。

Okay, let's talk in your specialist area the social consequences of a possible third lock down.

好吧，讓我們在你的專業領域談談可能的第三次鎖定的社會後果。

I mean, it's been terrible for, obviously, for incomes, poverty.

我的意思是，它是可怕的， 顯然，對於收入，貧困。

What the consequences of a third lock down?

第三次鎖定的後果是什麼？

Well, I mean, the starting point here is this that pre the pandemic, we had high numbers of people in poverty, very high numbers of people now homeless on DPI, people living in temporary accommodation, families essentially locked up in single rooms with all of their family.

好吧，我的意思是，這裡的出發點是，在流行病之前，我們有大量的貧困人口，非常多的人現在無家可歸的DPI，人們住在臨時住所，家庭基本上鎖定在單間與所有的家人。

And if they're lucky and microwave like it wasn't great before the pandemic.

如果他們運氣好，微波爐就像大流行前一樣，並不是很好。

What the pandemic has done, and particularly locked down is it's just pushed.

疫情所做的，特別是鎖定的是它只是推。

What we already knew was a problem into a really, really difficult and horrific place.

我們已經知道的是一個問題，變成一個非常非常困難和可怕的地方。

So we've got something like almost 400,000 redundancies.

是以，我們已經得到了一些像近40萬冗餘。

Additional redundancies between March and October, we've almost doubled the number of people on universal credit.

3月至10月期間的額外裁員，我們幾乎將全民信貸的人數增加了一倍。

The stretch between the haves and the have nots is now way too stretched.

現在，富人和窮人之間的距離已經拉得太長了。

And so when you go into the new Year, I think what the government needs to think about is how do we get a reset, particularly for families that are struggling on their vast numbers.

所以當你進入新的一年，我認為政府需要思考的是，我們如何獲得重置，尤其是對於那些在龐大數字上掙扎的家庭。

Now it's like these are ordinary people that you're working on the ground in trying to feed people essentially well, yeah, who thought that I would be having had a long career in public service.

現在，它像這些都是普通人 你在地面上工作 在試圖養活人們基本上好，是的，誰認為我會有 有一個長期的職業生涯在公共服務。

I'm now working in food banks and helping people who were queuing for food in the in the United Kingdom.

我現在在食物銀行工作，幫助那些在英國排隊領取食物的人。

It's like one of the legacies from this pandemic cannot be that we quadruple the number of soup kitchens and food banks.

這就像這場大流行的遺產之一，不能是我們把湯屋和食物銀行的數量增加四倍。

That would be a disgrace on.

這將是一個恥辱上。

I think what I'm trying to get across here is Ah, met a woman who was coming out of a food bank.

我想我在這裡想表達的是... ...遇到一個從食物銀行出來的女人。

I helped carry her shopping to her friend's car.

我幫她把購物的東西搬到她朋友的車上。

Clearly, she can't afford to get to him from the food bank.

顯然，她沒錢從食物銀行去找他。

Her and her partner had both bean furloughed.

她和她的搭檔都被辭退了。

They couldn't afford that 20% drop.

他們承受不了那20%的降幅。

Now she is on universal credit.

現在，她正在享受全民信貸。

She waited 2.5 months for that universal credit to come through.

她等了2.5個月，那個全民信貸才通過。

Uh, I can't tell you how how awful her life waas Andi.

呃，我無法告訴你她的生活有多糟糕，安迪。

She literally has been surviving simply on that food bank I saw another woman walk in on was so, so hungry on.

她從字面上一直生存簡單的食物銀行 我看到另一個女人走在是如此，所以餓了。

She was a very thin woman on She stuffed a cake directly into her mouth because she was that hungry.

她是一個很瘦的女人，在她直接把一個蛋糕塞進嘴裡，因為她是那麼的餓。

Government would argue that they've extended the fellow scheme at 80% through till the end of April.

政府會辯解說，他們已經將80%的同伴計劃延長至4月底。

Now it's more than a year of those subsidies.

現在已經是一年多的那些補貼了。

Um good, Good.

嗯好，好。

They should.

他們應該。

They should but send another other support packages for commercial firms.

他們應該但發送另一個商業公司的其他支持包。

So the issue here is that in the preceding decade to this pandemic, the amount of cuts austerity brought to public services onto individual incomes of people on welfare support literally have.

是以，這裡的問題是，在這一流行病之前的十年中，緊縮政策給公共服務帶來的削減量，對接受福利支持的人的個人收入造成了巨大的影響。

We're all in this storm Bright called this pandemic.

我們都在這場風暴中，布萊特稱這場大流行病。

Some of us Aaron yachts on some of us on rafts that off that are literally sinking.

我們有些人亞倫遊艇上的一些我們在木筏上，關閉，是字面上的下沉。

We knew before the pandemic that if you live in a deprived area and you're a woman, you'll have eight less years of your life than a woman who lives in a non deprived area.

我們在流行病之前就知道，如果你住在貧困地區，而且你是個女人，你會比住在非貧困地區的女人少活8年。

Same statistics.

同樣的統計數據。

What the pandemic has done is pulled that even further and further apart.

大疫所做的就是將這一點越拉越遠。

Let me just bringing Sir Mark.

讓我把馬克爵士。

So I mean, obviously very costly in terms of the social infrastructure.

是以，我的意思是，在社會基礎設施方面，顯然成本很高。

Three.

三號

Idea of an extra lock down.

多了一個鎖定的想法。

I mean, but, you know, Neil Ferguson, your colleagues or former colleague onstage says that a We have to be even tougher now than we were in November.

我的意思是，但是，你知道，尼爾-弗格森，你的同事或前同事在臺上說，我們現在必須比11月時更強硬。

Yeah, well, I mean, the point is, you think it's OK, but of course, the other issue is that it's that it's those socially deprived and disadvantaged people who are the most severely hit by coronavirus as well.

是啊，我的意思是，關鍵是，你認為它是確定的，但當然，另一個問題是，它是那些社會貧困和弱勢群體誰是最嚴重的打擊冠狀病毒也。

So if you want to see an illustration of the social determines of disease, coronaviruses it, and so it is a terrible situation.

所以，如果你想看到疾病的社會決定因素的說明，冠狀病毒它，所以它是一個可怕的情況。

But it does.

但確實如此。

This point is absolutely correct.

這一點是絕對正確的。