But let's look ahead to next week when we will hear from the Federal Reserve will.

但讓我們展望下週，我們將聽到美聯儲將。

Joining me is Kevin Nicholson.

和我一起的是凱文-尼科爾森

He is the co chief investment officer for global fixed income at Riverfront Investments.

他是Riverfront Investments全球固定收益的聯合首席投資官。

So, Kevin, um, we will hear from the Federal Reserve next week.

那麼，凱文，嗯，我們下週會聽到美聯儲的消息。

What should we expect?

我們應該期待什麼？

Yeah, I think the market is expecting the Fed to pivot and start moved their bond buying further out on the curve.

是的，我認為市場預期美聯儲將轉向並開始將他們的債券購買量進一步向曲線外移。

And this should also help keep interest rates maintained at current levels or slightly higher on putting a cap on them.

而這也應該有助於將利率維持在目前的水準上，或者在設置上限上略微提高。

Largely because, you know, the Fed does not want interest rates to go to high because the mortgage market has really taken off here.

主要是因為，你知道，美聯儲不希望利率過高，因為抵押貸款市場在這裡已經真正起飛。

And that has provided ah, consumers with a lot of their net wealth over the past few months, especially as we sit here waiting for stimulus for the economy.

而這為啊，消費者提供了大量的淨財富，在過去的幾個月裡，尤其是當我們坐在這裡等待經濟刺激的時候。

And how much of a shift do you expect from for the Fed to shift the buying from, uh, to the long end?

而你期望美聯儲將買盤從，呃，轉移到長端，會有多大的轉變？

Because I noticed the last two days we've seen Treasury yields come down.

因為我注意到這兩天我們看到國債收益率下降了。

I know earlier this week, you know, 10 year note was hovering around that 1% but we're not doing that anymore, right?

我知道本週早些時候，你知道，10年票據是徘徊在1%左右，但我們不這樣做了，對不對？

Well, I mean, a couple of things have happened, and when you look internationally, we have 18/18 trillion dollars worth of negative yielding debt out there right now.

好吧，我的意思是，有幾件事情已經發生了，當你看國際上，我們有18/18萬億美元的負收益債務在那裡現在。

And so you're going That is gonna put a cap on interest rates here in the US in itself.

所以你要去 這是要去把一個上限 在美國的利率本身。

Because foreigners, they're gonna want to shift and purchase Treasury.

因為外國人，他們會想轉移和購買國債。

Uh, here in the US because they have negative, you know, 10 year rates in their countries s.

呃，在美國這裡，因為他們有負的， 你知道，10年的利率在他們的國家S。

So I think that that's part of it.

所以我認為這也是其中的一部分。

I don't think that you're going to see the Fed make a wholehearted shift all at once.

我不認為你會看到美聯儲一下子做出全心全意的轉變。

It will be something that will happen very gradually.

這將是一件非常逐漸發生的事情。

And so, since your global how is the the stuff that's going on with Brexit?

那麼，既然你的全球性的是如何的東西，是怎麼回事與Brexit？

How is that likely toe impact Treasury yields here in the US?

這可能會對美國的國債收益率產生怎樣的影響？

Well, right now, I don't think that Brexit is really going to have a major impact on treasury yields right now.

好吧，現在，我不認為Brexit現在真的會對國債收益率產生重大影響。

I think that you know, Brexit has been going on since June of 2000 and 16, and I think that, you know, most people are just gotten so tired of Brexit that, um they've kind of put it on the back burner.

我認為，你知道，Brexit一直在進行自2000年6月和16，我認為，你知道，大多數人只是得到了如此厭倦的Brexit，嗯，他們已經種把它放在後面的燃燒器。

And that is not playing into their calculus is far as markets.

而這並沒有打入他們的算盤，是就市場而言。

Um, in the fixed income space is concerned.

嗯，在固定收益領域是有關。

Okay, so we have the fed meeting next week.

好吧，我們下週有美聯儲的會議。

We're still waiting to see what's gonna happen with Brexit.

我們還在等著看Brexit會發生什麼。

We get some data points.

我們得到一些數據點。

Um, retail sales.

嗯，零售額。

We get some factory numbers as well.

我們也得到一些工廠的號碼。

How is that likely to impact investor psychology?

這對投資者的心理會產生怎樣的影響？

I think that those numbers will have a big impact on investor psychology.

我認為這些數據會對投資者的心理產生很大的影響。

A large part of it.

其中很大一部分。

As you saw yesterday, you had a very weak job report.

正如你昨天看到的，你的工作報告非常薄弱。

You know, uh, jobless claims yesterday came in pretty weak.

你知道，呃，昨天的失業救濟金申請是相當弱的。

Um, and continuing claims were higher than expected.

嗯，而持續索賠比預期的要高。

And I think that looking at retail sales, that will give us an idea of how the economy is healing and how the Christmas season is going along.

而我認為，從零售額來看，這將使我們瞭解經濟的癒合情況和聖誕季的進展情況。

And if people aren't out there spending money on the holiday season, that means that Ah, lot of these folks that got this stimulus checks earlier they're running out of money now or they're starting thio or they're starting Teoh, you know, tighten their belts because they have toe have their dollars go further.

如果人們不在外面花錢過節 那就意味著很多人在之前得到了刺激經濟的支票 他們現在沒錢了 或者他們開始了Teoh 或者他們開始了Teoh，你知道，勒緊他們的腰帶 因為他們必須讓他們的錢走得更遠。

So I think that those that report next week is going to send a very important message of what's to come if we don't get further fiscal stimulus, and how is that likely to add?

所以我認為，下週的那些報告會傳遞出一個非常重要的資訊，就是如果我們沒有得到進一步的財政刺激，那會有什麼結果，怎麼可能會增加？

I mean, you mentioned the jobless claims number was up up near three month high.

我的意思是，你提到的失業救濟金人數上升了接近三個月的高點。

That came out yesterday.

昨天就出來了。

And if we get a guess, uh, a nasty retail sales number.

如果我們得到一個猜測，呃，一個討厭的零售銷售數字。

How much pressure will that add on Washington to get a stimulus deal done before Christmas?

這將給華盛頓增加多大的壓力，使其在聖誕節前完成經濟刺激協議？

I think it will put further pressure on D.

我認為這將給D帶來進一步的壓力。

C.

C.

But the problem is, is that they're running out of time.

但問題是，是他們的時間不多了。

Um, you know, they really need to get it done by the middle of next weekend.

嗯，你知道，他們真的需要得到它 完成下週末的中間。

I don't know that we really have a lot of time left for them to actually work out the fine, finer details of where they're disagreeing right now.

我不知道我們真的有很多時間留給他們去實際解決他們現在分歧的細枝末節。

And especially the market had built in stimulus priced in stimulus going into next year, more for when the Biden administration would take office and over the last week, or show it started pricing in getting stimulus in this lame duck session on show now I believe the odds of having you know stimulus happened in this lame duck session is now starting to tilt more towards the downside.

尤其是市場已經建立在刺激措施定價在刺激進入明年，更多的是當拜登政府將上任，並在上週，或顯示它開始定價在得到刺激在這個跛腳鴨會議上顯示現在我相信有你知道刺激發生在這個跛腳鴨會議的機率現在開始傾斜更多的下行。

And it's gonna be a very close call whether or not we get it.

而這將是一個非常接近的電話，我們是否得到它。

So it seems like the last couple of days the market has been stuck in between vaccine hopes.

所以這幾天市場似乎一直停留在疫苗的希望之間。

And, uh, the Vassil ation has going on going on with the stimulus.

而且，呃，Vassil ation有繼續下去 與刺激。

So where are we likely to break to the upside or break to the downside?

那麼，我們有可能在哪裡向上突破或向下突破呢？

Well, it's all going to depend if we if we can get stimulus Prior thio year in, then you would I would we would get that Santa Claus rally, so to speak.

好吧，這一切都將取決於如果我們 如果我們能得到刺激前的一年，那麼你會，我會 我們會得到聖誕老人的集會，可以這麼說。

However, if we don't get stimulus, if we have coveted cases continue to rise, um, at record levels, then that's gonna put further pressure on the market.

然而，如果我們沒有得到刺激，如果我們有貪圖的情況下，繼續上升，嗯，在創紀錄的水準，那麼這是要去把市場的進一步壓力。

The vaccine has already been priced in for 2021 as well as earnings expectations have been priced in for 2021.

疫苗已經定價為2021年，盈利預期也已經定價為2021年。

What hasn't really gotten totally priced in is how much stimulus.

還沒有真正得到完全定價的是多少刺激措施。

So we're going to get Andi.

所以我們要去找安迪。

That's the important wild card right now.

這就是現在重要的外卡。

Alright, Great.

好吧，太好了。

Thank you.

謝謝你了

That's Kevin Nicholson.

那是凱文-尼科爾森

He is the co chief investment officer off global fixed income at Riverfront Investment Group I'm Conway G kittens, and this is Reuters.

他是Riverfront投資集團全球固定收益的聯合首席投資官 我是Conway G小貓，這裡是路透社。